Property Market 2019

Pussyhands · 28-02-2019 12:37pm

Graham wrote: »

Being too expensive to consider investing is not the same as something being overpriced. It's just as likely the investor thinks there is limited scope for price appreciation.

To borrow a quote from the sage

Likewise houses being affordable due to high wages etc. does not make them well priced.

Graham · 28-02-2019 12:48pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Likewise houses being affordable due to high wages etc. does not make them well priced.

That depends on your definition of 'well priced'.

'Well Priced' for an investor/speculator usually means underpriced with a good prospect of price appreciation.

Well priced for an owner occupier is likely to mean a price which they are willing/able to afford/finance and/or a price below the cost of renting.

Pussyhands · 28-02-2019 1:05pm

Graham wrote: »

That depends on your definition of 'well priced'.

'Well Priced' for an investor/speculator usually means underpriced with a good prospect of price appreciation.

Well priced for an owner occupier is likely to mean a price which they are willing/able to afford/finance and/or a price below the cost of renting.

In that case every house ever bought is well priced.

Bluefoam · 28-02-2019 1:34pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

In that case every house ever bought is well priced.

From the point of view that the seller achieved a certain price and the buyer was willing to pay that price? Then yes!

The_Conductor · 28-02-2019 1:45pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

From the point of view that the seller achieved a certain price and the buyer was willing to pay that price? Then yes!

It was Gaius Petronius Arbiter, a Roman courtier in the time of Nero, who observed: 'Everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it'...........

Bluefoam · 28-02-2019 1:53pm

I commented on an article earlier this week that basically said that people were upset that people with money could afford better properties...

There seems to be a disparity in thinking between those who own the proprty they desire and those who don't. It is a capitalist society... the way to get more is to achieve more. I don't agree with it, nor do I fit in the first category yet, but I'm also not moaning about it... I'm just getting on with it.

Pussyhands · 28-02-2019 1:54pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

It was Gaius Petronius Arbiter, a Roman courtier in the time of Nero, who observed: 'Everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it'...........

So as I said, comments on the over/under pricing of property is pointless then, as every house ever sold was not overpriced going by your logic.

Bob24 · 28-02-2019 2:10pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

So as I said, comments on the over/under pricing of property is pointless then, as every house ever sold was not overpriced going by your logic.

It’s not the same point Graham made though.

From an investor’s perspective, something being well priced means that you expect it will appreciate in value so that you can make a profit.

From a prospective owner occupier’s perspective, well priced means that buying that home now will covert their long term housing needs in a cheaper way than other options (such as continuing to rent).

Those are very different ways to estimate value.

So yes every sold property is well-priced if well priced means that there is demand to match the offer.

But because there is demand doesn’t mean that it is well priced from any perspective.

A property could be very bad value for a prospective owner occupier because it is in awful condition and it would take a lot of time and money to bring it to standards, during which they have to pay rent. But that same property could be a bargain for a land speculator because it is cheap for the area due to its condition and anyway they are just planning to sit on it for a few years and sell it back to a developer with a nice profit because it is located in a very high deman area with no land available.

Nobodysrobots · 28-02-2019 2:45pm

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Yeah but you can't suddenly decide to start making red beryl to increase the supply where as you can build a load more houses, should the will and the money be there to build more houses of course.

A fundamental point you're missing in that equation is land, which the price of is intrinsically linked to property prices. We can use land better by building vertically, but can't increase the supply of it. Especially land suitable for residential use. May not seem relevant now, but in 30 years when the Earth's population hits 10 billion it will become more of an issue.

Mickiemcfist · 28-02-2019 3:53pm

Have I stumbled into the Economics 101 thread?

ELM327 · 28-02-2019 3:54pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

I commented on an article earlier this week that basically said that people were upset that people with money could afford better properties...

There seems to be a disparity in thinking between those who own the proprty they desire and those who don't. It is a capitalist society... the way to get more is to achieve more. I don't agree with it, nor do I fit in the first category yet, but I'm also not moaning about it... I'm just getting on with it.

This country is a socialist paradise. Capitalism is practically outlawed.

PokeHerKing · 28-02-2019 4:15pm

ELM327 wrote:

This country is a socialist paradise. Capitalism is practically outlawed.

We're a capitalist country with socialist policies.

Kidkinobe · 28-02-2019 4:34pm

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

A fundamental point you're missing in that equation is land, which the price of is intrinsically linked to property prices. We can use land better by building vertically, but can't increase the supply of it. Especially land suitable for residential use. May not seem relevant now, but in 30 years when the Earth's population hits 10 billion it will become more of an issue.

Yeah that old saying 'They aint making land anymore' was first heard about 3 days after Jesus died when he was asked to vacate his grave as a developer need it to put a few apartments on it.No one has used it since Dubai proved it wrong. And it certainly wont become an issue in Ireland, Dublin for example hasn't even scratched the surface with what could be built on it. Take Singapore, its a country with a population of almost 6 million, its a country that is approx 200 sq kms smaller than the size of Dublin county. In 30 years you just might see the very first 50 story building going up in Dublin and within that time frame, ways will be found to build 50 stories down and act as a foundation for 200 stories up.

Bluefoam · 01-03-2019 4:52pm

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

01-03-2019 4:56pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

She should take the feeder bus to Sallins or cycle .

LotharIngum · 03-03-2019 9:13am

Graham wrote: »

Being too expensive to consider investing is not the same as something being overpriced. It's just as likely the investor thinks there is limited scope for price appreciation.

To borrow a quote from the sage

Totally agree with that quote you posted.

But I would add that even if its marked down there is a massive danger in investing in property in Ireland now. So much now that only a REIT would even think about investing in property. And they are only interested in certain types of property anyway.

So investors for houses are basically out of the competition now so there might be some bargains to be had for 3 and 4 bed houses. Also there might be a few more on the market as landlords offload them so maybe 3 and 4 bed houses might be as much a bargain as they are ever going to be for an owner occupiers over the next while. If I was looking to buy one as an owner occupier I would be getting ready to pounce if the legislation to limit landlords selling comes in. Expect a fair auld amount of offloading to be triggered then.

awec · 04-03-2019 9:24pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

I would guess that of all the Dublin commutes, Kildare is probably the worst.

Mad_maxx · 04-03-2019 10:28pm

awec wrote: »

I would guess that of all the Dublin commutes, Kildare is probably the worst.

Of the three bordering Dublin, meath has the worst transport links as the train only goes to ratoath

Thargor · 04-03-2019 10:32pm

awec wrote: »

I would guess that of all the Dublin commutes, Kildare is probably the worst.

I work with a woman who commutes from Carlow, she's come in an hour late and crying the odd time when theres been worse than usual traffic.

L1011 · 04-03-2019 10:41pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Of the three bordering Dublin, meath has the worst transport links as the train only goes to ratoath

A few miles outside Ratoath at that. And the trains are massively oversubscribed.

q85dw7osi4lebg · 04-03-2019 10:45pm

Let's not forget the train goes to Laytown and Gormanston in Meath too, where a seat is guaranteed every morning. Better chance of a seat in Laytown than in Balbriggan or Skerries.

Mad_maxx · 04-03-2019 11:07pm

L1011 wrote: »

A few miles outside Ratoath at that. And the trains are massively oversubscribed.

Meath is a good bit cheaper than Kildare for housing and wicklow is dearer again than Kildare, Louth would be slightly cheaper than meath and really as accessible to Dublin as meath

Mad_maxx · 05-03-2019 1:13pm

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Let's not forget the train goes to Laytown and Gormanston in Meath too, where a seat is guaranteed every morning. Better chance of a seat in Laytown than in Balbriggan or Skerries.

Your dealing with the hinterland of drogheda when it comes to laytown, means little to most of meath

Navan needs a rail link

q85dw7osi4lebg · 05-03-2019 1:59pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Your dealing with the hinterland of drogheda when it comes to laytown, means little to most of meath

Navan needs a rail link

You are indeed but you are getting Meath prices. Brand new A rated 4 bed semis for 280, 10 year old 4 bed semis for 250, good rail and bus links and right on the beach. A lot going for that area. It's like Skerries but a third cheaper and drive wise only 10 minutes further from the city due to the M1.

Doop · 06-03-2019 10:32am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

Might sound simplistic but cant people just cycle to the train station?

Bluefoam · 06-03-2019 10:43am

Doop wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

Might sound simplistic but cant people just cycle to the train station?

Having grown up in a nice suburb of Dublin, I parked my bike at the dart station three times. Had my saddle stolen once, front wheel robbed another time and the third time my bike just wasn't there when I came back... Besides that, people have other considerations and cycling may not suite... So yes it is a simplistic view, but not necessarily a wrong view...

Doop · 06-03-2019 10:52am

Bluefoam wrote: »

Having grown up in a nice suburb of Dublin, I parked my bike at the dart station three times. Had my saddle stolen once, front wheel robbed another time and the third time my bike just wasn't there when I came back... Besides that, people have other considerations and cycling may not suite... So yes it is a simplistic view, but not necessarily a wrong view...

I had thought of the security side of it alright, which is a major concern. Personally I commute by bike and go to meetings/ site visits etc around the city center as such I have a bike which offers little value to a would be thief.. my lock is probably worth more than the bike!

I just bought a house (moved in 1 week ago) within Dublin in one of the cheaper areas on the south side for less than 300k. My commute is 15mins to grand canal dock. I never even considered moving outside of Dublin, the shiny new builds may look attractive.. but the commute will destroy most people eventually.

JohnCleary · 06-03-2019 5:01pm

Recently viewed a property in Galway City. Great location, main downside is on-street parking and the house is directly on a public footpath (quiet street but busy foot traffic)

1000 sq ft, 3 bed, BER F

AMV 295k

Went into the house and instantly the auctioneer (we'd met before from other viewings) stated that due to interest, AMV is now 345k.

I take a look around... all the walls plastered and damp around the windows (I pushed my finger through one piece beside the window). When bought during the boom (2 owners ago, according to folio), the guy obviously had plans to develop... built a 'shed' out the back with power with obvious notions to turn into a studio.... no planning (but it's been there 12 years, so not sure what the story is now) - either way, it's just a shell. To provide power, mains line running over the kitchen cubbords, through the wall and out the garden... lovely.

'Refurbished' in haste to get a rental in there, I assume.... terribly done. All old doors etc. painted by, I can only guess, Stevie Wonder. Laminate flooring not even finished off properly. Central heating pipes above ground.

345k? I wish them the best of luck!

Mad_maxx · 06-03-2019 7:35pm

JohnCleary wrote: »

Recently viewed a property in Galway City. Great location, main downside is on-street parking and the house is directly on a public footpath (quiet street but busy foot traffic)

1000 sq ft, 3 bed, BER F

AMV 295k

Went into the house and instantly the auctioneer (we'd met before from other viewings) stated that due to interest, AMV is now 345k.

I take a look around... all the walls plastered and damp around the windows (I pushed my finger through one piece beside the window). When bought during the boom (2 owners ago, according to folio), the guy obviously had plans to develop... built a 'shed' out the back with power with obvious notions to turn into a studio.... no planning (but it's been there 12 years, so not sure what the story is now) - either way, it's just a shell. To provide power, mains line running over the kitchen cubbords, through the wall and out the garden... lovely.

'Refurbished' in haste to get a rental in there, I assume.... terribly done. All old doors etc. painted by, I can only guess, Stevie Wonder. Laminate flooring not even finished off properly. Central heating pipes above ground.

345k? I wish them the best of luck!

Galway city is extremely expensive so wouldn't surprise me if they get it

The_Conductor · 06-03-2019 8:12pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Galway city is extremely expensive so wouldn't surprise me if they get it

The prices in Galway are completely and utterly irrational.
If/when a slowdown occurs- Galway has a hell of a lot more to loose than pretty much anywhere else in the country- including the affluent leafy suburbs of Dublin.

Pussyhands · 06-03-2019 10:30pm

More economic forecast cuts...Brexit 3 weeks away..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0306/1034610-oecds-interim-economic-statement/

JohnCleary · 06-03-2019 11:22pm

The Galway City house in question was purchased in 2015 for €180k - nice flip if they can double in 4 years.

I can't complain, I benefited from the last recession, but this shows that Galway is gone bonkers.

I'm glad I have a place to live in (although we are looking to purchase, not just going to viewings for the craic).

Nobodysrobots · 07-03-2019 10:54am

Interesting article from Charlie Weston in today's Indo:

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/charlie-weston-big-buyers-with-more-firepower-are-creating-a-lost-generation-of-renters-37887959.html

Investors literally have billions of euro that enables them to buy up entire apartment blocks to rent out. They have identified that our dysfunctional housing market is unlikely to ever be able to supply the volume of homes at prices that are affordable for ordinary buyers.

This comes a day after Glenveagh CEO stating we may never be able to ramp up supply enough to meet demand.

Sheeps · 07-03-2019 11:15am

Another interesting read in the Irish Times property section of all places.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/why-first-time-buyers-cannot-afford-to-purchase-a-home-1.3815107

optogirl · 07-03-2019 11:23am

I just keep thinking, hoping, that something has to give but I've been thinking that for a long time now. Very frustrating to think that I will be stuck in the rental sector with no security & ever increasing rent.

Bluefoam · 07-03-2019 11:39am

optogirl wrote: »

I just keep thinking, hoping, that something has to give but I've been thinking that for a long time now. Very frustrating to think that I will be stuck in the rental sector with no security & ever increasing rent.

I'm pretty sure that the powers in world economy dont want you to own your property... They want you to rent a home, pay monthly insurance, phone bills, heating and energy, bins collection, car payments, subscribe for wifi, TV, music, netflix, amazon prime, house alarm... even your doorbell needs a subscription these days...

They want to lock you in... nice diligent subsiption based humans are better than free thinking, financially independent ones. The key is to buy your house & do it as soon as possible. There will soon be a divided society... those who own & those who don't.

Sheeps · 07-03-2019 12:52pm

Pretty telling results in the Irish Times political poll today also:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

Sinn Féin who are arguably leading the housing debate are dominating support in the under 35's, where as Fine Gael only begin to take the lead in the opinion polls after 35. In my view the fact that the average first time buyer is now 34 is no coincidence, and reinforced by the fact that people who are unmarried (who also find it hardest to get on the housing ladder) are also highly supportive of Sinn Féin.

There are obviously other factors here, but hard to see how housing wont dominate the next general election.

Fol20 · 07-03-2019 12:56pm

Sheeps wrote: »

Pretty telling results in the Irish Times political poll today also:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/poll

Sinn Féin who are arguably leading the housing debate are dominating support in the under 35's, where as Fine Gael only begin to take the lead in the opinion polls after 35. In my view the fact that the average first time buyer is now 34 is no coincidence, and reinforced by the fact that people who are unmarried (who also find it hardest to get on the housing ladder) are also highly supportive of Sinn Féin.

There are obviously other factors here, but hard to see how housing wont dominate the next general election.

Their economics policies leave a lot to be desired with no critical thinking or logic behind them. Its all buzz words and fluff with nothing to back it up.

coolshannagh28 · 07-03-2019 12:58pm

Bluefoam wrote: »

I'm pretty sure that the powers in world economy dont want you to own your property... They want you to rent a home, pay monthly insurance, phone bills, heating and energy, bins collection, car payments, subscribe for wifi, TV, music, netflix, amazon prime, house alarm... even your doorbell needs a subscription these days...

They want to lock you in... nice diligent subsiption based humans are better than free thinking, financially independent ones. The key is to buy your house & do it as soon as possible. There will soon be a divided society... those who own & those who don't.

We are at the forefront of this model since the crash with vulture funds, REITS,and hedge funds the preferred landlords with guaranteed secure long term yields. We seem to be a model for the movement towards minimum income and our financial model lends itself to this experiment.

Sheeps · 07-03-2019 1:04pm

Fol20 wrote: »

Their economics policies leave a lot to be desired with no critical thinking or logic behind them. Its all buzz words and fluff with nothing to back it up.

Do you honestly believe Eoin O'Broin is just talking fluff on housing?

Fol20 · 07-03-2019 1:11pm

Sheeps wrote: »

Do you honestly believe Eoin O'Broin is just talking fluff on housing?

Im talking general terms for Sinn Fein and when they are so socialist in nature, where are they going to receive the funding for all of their ïmprovements"

Sunrise_Sunset · 07-03-2019 1:14pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

More economic forecast cuts...Brexit 3 weeks away..

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0306/1034610-oecds-interim-economic-statement/

We're currently house hunting. I wonder should we wait until after Brexit?

RandomUsername · 07-03-2019 1:22pm

Sunrise_Sunset wrote:

We're currently house hunting. I wonder should we wait until after Brexit?

No, then you'll be competing with everyone else who waited, unless your job (s) is/are directly at risk from a (unlikely) hard Brexit I'd go for it.

Browney7 · 07-03-2019 1:23pm

Fol20 wrote: »

Im talking general terms for Sinn Fein and when they are so socialist in nature, where are they going to receive the funding for all of their ïmprovements"

It's true their economic policies leave a lot to be desired but FF were in power when the economy was driven off a cliff and FG have presided over the last number of years which has resulted in rocketing rents. Younger people will aspire to owning their own place and not getting fleeced to put a roof over their head in rent. Vote FG and FF and it's more of the same, vote SF and it "may" change. It's not surprising people with sweet FA are gravitating towards what they want to hear.

Property ownership has always been used as a means of political control - right to buy and Maggie T and all that.

scheister · 07-03-2019 1:28pm

The prices are very annoying at the moment. I will be looking to buy next year. Ill give an example from where i live. Back in 2013 a 2 bed townhouse went on the market for 100k so first time buyer needed to earn €25,714 assuming singly buyer. one of its neighbours still a 2 bed townhouse is now on the market at 215k so the same buyer needs to be on €55,285 a year now to get a mortgage.

Fol20 · 07-03-2019 1:52pm

Browney7 wrote: »

It's true their economic policies leave a lot to be desired but FF were in power when the economy was driven off a cliff and FG have presided over the last number of years which has resulted in rocketing rents. Younger people will aspire to owning their own place and not getting fleeced to put a roof over their head in rent. Vote FG and FF and it's more of the same, vote SF and it "may" change. It's not surprising people with sweet FA are gravitating towards what they want to hear.

Property ownership has always been used as a means of political control - right to buy and Maggie T and all that.

The problem however is they provide a lot of miss information and if they ever get into the power they could drive ireland even further off a cliff compared to the people we have right now. I actually think FG is doing a worse job than FF for their housing policies.

One interesting thing i saw on the the continent is small studio apartments for sale where they would be circa 10m squared in total. Its not ideal for a family however as a stepping stone to something where it provides some the option of not renting and getting one of these instead, i think it might be a good proposition. Even in cities such as Paris these were affordable.

AlmightyCushion · 07-03-2019 2:10pm

Fol20 wrote: »

The problem however is they provide a lot of miss information and if they ever get into the power they could drive ireland even further off a cliff compared to the people we have right now. I actually think FG is doing a worse job than FF for their housing policies.

One interesting thing i saw on the the continent is small studio apartments for sale where they would be circa 10m squared in total. Its not ideal for a family however as a stepping stone to something where it provides some the option of not renting and getting one of these instead, i think it might be a good proposition. Even in cities such as Paris these were affordable.

I thought you must have got the size wrong because 10sqm sounds absolutely horrendous. Turns out it's true but they are horrendous and not even cheap.

https://www.green-acres.fr/en/properties/56363a-458.htm

€85,000 for that tiny piece of crap! That is not the solution to our housing issues.

abcabc123123 · 07-03-2019 2:14pm

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

I thought you must have got the size wrong because 10sqm sounds absolutely horrendous. Turns out it's true but they are horrendous and not even cheap.

https://www.green-acres.fr/en/properties/56363a-458.htm

€85,000 for that tiny piece of crap! That is not the solution to our housing issues.

That looks like a stepping stone to suicide. Good god.

JJJackal · 07-03-2019 2:17pm

scheister wrote: »

The prices are very annoying at the moment. I will be looking to buy next year. Ill give an example from where i live. Back in 2013 a 2 bed townhouse went on the market for 100k so first time buyer needed to earn €25,714 assuming singly buyer. one of its neighbours still a 2 bed townhouse is now on the market at 215k so the same buyer needs to be on €55,285 a year now to get a mortgage.

98
You are comparing 2013 (the worst recession and housing crisis in memory) to today. Average Prices in 2013 were the same as in 2003 according to the cso website. Another way to look at house prices is to say that this type of house has increased from 100k (we dont know what price it was sold for?) in 2003 to 215k today (he may not get that)- just over a doubling of price in 16 years is probably ok - somewhere between 4-5% increase per year.

Really Irish Housing is such a dysfunctional market!

Cryptopagan · 07-03-2019 2:50pm

abcabc123123 wrote: »

That looks like a stepping stone to suicide. Good god.

Located at roof level and everything. Tbh if my real home was out in the country somewhere and that was just a place to stay in the city when working I could probably live with it. The kitchen also being the toilet though....

Property Market 2019

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