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Property Market 2019

The_Conductor

As is now becoming a custom- we'll start a new thread to discuss all topics as they pertain to the property market in general, alongside people's predictions and experiences- for the year 2019.

Its going to be an interesting year- with Brexit, if it comes to pass, at the end of March- and to misquote Donald Rumsfeld - the unknown unknowns that are likely to jump out at us, when we least expect them to.

2018 thread is now closed.

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Pussyhands

Graham wrote: »

Being too expensive to consider investing is not the same as something being overpriced. It's just as likely the investor thinks there is limited scope for price appreciation.

To borrow a quote from the sage

Likewise houses being affordable due to high wages etc. does not make them well priced.

Graham

Pussyhands wrote: »

Likewise houses being affordable due to high wages etc. does not make them well priced.

That depends on your definition of 'well priced'.

'Well Priced' for an investor/speculator usually means underpriced with a good prospect of price appreciation.

Well priced for an owner occupier is likely to mean a price which they are willing/able to afford/finance and/or a price below the cost of renting.

Pussyhands

Graham wrote: »

That depends on your definition of 'well priced'.

'Well Priced' for an investor/speculator usually means underpriced with a good prospect of price appreciation.

Well priced for an owner occupier is likely to mean a price which they are willing/able to afford/finance and/or a price below the cost of renting.

In that case every house ever bought is well priced.

Bluefoam

Pussyhands wrote: »

In that case every house ever bought is well priced.

From the point of view that the seller achieved a certain price and the buyer was willing to pay that price? Then yes!

The_Conductor

Bluefoam wrote: »

From the point of view that the seller achieved a certain price and the buyer was willing to pay that price? Then yes!

It was Gaius Petronius Arbiter, a Roman courtier in the time of Nero, who observed: 'Everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it'...........

Bluefoam

I commented on an article earlier this week that basically said that people were upset that people with money could afford better properties...

There seems to be a disparity in thinking between those who own the proprty they desire and those who don't. It is a capitalist society... the way to get more is to achieve more. I don't agree with it, nor do I fit in the first category yet, but I'm also not moaning about it... I'm just getting on with it.

Pussyhands

The_Conductor wrote: »

It was Gaius Petronius Arbiter, a Roman courtier in the time of Nero, who observed: 'Everything is worth what its purchaser is willing to pay for it'...........

So as I said, comments on the over/under pricing of property is pointless then, as every house ever sold was not overpriced going by your logic.

Bob24

Pussyhands wrote: »

So as I said, comments on the over/under pricing of property is pointless then, as every house ever sold was not overpriced going by your logic.

It’s not the same point Graham made though.

From an investor’s perspective, something being well priced means that you expect it will appreciate in value so that you can make a profit.

From a prospective owner occupier’s perspective, well priced means that buying that home now will covert their long term housing needs in a cheaper way than other options (such as continuing to rent).

Those are very different ways to estimate value.

So yes every sold property is well-priced if well priced means that there is demand to match the offer.

But because there is demand doesn’t mean that it is well priced from any perspective.

A property could be very bad value for a prospective owner occupier because it is in awful condition and it would take a lot of time and money to bring it to standards, during which they have to pay rent. But that same property could be a bargain for a land speculator because it is cheap for the area due to its condition and anyway they are just planning to sit on it for a few years and sell it back to a developer with a nice profit because it is located in a very high deman area with no land available.

Nobodysrobots

Kidkinobe wrote: »

Yeah but you can't suddenly decide to start making red beryl to increase the supply where as you can build a load more houses, should the will and the money be there to build more houses of course.

A fundamental point you're missing in that equation is land, which the price of is intrinsically linked to property prices. We can use land better by building vertically, but can't increase the supply of it. Especially land suitable for residential use. May not seem relevant now, but in 30 years when the Earth's population hits 10 billion it will become more of an issue.

Mickiemcfist

Have I stumbled into the Economics 101 thread?

ELM327

Bluefoam wrote: »

I commented on an article earlier this week that basically said that people were upset that people with money could afford better properties...

There seems to be a disparity in thinking between those who own the proprty they desire and those who don't. It is a capitalist society... the way to get more is to achieve more. I don't agree with it, nor do I fit in the first category yet, but I'm also not moaning about it... I'm just getting on with it.

This country is a socialist paradise. Capitalism is practically outlawed.

PokeHerKing

ELM327 wrote:

This country is a socialist paradise. Capitalism is practically outlawed.

We're a capitalist country with socialist policies.

Kidkinobe

Nobodysrobots wrote: »

A fundamental point you're missing in that equation is land, which the price of is intrinsically linked to property prices. We can use land better by building vertically, but can't increase the supply of it. Especially land suitable for residential use. May not seem relevant now, but in 30 years when the Earth's population hits 10 billion it will become more of an issue.

Yeah that old saying 'They aint making land anymore' was first heard about 3 days after Jesus died when he was asked to vacate his grave as a developer need it to put a few apartments on it.No one has used it since Dubai proved it wrong. And it certainly wont become an issue in Ireland, Dublin for example hasn't even scratched the surface with what could be built on it. Take Singapore, its a country with a population of almost 6 million, its a country that is approx 200 sq kms smaller than the size of Dublin county. In 30 years you just might see the very first 50 story building going up in Dublin and within that time frame, ways will be found to build 50 stories down and act as a foundation for 200 stories up.

Bluefoam

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

[Deleted User]

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

She should take the feeder bus to Sallins or cycle .

LotharIngum

Graham wrote: »

Being too expensive to consider investing is not the same as something being overpriced. It's just as likely the investor thinks there is limited scope for price appreciation.

To borrow a quote from the sage

Totally agree with that quote you posted.

But I would add that even if its marked down there is a massive danger in investing in property in Ireland now. So much now that only a REIT would even think about investing in property. And they are only interested in certain types of property anyway.

So investors for houses are basically out of the competition now so there might be some bargains to be had for 3 and 4 bed houses. Also there might be a few more on the market as landlords offload them so maybe 3 and 4 bed houses might be as much a bargain as they are ever going to be for an owner occupiers over the next while. If I was looking to buy one as an owner occupier I would be getting ready to pounce if the legislation to limit landlords selling comes in. Expect a fair auld amount of offloading to be triggered then.

awec

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

I would guess that of all the Dublin commutes, Kildare is probably the worst.

Mad_maxx

awec wrote: »

I would guess that of all the Dublin commutes, Kildare is probably the worst.

Of the three bordering Dublin, meath has the worst transport links as the train only goes to ratoath

Thargor

awec wrote: »

I would guess that of all the Dublin commutes, Kildare is probably the worst.

I work with a woman who commutes from Carlow, she's come in an hour late and crying the odd time when theres been worse than usual traffic.

L1011

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Of the three bordering Dublin, meath has the worst transport links as the train only goes to ratoath

A few miles outside Ratoath at that. And the trains are massively oversubscribed.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Let's not forget the train goes to Laytown and Gormanston in Meath too, where a seat is guaranteed every morning. Better chance of a seat in Laytown than in Balbriggan or Skerries.

Mad_maxx

L1011 wrote: »

A few miles outside Ratoath at that. And the trains are massively oversubscribed.

Meath is a good bit cheaper than Kildare for housing and wicklow is dearer again than Kildare, Louth would be slightly cheaper than meath and really as accessible to Dublin as meath

Mad_maxx

Rex Disgusting Tariff wrote: »

Let's not forget the train goes to Laytown and Gormanston in Meath too, where a seat is guaranteed every morning. Better chance of a seat in Laytown than in Balbriggan or Skerries.

Your dealing with the hinterland of drogheda when it comes to laytown, means little to most of meath

Navan needs a rail link

q85dw7osi4lebg

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Your dealing with the hinterland of drogheda when it comes to laytown, means little to most of meath

Navan needs a rail link

You are indeed but you are getting Meath prices. Brand new A rated 4 bed semis for 280, 10 year old 4 bed semis for 250, good rail and bus links and right on the beach. A lot going for that area. It's like Skerries but a third cheaper and drive wise only 10 minutes further from the city due to the M1.

Doop

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

Might sound simplistic but cant people just cycle to the train station?

Bluefoam

Doop wrote: »

Bluefoam wrote: »

Into the Wesht:

https://www.leinsterleader.ie/news/news/367009/more-car-parking-spaces-needed-in-sallins.html

Seems that commuting from the towns surrounding Dublin isn't that easy after all.

Might sound simplistic but cant people just cycle to the train station?

Having grown up in a nice suburb of Dublin, I parked my bike at the dart station three times. Had my saddle stolen once, front wheel robbed another time and the third time my bike just wasn't there when I came back... Besides that, people have other considerations and cycling may not suite... So yes it is a simplistic view, but not necessarily a wrong view...

Doop

Bluefoam wrote: »

Having grown up in a nice suburb of Dublin, I parked my bike at the dart station three times. Had my saddle stolen once, front wheel robbed another time and the third time my bike just wasn't there when I came back... Besides that, people have other considerations and cycling may not suite... So yes it is a simplistic view, but not necessarily a wrong view...

I had thought of the security side of it alright, which is a major concern. Personally I commute by bike and go to meetings/ site visits etc around the city center as such I have a bike which offers little value to a would be thief.. my lock is probably worth more than the bike!

I just bought a house (moved in 1 week ago) within Dublin in one of the cheaper areas on the south side for less than 300k. My commute is 15mins to grand canal dock. I never even considered moving outside of Dublin, the shiny new builds may look attractive.. but the commute will destroy most people eventually.

JohnCleary

Recently viewed a property in Galway City. Great location, main downside is on-street parking and the house is directly on a public footpath (quiet street but busy foot traffic)

1000 sq ft, 3 bed, BER F

AMV 295k

Went into the house and instantly the auctioneer (we'd met before from other viewings) stated that due to interest, AMV is now 345k.

I take a look around... all the walls plastered and damp around the windows (I pushed my finger through one piece beside the window). When bought during the boom (2 owners ago, according to folio), the guy obviously had plans to develop... built a 'shed' out the back with power with obvious notions to turn into a studio.... no planning (but it's been there 12 years, so not sure what the story is now) - either way, it's just a shell. To provide power, mains line running over the kitchen cubbords, through the wall and out the garden... lovely.

'Refurbished' in haste to get a rental in there, I assume.... terribly done. All old doors etc. painted by, I can only guess, Stevie Wonder. Laminate flooring not even finished off properly. Central heating pipes above ground.

345k? I wish them the best of luck!

Mad_maxx

JohnCleary wrote: »

Recently viewed a property in Galway City. Great location, main downside is on-street parking and the house is directly on a public footpath (quiet street but busy foot traffic)

1000 sq ft, 3 bed, BER F

AMV 295k

Went into the house and instantly the auctioneer (we'd met before from other viewings) stated that due to interest, AMV is now 345k.

I take a look around... all the walls plastered and damp around the windows (I pushed my finger through one piece beside the window). When bought during the boom (2 owners ago, according to folio), the guy obviously had plans to develop... built a 'shed' out the back with power with obvious notions to turn into a studio.... no planning (but it's been there 12 years, so not sure what the story is now) - either way, it's just a shell. To provide power, mains line running over the kitchen cubbords, through the wall and out the garden... lovely.

'Refurbished' in haste to get a rental in there, I assume.... terribly done. All old doors etc. painted by, I can only guess, Stevie Wonder. Laminate flooring not even finished off properly. Central heating pipes above ground.

345k? I wish them the best of luck!

Galway city is extremely expensive so wouldn't surprise me if they get it

The_Conductor

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Galway city is extremely expensive so wouldn't surprise me if they get it

The prices in Galway are completely and utterly irrational.
If/when a slowdown occurs- Galway has a hell of a lot more to loose than pretty much anywhere else in the country- including the affluent leafy suburbs of Dublin.