Property Market 2019

Mad_maxx · 11-09-2019 5:55pm

Outside Dublin is interesting, Galway city is back where as Limerick city is still rising

99problems1 · 11-09-2019 6:52pm

awec wrote: »

Because they didn't want to? There was absolutely nothing whatsoever from stopping them putting it up.

They didn't suddenly gain any new right to increase the rent. It didn't get any easier to increase the rent.

There is absolutely nothing to suggest that your rent would not have increased anyway.

Exactly and they would have continued to not want to if the rent cap basically didn't tell landlords to put it up by 4% a year.

The_Conductor · 11-09-2019 7:05pm

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Outside Dublin is interesting, Galway city is back where as Limerick city is still rising

Galway city had increased by wholly improbable amounts- whereas Limerick did not. Galway was in bubble territory- and living on hot air- Limerick- which had not experienced commensurate increases- was not living in the rarefied territory that Galway was experiencing.

Its entirely probable that Galway has a long way further to fall- but Limerick may be more sustainable in nature.........

The_Conductor · 11-09-2019 7:11pm

youwhoglue wrote: »

Lots of inaccuracies re Dublin rent prices, go straight to the daft report for the asking prices truth.
https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2019q2-daftrentalprice
https://www.daft.ie/report/2019-Q2-rental-daftreport.pdf
Page 21 - See pic

Those are asking rather than achieved prices.
Many viewings are now like tumbleweed- sure, desirable areas have people fighting for properties- but many areas are no longer experiencing the demand that many landlords seem to think is their right......... Asking prices- and achieved prices- are two entirely different kettle of fish...........

The_Conductor · 11-09-2019 7:14pm

awec wrote: »

Nobody is forcing them to put the rent up now. Why do you think it's more difficult to retain a good tenant in an RPZ?

Thats not the point.

The point is many landlords were perfectly happy to keep a good tenant- and willing to leave the rent be, as they appreciated the good relationship they had with their tenant. Now- a future tenant is entitled to freeload on the goodwill generated by a prior tenant. QED- the current decent tenant does not get the goodwill they would previously have enjoyed- as a landlord cannot trust that they will have a commensurate good relationship with a future tenant.

Its called the law of unintended consequences.

awec · 11-09-2019 7:19pm

99problems1 wrote: »

Exactly and they would have continued to not want to if the rent cap basically didn't tell landlords to put it up by 4% a year.

It doesn't tell them this at all.

It tells them if they want to up the rent, the maximum they can up it by is 4%.

awec · 11-09-2019 7:20pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Thats not the point.

The point is many landlords were perfectly happy to keep a good tenant- and willing to leave the rent be, as they appreciated the good relationship they had with their tenant. Now- a future tenant is entitled to freeload on the goodwill generated by a prior tenant. QED- the current decent tenant does not get the goodwill they would previously have enjoyed- as a landlord cannot trust that they will have a commensurate good relationship with a future tenant.

Its called the law of unintended consequences.

Given the soaring rents that forced RPZs to be introduced, I fear this notion of rents being left be was nowhere near as widespread as you want us to believe.

Rents hit their lowest around December 2011. Between then, and RPZs being introduced in December 2016, rents had risen around 50%. By 2016 we were above peak Tiger prices.

99problems1 · 11-09-2019 7:24pm

awec wrote: »

It doesn't tell them this at all.

It tells them if they want to up the rent, the maximum they can up it by is 4%.

I wonder how many people in Dublin, surrounding areas have not had a 4% increase? Any 1% increases? Highly doubt!

I even see landlords phrasing it like "due to government legislation we are raising the rent by 4%."

awec · 11-09-2019 7:28pm

99problems1 wrote: »

I wonder how many people in Dublin, surrounding areas have not had a 4% increase? Any 1% increases? Highly doubt!

I even see landlords phrasing it like "due to government legislation we are raising the rent by 4%."

On two occasions, my landlord (one of the big investment companies) didn't increase my rent despite being completely entitled to an extra 4%.

Of course, as I already said, there are some losers in RPZs. But we shouldn't try to pretend like this is anything other than a fraction of tenants. As said already, RPZs were designed to work make things a lot better for the vast majority, even if it made things a bit worse for the minority.

When making policy governments don't focus on wee Jimmy who has a handy relationship with his landlord, they look at things far more broadly. Int he case of rents, they were absolutely soaring year on year.

99problems1 · 11-09-2019 7:31pm

awec wrote: »

On two occasions, my landlord (one of the big investment companies) didn't increase my rent despite being completely entitled to an extra 4%.

Of course, as I already said, there are some losers in RPZs. But we shouldn't try to pretend like this is anything other than a fraction of tenants. As said already, RPZs were designed to work make things a lot better for the vast majority, even if it made things a bit worse for the minority.

When making policy governments don't focus on wee Jimmy who has a handy relationship with his landlord, they look at things far more broadly. Int he case of rents, they were absolutely soaring year on year.

Why 4% at all then? Why not 1% or 0%? Rents were already soaring 3 years ago.

awec · 11-09-2019 7:34pm

99problems1 wrote: »

Why 4% at all then? Why not 1% or 0%? Rents were already soaring 3 years ago.

Because there has to be a balance between giving tenants some level of stability, and allowing landlords to increase rent to cover increased costs and take some advantage of increased demand.

beauf · 11-09-2019 9:12pm

youwhoglue wrote: »

Lots of inaccuracies re Dublin rent prices, go straight to the daft report for the asking prices truth.
https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-2019q2-daftrentalprice
https://www.daft.ie/report/2019-Q2-rental-daftreport.pdf
Page 21 - See pic

Maybe I'm not seeing it, but those reports don't seem to mention how this aligns with population growth and immigration and emigration..

... Which is the demand. Because the shortage is not simply a supply issue. It's a increasing demand issue.

beauf · 11-09-2019 9:13pm

Also the population movement within the country.

beauf · 11-09-2019 9:31pm

awec wrote: »

...

....Of course, as I already said, there are some losers in RPZs. But we shouldn't try to pretend like this is anything other than a fraction of tenants. As said already, RPZs were designed to work make things a lot better for the vast majority, even if it made things a bit worse for the minority.

When making policy governments don't focus on wee Jimmy who has a handy relationship with his landlord, they look at things far more broadly. Int he case of rents, they were absolutely soaring year on year....

They still are. The difference its increasing more slowly in areas already at top prices, and much faster in the rest of the country as it catches up.

The main issue is supply and demand...

https://extra.ie/2019/05/14/news/irish-news/rental-market-starved-of-supply/amp

Mad_maxx · 11-09-2019 10:02pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Outside Dublin is interesting, Galway city is back where as Limerick city is still rising

Galway city had increased by wholly improbable amounts- whereas Limerick did not. Galway was in bubble territory- and living on hot air- Limerick- which had not experienced commensurate increases- was not living in the rarefied territory that Galway was experiencing.

Its entirely probable that Galway has a long way further to fall- but Limerick may be more sustainable in nature.........

As recently as 2016,Galway was 40% more expensive than Limerick, the gap is less than 10% now and rents are every bit as high in Limerick today

rightmove · 11-09-2019 10:29pm

awec wrote: »

I rented in Dublin from 2009 -> 2019. I saw (and lived) the effect of the policies.

My rent increased 3 or 4 times in that period. I am not naive enough to think the only reason my rent increased was the RPZs. In fact, my landlord, one of the big property investment companies, didn't even put it up every year, which sort of blows this "RPZs guarantee a 4% increase every year" notion out of the water.

Pre-RPZ I saw rent hikes of like 30% in 2 years. This is exactly why the RPZs were introduced.

Ok so tenant view only as I mentioned. I saw both sides of the coin

rightmove · 11-09-2019 10:34pm

awec wrote: »

It doesn't tell them this at all.

It tells them if they want to up the rent, the maximum they can up it by is 4%.

Ofcourse it tells them . Seriously like!!

OwlsZat · 11-09-2019 11:06pm

Has anyone seen the figures for the % of 2nd hand homes the councils are buying. Why aren't the council building houses was that not the way it used to be?

Greyian · 12-09-2019 11:51am

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-now-falling-for-first-time-in-seven-years-1.4016008

First decline in house prices (on an annual basis) in Dublin since October 2012.

beauf · 12-09-2019 11:57am

Behind Paywall. What is this report, its probably published somewhere else.

I don't think anyone will be surprised by this.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/latest-news/residential-property-prices-edged-up-in-year-to-july-38491575.html

beauf · 12-09-2019 12:01pm

Origin is CSO

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementpricesseptember2019/

One there on Population also

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

youwhoglue · 12-09-2019 12:04pm

The_Conductor wrote: »

Those are asking rather than achieved prices.
Many viewings are now like tumbleweed- sure, desirable areas have people fighting for properties- but many areas are no longer experiencing the demand that many landlords seem to think is their right......... Asking prices- and achieved prices- are two entirely different kettle of fish...........

Hence I said asking prices. Do you have a better indicator of rental rates achieved?

The_Conductor · 12-09-2019 12:10pm

youwhoglue wrote: »

Hence I said asking prices. Do you have a better indicator of rental rates achieved?

RTB Annual report- has the stats as reported to it by landlords when registering tenancies. Its as good as it gets. It'll be more accurate once the annual updating of tenancies comes into effect- however, that will be the cold hard data source that can't be disputed (once its available- its now in arrears of up to 3 years).

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:15pm

Greyian wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/dublin-house-prices-now-falling-for-first-time-in-seven-years-1.4016008

First decline in house prices (on an annual basis) in Dublin since October 2012.

What is happening in the past few months is a lot of what I suppose are marginal house coming on to the market, poorly maintained in some way, same kitchen and bathroom since the 80s. A sure indication that sellers are afraid of missing the top of the market and are selling now.

youwhoglue · 12-09-2019 12:16pm

beauf wrote: »

Maybe I'm not seeing it, but those reports don't seem to mention how this aligns with population growth and immigration and emigration..

... Which is the demand. Because the shortage is not simply a supply issue. It's a increasing demand issue.

Daft just report the figures they have.
Maybe if they published views per ad or correspondence per ad a demand curve could be indicated.

The_Conductor · 12-09-2019 12:20pm

mariaalice wrote: »

What is happening in the past few months is a lot of what I suppose are marginal house coming on to the market, poorly maintained in some way, same kitchen and bathroom since the 80s. A sure indication that sellers are afraid of missing the top of the market and are selling now.

Thats just one aspect of it.
The largest percentage falls in Dublin prices are in the >600k+ price brackets- not ye poorly maintained buy-to-let units that landlords are offloading. In the secondhand segment- executor sales are (according to estate agents) still comprising over half of all sales.
Its a complicated market- its actually getting more interesting- and potentially at the higher ends of the market, there may be bargains to be had.

beauf · 12-09-2019 12:27pm

mariaalice wrote: »

What is happening in the past few months is a lot of what I suppose are marginal house coming on to the market, poorly maintained in some way, same kitchen and bathroom since the 80s. A sure indication that sellers are afraid of missing the top of the market and are selling now.

A house like this is probably from an executor sale, and has probably take a year or two to get through the legal process. The high cost of refurbishment, difficulty in getting builders, probably means that more are deciding to offload at what most people see as some form of peak price. Its not worth doing them up to rent, or increase the sale price. There isn't enough of a margin in it. If you want it to live in yourself, and like the aspect and location. Only then does it become worthwhile to put the money into it. Personally I've been keeping an eye for places with a garage or space for a workshop. You really only get that in older places.

mariaalice · 12-09-2019 12:40pm

beauf wrote: »

A house like this is probably from an executor sale, and has probably take a year or two to get through the legal process. The high cost of refurbishment, difficulty in getting builders, probably means that more are deciding to offload at what most people see as some form of peak price. Its not worth doing them up to rent, or increase the sale price. There isn't enough of a margin in it. If you want it to live in yourself, and like the aspect and location. Only then does it become worthwhile to put the money into it. Personally I've been keeping an eye for places with a garage or space for a workshop. You really only get that in older places.

Not around here, and maybe badley maintained is an awkward way to put it but their is definitely more houses of a certain type comming on the market another type would be the small 3 bed with awakward garden or something else that make it a bit marginal in someway.

beauf · 12-09-2019 12:46pm

It's obviously the main reason due to uncertainty in the market. Peaked and Bexit..

Also our population is aging. Fair deal scheme had more demand than expected. So it might be causing people to get rid of property before it gets consumed by fair deal.

Not worth renting old property anymore for many due to combination of factors.

phunkadelic · 12-09-2019 1:41pm

bluelamp wrote: »

What? Rental prices halved in a lot of case.

I viewed a two bed apartment in clontarf in 2011 for 800 euros a month, a three bed house in kilmainham for 1000, and a two bed in drumcondra for 600. That was just Dublin.

Once you went out to the commuter towns, there were 4 bedroom houses in the likes of Maynooth, Naas, Drogheda, etc renting for 800-900 a month.

Student accomodation dropped further, complexes in the likes of Cork and Limerick dropped to as low as 50 euros a week per room.

Rental prices were on the floor from 2008 for the guts of five years - your post is simply untrue.

Yes, completely correct. We came back from Canada in 2011 and went to rent a 1bed apartment off Camden St.

Asking rent was €1200, but I could see the price history on daft had dropped from €1400 2 months previous. I used that to haggle them down to €1050 per month.
Now that would be unheard of now. Rent is probably about €1400 to 1600 on that place now.

terrydel · 12-09-2019 4:34pm

youwhoglue wrote: »

Daft just report the figures they have.
Maybe if they published views per ad or correspondence per ad a demand curve could be indicated.

Views per ad would be useless, sure a small number of people who have phone addiction and keep looking at the same house and refreshing could skew it, and loads of people do that kind of thing, human nature. A highly unreliable statistic.

terrydel · 12-09-2019 4:39pm

awec wrote: »

Given the soaring rents that forced RPZs to be introduced, I fear this notion of rents being left be was nowhere near as widespread as you want us to believe.

Rents hit their lowest around December 2011. Between then, and RPZs being introduced in December 2016, rents had risen around 50%. By 2016 we were above peak Tiger prices.

The rpz had to come in, simple as that. Problem is it came in after the horse had bolted. In fact, much stronger was needed, but no chance of that for many reasons.
Without rent controls, many would have had to endure more huge increases they simply couldnt afford. The supply/demand ratio was ridiculously in favour of landlords, something had to be done to ensure people could afford a roof over their heads. The fact that the current and previous government caused the situation that necessitated the sticking plaster of rpz goes without saying.

cruizer101 · 12-09-2019 4:41pm

terrydel wrote: »

Views per ad would be useless, sure a small number of people who have phone addiction and keep looking at the same house and refreshing could skew it, and loads of people do that kind of thing, human nature. A highly unreliable statistic.

Unless they are constantly deleting their cookies daft could account for that.

But that said I'm not how valuable views per ad are, I bought a house last year an no plans on moving anytime soon but still look on daft regularly to check local price. I click into ads that are interesting, not necessarily houses I would potentially buy, and I know a lot of people would do similar.
I would think ad views relation to actual interest in a property would have to be taken with a bucket of salt.

Compak · 12-09-2019 4:48pm

"Commenting on today's figures, Goodbody economist Dermot O'Leary said that house price inflation picked up modestly in Ireland in July, ending a 14-month run of deceleration.

"The market is a bifurcated one, with transactions and prices growing at affordable price points and falling at the premium end," he added."

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0912/1075463-residential-property-prices/

Humour Me · 12-09-2019 4:49pm

In addition don’t underestimate nosy neighbors checking out the photos. My Mam had people coming up to her after mass to comment on decking at the back of the house, the ad was only up on daft a few days.

Browney7 · 13-09-2019 10:55am

beauf wrote: »

Origin is CSO

https://www.cso.ie/en/csolatestnews/pressreleases/2019pressreleases/pressstatementpricesseptember2019/

One there on Population also

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/pme/populationandmigrationestimatesapril2019/

The CSO data is based on sales completed in the month of July is it? So realistically this would be sales activity and sales agreed which potentially occured a few months before that so there could be a bit of a lag between the published stats and what's going on on the ground?

I'd expect the next few month's figures for dublin to continue to flatline if not drop by a 1 or 2% based on the way the market has been looking the last few months if that's the case.

voluntary · 13-09-2019 2:00pm

Compak wrote: »

"Commenting on today's figures, Goodbody economist Dermot O'Leary said that house price inflation picked up modestly in Ireland in July, ending a 14-month run of deceleration.

"The market is a bifurcated one, with transactions and prices growing at affordable price points and falling at the premium end," he added."

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0912/1075463-residential-property-prices/

"... Asked about the housing market, he said he doesn’t see another 2008-style crisis there, noting that the quality of underwriting has changed since then, though he thinks the market will remain depressed as baby boomers try to sell the McMansions that millennials don’t like and Gen Z hates."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gundlach-sees-75-recession-chance-has-a-warning-about-the-corporate-bond-market-2019-09-12

beauf · 13-09-2019 2:32pm

voluntary wrote: »

"... ...as baby boomers try to sell the McMansions that millennials don’t like and Gen Z hates."....

...I had look up most of the words in that..

McMansions. I see a lot of them being heavily modernised.

voluntary · 13-09-2019 2:44pm

beauf wrote: »

...I had look up most of the words in that..

McMansions. I see a lot of them being heavily modernised.

Translating from America to Ireland: large, poor BER, poor quality, mainly timber framed, housing with high maintenance and keeping costs. Once a symbol of wealth, which the Discord generation doesn't really care much about or even dislike.

,

JDD · 13-09-2019 4:19pm

Is there that many McMansions in Ireland? I certainly don't see many in Dublin (unless it is on the absolute outskirts) - any baby boomers selling low-BER large houses tend to be period houses. I still think they'll be difficult to sell at the higher end of the market, but not because Milleniels or Gen Xers are turning their noses up.

beauf · 13-09-2019 4:29pm

I assume the equivalent in Ireland is not timber framed. Just larger low rated houses pre 2005 ish.

Padre_Pio · 13-09-2019 5:32pm

JDD wrote: »

Is there that many McMansions in Ireland? I certainly don't see many in Dublin (unless it is on the absolute outskirts) - any baby boomers selling low-BER large houses tend to be period houses. I still think they'll be difficult to sell at the higher end of the market, but not because Milleniels or Gen Xers are turning their noses up.

Loads in the countryside, less in Dublin

I call them farmers mansions, because when land is free you can spend spend spend on the house.
Friend comes from a family of six. They have a 7 bedroom house. 5 bedrooms have en-suite and there are three other bathrooms. 2 living rooms, an office, a large kitchen cum dining room with adjoining conservatory.
They're not rich by any means, and the fit and finish is crap.

Three of the kids have flown the coop, so there's just the parents and the youngest living in this massive house they could never afford to maintain.

13-09-2019 8:21pm

Absolutely, look down the countryside at all the one offs.

Iv seen some mad stuff built.

The_Conductor · 13-09-2019 8:31pm

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Absolutely, look down the countryside at all the one offs.

Iv seen some mad stuff built.

Have a look around Longford- some of the properties there are staggeringly awful.

tigger123 · 13-09-2019 8:56pm

I've seen a load of them in Galway. Makes you wonder why people would bother with them.

dontparkhere · 15-09-2019 4:42pm

Dun laoghaire rathdown area has taken one of the biggest hits. Does anyone feel they have an insight into which properties and areas within are suffering. It's quite a wide area and mixture of property/inhabitants.

Cyrus · 15-09-2019 4:43pm

dontparkhere wrote: »

Dun laoghaire rathdown area has taken one of the biggest hits. Does anyone feel they have an insight into which properties and areas within are suffering. It's quite a wide area and mixture of property/inhabitants.

It was the quickest riser so it'll be the first to come back when prices stabilise

The_Conductor · 15-09-2019 4:45pm

dontparkhere wrote: »

It's quite a wide area and mixture of property/inhabitants.

In the case of Dunlaoghaire/Rathdown- its the lack of mixture of property that is hitting the market that is having the greatest effect on the achieved prices. The percentage of executor sales of old family homes- is very probably higher than anywhere else in the country in DLR- and while there are some new property sales happening- they are very much in a minority.

Eric Cartman · 15-09-2019 6:00pm

JDD wrote: »

Is there that many McMansions in Ireland? I certainly don't see many in Dublin (unless it is on the absolute outskirts) - any baby boomers selling low-BER large houses tend to be period houses. I still think they'll be difficult to sell at the higher end of the market, but not because Milleniels or Gen Xers are turning their noses up.

theres not really, theres some large one offs which is the only way you can build a house with any sense of individuality in Ireland.

there are many houses finished poorly many finished well, cavan is full of one offs some amazing, some terrible.

The line about millenials and gen z is absolute crap, in general they don't want to learn to drive or own cars and want to be packed into cities so its not the houses they hate, its the location and accessibility to them.

Frankie2019 · 15-09-2019 8:00pm

Any advice for bidding in the current market (North County Dublin area)? Most recent news articles are indicating a decline in market values but from our experience EAs are not closing for anything less than asking price.

ww.independent.ie/life/home-garden/house-prices-fall-2-5pc-across-country-as-uncertainty-over-brexit-hits-market-38474675.html

Property Market 2019

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