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Storm Francis - 24th/25th August 2020

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13567…10

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    #62
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Forecast for 06Z tomorrow morning. A slight northwards nudge for the centre compared to previous forecasts, which had it taking a track further south through the country.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082406_024.png


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    #63
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Forecast for 06Z tomorrow morning. A slight northwards nudge for the centre compared to previous forecasts, which had it taking a track further south through the country.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082406_024.png

    GL how is the rate of percipatation forecast?Radar on shore will be accurate of course.


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    #64
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    bazlers wrote: »
    GL how is the rate of percipatation forecast?Radar on shore will be accurate of course.

    You mean how is it forecast or what the forecast rate is? Different models see things slightly differently, but Met Éireann's model posted earlier shows areas of 15-20 mm/h moving into the south and later the northwest and west, but this is the instantaneous rate and because it's moving may not reflect how much a certain area on the ground will receive. But Met Éireann's Orange warning speaks of storm totals of 40-60 mm in some places.


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    #65
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Thanks for reply by the way. No i mean how do they predict that one front is more moisture laden than another front. Is it echo soundings or somthing or are they gathering data and coming up with a number by how much convection there might be? Just curious.


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    #66
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    bazlers wrote: »
    Thanks for reply by the way. No i mean how do they predict that one front is more moisture laden than another front. Is it echo soundings or somthing or are they gathering data and coming up with a number by how much convection there might be? Just curious.

    It all generated by computer models, taking in current data and using complex physical equations to compute how different parameters will change at regular positions for timesteps into the future.

    Everything from surface land stations, ships reports, buoy reports, weather balloons, aircraft measurements and even satellite microwave and infrared measurements are used as starting points for these forecasts. The more reports we have the better the forecast can be, which is why the reduced number of aircraft reports this year has had some effect on the quality of forecasts, though many countries (Ireland included) have been sending up more weather balloons to try to bridge the gap (though hard to do that with a huge ocean to our west).


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    #67
    downwiththatsor
    Registered Users Posts: 910 ✭✭✭downwiththatsor


    Matt Hugo posted the attached on twitter regarding rainfall predictions.


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    #68
    nthclare
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,316 ✭✭✭nthclare


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    It all generated by computer models, taking in current data and using complex physical equations to compute how different parameters will change at regular positions for timesteps into the future.

    Everything from surface land stations, ships reports, buoy reports, weather balloons, aircraft measurements and even satellite microwave and infrared measurements are used as starting points for these forecasts. The more reports we have the better the forecast can be, which is why the reduced number of aircraft reports this year has had some effect on the quality of forecasts, though many countries (Ireland included) have been sending up more weather balloons to try to bridge the gap (though hard to do that with a huge ocean to our west).

    I remember there around 6 years ago I was out bodyboarding on a reef near Spanish Point in Co Clare, the swell was 4ft and supposedly rising gradually.
    With a light offshore breeze and the wave distance was around 14 seconds so a 4ft swell at 14 seconds can be double over head when it breaks over a reef.
    Maybe 11 foot

    A well known surfer paddled out and said he checked the bouy report and there was a sudden pitch in the height and it's around an hour and a half before it comes ashore.

    We laughed but thought about it,sure enough after a while this guy said here it comes, a set of 5 wave's I paddled over 3 the next two nearly killed me, I was pulverised and left on the shore line bartered and my ego up my arse lol

    Now I checked them out online for my own safety :)


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    #69
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,830 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Just looking through the charts on the phone and in general they appear to be a bit less strong in the SW and the strongest winds keeping more along or slightly off the S coast, still a good strong yellow warning mind you. A new feature of this system is a tighter gradient showing now in the afternoon / early evening for the SE and E where it could get very windy for a time. Need to keep an eye on this.

    Rainfall totals look increased for the Northern half of the country as was mentioned earlier, where the fronts pivot will see very heavy rainfall, seeing the W and N get very heavy falls and the NE might be very heavy yet.


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    #70
    Mr_A
    Registered Users Posts: 500 ✭✭✭Mr_A


    That's a lot of rain..

    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1297888150652674051


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    #71
    bazlers
    Registered Users Posts: 692 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    It all generated by computer models, taking in current data and using complex physical equations to compute how different parameters will change at regular positions for timesteps into the future.

    Everything from surface land stations, ships reports, buoy reports, weather balloons, aircraft measurements and even satellite microwave and infrared measurements are used as starting points for these forecasts. The more reports we have the better the forecast can be, which is why the reduced number of aircraft reports this year has had some effect on the quality of forecasts, though many countries (Ireland included) have been sending up more weather balloons to try to bridge the gap (though hard to do that with a huge ocean to our west).

    Ah very good. Bit more complex than long division: )


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    #72
    StackSteevens
    Closed Accounts Posts: 873 ✭✭✭StackSteevens


    downwiththatsor wrote: »
    Matt Hugo posted the attached on twitter regarding rainfall predictions.

    Scandalous that he omitted the bottom of West Cork which is where bad weather comes to die!

    Happily, the Med Eireann tweet showed me everything that I needed to know.


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    #73
    markjbloggs
    Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭markjbloggs


    Guess what - another storm on the way, another outage for Shannon radar. What a joke....


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    #74
    SleetAndSnow
    Registered Users Posts: 4,677 ✭✭✭SleetAndSnow


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    Guess what - another storm on the way, another outage for Shannon radar. What a joke....

    Thought you were joking but nope. And a rain storm at that. Ffs ridiculous


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    #75
    markjbloggs
    Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭markjbloggs


    SleetAndSnow wrote: »
    Thought you were joking but nope. And a rain storm at that. Ffs ridiculous

    Went down as last weeks storm approached also? What are these guys up to?


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    #76
    munsterlegend
    Registered Users Posts: 6,143 ✭✭✭munsterlegend


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    Went down as last weeks storm approached also? What are these guys up to?

    Wonder do they do it on purpose for the suspense as we wonder whether it will be up in time for the storm.


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    #77
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    bazlers wrote: »
    Ah very good. Bit more complex than long division: )

    Ah no...:pac:


    524128.JPG


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    #78
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    12Z analysis, showing it at 1000 hPa around 48N 34W. Still not deepening all that quickly, falling only 3 hPa in 6 hours.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2020082412_000.png


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    #79
    typhoony
    Registered Users Posts: 1,490 ✭✭✭typhoony


    that's the strangest weather warning Map I've seen from Met Eireann, Co. Clare only given a yellow while north and south is orange


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    #80
    Storm 10
    Registered Users Posts: 5,879 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    typhoony wrote: »
    that's the strangest weather warning Map I've seen from Met Eireann, Co. Clare only given a yellow while north and south is orange

    Have to agree with you there are they saying the heavy rain is going to stop when it reaches Clare then get heavy again when it reaches Connacht


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    #81
    Graces7
    Registered Users Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Have to agree with you there are they saying the heavy rain is going to stop when it reaches Clare then get heavy again when it reaches Connacht

    lol...

    Just read that they are warning people to stay away from the coasts. Hmmmmmmm

    Marine gales also now.

    Oh and thunder and lightning

    Off to get some sleep before it kicks off; I have been known to sleep through bad storms,

    Enjoy and stay safe !


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    #82
    josip
    Registered Users Posts: 13,645 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Looks to me that the counties that got Orange are the ones with sufficient uplands for a South Westerly weather system to dump lots of rain on the windward side.

    Maybe Clare's hills don't qualify as sufficiently large/high to extract too much water from the system.
    But as someone who bog slogged across the top of Moylussa yesterday, I beg to differ.


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    #83
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYw73KGr-Mw

    New Moon



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    #84
    lolie
    Registered Users Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭lolie


    You'd wonder about some people.
    I thought my ears and nose were deceiving me but no, a local farmer decided it was a great day to go spreading slurry today and all the warnings for rainfall up this side.


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    #85
    Oneiric 3
    Registered Users Posts: 6,235 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    typhoony wrote: »
    that's the strangest weather warning Map I've seen from Met Eireann, Co. Clare only given a yellow while north and south is orange

    It'll probably be included later. Warnings for now seem to correspond solely with what the model outputs are showing.

    New Moon



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    #86
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    lolie wrote: »
    You'd wonder about some people.
    I thought my ears and nose were deceiving me but no, a local farmer decided it was a great day to go spreading slurry today and all the warnings for rainfall up this side.
    Sure, wash it into the ground, or nearest watercourse!


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    #87
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    With the Harmonie forecast sequence posted earlier the warning map looks accurate enough. Clare does escape most of the heaviest rain, which passes to its south tonight and then to its north tomorrow.


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    #88
    looksee
    Registered Users Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭looksee


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Sure, wash it into the ground, or nearest watercourse!

    Exactly - lolie must live near me!


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    #89
    Gaoth Laidir
    Registered Users Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Meanwhile guess who saw fit to issue his own warning map while quoting Met Éireann's warnings?

    524146.jpg


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    #90
    SouthWesterly
    Registered Users Posts: 6,483 ✭✭✭SouthWesterly


    lolie wrote: »
    You'd wonder about some people.
    I thought my ears and nose were deceiving me but no, a local farmer decided it was a great day to go spreading slurry today and all the warnings for rainfall up this side.

    Call the epa.


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    #91
    sparrowcar
    Registered Users Posts: 2,815 ✭✭✭sparrowcar


    Gaoth Laidir wrote: »
    Meanwhile guess who saw fit to issue his own warning map while quoting Met Éireann's warnings?

    524146.jpg

    His minions are hilarious... he's like a Daniel O'Donnell figure to the clueless Facebook housewives that follow him.


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