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30-10-2018, 15:26   #46
sryanbruen
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Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Monday lows not quite a match for the MIN, Tuesday (today) I noted -4 C at Dublin so this could produce a rival for the --4.5 we currently have.

IMT after 29 days was 10.0 C even. Drop did not quite match the raw math (day averaged about 4 C, should have dropped 0.2) so might have been rounding issues at individual stations. Will see what it hits after today and report on that tomorrow.
It got down to -4.3c according to Ogimet synops which was a new October record low for the station.
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30-10-2018, 16:27   #47
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Looks like this October will be one of those months where the mean doesn't tell the full story... it looks like we'll finish below average but you wouldn't know how warm it was at the start from that.
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31-10-2018, 07:48   #48
M.T. Cranium
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New MIN of --4.7 at Dublin on 30th.

Now it's on to the bonus question, today's lowest MAX ... currently the lowest temperature is 2 degrees at Moore Park. Lots of fairly sound looking estimates in the contest table of entries.
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31-10-2018, 22:17   #49
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Last day min max appears to be in Malin Head or Knock around 7.5c to 8c
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01-11-2018, 14:27   #50
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Yesterday's low max
Malin Head 7.7
Knock. 8.0
Ballyhaise. 8.5
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01-11-2018, 17:50   #51
M.T. Cranium
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Okay then, here's some final values from monthly and daily sections, to be confirmed from the MS tomorrow.

IMT finished on 9.6 C.

MAX 21.1, MIN --4.7

PRC 62% of normal

SUN estimated 120%

Low max 31st as reported Malin Head 7.7 C (scores three)

Next three lowest Knock (8.0), Ballyhaise (8.5), Mullingar (8.8) -- these score two

colder than Gurteen (9.8) also include Athenry, Casement, Dublin, Dunsany, Finner, Markree, Mountdillon, Oak Park, Phoenix Park

-- any of those will score one point. Johnstown Castle was equal at 9.8.

______________________________________________________________

I will post some provisional scores soon, as I think they will survive to be edited tomorrow if necessary, or the title can be edited if not.

Adam240610 was right on the money for the IMT.

Closest to the MAX was MTC (0.4 high).

Closest to the MIN was a tie between Kindred Spirit (0.2 high) and Joe Public (0.2 low).

Best we had for PRC was 85%, 23% higher than outcome, from DOCARCH, 200motels and BLIZZARD7.

SUN was (subject to review) forecast correctly by rikand (120%).

Closest to the bonus temperature (7.7) was Rameire at 7.9 C.

The correct location was guessed by 200motels, Pauldry and waterways, although they all figured on a mild pattern where Malin Head would be the logical choice for coldest max.

The closest forecast to what actually happened at the locations chosen was +0.2 at Mullingar (from Adam240610) although Con Sensus came closer (+0.1). Who needs a supercomputer for long-range forecasting when there is the boards forecast contest?

Next closest was at Ballyhaise. MTC was +0.3 and sdanseo was --0.4 compared to the actual of 8.5 ... mickger844posts matched the latter with an error of +0.4 at Mullingar. Tae laidir also matched it at Knock (+0.4). Johnmac joined this group with an error of +0.4 for Mountdillon.

Well done everybody, now it's on to the provisional scoring ...
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01-11-2018, 18:46   #52
M.T. Cranium
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Confirmed scoring for October 2018


FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Low max 31st ___ TOTAL


Kindred Spirit ___________ 22 _ 10 _ 19 _ 11 _ 07 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 __ 79

Rikand _________________21 _ 11 _ 14 _ 12 _ 10 _____ 6 _ 1 ______ 75

Adam240610 ____________25 _ 10 _ 10 _ 12 _ 05 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 69

JCX_BXC _______________ 21 _ 16 _ 11 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 1 ______ 68

Jpmarn ________________ 24 _ 03 _ 11 _ 12 _ 09 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 67

Rameire ________________24 _ 09 _ 09 _ 13 _ 04 _____ 7 _ 0 ______ 66

sryanbruen _____________ 23 _ 07 _ 13 _ 11 _ 05 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 66

200motels ______________ 20 _ 17 _ 05 _ 14 _ 04 _____ 1 _ 3 ______ 64


Con Sensus ______________22 _ 10 _ 09 _ 10 _ 06 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 64


Dacogawa ______________ 22 _ 12 _ 09 _ 08 _ 02 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 __ 63

M.T. Cranium ____________15 _ 18 _ 12 _ 07 _ 04 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 63

pauldry ________________ 21 _ 12 _ 08 _ 12 _ 04 _____ 2 _ 3 ______ 62

Joe Public ______________ 20 _ 01 _ 19 _ 13 _ 05 _____ 3 _ 1 ______ 62

waterways ______________23 _ 08 _ 11 _ 09 _ 07 _____ 0 _ 3 ______ 61

sdanseo ________________19 _ 11 _ 10 _ 02 _ 06 _____ 7 _ 2 _+1 ___58

DOCARCH ______________ 13 _ 14 _ 02 _ 14 _ 08 _____ 4 _ 2 ______ 57

sunflower3 ______________22 _ 10 _ 09 _ 06 _ 04 _____ 3 _ 2 ______ 56


___ NormaL ____________ 20 _ 13 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 3 ______ 56


BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) ____17 _ 01 _ 17 _ 14 _ 07 _____ 1 _ 1 _ 58-3=55

MrSkinner _______________22 _ 10 _ 00 _ 09 _ 06 _____ 5 _ 2 ______ 54

mickger844posts _________ 16 _ 07 _ 03 _ 13 _ 08 _____ 4 _ 2 ______ 53

Tae laidir _______________ 20 _ 02 _ 10 _ 08 _ 05 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 53

Artane2002 _____________ 22 _ 01 _ 09 _ 06 _ 07 _____ 3 _ 2 ______ 50

Bsal ____________________22 _ 02 _ 01 _ 08 _ 05 _____ 6 _ 2 ______ 46

john mac ________________23 _ 02 _ 03 _ 07 _ 06 _____ 4 _ 1 ______ 46

dasa29 _________________ 24 _ 00 _ 01 _ 06 _ 06 _____ 2 _ 2 ______ 41

_______________________________________________________________

MAX scores were boosted by 2 points, with any left at zero assessed for rank to receive 0, 1 or 2. MIN scores were boosted by one point with the same procedure for zero scores (0 or 1).

PRC required the minimum progression boost. Scoring differentials were preserved by adding six to all raw scores.

Congrats to kindred spirit and rikand for leading the pack in October ... the scores are probably final unless I find something unexpected in the MS tomorrow. After checking that, I will post the annual update.


(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ____ Low max 31st


DOCARCH ______________ 10.8 _ 20.3 _ -2.8 _ 085 _ 110 _____ 9.3 Ballyhaise

M.T. Cranium ____________10.6 _ 21.5 _ -3.8 _ 105 _ 090 _____ 8.8 Ballyhaise

mickger844posts _________10.5 _ 19.6 _ -2.9 _ 087 _ 110 _____ 9.2 Mullingar

sdanseo ________________10.2 _ 20.0 _ -3.6 _ 110 _ 101 _____ 8.1 Ballyhaise

200motels ______________ 10.1 _ 20.6 _ -3.1 _ 085 _ 090 ____ 12.0 Malin Head


NormaL ________________ 10.1 _ 20.2 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 (loc'n by climatology)


Tae laidir _______________ 10.1 _ 18.8 _ -3.6 _ 103 _ 093 _____ 8.4 Knock

JCX_BXC _______________ 10.0 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 6.0 Gurteen

pauldry ________________ 10.0 _ 20.1 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 092 ____ 11.0 Malin Head

Rikand _________________10.0 _ 20.0 _ -4.0 _ 090 _ 120 _____ 7.0 Mt. Dillon

Dacogawa _______________ 9.9 _ 20.1 _ -3.5 _ 102 _ 078 _____ 8.1 Mullingar

MrSkinner _______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -0.9 _ 099 _ 099 _____ 9.0 Knock

sunflower3 ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 090 ____ 10.0 Mullingar


Con Sensus ______________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -3.5 _ 097 _ 099 _____ 8.9 Mullingar**


Kindred Spirit ____________ 9.9 _ 19.9 _ -4.5 _ 093 _ 103 _____ 8.0 Mullingar

Bsal ____________________9.9 _ 19.0 _ -2.5 _ 101 _ 095 _____ 7.0 Mullingar

waterways _______________9.8 _ 19.7 _ -5.7 _ 098 _ 103 ____ 14.1 Malin Head

john mac ________________9.8 _ 18.9 _ -2.9 _ 103 _ 098 _____ 9.5 Mt. Dillon

Rameire _________________9.7 _ 19.8 _ -3.5 _ 089 _ 089 _____ 7.9 Mace Head

Adam240610 _____________9.6 _ 19.9 _ -3.6 _ 090 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Mullingar

Jpmarn _________________ 9.5 _ 19.2 _ -3.7 _ 090 _ 115 _____ 7.0 Knock

dasa29 __________________9.5 _ 17.5 _ -2.5 _ 105 _ 100 ____ 11.0 Mullingar

sryanbruen ______________ 9.4 _ 19.6 _ -3.9 _ 095 _ 095 _____ 9.0 Knock

Artane2002 ______________ 9.3 _ 18.7 _ -3.5 _ 110 _ 105 ____ 10.2 Knock

Joe Public ________________9.1 _ 18.7 _ -4.9 _ 088 _ 093 _____ 5.8 Dunsany

BLIZZARD7 _____ (-3) _____ 8.8 _ 18.7 _ -5.0 _ 085 _ 103 _____ 2.3 Mount Dillion

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-11-2018 at 15:54. Reason: scoring is now confirmed
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02-11-2018, 01:08   #53
M.T. Cranium
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Here's the annual update, the scoring for October was correct so this is now confirmed. Checking the additions while in edit mode.

Annual Scoring Summary for 2018 (Jan to Oct)

(8/10)
rank _FORECASTER ______ JAN_FEB_MAR_APR_MAY_JUN_JUL_AUG_SEP_OCT _ TOTAL <--rank _ best 8/10

01 _ Pauldry_____________ 73 _ 58 _ 89 _ 48 _ 76 _ 59 _ 78 _ 62 _ 66 _ 62 __ 671 __ 01 ____ 565
02 _ waterways __________ 81 _ 34 _ 51 _ 73 _ 76 _ 46 _ 83 _ 64 _ 64 _ 61 __ 633 __ 04 ____ 553

(03) Con Sensus _________ 73 _ 67 _ 69 _ 51 _ 71 _ 54 _ 84 _ 56 _ 59 _ 64 __ 648 __(02) ____ 543

03 _ sryanbruen __________56 _ 71 _ 65 _ 60 _ 74 _ 46 _ 85 _ 65 _ 36 _ 66 __ 624 __ 06 ____ 542

(04) NormaL ____________ 75 _ 52 _ 48 _ 71 _ 63 _ 31 _ 59 _ 85 _ 79 _ 56 __ 619 __(07) ____ 540

04 _ Rameire ____________ 52 _ 56 _ 67 _ 49 _ 76 _ 44 _ 88 _ 67 _ 67 _ 66 __ 632 __ 05 ____ 539
05 _ Dacogawa ___________71 _ 67 _ 70 _ 67 _ 63 _ 52 _ 71 _ 50 _ 65 _ 63 __ 639 __ 03 ____ 537
06 _ Rikand ______________66 _ 64 _ 62 _ 61 _ 74 _ 65 _ 65 _ 51 _ 59 _ 75 __ 642 __ 02 ____ 532
07 _ JCXBXC _____________34 _ 72 _ 54 _ 43 _ 77 _ 56 _ 78 _ 75 _ 41 _ 68 __ 598 __ 11 ____ 523
08 _ DOCARCH ___________63 _ 62 _ 75 _ 61 _ 68 _ 42 _ 69 _ 47 _ 67 _ 57 __ 611 __ 09 ____ 522
09 _ M.T. Cranium ________ 60 _ 45 _ 52 _ 56 _ 86 _ 49 _ 77 _ 50 _ 75 _ 63 __ 613 __ 08 ____ 519
10 _ Joe Public ___________ 35 _ 62 _ 48 _ 81 _ 61 _ 66 _ 63 _ 56 _ 67 _ 62 __ 601 __ 10 ____ 518
11 _ BLIZZARD7 __________27 _ 73 _ 46 _ 70 _ 92 _ 52 _ 48 _ 46 _ 81 _ 55 __ 590 __ 12 ____ 517
12 _ Jpmarn _____________ 71 _ 61 _ 49 _ 57 _ 68 _ 60 _ 81 _ 51 _ 50 _ 67 __ 615 __ 07 ____ 516
13 _ MrSkinner ___________73 _ 64 _ 72 _ 42 _ 69 _ 36 _ 68 _ 66 _ 41 _ 54 __ 585 __ 13 ____ 508
14 _ Kindred Spirit ________ 59 _ 56 _ 55 _ 28 _ 66 _ 57 _ 77 _ 48 _ 47 _ 79 __ 572 __ 16 ____ 497
15_ Tae laidir ____________ 78 _ 53 _ 63 _ 47 _ 61 _ 52 _ 67 _ 69 _ --- _ 53 __ 543 __ 18 ____ 491
16 _ mickger844posts ______75 _ 77 _ 69 _ 42 _ 54 _ 44 _ 62 _ 49 _ 50 _ 53 __ 575 __ 15 ____ 489
17 _ sunflower3 __________ 68 _ 56 _ 63 _ 58 _ 57 _ 41 _ 65 _ 52 _ 64 _ 56 __ 580 __ 14 ____ 487
18 _ sdanseo _____________45 _ 61 _ 57 _ 52 _ 57 _ 64 _ 65 _ --- _ 57 _ 58 __ 516 __ 22 ____ 471
19 _ 200motels ___________36 _ 65 _ 47 _ 49 _ 85 _ 32 _ 62 _ 37 _ 55 _ 64 __ 532 __ 19 ____ 464
20 _ john mac ____________48 _ 58 _ 58 _ 42 _ 63 _ 39 _ 67 _ 72 _ 51 _ 46 __ 544 __ 17 ____ 463
21 _ dasa29 _____________ 69 _ 40 _ 83 _ 43 _ 54 _ 35 _ 57 _ 41 _ 67 _ 41 __ 530 __ 20 ____ 455
22 _ Bsal ________________63 _ 49 _ 71 _ 38 _ 56 _ 34 _ 71 _ 44 _ 50 _ 46 __ 522 __ 21 ____ 450

23 _ Adam240610 ________ --- _ --- _ 56 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ 64 _ 72 _ 51 _ 69 __ 312
24 _ Lumi _______________ 54 _ 54 _ 62 _ --- _ 77 _ 55 _ --- _--- _ --- _ --- __ 302
25 _ Artane2002 __________--- _ --- _ ---_ 59 _ 57 _ 47 _ --- _ --- _ 50 _ 50 __ 263
________________________________________________________________________________________

No changes in the top two, then we have sryanbruen making a move through the logjam of Con Sensus and NormaL, and small exchanges of positions in the chase pack, Kindred Spirit moved up four ranks with his top score in October.

Ranks for the 8/10 portion are the first number in each row.

Ranks for the all score portion (most have 10/10 there) can be seen after the total scores.

Ranks assigned to Con Sensus and NormaL do not affect your ranks, those are the ranks they would have if they were contest entrants.

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 02-11-2018 at 16:07.
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02-11-2018, 16:13   #54
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All scoring is now confirmed, the sunshine estimate was close enough at 122%, within margin of error for 120% and everything else looked the same. The October scoring was relatively uniform and nobody failed to use their October score in the best 8/10.

The annual scoring has been added, and I've checked all the additions and subtractions to confirm the numbers there. It has become quite a large chase pack with only 15 points separating 7th and 13th places.
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03-11-2018, 11:34   #55
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Sun needs to be scored out of 15 or 20
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