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31-10-2018, 21:24   #16
mickger844posts
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mickger844posts _______ 7.7 _ 16.1 _ -4.4 _ 121 _ 93 _ 60 kts, 30th
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31-10-2018, 21:52   #17
Joe Public
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Joe Public __________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -6.2 _ 134 _ 89 __ 64 knots 21st
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31-10-2018, 22:25   #18
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Tae laidir _______ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ --5.6 _ 128 _ 95 __ 65 knots 24th
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31-10-2018, 23:25   #19
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Skinner_____7.1_____17.1_____-5.5_____90_____100______59(03/11)
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01-11-2018, 00:05   #20
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Jpmarn________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _ --5.5 _ 140 _ 90 __ 60 knots 3rd.
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01-11-2018, 07:36   #21
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JCXBXC_______ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _ 58 kts_17th

Didn't get it in on time.....again.

Not that late at least.

(Last minute edit, before the turn of the hour).

Last edited by JCX BXC; 01-11-2018 at 07:39.
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01-11-2018, 08:22   #22
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Rikand ____ 7.5 ____ 16.5 ____ -5.5 _____ 90 _____ 120 _____ 65 kts, 27th
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01-11-2018, 08:22   #23
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Rameire _______ 7.0 _ 16.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 98 __ 56 kts 20th
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01-11-2018, 15:13   #24
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Dacogawa _______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -6.4 _ 150 _ 95 __ 72 kts 15th

Sorry for the lateness! went all out to try to make up the penalty...
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01-11-2018, 20:46   #25
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no time for Boards this week , forgot all about it
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01-11-2018, 23:11   #26
M.T. Cranium
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Table of forecasts for November 2018


FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust (kts), date


sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _--4.1 _ 135 _ 090 _____ 52 ______ 7th

200motels ___________7.8 _ 15.7 _--3.5 _ 121 _ 092 _____ 56 ______ 3rd

Tae laidir ____________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _--5.6 _ 128 _ 095 _____ 65 _____ 24th

mickger844posts ______7.7 _ 16.1 _--4.4 _ 121 _ 093 _____ 60 _____ 30th

Pauldry _____________ 7.5 _ 17.8 _--5.7 _ 125 _ 101 _____ 75 _____ 30th

DOCARCH ___________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _--4.3 _ 132 _ 103 _____ 63 _____ 22nd

Rikand ____ (-2) ______7.5 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 65 _____ 27th

Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 7.4 _ 17.9 _--6.4 _ 150 _ 095 _____ 72 _____ 15th

Kindred_Spirit ________7.4 _ 16.2 _--5.2 _ 125 _ 098 _____ 61 _____ 29th

sunflower3 __________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _--5.1 _ 111 _ 095 _____ 52 ______ 3rd

JCXBXC ____ (-2) ____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _--5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 58 _____ 17th

waterways __________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _--6.1 _ 142 _ 092 _____ 72 _____ 27th


Con Sensus _________ 7.3 _ 16.2 _--5.3 _ 121 _ 097 _____ 61 _____ 3, 7, 30**

Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _--5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 72 _____ any*


Artane2002 __________7.2 _ 15.9 _--4.5 _ 120 _ 095 _____ 60 ______ 7th

MrSkinner ___________ 7.1 _ 17.1 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 59 ______ 3rd

Rameire _____ (-2) ___ 7.0 _ 16.5 _--5.8 _ 108 _ 098 _____ 56 _____ 20th

adam240610 _________7.0 _ 16.1 _--5.2 _ 113 _ 105 _____ 54 ______ 3rd

john mac ____ (-6) ___ 7.0 _ 15.9 _--4.7 _ 107 _ 097 ______ 65 _____ 25th

Dasa29 _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _--5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 60 _____ 19th

Bsal ________________7.0 _ 15.5 _--5.0 _ 110 _ 097 _____ 68 ______ 7th

Joe Public ___________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _--6.2 _ 134 _ 089 _____ 64 _____ 21st

M.T. Cranium ________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 70 _____ 29th

sdanseo _____________6.8 _ 17.0 _--5.0 _ 115 _ 088 _____ 61 ______ 3rd

Jpmarn _____________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 140 _ 090 _____ 60 ______ 3rd

BLIZZARD7 __________ 6.3 _ 14.7 _--7.7 _ 127 _ 110 _____73 _____ 13th

____________________________________________________________

* for the normal date, there probably is no real difference in frequency from start to middle to end of November for a strong wind event, so Normal will just get one point.

** Con Sensus will be stuck with the majority opinion and ride along with that for points, the three dates indicated will be scored 3, 2 or 1 if within one day, otherwise no points for Con on the date.

The group consensus with all 24 forecasters having checked in, seems to be for an average sort of month temperature and sunshine related, not going to extremes either way, but rather wet, and for November, not awfully windy.

Reality? That could be something entirely different.
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03-11-2018, 11:14   #27
Joe Public
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Got a -5C at Mt. Dillon last night to kick off the month.
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03-11-2018, 16:29   #28
M.T. Cranium
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On 2nd, MIN of --5.0 (Mountdillon), MAX of 14.6 (Newport) and wind gust to 46 knots (Belmullet).

All but the MIN have probably been eclipsed today.

Will count 2nd-3rd as one event in the bonus round, same with any future wind events that span two consecutive days from one system. So if the 2nd turns up in second place overall, that will be ignored and two other events will be counted for scoring purposes.
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04-11-2018, 15:05   #29
M.T. Cranium
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Max wind gust on 3rd only 47 knots (Belmullet also), so wide open now for later guesses.

MAX temp 16.3 at Shannon.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 05-11-2018 at 01:02. Reason: max temp 16.3
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05-11-2018, 19:56   #30
M.T. Cranium
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This is how the maximum gust forecasts break down ... I listed the forecasters for all but the 3rd, if you're not among those listed then you're among the six already holding on to a possible 1-3 points for date (the event underperformed slightly so I'm not sure if it will even make top three).

DATE _ n __ forecasts

3rd __ 6 __ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47)

7th __ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots

13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7

15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

23rd __

24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

26th __

27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

28th __

29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

... so we can continue to keep track of what happens using this template later in the month ...

It makes sense that the forecast speeds tend to increase later in the month since it was generally thought at the time most forecasts were made that something around 50 or higher would occur on the 3rd. On today's 12z GFS run, 6th to 8th (for 7th forecasts) look rather tame, could hit 45 knots, stronger on the 9th (55-60?) which is still closer to 7th than next guess of 13th. After that, timing is probably not very likely to be that accurate but seeing a minor peak on 13th (under 50 at this early stage), and after that rather light winds to 20th when they might pick up again. Just beyond the 16 days of the GFS it starts to look quite windy.

So these mid-month forecasters will be looking for a bit of change to those predictions and the end of month forecasts might be favoured if this (the above scenario) is all that happens in the first three weeks.
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