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November 2018 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 30-10-2018 6:31am
    #1
    Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    1. Predict the "IMT" (Irish Mean Temperature), an average for five locations, Claremorris, Mullingar, Casement, Oak Park and Shannon, for November. The average for 1981-2010 was 7.2 C.

    2. Predict the MAX, highest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    3. Predict the MIN, lowest temperature at any of 25 reporting stations as listed on the met.ie website under "yesterday's weather" during the month of November.

    4. Predict the PRC, average precip for eleven locations including the five listed above in addition to Malin Head, Ballyhaise, Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Cork and Valentia, as a percentage of normal (which would be 100%).

    5. Predict the SUN, average sunshine for six locations (Belmullet, Casement, Dublin, Shannon, Cork, Valentia) as a percentage of normal.

    6. BONUS: Predict the strongest wind gust to be observed at the 25 stations (not offshore buoys or lighthouses etc), in knots, and the date that it will be observed. Seven points for the wind speed and three for the date, with second and third highest events counting for two and one point each. To score the points, you will need to be within the closest three forecasts or within one day (either or). A superbonus is available (7+3 gets 2, either 6 + 3 or 7 + 2 gets one superbonus point). Tied dates (e.g., Malin Head 62 knots one day, Mace Head 62 knots a different day) both count for whatever rank, and if 1st, there will be 2nd and 3rd added, if 2nd, then 3rd added (although it would be 4th if you follow my drift).

    Points for the dates will be given to at least 15 entrants so I will make it as lenient as it needs to be to get some points distributed.

    Deadline for entries, as always, 0300h Thursday November 1st, and late penalties to apply after that time.

    Good luck !!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 12,556 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _______ 7.9 _ 16.0 _ -4.1 _ 135 _ 90 _ 52 kts, 7th

    Hopefully reverse psychology will work.

    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭ sdanseo


    sdanseo _______ 6.8 _ 17.0 _ -5.0 _ 115 _ 88 _ 61 kts, 3rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,714 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Bsal _______ 7.0 _ 15.5 _ -5.0 _ 110 _ 97 _ 68 kts, 7th


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭ 200motels


    200motels
    7.8 _ 15.7 _ -3.5 _ 121 _ 92 _ 56 kts, 3rd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    This one is going to be really tough!

    Artane2002 _______ 7.2 _ 15.9_ -4.5 _ 120 _ 95 _ 60 kts, 7th


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  • Registered Users Posts: 165 ✭✭ sunflower3


    Sunflower3 _________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _ -5.1 _ 111 _ 95 _ 52 kts, 3rd Nov


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    MTC __________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _ --5.5 _ 120 _ 115 __ 70 knots 29th

    Normal ________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _ --5.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 72 knots (date)*

    * for the normal date, there probably is no real difference in frequency from start to middle to end of November for a strong wind event, so Normal will just get one point.

    Con Sensus will be stuck with the majority opinion and ride along with that for points.

    Will not be that surprised if the IMT starts out quite high at times then falls away steadily after 15th but not seeing too much evidence yet of sustained cold, just perhaps one brief cold snap where the --5.5 might come into play.


  • Registered Users Posts: 748 ✭✭✭ adam240610


    adam240610______7.0_16.1_-5.2_113_105_54kt 3rd Nov


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,852 ✭✭✭ pauldry


    Pauldry_____7.5_17.8_-5.7_125_101_75kt 30Nov


  • Registered Users Posts: 458 ✭✭ dasa29


    Dasa29 _________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _ -5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _ 60 kts, 19th Nov


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  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭ DOCARCH


    DOCARCH _______ 7.5 _ 16.9 _ -4.3 _ 132 _ 103 __ 63 knots 22nd


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,894 ✭✭✭ BLIZZARD7


    BLIZZARD7_______ 6.3_ 14.7 _ -7.7_ 127_ 110__ 73 knots 13th


  • Registered Users Posts: 317 ✭✭ kindredspirit


    Kindred_Spirit ___ 7.4 ___ 16.2 ___ -5.2 ___ 125 ___ 98 ___ 61 knots ___ 29th.


  • Registered Users Posts: 351 ✭✭ waterways


    waterways ________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _ -6.1 _ 142 _ 92 __ 72 knots 27th


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 4,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭ mickger844posts


    mickger844posts _______ 7.7 _ 16.1 _ -4.4 _ 121 _ 93 _ 60 kts, 30th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Joe Public __________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _ -6.2 _ 134 _ 89 __ 64 knots 21st


  • Registered Users Posts: 623 ✭✭✭ Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______ 7.7 _ 16.3 _ --5.6 _ 128 _ 95 __ 65 knots 24th


  • Registered Users Posts: 360 ✭✭ mrskinner


    Skinner_____7.1_____17.1_____-5.5_____90_____100______59(03/11)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,409 ✭✭✭ Jpmarn


    Jpmarn________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _ --5.5 _ 140 _ 90 __ 60 knots 3rd.


  • Registered Users Posts: 17,665 ✭✭✭✭ JCX BXC


    JCXBXC_______ 7.3 _ 16.0 _ -5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _ 58 kts_17th

    Didn't get it in on time.....again.

    Not that late at least.

    (Last minute edit, before the turn of the hour).


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  • Registered Users Posts: 19,563 ✭✭✭✭ Rikand


    Rikand ____ 7.5 ____ 16.5 ____ -5.5 _____ 90 _____ 120 _____ 65 kts, 27th


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,760 ✭✭✭ rameire


    Rameire _______ 7.0 _ 16.5 _ -5.8 _ 108 _ 98 __ 56 kts 20th


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,773 ✭✭✭ dacogawa


    Dacogawa _______ 7.4 _ 17.9 _ -6.4 _ 150 _ 95 __ 72 kts 15th

    Sorry for the lateness! went all out to try to make up the penalty...


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭ John mac


    john mac_______ 7.0 _ 15.9 _ -4.7 _ 107 _ 97 _ 65 kts, 25th

    no time for Boards this week , forgot all about it :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for November 2018


    FORECASTER ________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN __ Max gust (kts), date


    sryanbruen __________ 7.9 _ 16.0 _--4.1 _ 135 _ 090 _____ 52 ______ 7th

    200motels ___________7.8 _ 15.7 _--3.5 _ 121 _ 092 _____ 56 ______ 3rd

    Tae laidir ____________ 7.7 _ 16.3 _--5.6 _ 128 _ 095 _____ 65 _____ 24th

    mickger844posts ______7.7 _ 16.1 _--4.4 _ 121 _ 093 _____ 60 _____ 30th

    Pauldry _____________ 7.5 _ 17.8 _--5.7 _ 125 _ 101 _____ 75 _____ 30th

    DOCARCH ___________ 7.5 _ 16.9 _--4.3 _ 132 _ 103 _____ 63 _____ 22nd

    Rikand ____ (-2) ______7.5 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 65 _____ 27th

    Dacogawa __ (-4) ____ 7.4 _ 17.9 _--6.4 _ 150 _ 095 _____ 72 _____ 15th

    Kindred_Spirit ________7.4 _ 16.2 _--5.2 _ 125 _ 098 _____ 61 _____ 29th

    sunflower3 __________ 7.3 _ 16.1 _--5.1 _ 111 _ 095 _____ 52 ______ 3rd

    JCXBXC ____ (-2) ____ 7.3 _ 16.0 _--5.1 _ 120 _ 110 _____ 58 _____ 17th

    waterways __________ 7.3 _ 15.4 _--6.1 _ 142 _ 092 _____ 72 _____ 27th


    Con Sensus _________ 7.3 _ 16.2 _--5.3 _ 121 _ 097 _____ 61 _____ 3, 7, 30**

    Normal _____________ 7.2 _ 17.5 _--5.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 72 _____ any*


    Artane2002 __________7.2 _ 15.9 _--4.5 _ 120 _ 095 _____ 60 ______ 7th

    MrSkinner ___________ 7.1 _ 17.1 _--5.5 _ 090 _ 100 _____ 59 ______ 3rd

    Rameire _____ (-2) ___ 7.0 _ 16.5 _--5.8 _ 108 _ 098 _____ 56 _____ 20th

    adam240610 _________7.0 _ 16.1 _--5.2 _ 113 _ 105 _____ 54 ______ 3rd

    john mac ____ (-6) ___ 7.0 _ 15.9 _--4.7 _ 107 _ 097 ______ 65 _____ 25th

    Dasa29 _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 _--5.5 _ 105 _ 105 _____ 60 _____ 19th

    Bsal ________________7.0 _ 15.5 _--5.0 _ 110 _ 097 _____ 68 ______ 7th

    Joe Public ___________ 6.9 _ 16.9 _--6.2 _ 134 _ 089 _____ 64 _____ 21st

    M.T. Cranium ________ 6.9 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 120 _ 115 _____ 70 _____ 29th

    sdanseo _____________6.8 _ 17.0 _--5.0 _ 115 _ 088 _____ 61 ______ 3rd

    Jpmarn _____________ 6.6 _ 16.5 _--5.5 _ 140 _ 090 _____ 60 ______ 3rd

    BLIZZARD7 __________ 6.3 _ 14.7 _--7.7 _ 127 _ 110 _____73 _____ 13th

    ____________________________________________________________

    * for the normal date, there probably is no real difference in frequency from start to middle to end of November for a strong wind event, so Normal will just get one point.

    ** Con Sensus will be stuck with the majority opinion and ride along with that for points, the three dates indicated will be scored 3, 2 or 1 if within one day, otherwise no points for Con on the date.

    The group consensus with all 24 forecasters having checked in, seems to be for an average sort of month temperature and sunshine related, not going to extremes either way, but rather wet, and for November, not awfully windy.

    Reality? That could be something entirely different. :)


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,745 ✭✭✭ Joe Public


    Got a -5C at Mt. Dillon last night to kick off the month.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    On 2nd, MIN of --5.0 (Mountdillon), MAX of 14.6 (Newport) and wind gust to 46 knots (Belmullet).

    All but the MIN have probably been eclipsed today.

    Will count 2nd-3rd as one event in the bonus round, same with any future wind events that span two consecutive days from one system. So if the 2nd turns up in second place overall, that will be ignored and two other events will be counted for scoring purposes.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Max wind gust on 3rd only 47 knots (Belmullet also), so wide open now for later guesses.

    MAX temp 16.3 at Shannon.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    This is how the maximum gust forecasts break down ... I listed the forecasters for all but the 3rd, if you're not among those listed then you're among the six already holding on to a possible 1-3 points for date (the event underperformed slightly so I'm not sure if it will even make top three).

    DATE _ n __ forecasts

    3rd __ 6 __ 52 to 61 knots (actual was 47)

    7th __ 3 __ 52 (sryanbruen), 60 (Artane2002) and 68 (Bsal) knots

    13th __ 1 __ 73 knots __ BLIZZARD7

    15th __ 1 __ 72 knots __ dacogawa

    17th __ 1 __ 58 knots __ JCXBXC

    19th __ 1 __ 60 knots __ Dasa29

    20th __ 1 __ 56 knots __ Rameire

    21st __ 1 __ 64 knots __ Joe Public

    22nd __ 1 __ 63 knots __ DOCARCH

    23rd __

    24th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ Tae laidir

    25th __ 1 __ 65 knots __ John mac

    26th __

    27th __ 2 __ 65 (rikand) and 72 (waterways) knots

    28th __

    29th __ 2 __ 61 (kindred spirit) and 70 (M.T. Cranium) knots

    30th __ 2 __ 60 (mickger844posts) and 75 (Pauldry) knots

    ... so we can continue to keep track of what happens using this template later in the month ...

    It makes sense that the forecast speeds tend to increase later in the month since it was generally thought at the time most forecasts were made that something around 50 or higher would occur on the 3rd. On today's 12z GFS run, 6th to 8th (for 7th forecasts) look rather tame, could hit 45 knots, stronger on the 9th (55-60?) which is still closer to 7th than next guess of 13th. After that, timing is probably not very likely to be that accurate but seeing a minor peak on 13th (under 50 at this early stage), and after that rather light winds to 20th when they might pick up again. Just beyond the 16 days of the GFS it starts to look quite windy.

    So these mid-month forecasters will be looking for a bit of change to those predictions and the end of month forecasts might be favoured if this (the above scenario) is all that happens in the first three weeks.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,200 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    So a max gust of 46 knots on 6th (Roches Point) leaves the 7th guesses in second place for now but they still have the edge with the 9th being closer to them than to anyone else.


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