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26-04-2020, 22:54   #46
M.T. Cranium
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On Saturday Mountdillon took a run at the MAX but came just short. That should end the campaign, IMT moved up to 10.1. Estimate that it will lose almost 0.1 per day although probably closer to a net fall of 0.3 over five days (26-30 Apr).
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29-04-2020, 22:18   #47
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After four weeks ...

IMT has slumped back to 9.9 (actually 9.94) and will probably finish on 9.8. The fourth week average was 10.9 (1.4 above normal).

MAX has likely finished now at 21.6 and MIN at -3.2. Dub(A) was -1.1 on the morning of the 28th.

PRC was down to just 32% of normal as the week was very dry. Ballyhaise was missing but assuming it to have under 10%, the week averaged just 7% of normal rainfall, most of that at Cork and Mullingar which got some rain, most of the rest had zero or traces. There will probably be enough rain today and tomorrow to reach perhaps 50-60 per cent of normal.

SUN has been quite consistent with this past week at 117% (704/600) and that leaves us close to 120%, probably more like 115% by end of play with these somewhat cloudier days. That does incorporate some uncertainty about missing data earlier for Shannon, will need to check the MS for a more reliable value.

As the first of May falls on Friday, the MS won't appear until at least the 4th (not sure if this is also a bank holiday weekend or if there is such an animal in 2020, the whole year seems to be a bank holiday so far). That means I will probably venture a provisional scoring table to keep your interest until I can check the official values. Don't forget to enter May (April ends tomorrow, I promise).
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01-05-2020, 13:29   #48
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IMT has finished on 9.9 C.

PRC looks like no more than 55%, not going to finalize that until I see the MS numbers as I'm not sure if all the quality control has been done, all the stations we use have final numbers posted though.

SUN was quite generous yesterday so I imagine it would be around 120% as before, there again, need to check that out.

Will post some provisional scoring later today if I find the time, or tomorrow otherwise. As it's apparently a bank holiday the MS won't appear until the 5th (I think) so would be a while getting the official scoring confirmed.

Looking at the forecasts would say Adam240610 has a pretty good score going despite a late penalty, he may also gain the advantage of reducing the boost for PRC with his 60% forecast. Has the closest IMT and fairly good numbers in general.

The late wet trend wasn't all that strong, and the cooler turn was also rather faint in Ireland, apparently it hit the UK Met Office pretty hard though (they just downgraded the CET by 0.3 which is unusually large).

Last edited by M.T. Cranium; 01-05-2020 at 13:35.
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02-05-2020, 00:35   #49
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Provisional scoring for April 2020

It will be several days before I can confirm the provisional values used for this scoring (with the bank holiday, Tuesday 5th will be the likely appearance of the MS.) ... for now, this is how things look, will update the annual scoring when this can be adjusted. For PRC, these are scores without any attempt to apply full minimum progression. This is because I can't be sure how to apply the boost until I see how well Adam's raw score turns out (13+ means reduced boost for the field, which is how these are shown now -- Adam is guaranteed 15 if the PRC is lower than 70%). These scores could be getting a boost if precip is outside the range 53 to 67 per cent. The boost for IMT has been applied as a 3 pt across the board boost. (raw IMT scores are all 3 lower than shown here) -- SUN scores will be adjusted so that part is most subject to change. The working assumption there is 120%.

FORECASTER ___________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN___Bonus (+sb) __ TOTALS


Rikand _________________19 _ 14 _ 18 _ 07 _ 10 ___ 3 _ 2 ____________ 73

sryanbruen _____________ 18 _ 11 _ 20 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 2 _ 3 ____________ 71

Kindred Spirit ___________ 15 _ 12 _ 17 _ 09 _ 10 ___ 6 _ 2 ____________ 71

Pauldry ________________ 17 _ 20 _ 08 _ 10 _ 08 ___ 4 _ 2 ____________ 69

Artane2002 _____________15 _ 12 _ 20 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 2 ____________ 69

Adam240610 __ (-8) _____ 23 _ 16 _ 12 _ 15 _ 08 ___ 2 _ 1 ______ 77-8 = 69


Con Sensus _____________17 _ 13 _ 18 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 4 _ 2 ____________ 69


Tazio __________________ 20 _ 04 _ 15 _ 13 _ 08 ___ 7 _ 1 ____________ 68

MrSkinner ______________ 19 _ 06 _ 19 _ 08 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 2 ____________ 61

John mac _______________18 _ 11 _ 13 _ 04 _ 08 ___ 5 _ 2 ____________ 61

Jpmarn ________________ 10 _ 09 _ 16 _ 07 _ 09 ___ 7 _ 2 _ 1 _________ 61

200 motels ___ (-10) _____ 17 _ 13 _ 20 _ 11 _ 06 ___ 1 _ 3 ______ 71-10=61

Sunflower3 _____________ 17 _ 14 _ 07 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 3 _ 2 ____________ 57


Normal ________________ 13 _ 09 _ 15 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 6 _ 3 _ 1 _________ 55


Bsal ___________________ 16 _ 01 _ 13 _ 07 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 2 ____________ 52

Dacogawa ______________ 17 _ 15 _ 09 _ 00 _ 03 ___ 5 _ 2 _____________51

M.T. Cranium ____________16 _ 09 _ 15 _ 01 _ 05 ___ 4 _ 1 _____________51

DOCARCH ______________12 _ 05 _ 11 _ 09 _ 08 ___ 4 _ 1 _____________ 50

Tae laidir _______________17 _ 16 _ 02 _ 02 _ 04 ___ 7 _ 1 _____________ 49

mickger844posts ________ 10 _ 00 _ 15 _ 07 _ 08 ___ 6 _ 2 _____________ 48

waterways ____ (-1) _____ 17 _ 00 _ 15 _ 03 _ 07 ___ 2 _ 1 _______ 45-1= 44

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ______17 _ 03 _ 09 _ 01 _ 07 ___ 6 _ 3 _ 1 ____ 47-3= 44

Joe Public ______________ 10 _ 00 _ 13 _ 02 _ 06 ___ 5 _ 3 _____________39

dasa29 ________________ 11 _ 09 _ 03 _ 02 _ 08 ___ 3 _ 2 _____________38

_____________________________________________________________________

As I had speculated, Adam had the highest total before late penalties but a few of you managed to squeeze past after that was applied, all scoring to be confirmed on the 5th. Annual updates added then.


------------------------------------------------------

(actual forecasts and scoring info)

FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ Max 12th loc'n

Adam240610 __ (-8) _____ 9.4 _ 22.0 _ -4.0 _ 060 _ 130 ___ 16.6 _ Moore park

Tazio __________________ 9.1 _ 20.0 _ -2.7 _ 075 _ 110 ___ 12.0 _ Cork Airport

Rikand _________________9.0 _ 21.0 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 120 ___ 16.0 _ Johnstown Castle

MrSkinner ______________ 9.0 _ 20.2 _ -3.3 _ 088 _ 098 ___ 17.2 _ Johnstown Castle

John mac _______________8.9 _ 22.5 _ -2.5 _ 097 _ 110 ___ 14.5 _ Mount Dillon

sryanbruen _____________ 8.9 _ 20.7 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 16.8 _ Oak Park

waterways ____ (-1) _____ 8.8 _ 24.5 _ -3.7 _ 098 _ 103 ___ 16.4 _ Shannon

BLIZZARD7 ___ (-3) ______8.8 _ 23.3 _ -4.3 _ 110 _ 103 ___ 14.0 _ Oak Park

Sunflower3 _____________ 8.8 _ 22.2 _ -1.9 _ 090 _ 105 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park

Pauldry ________________ 8.8 _ 21.6 _ -2.0 _ 083 _ 111 ___ 15.0 _ Phoenix Park

Tae laidir _______________8.8 _ 21.2 _ -1.4 _ 109 _ 090 ___ 12.8 _ Moore Park

200 motels ___ (-10) _____ 8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.2 _ 080 _ 100 ___ 17.8 _ Oak Park



Con Sensus _____________8.8 _ 20.9 _ -3.0 _ 090 _ 109 ___ 14.8 _ Phoenix Park


Dacogawa ______________8.8 _ 21.1 _ -2.1 _ 122 _ 083 ___ 14.1 _ Phoenix Park

M.T. Cranium ___________ 8.7 _ 20.5 _ -3.7 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 14.9 _ Moorepark

Bsal ___________________8.7 _ 19.7 _ -2.5 _ 090 _ 107 ___ 14.0 _ Mullingar

Kindred Spirit ___________ 8.6 _ 20.8 _ -2.9 _ 085 _ 118 ___ 14.0 _ Johnstown Castle

Artane2002 _____________8.6 _ 20.8 _ -3.2 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.2 _ Phoenix Park


Normal ________________ 8.4 _ 20.5 _ -2.7 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 13.5 _ loc'n points by climatology


DOCARCH ______________8.3 _ 19.1 _ -2.3 _ 085 _ 112 ___ 15.1 _ Shannon

dasa29 ________________ 8.2 _ 19.5 _ -1.5 _ 100 _ 110 ___ 16.0 _ Mullingar

Jpmarn ________________ 8.1 _ 19.5 _ -2.8 _ 090 _ 125 ___ 13.1 _ Phoenix Park

Joe Public ______________ 8.1 _ 19.2 _ -3.9 _ 099 _ 099 ___ 14.6 _ Oak Park

mickger844posts ________ 8.1 _ 18.5 _ -2.7 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 13.9 _ Johnstown Castle

_____________________________________________________________________

The consensus is average of 11th and 12th ranked forecasts for 22 forecasters.

For the location of warmest Easter max, we have this selection (showing what Con Sensus would score if it happens this way):

Phoenix Park (3 pts Con S) ___ 5

Johnstown Castle (3 pts CS) __ 4

Oak Park (2 pts Con S) ______ 4

Moorepark (2 pts Con S) _____ 3

Mullingar (2 pts Con S) ______ 2

Shannon (2 pts Con S) _______2

Cork, Mountdillon __
__ (1 point for Con S) _______ 1 each

and anywhere else would give Con zero points.
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05-05-2020, 11:31   #50
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All aspects of the provisional scoring are confirmed, the sunshine worked out to 120% of the 1981-2010 normals which themselves average 5.2 hours a day in our grid (156 hours would therefore be normal, the average was 186.3 hours). And the rainfall was 54% of normal, that verifies the details of the minimum progression as discussed. The MAX and MIN were confirmed as we had tracked them, so all is good over in that now uneditable scoring post, so I hereby declare it to be

Confirmed April scoring (see previous post)

will have the annual update available within an hour or so ...
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05-05-2020, 12:24   #51
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Updated annual scoring January to April 2020

The table is still ordered from total scores but now you can check your position in the annual best 10/12 format, since it's early I have posted your best three (of four if you have four). That will continue on until August (7/8) then will jog to 7/9 for September. Ranks for these values are shown at the end of each line in brackets. The table will follow this format until September then will follow the order of best 7/9 with the secondary ranking becoming total score at the end. Also new this month, after your rank overall (first number in the scoring line) you'll see your position last month for an idea of how you're moving against the field.




rank _ FORECASTER ________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr __TOTAL___ Best 3/4 (rank)


01_(01)_ Mrskinner _________86 _ 54 _ 72 _ 61 ___ 273 ____ 219 (1)

02_(02)_ Kindred Spirit ______61 _ 63 _ 71 _ 71 ___ 266 ____ 205 (t3)

03_(03) _sryanbruen ________47 _ 58 _ 88 _ 71 ___ 264 ____ 217 (2)



(04)_(04)___ Con Sensus ____70 _ 62 _ 59 _ 69 ___ 260 ____ 201 (5)


04_(07)_Artane2002 ________56 _ 63 _ 65 _ 69 ___ 253 ____ 197 (6)

05_(06)_Jpmarn ___________ 86 _ 51 _ 50 _ 61 ___ 248 ____ 198 (5)


(t05)_(t03)__ NormaL ______ 70 _ 50 _ 73 _ 55 ___ 248 ____ 198 (t5)


06_(14)_Rikand ____________68 _ 38 _ 64 _ 73 ___ 243 ____ 205 (t3)

07_(04)_Dacogawa _________ 73 _ 64 _ 53 _ 51 ___ 241 ____ 190 (t7)

08_(05)_M.T. Cranium _______69 _ 59 _ 60 _ 51 ___ 239 ____ 188 (10)

09_(t09)_Sunflower3 ________68 _ 60 _ 50 _ 57 ___ 235 ____ 185 (11)

10_(08)_DOCARCH _________ 58 _ 61 _ 62 _ 50 ___ 231 ____ 181 (13)

11_(17) _Adam240610 ______ 62 _ 38 _ 58 _ 69 ___ 227 ____ 189 (9)

t12_(18) _Pauldry __________ 63 _ 36 _ 58 _ 69 ___ 226 ____ 190 (t7)

t12_(t09)_mickger844posts ___55 _ 63 _ 60 _ 48 ___ 226 ____ 178 (14)

14_(t12)_Bsal _____________ 62 _ 54 _ 57 _ 52 ___ 225 ____ 173 (t17)

15_(16) _john mac _________ 64 _ 46 _ 52 _ 61 ___ 223 ____ 177 (t15)

16_(11)_Joe Public _________ 70 _ 65 _ 42 _ 39 ___ 216 ____ 177 (t15)

17_(t12)_Dasa29 ___________48 _ 70 _ 55 _ 38 ___ 211 ____ 173 (t17)

18_(15) _Tae laidir _________ 67 _ 49 _ 48 _ 49 ___ 213 ____ 165 (19)

19_(19) _BLIZZARD7 ________66 _ 36 _ 47 _ 44 ___ 193 ____ 157 (20)

20_(20) _200motels _________47 _ --- _ 75 _ 61 ___ 183 ____ 183 (12)

21_(21) _waterways ________ --- _ 54 _ 42 _ 44 ____140 ____ 140 (21)


22_(---)_Tazio _____________ --- _ --- _ --- _ 68 ____ 68

23_(22)_JCXBXC ___________ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 58

24_(23)_WesternStorm ______ 54 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 54

25_(24)_esposito ___________ 49 _ --- _ --- _ --- ____ 49

=================================================

So MrSkinner holds on to a fairly narrow lead in both contests, with Kindred Spirit second in total points and sryanbruen in second for the best 3/4 measure. Ranks of Normal and Con Sensus are given as if they were participants but anyone with lower ranks is not dropped down relative to them.
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13-05-2020, 13:45   #52
Rikand
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Knew I was doing well in aprl. My ranking needed that
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14-05-2020, 14:17   #53
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Shame I had a minus 8 haha, been so busy seem to always remember late for this now
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16-05-2020, 20:01   #54
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Yep, the thing about late penalties is that they are less punitive than redistribution of what could be advantage gained with access to later guidance (and the results already known to date). Depends on the actual case and how much a person might have consulted any recent model runs in making their late forecast. I've had cases where I needed to reduce MIN or MAX scoring over top of late penalties to equalize the scoring because some late entrants knew an exact value they thought would qualify.

But I suspect looking back over actual scoring and late penalties, there is no actual advantage gained in statistical terms and the penalized scores probably fall at random against non-penalized scores. So in that sense the penalty reverts to being punitive rather than just a fairness redistributor. Not that familiar with the advantage myself as never late (for some reason I always remember the contest deadline).
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