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03-12-2018, 20:41   #1
Meteorite58
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Potential Storm Watch Fri 7 Dec 2018

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Originally Posted by squarecircles View Post
Surprised nobody's mentioned this evenings ECM, gusts of up to 150kmh in west/northwest for friday
If this evolved as it's being shown,Gfs 12z also had a severe windstorm just to the north of Donegal bay ,would be nasty if it were to continue to drift further south

Saw that squarecircles , some potent looking charts there all right. GFS and ICON dropped the storm on last night's run but back again today, GFS as you say further North and ICON bringing the winds in over Ireland, now that is something you don't see everyday... ECM similar strength winds to ICON ! The shape of these systems is changing over the last few runs but strong winds showing up at some stage in some part of Ireland by the looks of it. Of course still time to drift further North but has the look of making some contact I think. Even got an early mention on the weather forecast last night after the news showing a chart with a severe storm and mentioning potential for extremely strong winds.

The Jet powering up this week will lead to some unpredictability with this storm system.

Probably now is a good enough time to start a dedicated Storm Watch Thread to keep a close an eye on this.

Current ECM 12Z : Fri early morning shows a deepening storm just off the NW. Continues windy until further very strong winds arrive later in the day from another vigorous wave like system developing from the main storm .

ECM has been the most consistent with this over the last few days I reckon.

All open to change one way or the other over the next few days.
















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03-12-2018, 20:52   #2
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ICON strongest most direct impact winds of the bunch.



Still a bit out of the reaches of ARPGEGE atm, showing the strongest winds missing us on this run . More accurate in a day or so , one way or the other .






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03-12-2018, 21:01   #3
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Turning much cooler Fri after a relatively mild Thurs . Wintry precipitation perhaps on high ground. Looks like convective potential bringing hail and heavy showers and perhaps thunderstorms. To me has the look of being a harsh day feeling raw in the wind.

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03-12-2018, 22:05   #4
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18z brings the core of the strongest winds further south,grazing the west and northwest
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03-12-2018, 22:07   #5
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Lock up your daughters and trampolines it's gonna get wild
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03-12-2018, 23:01   #6
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At this far out UKMO and NOAA very similar.









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03-12-2018, 23:06   #7
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Feck...if you guys didn't post these threads,we wouldn't be having these storms....instead it would just be breezy with a lot of rain....
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03-12-2018, 23:11   #8
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The Jet picking up this week , powering up and steering the systems close to us.

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04-12-2018, 07:57   #9
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Still some scatter in the guidance, the GFS and GEM both have a fairly severe looking gradient by Friday 0300-0600h.

The general set-up and date remind me of one of Ireland's worst ever wind storms, 8 Dec 1886. A record low pressure in the 920s was observed in Ulster, much damage was reported in Ireland and northwest England, and ships were sunk in the Irish Sea. The map from the wetterzentrale archive, while accurate in general, fails to show the last few isobars around the centre so it was even more fierce than it looks here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanaly...maps=24#mapref

(hope that works, if not, navigate to 12z map on 8 Dec 1886).

Not saying this will repeat, but it's the sort of west-to-east track that exposes all of the country to severe wind gusts blowing through gaps in the terrain from Atlantic to Irish Sea.

If there is good model consensus on this later today an advance alert will likely be issued. I have mentioned potential for gusts to 120 km/hr but that might be conservative if some guidance verifies.
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04-12-2018, 09:19   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by M.T. Cranium View Post
Still some scatter in the guidance, the GFS and GEM both have a fairly severe looking gradient by Friday 0300-0600h.

The general set-up and date remind me of one of Ireland's worst ever wind storms, 8 Dec 1886. A record low pressure in the 920s was observed in Ulster, much damage was reported in Ireland and northwest England, and ships were sunk in the Irish Sea. The map from the wetterzentrale archive, while accurate in general, fails to show the last few isobars around the centre so it was even more fierce than it looks here:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanaly...maps=24#mapref

(hope that works, if not, navigate to 12z map on 8 Dec 1886).

Not saying this will repeat, but it's the sort of west-to-east track that exposes all of the country to severe wind gusts blowing through gaps in the terrain from Atlantic to Irish Sea.

If there is good model consensus on this later today an advance alert will likely be issued. I have mentioned potential for gusts to 120 km/hr but that might be conservative if some guidance verifies.
Thanks for the update MT. You mentioned in your daily forecast this morning that we are heading into a cool dry period once the stormy weather abates late Friday.

After that, you have pegged the period 21st-23rd as potentially stormy. From your research , is Ireland on course for a cold snap in the last week of December? I know you issued preliminary thoughts on the upcoming winter for Ireland but do you anticipate issuing a final winter forecast over the coming week?

Believe it or not, it's one of the highlights of the year here on weather boards!

Thanks
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04-12-2018, 11:34   #11
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Latest weather models show an increasingly likely chance that Ireland will receive damaging winds from an intense Atlantic storm depression later this week.

That's according to Midlands Weather Channel expert Cathal Nolan, who posted his latest findings on social media this morning.

"While the storm is a considerable time away at present, early estimates suggest that if the storm system develops as projected, then wind speeds may gust between 140 - 16o km/hr across parts of May, Sligo, Leitrim, Donegal, Derry and Antrim, where status red warnings would in all likelihood be issued," said Mr Nolan.

And it would be rough across the rest of the country too, with winds elsewhere expected to reach between 120 and 140 km/hr which, according to Mr Nolan, would mean widespread orange weather warnings would also be issued, should the potential storm develop as indicated by the latest weather models.


"What makes this storm particularly dangerous in comparison to more recent storms is the fact that it’s projected to develop rapidly close to Ireland, meaning it’s full affects will be felt, and also there exists a higher chance of witnessing sting jet development also," he said.

A sting jet is a meteorological phenomenon, which can cause severely damaging winds.
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04-12-2018, 11:37   #12
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Midlands Weather Channel...
Hmmmm....
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04-12-2018, 11:39   #13
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We are supposed to travel from Donegal to Dublin on Friday at midday to go to the zoo for the Christmas lights show however I'm having doubts as whether that's wise or not given the potential weather expected. Can anyone advise whether Dublin will see storm conditions?
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04-12-2018, 12:08   #14
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We are supposed to travel from Donegal to Dublin on Friday at midday to go to the zoo for the Christmas lights show however I'm having doubts as whether that's wise or not given the potential weather expected. Can anyone advise whether Dublin will see storm conditions?
No one will have any clear idea until Thursday really
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04-12-2018, 12:24   #15
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Big spread in the models this morning with a lot of uncertainty. ECM showing weaker winds on the latest run , up to 110 -120 km/h on coasts , Others showing strongest winds in the NW 110 - 130km/h , more so on the coasts. Windy day across Ireland,up to 80 - 90 km/h in general but timing , track and strength all to be ironed out with more changes over the coming days.

Nobody can say for certain atm which way this will go.
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