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Storm Francis - 24th/25th August 2020

2456

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Dublin added to the warning

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Munster, Dublin, Wexford and Wicklow

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Very windy or stormy conditions are expected on Tuesday as Storm Francis crosses Ireland. Southwest winds veering westerly, reaching mean speeds of 55 to 65km/h, will bring widespread severe gusts of 90 to 110km/h (and possibly higher in exposed areas). Some disruption is likely and possibly structural damage.

    Valid: 06:00 Tuesday 25/08/2020 to 19:00 Tuesday 25/08/2020

    Issued: 10:55 Monday 24/08/2020

    Rainfall Warnings Updated

    Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Dublin, Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Louth, Wicklow, Offaly, Westmeath, Meath, Clare, Limerick and Tipperary

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Intense rainfall associated with Storm Francis is expected at times Monday night and Tuesday, leading to accumulations of 30 to 50mm with surface flooding.

    This rainfall will further elevate river levels and may result in river flooding also.

    Valid: 21:00 Monday 24/08/2020 to 21:00 Tuesday 25/08/2020

    Issued: 11:02 Monday 24/08/2020


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,219 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Orange rainfall warning added

    Status Orange - Rainfall warning for Connacht, Cavan, Monaghan, Donegal, Wexford, Cork, Kerry and Waterford

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Intense rainfall associated with Storm Francis is expected at times Monday night and Tuesday, leading to accumulations of 40 to 60mm (higher values in mountainous areas). The most intense rainfall is expected to ease off in southern counties during Tuesday morning. Some flash flooding likely.

    This rainfall will further elevate river levels and may result in river flooding also.

    Valid: 21:00 Monday 24/08/2020 to 17:00 Tuesday 25/08/2020

    Issued: 11:00 Monday 24/08/2020


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Yes GL i see a Yellow warning now for rain fall for much of the midland counties now. Do you believe the centre of the Low will stay the course predicted?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,483 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Showing my age here, quite a coincidence with the timing of this.

    Back in 1986, August 25th coincidentally (ex) Hurricane Charley struck the country.
    Not saying this is going to be anything like that of course.

    Image taken from Met E report at the time.

    524093.PNG

    Fax chart for tomorrow:

    524094.PNG

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭lolie


    I'll take what the Ecm is showing tomorrow morning

    524095.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,926 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Supercell wrote: »
    Showing my age here, quite a coincidence with the timing of this.

    Back in 1986, August 25th coincidentally (ex) Hurricane Charley struck the country.
    Not saying this is going to be anything like that of course.

    Image taken from Met E report at the time.

    524093.PNG

    Fax chart for tomorrow:

    524094.PNG

    I was in a caravan in wicklow that week.
    Im on a mountain overlooking the Atlantic now:)

    Will my chicken run be OK? :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 873 ✭✭✭StackSteevens


    I was in a caravan in wicklow that week.
    Im on a mountain overlooking the Atlantic now:)

    Will my chicken run be OK? :D

    Can your chickens do the breast stroke?


    I'm worried about my boundary stream (as the wife calls it) or ditch (as my neighbour calls it) flooding the lawn (as the wife calls it) or grass (as I call it)!

    It is looking ominously full of rocks, stones and gravel since last week's deluge. I wish I had a digger to clear it out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    How are percipitation rates measured for approaching storms?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Yes, I remember the flooding in Duleek from ex-Charly in 1986. Very similar type of system (Shapiro Keyser) and loads of water in it, though probably a lot more than Francis will have.

    1985, 1986...great years for severe weather as a young lad growing up.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,926 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    Where is this going to land?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Forecast for 06Z tomorrow morning. A slight northwards nudge for the centre compared to previous forecasts, which had it taking a track further south through the country.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082406_024.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Forecast for 06Z tomorrow morning. A slight northwards nudge for the centre compared to previous forecasts, which had it taking a track further south through the country.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082406_024.png

    GL how is the rate of percipatation forecast?Radar on shore will be accurate of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    bazlers wrote: »
    GL how is the rate of percipatation forecast?Radar on shore will be accurate of course.

    You mean how is it forecast or what the forecast rate is? Different models see things slightly differently, but Met Éireann's model posted earlier shows areas of 15-20 mm/h moving into the south and later the northwest and west, but this is the instantaneous rate and because it's moving may not reflect how much a certain area on the ground will receive. But Met Éireann's Orange warning speaks of storm totals of 40-60 mm in some places.


  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Thanks for reply by the way. No i mean how do they predict that one front is more moisture laden than another front. Is it echo soundings or somthing or are they gathering data and coming up with a number by how much convection there might be? Just curious.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    bazlers wrote: »
    Thanks for reply by the way. No i mean how do they predict that one front is more moisture laden than another front. Is it echo soundings or somthing or are they gathering data and coming up with a number by how much convection there might be? Just curious.

    It all generated by computer models, taking in current data and using complex physical equations to compute how different parameters will change at regular positions for timesteps into the future.

    Everything from surface land stations, ships reports, buoy reports, weather balloons, aircraft measurements and even satellite microwave and infrared measurements are used as starting points for these forecasts. The more reports we have the better the forecast can be, which is why the reduced number of aircraft reports this year has had some effect on the quality of forecasts, though many countries (Ireland included) have been sending up more weather balloons to try to bridge the gap (though hard to do that with a huge ocean to our west).


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 915 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Matt Hugo posted the attached on twitter regarding rainfall predictions.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,315 ✭✭✭nthclare


    It all generated by computer models, taking in current data and using complex physical equations to compute how different parameters will change at regular positions for timesteps into the future.

    Everything from surface land stations, ships reports, buoy reports, weather balloons, aircraft measurements and even satellite microwave and infrared measurements are used as starting points for these forecasts. The more reports we have the better the forecast can be, which is why the reduced number of aircraft reports this year has had some effect on the quality of forecasts, though many countries (Ireland included) have been sending up more weather balloons to try to bridge the gap (though hard to do that with a huge ocean to our west).

    I remember there around 6 years ago I was out bodyboarding on a reef near Spanish Point in Co Clare, the swell was 4ft and supposedly rising gradually.
    With a light offshore breeze and the wave distance was around 14 seconds so a 4ft swell at 14 seconds can be double over head when it breaks over a reef.
    Maybe 11 foot

    A well known surfer paddled out and said he checked the bouy report and there was a sudden pitch in the height and it's around an hour and a half before it comes ashore.

    We laughed but thought about it,sure enough after a while this guy said here it comes, a set of 5 wave's I paddled over 3 the next two nearly killed me, I was pulverised and left on the shore line bartered and my ego up my arse lol

    Now I checked them out online for my own safety :)


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just looking through the charts on the phone and in general they appear to be a bit less strong in the SW and the strongest winds keeping more along or slightly off the S coast, still a good strong yellow warning mind you. A new feature of this system is a tighter gradient showing now in the afternoon / early evening for the SE and E where it could get very windy for a time. Need to keep an eye on this.

    Rainfall totals look increased for the Northern half of the country as was mentioned earlier, where the fronts pivot will see very heavy rainfall, seeing the W and N get very heavy falls and the NE might be very heavy yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 501 ✭✭✭Mr_A




  • Registered Users Posts: 700 ✭✭✭bazlers


    It all generated by computer models, taking in current data and using complex physical equations to compute how different parameters will change at regular positions for timesteps into the future.

    Everything from surface land stations, ships reports, buoy reports, weather balloons, aircraft measurements and even satellite microwave and infrared measurements are used as starting points for these forecasts. The more reports we have the better the forecast can be, which is why the reduced number of aircraft reports this year has had some effect on the quality of forecasts, though many countries (Ireland included) have been sending up more weather balloons to try to bridge the gap (though hard to do that with a huge ocean to our west).

    Ah very good. Bit more complex than long division: )


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 873 ✭✭✭StackSteevens


    Matt Hugo posted the attached on twitter regarding rainfall predictions.

    Scandalous that he omitted the bottom of West Cork which is where bad weather comes to die!

    Happily, the Med Eireann tweet showed me everything that I needed to know.


  • Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭markjbloggs


    Guess what - another storm on the way, another outage for Shannon radar. What a joke....


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    Guess what - another storm on the way, another outage for Shannon radar. What a joke....

    Thought you were joking but nope. And a rain storm at that. Ffs ridiculous


  • Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭markjbloggs


    Thought you were joking but nope. And a rain storm at that. Ffs ridiculous

    Went down as last weeks storm approached also? What are these guys up to?


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    Went down as last weeks storm approached also? What are these guys up to?

    Wonder do they do it on purpose for the suspense as we wonder whether it will be up in time for the storm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    bazlers wrote: »
    Ah very good. Bit more complex than long division: )

    Ah no...:pac:


    524128.JPG


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z analysis, showing it at 1000 hPa around 48N 34W. Still not deepening all that quickly, falling only 3 hPa in 6 hours.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082412_000.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,536 ✭✭✭typhoony


    that's the strangest weather warning Map I've seen from Met Eireann, Co. Clare only given a yellow while north and south is orange


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    typhoony wrote: »
    that's the strangest weather warning Map I've seen from Met Eireann, Co. Clare only given a yellow while north and south is orange

    Have to agree with you there are they saying the heavy rain is going to stop when it reaches Clare then get heavy again when it reaches Connacht


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Have to agree with you there are they saying the heavy rain is going to stop when it reaches Clare then get heavy again when it reaches Connacht

    lol...

    Just read that they are warning people to stay away from the coasts. Hmmmmmmm

    Marine gales also now.

    Oh and thunder and lightning

    Off to get some sleep before it kicks off; I have been known to sleep through bad storms,

    Enjoy and stay safe !


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,152 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Looks to me that the counties that got Orange are the ones with sufficient uplands for a South Westerly weather system to dump lots of rain on the windward side.

    Maybe Clare's hills don't qualify as sufficiently large/high to extract too much water from the system.
    But as someone who bog slogged across the top of Moylussa yesterday, I beg to differ.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭lolie


    You'd wonder about some people.
    I thought my ears and nose were deceiving me but no, a local farmer decided it was a great day to go spreading slurry today and all the warnings for rainfall up this side.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    typhoony wrote: »
    that's the strangest weather warning Map I've seen from Met Eireann, Co. Clare only given a yellow while north and south is orange

    It'll probably be included later. Warnings for now seem to correspond solely with what the model outputs are showing.

    New Moon



  • Posts: 31,118 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    lolie wrote: »
    You'd wonder about some people.
    I thought my ears and nose were deceiving me but no, a local farmer decided it was a great day to go spreading slurry today and all the warnings for rainfall up this side.
    Sure, wash it into the ground, or nearest watercourse!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    With the Harmonie forecast sequence posted earlier the warning map looks accurate enough. Clare does escape most of the heaviest rain, which passes to its south tonight and then to its north tomorrow.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,774 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Sure, wash it into the ground, or nearest watercourse!

    Exactly - lolie must live near me!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Meanwhile guess who saw fit to issue his own warning map while quoting Met Éireann's warnings?

    524146.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,926 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    lolie wrote: »
    You'd wonder about some people.
    I thought my ears and nose were deceiving me but no, a local farmer decided it was a great day to go spreading slurry today and all the warnings for rainfall up this side.

    Call the epa.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,867 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Meanwhile guess who saw fit to issue his own warning map while quoting Met Éireann's warnings?

    524146.jpg

    His minions are hilarious... he's like a Daniel O'Donnell figure to the clueless Facebook housewives that follow him.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭lolie


    Meanwhile guess who saw fit to issue his own warning map while quoting Met Éireann's warnings?

    attachment.php?attachmentidd=1598287628

    Your Friend Cathal?
    Please share! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,381 ✭✭✭lolie


    Call the epa.

    I had a chat with him just after i posted earlier and he seen sense and hasnt been out since.
    Lucky he only has a small tractor and tank so he spread very little.
    He just didn't keep up to date with the forecast but that doesn't excuse that carry on.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    I keep hearing over the last day or two that this current depression is 'unusually deep' which will bring 'unusually strong winds for the time of year' etc. But are such depressions really that rare in August? Here is another example of a deep depression from all the way back in August 1979, which had disastrous consequences off our south coast:

    CIVgJAp.png

    From: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06319.x

    Even last August (earlier in the month I think) I remember getting caught out in the middle of nowhere as a similar shaped, if not as strong, system moved up from pretty much the same direction. Such depressions are unusual in August, but I really wonder how unusual they really are.

    New Moon



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 420 ✭✭Little snowy old me


    Very quiet in here considering that we could see some exceptional rainfall in the next 48 hours.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The wind potential has backtracked a little, nothing more than a gale now. Also eventhough the ppn is heavy it doesn't stay around too long.
    So for me nothing of note other than wet and windy


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Light rain here near Tralee, light SE'ly.

    15,4C, DP 13C, Bar 1004.9 hPa Falling Rapidly

    Outer bands making there way in now even though the storm is still well off the coast, the center wont begin to cross the Clare / Galway coast until early tomorrow morning about 06.00 or 07.00, not a very fast moving system.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,647 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    Barely a drop failing in the city.
    Wind forecasts don't look pretty strong for tonight?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Oneiric 3 wrote: »
    I keep hearing over the last day or two that this current depression is 'unusually deep' which will bring 'unusually strong winds for the time of year' etc. But are such depressions really that rare in August? Here is another example of a deep depression from all the way back in August 1979, which had disastrous consequences off our south coast:

    CIVgJAp.png

    From: https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/j.1477-8696.1997.tb06319.x

    Even last August (earlier in the month I think) I remember getting caught out in the middle of nowhere as a similar shaped, if not as strong, system moved up from pretty much the same direction. Such depressions are unusual in August, but I really wonder how unusual they really are.

    They're not that rare, given that many originate as ex-tropical systems. Given that heat can be most established over the continent at this time it can lead to a jigging-up of the jetstream, generating these types of systems. They don't occur every year alright, but I would say several times a decade.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Windy enough all the same especially Munster from early morning until later in the afternoon. , certainly a Yellow warning , even high end in places . Some models like the UKMO and ICON showing the SE and E being very windy from tomorrow afternoon until later in the evening.

    F1h5UDB.gif

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    anim_byz6.gif


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,069 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Model rainfall predictions

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    3ZGaZip.png


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