Storm Atiyah Sunday - Monday, 8th - 9th Dec 2019

Oneiric 3 · 06-12-2019 3:29pm

endainoz wrote: »

Good for you, and if you can read a forecast then warnings shouldn't matter to you.

And sad for you if you can't.

And your response did nothing to address any of my points.

Snow Garden · 06-12-2019 3:47pm

endainoz wrote: »

We'll have great fun in North Clare on Sunday so! The swell during the afternoon will be impressive.

Doolin cliff walk would be class!

Oneiric 3 · 06-12-2019 4:00pm

If the latest ECMWF is correct, then away from the west coast, it would be the north and east that would fall under the 'orange' warning.

Thewife · 06-12-2019 4:48pm

I’m going to first apologise for the question I’m about to ask , I’m aware these kind of questions can be annoying so I am sorry but I’m desperate .
In due to land in cork at about 1pm Sunday and am just wondering if any of you experts here can advise me if you think the timing of this flight might be ok to land before the bad winds arrive ? Obviously ryanair will not give details until the last minute so I want to be fully prepared with a plan b ! Thanks all

GoneHome · 06-12-2019 4:56pm

Thewife wrote: »

Obviously ryanair will not give details until the last minute so I want to be fully prepared with a plan b !

For good reason, nobody can predict with that level of accuracy if a plane will land at a certain time or not in stormy conditions.

Darwin · 06-12-2019 5:02pm

@Thewife still too early to say, at the moment it looks like gusts of up to 40knots from a west/south west direction look likely around that time (compared to a max of around 55knots later on Sunday). Seems to tie in with what met eireann are saying with respect to the arrival of strong winds later Sunday. I would guess landings will be possible in those conditions, but I'm not a pilot. Whether your plane will be on time nobody knows.

Thewife · 06-12-2019 5:21pm

Thanks for your reply I appreciate it . I suppose what I was really wondering was if flights are usually cancelled when certain warnings are made , i know a red warning would mean airport closures etc I wondered if similar applied to orange warnings .

Darwin wrote: »

@Thewife still too early to say, at the moment it looks like gusts of up to 40knots from a west/south west direction look likely around that time (compared to a max of around 55knots later on Sunday). Seems to tie in with what met eireann are saying with respect to the arrival of strong winds later Sunday. I would guess landings will be possible in those conditions, but I'm not a pilot. Whether your plane will be on time nobody knows.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 5:42pm

ARPEGE 12Z back showing very strong winds, probably the strongest so far. Would probably bring more counties into Orange warning levels and showing extremely high winds in Atlantic coastal counties. All eyes on the ECM 12Z out after 18.00

Storm 10 · 06-12-2019 5:47pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ARPEGE 12Z back showing very strong winds, probably the strongest so far. Would probably bring more counties into Orange warning levels and showing extremely high winds in Atlantic coastal counties. All eyes on the ECM 12Z out after 18.00

Could this go Red big shopping day on the 8th

endainoz · 06-12-2019 6:08pm

Storm 10 wrote: »

Could this go Red big shopping day on the 8th

Ah the 8th isn't much of a shopping day anymore, particularly not on a Sunday. The 8th used to be a holy day (remember those?!) So (mainly rural) folk used to take it off as a big shopping day, but the likes of black Friday and Cyber Monday and all that rubbish seems to have taken over these days.

Little snowy old me · 06-12-2019 6:50pm

I'm predicting the highest gust will be Belmullet with 115kmph.

squarecircles · 06-12-2019 7:01pm

I'm predicting 2000kmh Mace Head.

Darwin · 06-12-2019 7:07pm

Little snowy old me wrote: »

I'm predicting the highest gust will be Belmullet with 115kmph.

I'm as inland as you can get, and the Ventusky ICON model is showing 115Km/h for my location at the peak on Sunday. I would expect Belmullet to be a tad more than that

I usually find the Hirlam FMI model to be pretty accurate, let's see what it comes up with later (only goes out to T+48 hours)

JanuarySnowstor · 06-12-2019 7:10pm

Looks more south and severe on ecm.
Pretty sure cork will soon be added to the orange!!
Not far off red in the far West

Little snowy old me · 06-12-2019 7:11pm

Darwin wrote: »

I'm as inland as you can get, and the Ventusky ICON model is showing 115Km/h for my location at the peak on Sunday. I would expect Belmullet to be a tad more than that I usually find the Hirlam FMI model to be pretty accurate, let's see what it comes up with later (only goes out to T+48 hours)

Crikey. Could be looking at much higher on the coast so.

HeidiHeidi · 06-12-2019 7:14pm

Any sign of this hitting N Donegal hard?

All the models I've seen (mostly here, thanks to all the posters!) seem to show it mostly in the midwest then tailing south.

Hoping for a bit of a show, seeing as I'm up here!!

irishrover99 · 06-12-2019 7:19pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Looks more south and severe on ecm.
Pretty sure cork will soon be added to the orange!!
Not far off red in the far West

It wouldn’t be a storm without you mentioning red alerts. Are you sure you don’t work for joe.ie

squarecircles · 06-12-2019 7:26pm

looks nasty on ICON, strong gusts penetrating well inland in the west and south west.

nacho libre · 06-12-2019 7:42pm

squarecircles wrote: »

looks nasty on ICON, strong gusts penetrating well inland in the west and south west.

I can't see any images in your post. Its unusual to see ECM going for the strongest winds, usually it'd be Icon or GFS.

spookwoman · 06-12-2019 7:48pm

Icon Wind Gusts. Wont know till it sunday how it will really turn out

Carol25 · 06-12-2019 7:53pm

spookwoman wrote: »

Icon Wind Gusts. Wont know till it sunday how it will really turn out

I think the icon can sometimes over estimate the peak wind gusts but can be fairly accurate in the short range on track, etc. I could be wrong tho. Certainly it looks like there’s quite severe winds coming.

endainoz · 06-12-2019 8:05pm

Carol25 wrote: »

I think the icon can sometimes over estimate the peak wind gusts but can be fairly accurate in the short range on track, etc. I could be wrong tho. Certainly it looks like there’s quite severe winds coming.

Yeah they do tend to go a bit higher than other models alright, we'll know more tomorrow I suppose.

Itssoeasy · 06-12-2019 8:07pm

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Looks more south and severe on ecm.
Pretty sure cork will soon be added to the orange!!
Not far off red in the far West

Leave cork out of this mess please.

Oneiric 3 · 06-12-2019 8:21pm

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Any sign of this hitting N Donegal hard?

All the models I've seen (mostly here, thanks to all the posters!) seem to show it mostly in the midwest then tailing south.

Hoping for a bit of a show, seeing as I'm up here!!

Donegal likely to see some pretty strong winds, but as you say, looking worse for the SW in general, which has become the standard norm in recent winters:

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 8:37pm

ECM still very strong in the SW, W , probably not as strong across the rest of the country as the other models and on this run not showing it as strong later in the NW but still gusting to 110km/h.

Looking like gusting to 130km/h Kerry, Clare, maybe S Galway and W Cork. Signs of gusting a bit higher in coastal areas and high ground.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 8:41pm

pad199207 · 06-12-2019 8:47pm

Warnings have been updated again now.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 8:51pm

ARPEGE 12Z is deadly looking. Damage with loads of power cuts I would imagine with this one if it happened like this but a bit to go yet. Feel it could follow the ECM , we could be seeing much of the high wind concentration in the SW, W Munster area perhaps ? GFS similar to the ECM but not quite as strong .Will see.

ICOM like wise showing very rough weather

pad199207 · 06-12-2019 8:59pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ARPEGE 12Z is deadly looking. Damage with loads of power cuts I would imagine with this one if it happened like this but a bit to go yet. Feel it could follow the ECM , we could be seeing much of the high wind concentration in the SW, W Munster area perhaps ? GFS similar to the ECM but not quite as strong .Will see.

ICOM like wise showing very rough weather

Now that gets my attention!

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 9:01pm

Rare to have ARPEGE stronger than ICON . ARPEGE is a sound model in my view, not one to overstate wind speeds, comes into it's own from about 36 hrs out . Has outperformed other models on occasions but has dropped the ball too but rarely. If it looks like this again on the 18Z run and tomorrow morning then it is a real sit up and take notice ( and action ) situation. But it could follow the ECM which would in general be the norm I think.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 9:07pm

EURO 4 Hi Res model just out to 18.00 Sun ,

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 9:44pm

That stripe of wind running across the country on the ARPEGE reminds me of the sting jet in Storm Darwin Feb 12 2014 . ECM showing a stripe of 140 km/h wind off the Clare coast around 18.00 not transferring inland as strong as the ARPEGE but still 110 to 120 and 130 km/h on higher ground . Crude charts from the ECM but are a very good guide I think.

Santy2015 · 06-12-2019 9:50pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

That stripe of wind running across the country on the ARPEGE reminds me of the sting jet in Storm Darwin Feb 12 2014 . ECM showing a stripe of 140 km/h wind off the Clare coast around 18.00 not transferring inland as strong as the ARPEGE but still 110 to 120 and 130 km/h on higher ground . Crude charts from the ECM but are a very good guide I think.

Cork not in orange warning but looking at these images it should be? I’m based in north west cork and we usually feel it especially if the warning is for kerry

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 9:55pm

Santy2015 wrote: »

Cork not in orange warning but looking at these images it should be? I’m based in north west cork and we usually feel it especially if the warning is for kerry

Close enough but a lot of cork possibly Yellow still. Plenty of time for changes as we get closer. The track and intensity could still shift a bit so another 24 hrs of close model watching by Met Eireann I reckon !

Storm 10 · 06-12-2019 10:09pm

Hope George does not get wind of this he was in full flight at this stage for Lorenzo with all his doom and gloom rubbish reporting and it was an Orange warning.

Oscar Bravo · 06-12-2019 10:37pm

Met Eireann would need a good kick up the arse from time to time, their twitter feed is hopping all evening with various updates etc on warnings. An orange warning out for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick
Yet the Marine warning remains yellow and then this rather tame Sunday forecast on the website (issued at 1956):

On Sunday fresh to strong west to southwest winds will reach gale force along coasts. High seas along the Atlantic seaboard with overtopping at the coasts bringing the risk of coastal flooding. There'll be widespread heavy showers, merging to bring longer spells of rain at times in the north. Temperatures in the afternoon will be 6 or 7 degrees (higher at coasts) with little change in temperature overnight on Sunday night.

Storm 10 · 06-12-2019 10:43pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann would need a good kick up the arse from time to time, their twitter feed is hopping all evening with various updates etc on warnings. An orange warning out for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick
Yet the Marine warning remains yellow and then this rather tame Sunday forecast on the website (issued at 1956):

On Sunday fresh to strong west to southwest winds will reach gale force along coasts. High seas along the Atlantic seaboard with overtopping at the coasts bringing the risk of coastal flooding. There'll be widespread heavy showers, merging to bring longer spells of rain at times in the north. Temperatures in the afternoon will be 6 or 7 degrees (higher at coasts) with little change in temperature overnight on Sunday night.

I am at a loss to understand why there always seems to be differences in their forecast on TV radio and twitter surely for a professional organisation they should all be singing from the same hymn sheet

Oneiric 3 · 06-12-2019 10:46pm

chart showing probabilities for gusts in excess of 64 knots for Sat evening (as per the ECM 12z run)

Oneiric 3 · 06-12-2019 10:57pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Met Eireann would need a good kick up the arse from time to time, their twitter feed is hopping all evening with various updates etc on warnings. An orange warning out for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick
Yet the Marine warning remains yellow and then this rather tame Sunday forecast on the website (issued at 1956):

On Sunday fresh to strong west to southwest winds will reach gale force along coasts. High seas along the Atlantic seaboard with overtopping at the coasts bringing the risk of coastal flooding. There'll be widespread heavy showers, merging to bring longer spells of rain at times in the north. Temperatures in the afternoon will be 6 or 7 degrees (higher at coasts) with little change in temperature overnight on Sunday night.

It's possible that there are different forecasters working on these different outlets, which would result in different outcomes.

I think that Met Eireann should not issue these very specific 'warnings' so early, because they are always going to change closer the time. Not only would this help in giving a more accurate warning, but it would prevent parasitical journalists from generating hyped-up stories in order to generate ad revenue.

Meteorite58 · 06-12-2019 11:44pm

ICON matching if not exceeding the ARPEGE on it's latest 18Z run. Very much higher than the ECM which would be the benchmark I reckon.

ICON's latest run would certainly be well in the Red Warning for Kerry, possibly Clare, Limerick, parts of Cork? Tipp and Waterford look very strong on this run also as is along the W and NW.

Not saying it is going to be Red but certainly to take note of. Have to compare with the ECM and ARPEGE later .

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2019 12:02am

HIRLAM 18Z showing some very high mean wind speeds especially around 17.00 - 18.00 with mean wind speeds of 100 105 km/h on the coast of Kerry and probably parts of Clare . Getting into Violent Storm territory off the coast or on the coast there.

Model just runs to 18.00 atm.

ninebeanrows · 07-12-2019 12:03am

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It's possible that there are different forecasters working on these different outlets, which would result in different outcomes.

I think that Met Eireann should not issue these very specific 'warnings' so early, because they are always going to change closer the time. Not only would this help in giving a more accurate warning, but it would prevent parasitical journalists from generating hyped-up stories in order to generate ad revenue.

Disagree

What use is a warning 24 hours out. Useful to save my soul but not to save or change my business event.

In the prediction of a mature low like this theres large confidence its gonna be windy for all.

Let people know that.

It's a forecast not gospel.

Theres no value updating the forecast when things are happening

It might save face but of no benefit to anybody bar the face

Kermit.de.frog · 07-12-2019 12:20am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

aisling86 · 07-12-2019 12:27am

Looking pretty rough on the icon alright! Interesting how the mountains act like a barrier around macroom

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2019 12:36am

Anything the ICON can do the ARPEGE can do better !

Bit all over the place where the strongest winds are going to be on this run but the most important thing is showing consistent high winds. Some very tight gradients showing up.

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2019 12:49am

Conditions there for convection producing big squally showers after the front goes through. Possibly cold enough for hail showers also .

A fair wind chill also.

squarecircles · 07-12-2019 12:52am

Always look forward to Meteorites excellent analysis on Impending storms.

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2019 1:07am

squarecircles wrote: »

Always look forward to Meteorites excellent analysis on Impending storms.

Oh, and I of yours and everyone else also !

What do ye think. What is the gut feeling on this.

Looks like it is going to be one rough day I reckon. High end Orange warnings, possibly more counties coming into the Orange warning category, possibly some counties getting red warnings.

Would think there are going to be some massive squally showers with huge dangerous and possibly damaging gusts of wind.

Im thinking strong possibility of multiple power outages including myself.

What do ye reckon?

Overdoing it ?

ECM 18Z Rapid coming out soon , might stay up to see what it has. Get a better perspective of where this is going.

endainoz · 07-12-2019 1:15am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Oh, and I of yours and everyone else also !

What do ye think. What is the gut feeling on this.

Looks like it is going to be one rough day I reckon. High end Orange warnings, possibly more counties coming into the Orange warning category, possibly some counties getting red warnings.

Would think there are going to be some massive squally showers with huge dangerous and possibly damaging gusts of wind.

Im thinking strong possibility of multiple power outages including myself.

What do ye reckon?

Overdoing it ?

ECM 18Z Rapid coming out soon , might stay up to see what it has. Get a better perspective of where this is going.

Definitely not overdoing it anyway. I'll be spending some of tomorrow securing shed doors and the like. Those models look close to red territory for me in coastal Clare, have to say I'm looking forward to it though, we've been a bit deprived of storms so far this winter! Do we have to wait long for that model to come out?

Meteorite58 · 07-12-2019 1:17am

endainoz wrote: »

Definitely not overdoing it anyway. I'll be spending some of tomorrow securing shed doors and the like. Those models look close to red territory for me in coastal Clare, have to say I'm looking forward to it though, we've been a bit deprived of storms so far this winter! Do we have to wait long for that model to come out?

Dont think it will be out fully for another 40 / 50mins .

Storm Atiyah Sunday - Monday, 8th - 9th Dec 2019

Comments