Boards.ie uses cookies. By continuing to browse this site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Click here to find out more x
Post Reply  
 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
05-12-2018, 14:09   #31
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kerry
Posts: 5,823
Just taking a look through the charts on the phone also and I would think that they have increased wind speeds over the last two runs, the system early Fri morning a lot closer to the NW coasts. Wouldent be surprised to see wind speeds increase more. Fri looking very windy and squally across the country.
Meteorite58 is online now  
Advertisement
05-12-2018, 15:46   #32
17-pdr
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Dundalk
Posts: 3,601
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
Just taking a look through the charts on the phone also and I would think that they have increased wind speeds over the last two runs, the system early Fri morning a lot closer to the NW coasts. Wouldent be surprised to see wind speeds increase more. Fri looking very windy and squally across the country.
12Z GFS doesn't seem as severe as the 6Z run.

17-pdr is offline  
05-12-2018, 21:37   #33
Oscar Bravo
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 6,636
Siobhan Ryan on the weather there, "pressure will fall from 1000 down to 983 with rapid cyclogenesis occurring, every chance now the warning will be upgraded to Orange"
Oscar Bravo is online now  
(4) thanks from:
05-12-2018, 21:47   #34
Tomtom364
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 1,339
Is Friday evening looking likely to have disruptive weather aswell or is it looking like a mostly Thursday night Friday morning event?
Tomtom364 is offline  
(2) thanks from:
05-12-2018, 21:52   #35
squarecircles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,074
Personal note to oneself - now cast situation,explosive cyclongenesis,(bombogenesis)severe local conditions,sting jet,damaging winds in west/northwest,egg on face.

Orange warning imminent.



Rest of the country-tut shore it wasn't bad at all

Cue warning criteria debate.

Last edited by squarecircles; 05-12-2018 at 22:05.
squarecircles is offline  
Advertisement
05-12-2018, 22:17   #36
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kerry
Posts: 5,823
Cant post charts atm but have a look at the HIRLAM , severe along the W , NW , N coasts early Fri morning.
Meteorite58 is online now  
05-12-2018, 22:20   #37
squarecircles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,074
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tomtom364 View Post
Is Friday evening looking likely to have disruptive weather aswell or is it looking like a mostly Thursday night Friday morning event?
There is potential for a second bout of severe winds across the south and west Friday evening,stay tuned to your local forecast and keep up to dat with met.ie warnings which maybe upgraded by morning time
squarecircles is offline  
(3) thanks from:
05-12-2018, 22:23   #38
squarecircles
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 1,074
https://www.donegalweatherchannel.ie...est-of-ireland
squarecircles is offline  
05-12-2018, 22:34   #39
Sycamore Tree
Registered User
 
Sycamore Tree's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: Galway
Posts: 695
Sycamore Tree is online now  
Advertisement
05-12-2018, 23:02   #40
17-pdr
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Dundalk
Posts: 3,601
Quote:
Originally Posted by Meteorite58 View Post
Cant post charts atm but have a look at the HIRLAM , severe along the W , NW , N coasts early Fri morning.
Yep, looks nasty for a while. Mean speeds of 100+ km/h in the coastal areas of the W & NW for a time if accurate.



Adding the FMI-HIRLAM chart for gusts. 140 km/h possible, reaching into inland areas of NW Mayo first and then into Donegal.


Last edited by 17-pdr; 05-12-2018 at 23:12.
17-pdr is offline  
05-12-2018, 23:25   #41
17-pdr
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2016
Location: Dundalk
Posts: 3,601
Projected 15 millibar pressure differential between Westport (990) and the tip of NW Donegal (975) in the early morning. Almost 30 mb difference from NW Donegal to SW Cork.


17-pdr is offline  
06-12-2018, 00:17   #42
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kerry
Posts: 5,823
The ECM showing some very strong winds along the W and NW coasts, 110 to 130 km/h or perhaps even a bit higher. The European models are keeping the track closer to the Irish coast , American a bit further out and less strong. Would side with the European at this stage. If the storm tracked even 60 km closer it would bring very strong damaging winds inland. Hard to know if it will do so, it seems to have settled into the shown track atm...we will see. As squarecircles said it is coming down to a nowcast.







Meteorite58 is online now  
06-12-2018, 00:20   #43
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kerry
Posts: 5,823











Meteorite58 is online now  
06-12-2018, 00:36   #44
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kerry
Posts: 5,823
ARPEGE track very similar to the ECM but a bit less strong.

HIRLAM has the closest track and probably strongest winds on the present run, would be inclined to trust the HIRLAM over the ARPEGE. The HIRLAM would bring severe damaging winds to W Galway, Mayo, Sligo, NW Leitrim and Donegal if this were to verify. Don't know if it will . I think very possible to see Orange warnings at least by tomorrow unless the system takes a track further out. Close.













Last edited by Meteorite58; 06-12-2018 at 00:51.
Meteorite58 is online now  
06-12-2018, 01:02   #45
Meteorite58
Moderator
 
Meteorite58's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: Kerry
Posts: 5,823
HIRLAM 18Z 10m Mean Wind Speeds ( kt)





Meteorite58 is online now  
Post Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Remove Text Formatting
Bold
Italic
Underline

Insert Image
Wrap [QUOTE] tags around selected text
 
Decrease Size
Increase Size
Please sign up or log in to join the discussion

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Share Tweet