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Commodities (including Gold BUGS)

13

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭Mach 3


    That was some performance by Palladium last week - the best Commodity by far last week. Platinum wasn't shy either.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,769 ✭✭✭nuac


    Any views on gold at present?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    nuac wrote: »
    Any views on gold at present?

    Going a lot higher. I’m seeing the late 70s on steroids. A currency crisis basically. Fed monetizing debt at the rate of 1 million dollars per second. All other central banks following suit. Gold could end up smashing the 10000 mark in a few years. Equities and real estate will decline by 90% against gold. I put the probability of this scenario about 50:50.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    I don't know if it's a dead cat bounce but maybe miners are starting to get some love again. Topped barrick and Kinross earlier. Crazy moves of the earlier lows.

    Both up more than 50% from when this was posted. Well done. It takes guts to buy when others are fearful.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭Mach 3


    nuac wrote: »
    Any views on gold at present?

    Looks like the high for the week is in. Fundamentals are not there to support increase. IMHO


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Mach 3 wrote: »


    Looks like the high for the week is in. Fundamentals are not there to support increase. IMHO

    What price you looking at? Quite the gap between spot and futures.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭Mach 3


    pearcider wrote: »
    What price you looking at? Quite the gap between spot and futures.

    Right you are.

    Gold Futures - Jun 20 (GCM0)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Mach 3 wrote: »
    Right you are.

    Gold Futures - Jun 20 (GCM0)

    I think the fundamentals are sound. The only way gold can be stopped is if the central banks raise rates.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 373 ✭✭JMMCapital


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Try swapping some gold for a packet of Paracetamol and let us know how you get on. Should not be any problem if it is money as you claim...

    You actually can pay for goods with Gold, checkout the ‘Gold card’ by Goldmoney...

    https://www.goldmoney.com/


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,522 ✭✭✭✭retalivity


    Looking at buying silver & platinum, wheres the best (and most reputable) places to buy? Looking to minimise spread, vat if held offshore, etc.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    retalivity wrote: »
    Looking at buying silver & platinum, wheres the best (and most reputable) places to buy? Looking to minimise spread, vat if held offshore, etc.

    European mint is based in Estonia so vat free silver. I have used them and they are reliable.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭Mach 3


    Originally Posted by Voltex
    My own worry in is in the realm of corporate bonds. The level of non-financials corporate borrowings as a % of GDP is the highest since records began in the US...basically corporations gorging on almost zero rate loans. When some of the investments banks started citing tougher trading conditions in Q2, fund managers started pulling money from equities and into fixed income - hence the yield curve inversion, which is all the way from the 1 year/20 year.

    There's some very big US corps badly exposed like GE whose bonds are trading close to junk right now. Therefore as an alternative...I'd be buying gold, but not as a currency hedge.

    27/08/19

    mono627 wrote: »
    100%. That BBB market is frightening with the sheer amount of debt. Junk bond market won’t be able to take a downgrade of any of the bigger boys (GM, GE, AT&T).

    If and when a recession actually comes along it’s going to be a complete clusterfcuk.

    Corporates really lost the run of themselves altogether.

    As you said just another reason to own gold at the moment.
    27/08/19
    Mach 3 wrote: »
    The way I see it we have three old fashioned variables that are going to come to a head over the next year:

    1) People
    2) Central Banks
    3) Political

    Slice or dice it any way you want, it will come down to the reaction of each variable to the other. Every thing else is peripheral.
    Same auld, same auld, but maybe just maybe this time is different.

    27/08/2019


    All in there, as expected.

    2)American central bank has moved. Massive stimulus
    3) Trump has moved. Opening Up America Again. Fiscal stimulus expected.
    1) The only variable left is the "People" and you would expect relief and confidence from the other two moves.

    Other countries to follow suit?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,481 ✭✭✭MfMan


    Price of oil continues to fall, 20-year lows now, in spite of recent agreements by OPEC+. WTI off a good bit overnight, with Brent also down a tad. Question, which of these, if any, influences *our* pump prices? Is WTI mainly for the US market?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 447 ✭✭iAcesHigh


    Reading through this thread I was wondering, how do you most often trade in commodities - futures, ETFs, shares of companies "producing them"?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,498 ✭✭✭BrokenArrows


    MfMan wrote: »
    Price of oil continues to fall, 20-year lows now, in spite of recent agreements by OPEC+. WTI off a good bit overnight, with Brent also down a tad. Question, which of these, if any, influences *our* pump prices? Is WTI mainly for the US market?

    it will influence the pump prices in a few weeks as it filters through.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,498 ✭✭✭BrokenArrows


    are there any crude oil tracker etf's which accurately track the price?
    Everything i can see on degiro is only down 10% while crude is down 40%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭dartboardio


    If anyone had of sold USOIL today they'd be after making some money!

    I caught it at the very end of the downtrend..

    Now I wonder when it will rise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 5 Driftmaster


    If anyone had of sold USOIL today they'd be after making some money!

    I caught it at the very end of the downtrend..

    Now I wonder when it will rise.

    Where are you trading it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,326 ✭✭✭el Fenomeno


    Re: silver - on Goldcore.ie there are 25oz tubes of coins you can buy. Why would a British coin be more expensive than an Austrian coin when you're buying the same weight (and I assume the same purity)?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 447 ✭✭iAcesHigh


    Re: silver - on Goldcore.ie there are 25oz tubes of coins you can buy. Why would a British coin be more expensive than an Austrian coin when you're buying the same weight (and I assume the same purity)?

    They also hold certain "numismatic" value. Hard for me to evaluate why "AT" would be more valuable then "UK" but might be they have produced less of those?


  • Registered Users Posts: 142 ✭✭aridion


    Hi guys, I am looking at Kirkland Lake gold. They seem like decent value right now.

    Barrick and other big miners don't seem the best value right now.

    Anyone, have any input (good/bad) about Kirkland, or any other gold stocks to keep an eye on?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    aridion wrote: »
    Hi guys, I am looking at Kirkland Lake gold. They seem like decent value right now.

    Barrick and other big miners don't seem the best value right now.

    Anyone, have any input (good/bad) about Kirkland, or any other gold stocks to keep an eye on?

    I like Kirkland Lake. It had the lowest all in sustaining costs of any miner in 2019 so clearly very well run. You can’t go wrong with Franco Nevada or Barrick either. I also like the Australian mid caps (St Barbara and Evolution mining). Always pay their dividends (but you have FX risk) no debt and exceptional management.

    Of course the time to buy all these was a month ago but we may get another panic and downturn before gold takes out 2000 USD.

    The small caps are a crap shoot but I personally like K92 mining. Explorers are extremely high risk but I like Nevada exploration, Gatling resources and Irving resources purely on management.

    You could also just buy the ETF. GDX AND GDXJ.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,436 ✭✭✭dartboardio


    Where are you trading it

    Using mt4 platform with BDSwiss as my broker.

    Now Bdswiss have disabled trading oil due to it hitting negative levels but other brokers are okay. I signed up to oanda and hope to throw a long position on tomorrow morning.

    All done through mt4.

    AXI and Bdswiss have disabled oil and a few other brokers so maybe check out XM or Oanda.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,769 ✭✭✭nuac


    Gold now close to $2,000 an ounce, Thoughts anyone?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    nuac wrote: »
    Gold now close to $2,000 an ounce, Thoughts anyone?

    Never invest in anything who’s value is driven by fear and greed!


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  • Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭Thelonious


    I think another stock market crash is coming.



    I also think gold and silver will plummet along with stocks. But precious metals will come roaring back. It's going to be the only asset to promise a return for a few years. Money will flood into these markets.
    Bitcoin will go down and may mever come back.


    I won't be buying any more gold until it's been hammered down a bit. The last time I bought was at 1800 USD.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Thelonious wrote: »
    I think another stock market crash is coming.

    Yes and there will be another one after that and another one after that...
    Thelonious wrote: »
    Money will flood into these markets.
    Bitcoin will go down and may mever come back.

    So what at the end of the day it just facilitates barter in goods and services...

    None of this matters, the only thing that actually matters is that the underlying asset continues to grow in wealth.

    There is a reason why equities absolutely happens gold etc... over the long run:

    equities-gold.png

    inanimate objects can never grow wealth... they rely on fear and greed for their value.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Never invest in anything who’s value is driven by fear and greed!

    I did and I’m up 67% ytd. My philosophy is don’t invest in socialism.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Yes and there will be another one after that and another one after that...



    So what at the end of the day it just facilitates barter in goods and services...

    None of this matters, the only thing that actually matters is that the underlying asset continues to grow in wealth.

    There is a reason why equities absolutely happens gold etc... over the long run:

    equities-gold.png

    inanimate objects can never grow wealth... they rely on fear and greed for their value.

    One word sums up this post. Disingenuous.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    pearcider wrote: »
    I did and I’m up 67% ytd. My philosophy is don’t invest in socialism.

    Can somebody give me an idea of the costs associated with buying, holding, and selling physical Gold.

    According to GoldPrice Gold is now $2,035 per ounce.

    If I wanted to buy 10 ounces now:
    How much would I pay per ounce, would it be the $2,035 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the purchase (Commission fees, VAT etc)
    How much would it cost annually to hold in a secure location.
    If I was holding myself how much would the insurance costs be per annum.
    Any other associated costs

    If I wanted to sell my 10 ounces in one years time (assuming GoldPrice Gold is then $2,500 per ounce).
    How much would I get per ounce, would it be the $2,500 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the sale (Commission fees, VAT etc)


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  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    I did and I’m up 67% ytd. My philosophy is don’t invest in socialism.

    So that is about 1/60th of your investing horizon, where as the chart represents 100 years and how in heavens name would you even go about investing ins socialism.... you do not what socialism is right?


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    One word sums up this post. Disingenuous.

    Off you go.... show us what really happened then over the last 100 years....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Can somebody give me an idea of the costs associated with buying, holding, and selling physical Gold.

    According to GoldPrice Gold is now $2,035 per ounce.

    If I wanted to buy 10 ounces now:
    How much would I pay per ounce, would it be the $2,035 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the purchase (Commission fees, VAT etc)
    How much would it cost annually to hold in a secure location.
    If I was holding myself how much would the insurance costs be per annum.
    Any other associated costs

    If I wanted to sell my 10 ounces in one years time (assuming GoldPrice Gold is then $2,500 per ounce).
    How much would I get per ounce, would it be the $2,500 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the sale (Commission fees, VAT etc)

    All of these questions are answered on goldcore.ie, goldmoney.com and Bullonvault.com.
    Good luck.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,520 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Off you go.... show us what really happened then over the last 100 years....

    Over the last 100 years, stocks outperform everything else Jim.
    But right now, which is where we are, people are buying the Fed. That is the pure definition of fear and greed. It is NOT value investing. Please feel free to show how value investing can work while the Fed buys all markets....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    An Ri rua wrote: »
    Over the last 100 years, stocks outperform everything else Jim.
    But right now, which is where we are, people are buying the Fed. That is the pure definition of fear and greed. It is NOT value investing. Please feel free to show how value investing can work while the Fed buys all markets....

    Did equities outperform gold in the seventies? (Not a rhetorical question...I know that gold did extraordinarily well...I've no idea how equities fared).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    An Ri rua wrote: »
    All of these questions are answered on goldcore.ie, goldmoney.com and Bullonvault.com.
    Good luck.

    Looked in goldcore.ie, can't find the answer to any of my questions?


  • Registered Users Posts: 109 ✭✭Thelonious


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Yes and there will be another one after that and another one after that...



    So what at the end of the day it just facilitates barter in goods and services...

    None of this matters, the only thing that actually matters is that the underlying asset continues to grow in wealth.

    There is a reason why equities absolutely happens gold etc... over the long run:

    equities-gold.png

    inanimate objects can never grow wealth... they rely on fear and greed for their value.


    Yeah I know all that what's your point ? Inanimate objects can't go out of business or become insolvent.
    And if you're going to wave a chart at me give it some proper labels.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 234 ✭✭Mach 3


    Mach 3 wrote: »
    Be careful with that key resistance on gold. If you were in early it could wise to take a slice off and go for a pint. See how it is by the end of the week. Check out weekly closes around this level from years ago on the way down. It is easy to get back in after the air is clear.
    As far as I'm concerned silver broke key resistance weeks ago. The spike one night in 2016 didn't come close to the real key resistance level in Silver.

    From 03/09/19

    I have it at:

    Gold +33%
    Silver + 40%

    And the gap is widening.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    So that is about 1/60th of your investing horizon, where as the chart represents 100 years and how in heavens name would you even go about investing ins socialism.... you do not what socialism is right?

    The socialism I’m referring to is the central banks policy of buying up all the government debt they can ie direct monetisation which will destroy the capitalist system just like it did in Weimar a Germany to Chavez Venezuela. The only defence against this madness is precious metals and their proxies which corrupt central planners cannot counterfeit. I’m long gold and short debt monetisation.

    All of this has happened before. Read Hayek A road to serfdom. The more statist solutions we get, the more the real economic life of the nation will be degraded and destroyed.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    Off you go.... show us what really happened then over the last 100 years....

    Past performance...etc.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Can somebody give me an idea of the costs associated with buying, holding, and selling physical Gold.

    According to GoldPrice Gold is now $2,035 per ounce.

    If I wanted to buy 10 ounces now:
    How much would I pay per ounce, would it be the $2,035 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the purchase (Commission fees, VAT etc)
    How much would it cost annually to hold in a secure location.
    If I was holding myself how much would the insurance costs be per annum.
    Any other associated costs

    If I wanted to sell my 10 ounces in one years time (assuming GoldPrice Gold is then $2,500 per ounce).
    How much would I get per ounce, would it be the $2,500 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the sale (Commission fees, VAT etc)

    If you want to speculate you should buy the mining companies. When I refer to my gains, I am referring to my portfolio of mining equities.

    My bullion is up over 150% but I will never sell this position. That is for my children.


  • Registered Users Posts: 46 YossiA


    Cute Hoor, try Merrion Gold in Dublin, I just sold some Kruggerands to them, bought from them a few years ago. They also have Safe Deposit Boxes if you need storage. Professional and prompt service.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    The socialism I’m referring to is the central banks policy of buying up all the government debt they can ie direct monetisation which will destroy the capitalist system just like it did in Weimar a Germany to Chavez Venezuela. The only defence against this madness is precious metals and their proxies which corrupt central planners cannot counterfeit. I’m long gold and short debt monetisation.

    All of this has happened before. Read Hayek A road to serfdom. The more statist solutions we get, the more the real economic life of the nation will be degraded and destroyed.

    Ah yes the make it up it as you go along version, the one that is necessary in order to justify investing in an asset class that has consistently under performed.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    Past performance...etc.

    And that says it all.... too much listening to the talking heads and not enough homework.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    And that says it all.... too much listening to the talking heads and not enough homework.

    Since when have the talking heads talked about gold or indeed the obvious deterioration of western government finances since we’ve gone off the gold standard.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,788 ✭✭✭Cute Hoor


    YossiA wrote: »
    Cute Hoor, try Merrion Gold in Dublin, I just sold some Kruggerands to them, bought from them a few years ago. They also have Safe Deposit Boxes if you need storage. Professional and prompt service.
    pearcider wrote: »
    If you want to speculate you should buy the mining companies. When I refer to my gains, I am referring to my portfolio of mining equities.

    My bullion is up over 150% but I will never sell this position. That is for my children.
    Cute Hoor wrote: »
    Can somebody give me an idea of the costs associated with buying, holding, and selling physical Gold.

    According to GoldPrice Gold is now $2,035 per ounce.

    If I wanted to buy 10 ounces now:
    How much would I pay per ounce, would it be the $2,035 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the purchase (Commission fees, VAT etc)
    How much would it cost annually to hold in a secure location.
    If I was holding myself how much would the insurance costs be per annum.
    Any other associated costs

    If I wanted to sell my 10 ounces in one years time (assuming GoldPrice Gold is then $2,500 per ounce).
    How much would I get per ounce, would it be the $2,500 per ounce above
    What are the additional costs associated with the sale (Commission fees, VAT etc)

    Thanks YossiA and pearcider, but I'm trying to find out what the costs associated with buying, holding and selling physical gold (or indeed silver) are. Help please.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Did equities outperform gold in the seventies? (Not a rhetorical question...I know that gold did extraordinarily well...I've no idea how equities fared).

    Gold has outperformed the Dow Jones significantly since 1971...which was when the world went off the gold standard.

    But the reason gold will continue to go up into the future is that it’s chief competition for capital namely stocks and bonds are terrible value at the moment. Stocks are so overpriced on any metric you care to mention, that there is absolutely no room for debate. As for bonds, interest rates are way too low and what’s more they can never ever be raised again without crashing the over levered world economy.

    The Fed tried to raise rates for a few months but were forced to reverse the policy “the Powell pivot”. As of today the Fed has committed to buying an unlimited quantity of government debt. So in order to avert a bond market collapse they have pretty much committed to destroying the world reserve currency. Once inflation arrives, and rising silver and gold prices are indicating it is near, the Fed will be trapped.

    Jim can spout off whatever he likes but the fact is that gold is the only asset left.


  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,437 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    pearcider wrote: »
    Gold has outperformed the Dow Jones significantly since 1971.

    The DJIA is a unweighted index, which means a comparison to it is useless, but is regularly used by gold bugs to convince themselves. You need to take a total return index to do a proper comparison:

    shares.png

    You see the little black line versus the gold one? That's the reason we've yet to hear of anyone growing rich investing in gold.

    Now feel free to continue trying to convince yourself....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,036 ✭✭✭pearcider


    Jim2007 wrote: »
    The DJIA is a unweighted index, which means a comparison to it is useless, but is regularly used by gold bugs to convince themselves. You need to take a total return index to do a proper comparison:

    shares.png

    You see the little black line versus the gold one? That's the reason we've yet to hear of anyone growing rich investing in gold.

    Now feel free to continue trying to convince yourself....

    That’s a nice graph but is also pretty meaningless. After all gold is money. If you price equities in gold then they’ve performed horribly since 1971. The dollar has lost 95% of its value since the inception of the Fed.

    I have shown you the Fed is insolvent and in an liquidity trap but you have ignored that for some reason...But by all means continue to convince yourself that the current monetary debasement will end in anything other than disaster. Only when the gold price goes parabolic will you believe. Of course by then, it will be too late.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,664 ✭✭✭makeorbrake


    pearcider wrote: »
    I have shown you the Fed is insolvent and in an liquidity trap but you have ignored that for some reason...But by all means continue to convince yourself that the current monetary debasement will end in anything other than disaster. Only when the gold price goes parabolic will you believe. Of course by then, it will be too late.

    I take the point that currency shouldn't be an investment that you should expect a return on. However, there are times when it cant be ignored that such a return is possible. That's a combination of the constant that hard money provides against a backdrop of fiat currency debasement.
    Its possible that they may be able to contrive to kick the can down the road a bit more but sooner or later that fiat monetary debasement is going to have to be dealt with. There's going to have to be some sort of Bretton Woods reset in the not too distant.


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