Racing Uncertainties

1.45 Aintree Reserve Tank 18/1 ew , Tea Clipper 11/2 ew , Kid Commando 20/1 ew , Tommy Rapper 28/1 ew , Southfield Harvest 15/2 ew

5 places on offer, and my 5 against the field. All have good chances. Two are single figures, and Tea Clipper is a lot shorter than I hoped, but these will do me anyhow.

1.15 Newcastle St Basil 100/1 ew , Franks Fancy 11/1 ew

The 5/4 fav Erne River will most likely win this, but Franks Fancy is pretty much guaranteed to at least place here imo.
The other pick is both a hunch, and a punt.

2.33 Newcastle Lulu Baloo 11/1 ew

Cos I likee the name, and I can this daughter of Schiaperilli running a big race on her second handicap outing. Owned and bred by R W Metcalfe; I'm in little doubt that Andy Thornton will be 'really pleased' should mount of Tom Midgley, and in the care of Tim Easterby oblige. If she should oblige; it is, alas, unfortunate that we'll not be able to hear 'Fitzy' tell us how pleased he is; as he will most likely be in Liverpool waxing lyrical about 'young jockeys' , and how sad it is that some nonagenarian - who didn't quite make the ton - shuffled off this mortal coil (he might have different beliefs, as he may have seen some youtoob videos from truthtellers, but for t'sake off keeping his cushy gig; he'll pretend to give one).
So, it'll most likely Andrew Thornton gushing enthusiastically with his obvious upspeak, and pausing for effect that would make a local radio DJ think "maybe that could be ME on the telly... some....day... "

"Well done to all concerned.. Back to you in the studio ALix"

^^^^^

Unlike Andy, I, "The Threadstarter" already like the "lively outsider" " 'idden Gem" (or Glen maybe ) at double carpet Thornton... I don't have 2 wait for 'im to be backed into 12s or 14s, and then pretend that I would've given im a 'big-up' ; had (or should that be 'ad Andrew) the price not contracted significantly....

#All bs aside, I see Fitzy get a lot of flak on this site; and rightly so p'raps; but, in my book Thornton's worse; but then he doesn't have the ITV gig... So, there's dat

Deleted User wrote: »

2.33 Newcastle Lulu Baloo 11/1 ew

Cos I likee the name, and I can this daughter of Schiaperilli running a big race on her second handicap outing. Owned and bred by R W Metcalfe; I'm in little doubt that Andy Thornton will be 'really pleased' should mount of Tom Midgley, and in the care of Tim Easterby oblige. If she should oblige; it is, alas, unfortunate that we'll not be able to hear 'Fitzy' tell us how pleased he is; as he will most likely be in Liverpool waxing lyrical about 'young jockeys' , and how sad it is that some nonagenarian - who didn't quite make the ton - shuffled off this mortal coil (he might have different beliefs, as he may have seen some youtoob videos from truthtellers, but for t'sake off keeping his cushy gig; he'll pretend to give one).
So, it'll most likely Andrew Thornton gushing enthusiastically with his obvious upspeak, and pausing for effect that would make a local radio DJ think "maybe that could be ME on the telly... some....day... "

"Well done to all concerned.. Back to you in the studio ALix"

We'll, that's one on the board from about 12 of the picks that went to post so far.... Pity no sign of Andrew...

I'm pleased anyway :pac:

Deleted User wrote: »

3.20 Chepstow Ginistrelli 6/1 ew , Jersey Grey 10/1 ew

Two places here, and I think both these have claims. Think the 15/8 fav Bashful Boy may need further. Ginistrelli seems inconsistent, as he seems to win or come nowhere. He fell last time out in a grade higher race (Class 3 at Ludlow) , so maybe tomorrow he'll do better.

Jersey Grey is only 4, and his lto 4th at Taunton reads well here. Looks like it was a good race for the grade; where he finished just over 6 lengths behind Cooperess.

:):):):)

$ Sing Sha la la la la la la....... I'm in love with a Jersey Grey $

EE...... That's two on t'board

^^^^^^

Late selection that, so not counting for P & L... I'm in process of implementing rule - if it's less than 5 mins before off, they don't count.... It's merely for indecisive lurkers, if they want a last minute pick ... Always like to 'av 'em up at least 'alf an hour before the off, and no later than 10 mins if at all possible....

Leff

10/04

Running P & L +22.7pts

Invested 46pts + Burrows Saint GN (18/1 ew AP put up 06 Jan) + Canelo GN (NRNB ew put up Thursday) = 50pts. 3.20 Ginistrelli ew NR, 1.45 Southfield Harvest ew NR. 46pts in play.

Returns:

5.05 Blue Beret (done ew) places at 16/1 at a fifth the odds returning 4.2pts
5.40 Seaforth (done ew @ 12/1) wins at a quarter the odds a place returning 17pts
1.00 Danboru (done ew @ 12/1) places at a quarter the odds with #an indiscernible rule 4 returning 3.7pts (3.75 actually for ref. , but I just use first number after the decimal point)
3.20 Jersey Grey (done ew) wins at 14/1 at a quarter the odds a place returning 19.5pts
1.45 Tea Clipper (done ew) places at 8/1 at a fifth the odds returning 2.6pts
4.15 Johnbb (done ew @ 11/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 5p rule 4 returning 3pts
2.33 Lulu Baloo (done ew) wins at 16/1 at a fifth the odds a place returning 21.2pts
3.05 Mance Rayder (done ew @ 7/1) places at a fifth the odds with a 40p rule 4 returning 1.8pts
5.15 Burrows Saint (done ew @ 18/1) places at a fifth the odds returning 4.6pts

#calculated returns, and rule 4 appears to be 8.33pence? Was 7 horse race (discounting an earlier nr scratched before putting on bet - originally 8 declared ) and the 2nrs were priced at 9/2 and 15/2. Too confusing :mad:


Invested 46pts - returns 77.6pts

Profit for the day - 31.6pts

Running invested total - 1,831 pts

Total P & L +54.3pts

2.00 Huntingdon Loughan 4/1 win

This 6yr old is having his first go over fences. He's had 6 goes over hurdles without winning; however, myself and Dan consider him a long term chasing prospect, and we believe this is an eminently winnable race. This son of Yeats has ran before at Huntingdon, when he came third in a bumper. We're confident that he'll take to the fences, and be a big player here.

4.10 Windsor Roman Mist 16/1 ew


Cos someone mentioned him on another thread, and they get a few winners..

Gluck

12/04

Running P & L +54.3pts

Invested 8pts

Returns:

4.10 Roman Mist (done ew) places at 22/1 at a fifth the odds returning 5.4pts
6.50 Lopes Dancer (done win @ 5/1) wins returning 6pts

Invested 8pts - returns 11.4pts

Profit for the day - 3.4pts

Running invested total - 1,839 pts

Total P & L +57.7pts

13/04 Selections, as promised

Newton Abbot

3.30 Pollyamorous 50/1 ew

First run in a hurdles' handicap. Has had three goes over the sticks, and each appears to be better than the last (for all that the form is poor to moderate, but looks to be going in the right direction). A lower grade here, and am hoping the proper good ground can bring about further improvement. The sire Califet's progenies appear to act on top of the ground. May be a bit generously priced, owing to, perhaps, the mare's trainer Katherine Davis being a relative unknown in the training ranks. Caoilin Quinn good value for his 7lbs claim in this Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle. He's 5 from 35 this season.

Southwell

5.25 Chapati 14/1 ew , Galurin 12/1 ew

Chapati is a C & D winner from November. Trainer/Jockey combo of Coulson/Gregory in form.

Galurin also has the benefit of having an in-form trainer in Alistair Ralph, and Ciaran Gethings the jockey too. Galurin is having his 4th hurdles' run, and first in a handicap. Last time was his first run on good ground, where he was unruly before the start, ran keen, so a 30 length defeat probably nowhere near as bad as it looks all things considered. Not one for massive confidence, but can give him a sporting chance in this.

Newcastle

5.00 Joeljalu 16/1 ew

First run was in a bumper at the course, where he ran well for a long way. Had 3 runs on the flat proper since then; all of which were at about a mile. Those were all poor runs, but upped in distance to 1m. 4f. 98yds. should bring massive improvement I'd wager (which is exactly the point of this thread ). First run in Handicap, as well as first-time cheekpieces; and we're almost getting into handrubbing territory. Another who's not a mortgage job, but there be green shoots

6.00 Mikmak 15/2 ew

Drawn 8 of 10 here; which is the right side of the course to be on, in this, presumably 'straight' mile (most races over a mile here are on the straight - unless I'm mistaken). Has an absence to overcome, and is out of form; but his run over C & D last June reads well in the context of tomorrow's race (didn't have a great draw that day) , and he's been plummeting down the weights since. Going on form figures, the price is short, but at round about double figures I'm not too pushed about "value". Think he was about 10/1 when market opened up, but c'est la vie. I'm just a man, not a bot prowling markets for VALUE - a winner at 'crap value' still gets paid out on :cool: :P

8.00 Viva Voce 6/1 ew

Am hoping this 7fs on the Tapeta will suit. Another one who I wish was a bigger price. Connor Beasley gets the leg-up for the first time.

Gluck any who're following.. May fortune be still in ire favour

7.15 Fairyhouse

Decided to have a look at the bumper, and, as tricky as it is; it doesn't appear any harder to solve than any of the other 7 races before it.

The pen landed on two:

7.15 Mr Hailstone 20/1 ew
6/1 2nd fav in the probable SP. Owned and trained by S Donohue, he's had one run on the NH flat, when he came 5th on heavy at Navan. I'm hoping he'll like the good ground he faces later today.

7.15 Rathgearan 20/1 ew
One who's had two bumper tilts, with both on soft-heavy going. Also hoping he'll like this better ground. Of all the horses in this race that have had a run, those runs were mainly on ground with a lotta juice in it.

I was trying to find one at about 13/8 - 7/2 price-range on the card, so I could make a good case for it in the horsey forum; but drew a blank in that regard. Thinking was to try and get the ball rolling, and maybe some folk could throw out a decent priced one

Shudda looked at that race earlier, as I see that Rathgearan was a lot bigger earlier Might be a better price with other books.

8.15 Kempton Fortissimo 40/1 ew

15/04

5.55 Newcastle.. 3 places on offer, and gone for 4 ew here :P

The well is dry, and I can't seem to find much the last few days. Had a look at this race, and I think the odds on jolly Briardale is opposable; so I'm thinking it sort of makes the prices for the rest of them.

Siavash 14/1 , Clifftop Heaven 16/1 , Melgate Majeure 12/1 , & Vertice 20/1

2.40 Ayr Coded Message 12/1 ew , Aurora Thunder 9/1 ew

A tricky enough race to solve this, and it looks as though the likely winner on form is Alan King's 7/4 fav Didonato. Global Harmony; who is 2nd best in the betting at 3s for Dan Skelton looks vulnerable here I think. Would like to see Coded Message take a lead in this; but, while there are no obvious frontrunners; apart from perhaps the selection herself, she may well have to go on. This might be no bad thing, as if she's the best on show here, like I believe she may well be, the rest might have a job passing her.

I think 3ms on good/goodish ground is her bag, and although she will have to win off a higher rating than she has done before, it's not an impossible task. Her two wins have come heavy and soft/heavy at two and three miles; but, as noted, I think 3 on decent ground will be fine. Her last race was interesting, from the pov that she tackled 2 1/2m, and tried to make all. It was a good enough run; where she led/lost the lead, and regained it during the course of the race; but was ultimately overhauled, though she was, however, staying on at the end.
For that run she was dropped 5lb, and it was a good race ran in a fast time; so, as far as recent form goes, that's one good piece, I feel.

Aurora Thunder is another interesting one at the prices here. I can definitely see her travelling well through the course of the race, but whether she'll be good enough, I'm not sure. If she's good enough she can get involved, but although she may appeal as a win only proposition; it is an open enough looking race, and, though I am wary of the King jolly, up to a point; in the races where Didonato won/ran well, the times were nothing spectacular, so I think both the picks have reasonable shouts.

Was looking at the telly yesterday morning, and saw that Harry was 3 ahead, and they were saying that he was 1/5 for the Jockeys' Championship, and Hughesie was 10/3. So, with about 10 or so days to go until the winner be crowned, I thought I might've got around 3/1 for Brian to win. Don't have multiple accounts, but I could find no price for the British NH Jockeys' Championship - not even on Oddschecker. I don't know where they were pulling them odds from, cos I couldn't see any. Anyway, a win for the champ yesterday reduces the deficit to two, and I hope he goes on to win it. I do hope he doesn't get a winner here, where he rides Lily's Gem for S Crawford :P

Gluck if yis are puntin

7.10 Bath Essgee Nics 20/1 ew

Very nice price. Goes well at the course. Has won here before on firm over 10.... Today's trip is an extended 11fs race. Will likely be a frontrunner or two in this, and the selection; who is versatile regarding how he races, can hopefully be held up out the back by The Sniper, and Morris can watch the race unfold, and play his cards late.

Sat 17/04

4.20 Brighton Zulu Zander 6/1 win

Hoping this one can try and succeed to make all, and will hope he don't get much hassle for the lead (Really hope he leads)... A few in this who
like to/can lead as well. Selection is open to improvement, as he's only four.

7.00 Brighton Nozieres 13/2 win

Hoping the step up to a mile will suit.

Think these will do win only, as the first race is a sprint where it's really all about 'on the day', plus there's only two places. Second race, I feel if Nozieres takes to the mile she could win this 3yr old handicap, but if she don't; then she could finish nowhere. Nonetheless, they are both fair and decent prices.

Gluck

12.55 Bangor Kala Noire 14/1 ew

First run in a chase, and it's in a Class 5 handicap. Will take on trust that this 7yr old; who's up at the top of the handicap, is capable of a clear round in this. Fairly priced for an ew poke, who is obviously unexposed in this discipline. Certainly one of the more interesting ones - not that I looked at many :P That's the benefits of finding a big/biggish priced ew selection - one doesn't need to look at all the contenders....

12.40 Thirsk Kolossus win 4/1

On account of there being a big plunge on him..

See there's a big plunge on a J Mullins horse in Bangor just now - Tommie Beau, into 12s from 66/1 earlier

Deleted User wrote: »

12.25 Bangor Casa Tall 5/1 ew

Only 4th chase start. Yet to win in Britain. Has some good hurdles' form (without winning) in higher grades than this over similar trips on good ground. No standout contenders in this, and this is one that could well see some support. Last run was an improvement (over 2m 1f - same trip as today) on his previous two chase outings; the first of which was on heavy, and the second was over a couple of f's further. Going to go into bullish mode and suggest that he could go off as short as 7/4; if connections/market etc feel that he'll jump and travel better, with those 3 runs over fences under his belt.

Good luck

Won nicely, and wasn't unsupported... Didn't go anywhere near 7/4 tho' ... Good winner anyhow

Deleted User wrote: »

12.40 Thirsk Kolossus win 4/1

On account of there being a big plunge on him..

See there's a big plunge on a J Mullins horse in Bangor just now - Tommie Beau, into 12s from 66/1 earlier

Run for our money - 2nd is all tho Looked like the winner in stages in the last 100yds or so... Winner always looked like prevailing in the last 20/30 yards.... Where it counts :pac:

Deleted User wrote: »

Sat 17/04

4.20 Brighton Zulu Zander 6/1 win

Hoping this one can try and succeed to make all, and will hope he don't get much hassle for the lead (Really hope he leads)... A few in this who
like to/can lead as well. Selection is open to improvement, as he's only four.

7.00 Brighton Nozieres 13/2 win

Hoping the step up to a mile will suit.

Think these will do win only, as the first race is a sprint where it's really all about 'on the day', plus there's only two places. Second race, I feel if Nozieres takes to the mile she could win this 3yr old handicap, but if she don't; then she could finish nowhere. Nonetheless, they are both fair and decent prices.

Gluck

Best price 9/2 now... Books (from what I can see) split evenly between 7/2 , 4/1 , and 9/2, with one going 10/3...

Nozieres drifting... as well as the two picks in the Curragh race.. May not stop them... ~I reckon (hope anyway) one of them Curragh picks'll fill a top five spot.

A good day anyway regardless, but it'd be even better with another winner,, and 'Dave' has the powder down

17/04

Running P & L +35.5pts

Invested 11pts

Returns:

4.20 Zulu Zander (done win @ 6/1) wins returning 7pts
12.25 Casa Tall (done ew @ 5/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 8pts
12.55 Kala Noire (done ew @ 14/1) wins at a fifth the odds a place returning 18.8pts

Invested 11pts - returns 33.8pts

Profit for the day - 22.8pts

Running invested total - 1,882 pts

Total P & L +58.3pts

Had a look at the top 6 in the betting (7/1 - 11/1) and I think Aye Right, Mighty Thunder, and Notachance won't be far away.... Not backing them, as I can't really split them.... Happy enough with my ew pokes, and will hope at least two of them are in with a chance/travelling well 1/2 mile out. One of these races I guess ya 'have to have' a bet in :P