Storm Atiyah Sunday - Monday, 8th - 9th Dec 2019

Meteorite58

All the models showing very strong winds for Sunday if not possibly stormy on Atlantic Coastal Counties . Worth opening a dedicated thread to watch this develop. ECM has been consistently showing very strong winds now for a number of runs and the other models have caught up with it.

ECM 0Z showing the strongest winds in the SW initially then in the W and later the NW. Kerry looks very strong on this run but a long way to go yet. ECM not showing the strongest winds penetrating as far inland as previous runs , mainly keeping to coastal counties apart from a lot of Munster, most other areas look to get gusts of 80 to 90 km/h, more on high ground.

Some heavy rain also later Saturday into Sunday again mainly on Atlantic coastal counties. Blustery Showers on Sunday feeling very cold.

Meteorite58

The other main models all showing very windy conditions.

Oscar Bravo

From met eireann

Sunday: Very windy, possibly stormy in Atlantic coastal areas, with strong to gale force southwesterly winds and with the risk of severe and damaging gusts, especially in the southwest, west and northwest.
There will be some bright or sunny spells, but squally showers also. Cold, with maximum temperatures of 7 to 10 Celsius. Minimum overnight temperatures 3 to 7 Celsius, with winds very slowly easing later.

giveitholly

Is there a chance some coastal counties could get an orange warning for this?

Oscar Bravo

From met eireann

Updated: 2pm December 5th 2019 by Liz Walsh

Met Éireann’s Forecast Office have been monitoring developments for Sunday the 8th December for a number of days now, and confidence is mounting for a period of potentially stormy weather for some parts of the country.

Widespread rain on Saturday night will clear eastwards overnight with a cooler, more showery westerly airflow following into Sunday. There is a threat of strong winds developing, accompanied by severe and squally gusts, chiefly in parts of the west and southwest, but the exact details as well as the timings are still open to change. Whatever the case, Sunday is shaping up to be a windy day countrywide with squally showers in the mix.



Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation as we head into the weekend and warnings will be issued as required so stay tuned for further 

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

squarecircles

isn't the 8th of December traditionally a busy day for people out and about doing their christmas shopping.

aisling86

squarecircles wrote: »

isn't the 8th of December traditionally a busy day for people out and about doing their christmas shopping.

It sure is, farmers day out traditionally.

goat2

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

From met eireann

Updated: 2pm December 5th 2019 by Liz Walsh

Met Éireann’s Forecast Office have been monitoring developments for Sunday the 8th December for a number of days now, and confidence is mounting for a period of potentially stormy weather for some parts of the country.

Widespread rain on Saturday night will clear eastwards overnight with a cooler, more showery westerly airflow following into Sunday. There is a threat of strong winds developing, accompanied by severe and squally gusts, chiefly in parts of the west and southwest, but the exact details as well as the timings are still open to change. Whatever the case, Sunday is shaping up to be a windy day countrywide with squally showers in the mix.



Met Éireann forecasters will continue to monitor the situation as we head into the weekend and warnings will be issued as required so stay tuned for further

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

A good day for a lie in then

dodderangler

I knew today and tomoro was supposed to be bad but only heard about the weekend aswell.
I work with cranes so since 10:30 this morning we pulled up the chains and can’t work because it’s too windy. If we can’t work we don’t get paid. Right before Xmas. This is a big blow for us in the trade.
At one stage today my crane up 80 metres got a reading of 113kmh on the wind reader.

irishrover99

Did we have a storm last year in the 8th that was an orange warning and it turned out to not as bad as predicted and retailers went nuts about the warnings.

pauldry

Looks wet and windy or showery all the way to Xmas. Hints of one of those Southwesterly highs after that which would bring 10 to 13c like today without wind n rain .....

A constantly changing situation though but the next 10 days will be constant wind

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z up a notch on the latest run . Seeing a couple of embedded short waves later Sunday and the ARPEGE showing them packing a fair punch in the W/ NW later Sunday evening.

ECM just rolling out and makes for interesting viewing !

Meteorite58

giveitholly wrote: »

Is there a chance some coastal counties could get an orange warning for this?

Yes very much looking like Orange warnings at this stage. Current charts showing some coastal areas exceeding Orange warning levels for gusts as in 130 to 140 km/h but far too early to know for sure. This could downgrade or increase in strength, will only know for sure bit closer to the event.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z looking as strong if not stronger again especially for the W/ NW and showing those very strong winds later in the evening like the ARPEGE. Has the makings of a very rough day.

bmc58

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yes very much looking like Orange warnings at this stage. Current charts showing some coastal areas exceeding Orange warning levels for gusts as in 130 to 140 km/h but far too early to know for sure. This could downgrade or increase in strength, will only know for sure bit closer to the event.

130/140 km/h winds would be pretty serious,if they materialise.Is it going to be that bad in Tipperary?If so dog will not get his usual Sunday run in the park.

Meteorite58

The one thing the GFS doesn't do is overestimate the wind I reckon, looking stronger on this run again. Like ICON does not have those strong evening winds in the W as developed as ECM and ARPEGE.

Meteorite58

Looks like plenty of heavy squally showers going through on Sunday after the frontal passage on Sat night /early Sunday morning.

mickger844posts

Should be fun hearing weather presenters attempts at pronouncing Atiyah.

Looking like our first named storm (from the list of names) of the season going on current charts.

Snow Garden

The storm will test a few Xmas lights I reckon. The weather has been a little boring so I am looking forward to a bit of wind to clear the cobwebs.

Meteorite58

Big seas over the weekend.

Snow Garden

Met E forecast

Sunday: Very windy, possibly stormy in Atlantic coastal areas, with strong to gale force southwesterly winds and with the risk of severe and damaging gusts, especially in the southwest, west and later in the northwest. There will be some bright or sunny spells, but squally showers also. Cold, with maximum temperatures of 7 to 10 Celsius. Minimum overnight temperatures 4 to 7 Celsius, with winds very slowly easing later.

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1202708024923525120

Watch the VIDEO at the tweet. Alan posted that within the hr or so.

Looking very dodgy Sunday .. but also bitter cold next week

aidanodr

https://twitter.com/JointCyclone/status/1202730755136393216

Gonzo

aidanodr wrote: »

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1202708024923525120


Looking very dodgy Sunday .. but also bitter cold next week

Once we get these milder days over with, we are back into a cold north-west to south-east flow once again. The snowrisk charts look like we could see some flakes, although most of the time these risk charts produce nothing other than cold rain.

Darc19

squarecircles wrote: »

isn't the 8th of December traditionally a busy day for people out and about doing their christmas shopping.

Yep, about 25 years ago.

These days, it's just another normal day

Dank Janniels

mickger844posts wrote: »

Should be fun hearing weather presenters attempts at pronouncing Atiyah. .

Atiyah the Hun!

Meteorite58

Models have eased a bit on strongest winds for Sunday on latest runs. Surprisingly the ECM still showing the strongest winds.

Currently showing Munster and along the W getting the strongest winds initially and later the NW.

Still showing widespread gusting to 80 -100km/h and in Munster / W/ NW gusting 110 to 120km/h and possibly a bit higher on coasts and high ground I think.

Still a bit to go

Meteorite58

ICON looks very strong on this run, it's strongest yet but would be inclined to knock 10 or so off it at this stage perhaps. Still very strong though.

Meteorite58

Storm 10

Nothing of note there now from Joanna on the forecast on RTE

PukkaStukka

Storm 10 wrote: »

Nothing of note there now from Joanna on the forecast on RTE

She did mention high waves and swell with a risk of overtopping for the west, and nthe impression from forecast generally was it's going to be a rough weekend

pauldry

Probably 115kph in Mace Head but high tides could be noteworthy

squarecircles

all mentions of stormy weather dropped now,severe damaging winds,etc another bust,christ the models are atrocious.

SleetAndSnow

Interestingly, got a text from cork city council that an “orange weather alert” has been issued for the counties that we see in the advisory. None of which include cork. Edit: new advisory including it now.

squarecircles

So the storm has been named.


Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick

Storm Atiyah will track between Iceland and Ireland on Sunday generating a swathe of very strong winds across the country.

Southwesterly winds later veering northwesterly will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts from 110 to 130km/h.

Due to a combination of high seas and storm surge there is a possibility of coastal flooding.

Valid: Sunday 08 December 2019 09:00 to Monday 09 December 2019 06:00

Issued: Friday 06 December 2019 09:00
Status: Yellow
Storm Atiyah will track between Iceland and Ireland on Sunday generating a swathe of very strong winds across the country. <br><br>Southwest winds later veering northwesterly will reach mean speeds of 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of up to 100 km/h.
Wind warning for Leinster, Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford

Storm Atiyah will track between Iceland and Ireland on Sunday generating a swathe of very strong winds across the country.

Southwest winds later veering northwesterly will reach mean speeds of 50 to 60 km/h with gusts of up to 100 km/h.

Valid: Sunday 08 December 2019 15:00 to Monday 09 December 2019 06:00

aisling86

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Interestingly, got a text from cork city council that an “orange weather alert” has been issued for the counties that we see in the advisory. None of which include cork. Edit: new advisory including it now.

I was just going to post this! Very strange!

aisling86

Have we moved to advisories now instead of coloured warnings? Or is there a specific timeframe when coloured warnings are issued?

Xenji

Officially an Orange warning now.

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Leitrim, Mayo, Sligo, Clare, Kerry and Limerick
Storm Atiyah will track between Iceland and Ireland on Sunday generating a swathe of very strong winds across the country.

Southwesterly winds later veering northwesterly will reach mean speeds of 65 to 80 km/h with gusts from 110 to 130km/h.

Due to a combination of high seas and storm surge there is a possibility of coastal flooding.

Valid: Sunday 08 December 2019 09:00 to Monday 09 December 2019 06:00

Issued: Friday 06 December 2019 09:00

Updated: 2019-12-06T09:00:02+00:00

squarecircles

filtering through the media now.


https://www.farmersjournal.ie/storm-atiyah-gusts-of-up-to-130km-h-and-orange-wind-warning-513720

SleetAndSnow

They seem to be handling this well so far. Two advisories, upgraded one advisory to orange when they realized they are fairly spot on and kept the other while they wait and see

aidanodr

squarecircles wrote: »

filtering through the media now.

https://www.farmersjournal.ie/storm-atiyah-gusts-of-up-to-130km-h-and-orange-wind-warning-513720

Interesting .. article says "A status yellow wind warning has been issued for all of Leinster plus Cavan, Monaghan, Roscommon, Cork, Tipperary and Waterford."

However no YELLOW up to now on the Met Eireann Map ...

EDIT - spoke too soon, NOW YELLOW

https://www.met.ie/warnings

squarecircles

core of damaging winds just to the west of Ireland on the 06 z gfs

pauldry

Ya this will be a proper storm not like that last one that was overhyped

However atlantic coastal counties will be main ones affected and theyr used to this but again id be worried about high seas in places.

endainoz

We'll have great fun in North Clare on Sunday so! The swell during the afternoon will be impressive.

Oneiric 3

I mentioned this before, but these county by county 'warnings' are just ridiculous:



For example, all of south Leitrim included in the warning, yet Co. Roscommon, which is actually further west, is not. Kerry and Limerick included, yet N. Cork, and N. Tipperary, which is in the same general region, is not. Wind and wild weather do not recognise borders.

Not expecting much from this system for inland Galway, but nice to see the Atlantic finally attempting to perk up a little at last.

endainoz

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I mentioned this before, but these county by county 'warnings' are just ridiculous:



For example, all of south Leitrim included in the warning, yet Co. Roscommon, which is actually further west, is not. Kerry and Limerick included, yet N. Cork, and N. Tipperary, which is in the same general region, is not. Wind and wild weather do not recognise borders.

Not expecting much from this system for inland Galway, but nice to see the Atlantic finally attempting to perk up a little at last.

So how would you suggest it works then? Get the priest from each parish to make the call on which colour they should be. The system isn't perfect but it's fairly straightforward to follow.

squarecircles

Everything is wrong and i have no suggestions on how to improve it and i wont try to either.and its your fault. Ireland in a nutshell.

Oneiric 3

endainoz wrote: »

The system isn't perfect but it's fairly straightforward to follow.

No, it isn't.
Is there any reason why winds suddenly die down once they reach Roscommon as they move in from east Galway (much of which is just as east and sheltered) and Mayo? Is their any suggestion that east Galway, which is included in the warning, will suffer the same wind speeds as exposed coastal headlands in the the west of the country?
I know my county; I know how the weather works in it, and I know that these one size fits all warnings do not work.

Oneiric 3

squarecircles wrote: »

Everything is wrong and i have no suggestions on how to improve it and i wont try to either.and its your fault. Ireland in a nutshell.

I posted an old RTE weather forecast a few weeks back, and it was agreed by a few on here that charts back then were clearer and easier to understand because they used the tried and trusted method of using simple 'dividing lines' to show where the rain was more likely to occur.

Take a look at the method the UK Met use when issuing warnings. They show yellow regions that are independent of county borders to show which areas are likely to be affected by severe weather, and this works much better in my opinion.

sideswipe

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I mentioned this before, but these county by county 'warnings' are just ridiculous:

Pray for Monaghan, Status Black according to that map:eek:

endainoz

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

I know my county; I know how the weather works in it, and I know that these one size fits all warnings do not work.

Good for you, and if you can read a forecast then warnings shouldn't matter to you.