US Presidential Election 2020

Overheal · 25-10-2019 5:25pm

Danzy wrote: »

Hard to figure out why they aren't cutting more aggressively.

Guess they have their reasons.

Give the candidates rope to hang themselves; a hard cut would sure look like DNC manipulating the primary too much and the dropped candidates will still likely raise hell about it either way.

Manic Moran · 26-10-2019 7:15pm

CNN’s analysis dept has an interesting one on the effect in the swing states of impeachment.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/10/26/politics/impeachment-unpopular-swing-states-wisconsin/index.html

Just 43% of voters in these six states want to impeach and remove from office at this point. The majority, 53%, do not. This means that the margin for not impeaching and removing Trump in these states (+10 points) is running well ahead of Trump's margin in these states of about 1.5 points. Put another way, impeaching and removing Trump from office in these states is not a popular position.

That said, the poll does not reflect two items of reality. One is whether or not the current hearings actually discover something paricularly impeachable, which presumably will affect the swing, and the other is the fact that the Senate probably wouldn’t pass it anyway, which means that the effect of the process will be presumably minimized as the question seems to imply successful impeachment.

is_that_so · 28-10-2019 10:24am

Overheal wrote: »

Give the candidates rope to hang themselves; a hard cut would sure look like DNC manipulating the primary too much and the dropped candidates will still likely raise hell about it either way.

It's only a few months to the start of the selection process so no real reason to do what the primaries will do anyway.

Overheal · 29-10-2019 3:36pm

11 circuit upholds lower court decision on the DNC primary rigging case

“ The court’s ruling, affirming the lower court’s dismissal of the lawsuit, did little to reflect or instill confidence in the American electoral system. The ruling went in favor of the defendants not because of an absence of wrongdoing, but rather because it seemed impossible to fit their conduct into an appropriate legal context.”

https://lawandcrime.com/opinion/bernie-sanders-donors-lose-case-alleging-dnc-improperly-tipped-the-scales-in-favor-of-hillary-clinton/

Just confirming what some of us already knew. But it’s all politics so the courts are toothless.

The parties can run their primaries however they want, but I maintain they shouldn’t get federal monies if they’re doing it as a fix. Not to mention it does nothing for public trust (one of the things the framers spoke about in the federalist papers - tied it to impeachment too)

rossie1977 · 29-10-2019 7:25pm

Latest polls out this past week

Survey USA, Biden leads by 10 from Warren
The Hill/Harris Biden by 8 from Warren
Economist/YouGov Biden by 1 from Warren
CNN Biden by 15 from Warren
Quinnipiac Warren by 7 from Biden
Politico/Morning Consult Biden by 12 from Warren/Sanders

pixelburp · 29-10-2019 7:29pm

It is weird how steady Biden has stayed. I honestly can't figure it out; is it just that still congested field that's keeping his lead secure, his name-brand, or some mix of the lot?

marno21 · 29-10-2019 8:02pm

pixelburp wrote: »

It is weird how steady Biden has stayed. I honestly can't figure it out; is it just that still congested field that's keeping his lead secure, his name-brand, or some mix of the lot?

Familiarity and lack of extremism would be my two reasons. Familiarity because he was number two for the last normal administration, and the second reason because he sticks to the bread and butter issues without needing to resort to stuff that gets labelled as "socialism" or pandering to minority issues that the others have been guilty of that may win them a few votes but would turn off far larger numbers.

rossie1977 · 29-10-2019 8:57pm

pixelburp wrote: »

It is weird how steady Biden has stayed. I honestly can't figure it out; is it just that still congested field that's keeping his lead secure, his name-brand, or some mix of the lot?

I think alot of it has to do with his popularity in the South and plains ie traditional conservative strongholds. He is going to be competitive in North East, rust-belt and Pacific Coast but will clean up in South and across plains. Those voters aren't going to be swayed much by media controversies as we saw with Trump and even Roy Moore picked up big vote with sexual assault allegations hanging over him.

The latest polls in South Carolina have Biden leading by 12 and 17. The fact its left leaning Warren in second place highlights how bad the more conservative Democrats campaigns have been, people like O'Rourke and Harris should be ahead of Warren in deep south.

I expect Biden wins every state I coloured red in primary and most rather easily which obviously gives him big boost (edit to point out Iowa shouldn't be red there as that's a Dem battleground state in primary)

29-10-2019 9:08pm

pixelburp wrote: »

538 are running an interesting article, breaking down the fallback preferences of Democrat voters; title item being that Warren is very popular as the backup / second choice of other leading candidates. Also of interest is that Biden & Sanders' supporters have the largest percentage of supporters ONLY considering them.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/most-2020-candidates-have-something-in-common-their-supporters-also-like-warren/

Whatever about national elections, it does paint a picture that Warren's socialism seems to be more palatable than (say) Sanders'

I still don't think America will vote in a woman as president.

Brian? · 29-10-2019 9:54pm

pixelburp wrote: »

It is weird how steady Biden has stayed. I honestly can't figure it out; is it just that still congested field that's keeping his lead secure, his name-brand, or some mix of the lot?

He’s a good candidate running a good campaign. He may be too establishment for many online commentators, but he’s extremely well like and fondly remembered.

Also, he will destroy Trump in the debates.

The Phantom Jipper · 30-10-2019 12:12am

pixelburp wrote: »

It is weird how steady Biden has stayed. I honestly can't figure it out; is it just that still congested field that's keeping his lead secure, his name-brand, or some mix of the lot?

I think a lot of it has to do with people not necessarily paying a lot of attention just yet. He does a lot worse in Iowa and New Hampshire where the voters are presumably more engaged, which I don't think bodes well for him.

rossie1977 · 30-10-2019 1:21am

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

I think a lot of it has to do with people not necessarily paying a lot of attention just yet. He does a lot worse in Iowa and New Hampshire where the voters are presumably more engaged, which I don't think bodes well for him.

As long as he is at least competitive ie top 3 in northwest, rust belt he should be fine and tough to beat.

If he gets wiped out by Warren and Sanders from Maine down to DC and from Pennsylvania to Iowa he is obviously going to struggle.

Overheal · 30-10-2019 4:21pm

A leaked video of Warren talking to union bosses

https://www.mediaite.com/news/watch-the-full-leaked-then-scrubbed-video-of-elizabeth-warrens-meeting-with-union-executives/

Rjd2 · 30-10-2019 8:51pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

I think a lot of it has to do with people not necessarily paying a lot of attention just yet. He does a lot worse in Iowa and New Hampshire where the voters are presumably more engaged, which I don't think bodes well for him.

The boomers love Joe.

Every debate the internet is full of takes from lefty commentators who would never vote for him about how his campaign died that night and well yeah he is still more than standing.

Tulsi and Harris polling around the same is wild,,,Harris has to be the biggest flop of the campaign sadly.

The Phantom Jipper · 30-10-2019 9:53pm

Rjd2 wrote: »

The boomers love Joe.

Every debate the internet is full of takes from lefty commentators who would never vote for him about how supposedly his campaign that night and well yeah he is still more than standing.

Tulsi and Harris polling around the same is wild,,,Harris has to be the biggest flop of the campaign sadly.

I agree his supporters are drowned out as they're not the most visible and vocal but his support still seems a little soft to me. The more eyes he has on him, the faster his aura of being electable is going to evaporate. That's already started to happen in the early voting states. He doesn't even have the cash behind him that an establishment front runner usually has, which will make it more difficult to prop up his support.

Brian? · 31-10-2019 12:06pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

I agree his supporters are drowned out as they're not the most visible and vocal but his support still seems a little soft to me. The more eyes he has on him, the faster his aura of being electable is going to evaporate. That's already started to happen in the early voting states. He doesn't even have the cash behind him that an establishment front runner usually has, which will make it more difficult to prop up his support.

Biden will win the most super delegates, he's the candidate most likely to take back the rust belt from Trump. He doesn't scare old white voters, he attracts black voters due to his association with Obama and he does pretty well with Hispanics.

As Trump continues to self destruct he'll only look more presidential.

I honestly don't get the negativity. I wouldn't vote for him, he's too corporate, but that won't hurt him in the general IMO.

The Phantom Jipper · 31-10-2019 1:57pm

Brian? wrote: »

Biden will win the most super delegates, he's the candidate most likely to take back the rust belt from Trump. He doesn't scare old white voters, he attracts black voters due to his association with Obama and he does pretty well with Hispanics.

As Trump continues to self destruct he'll only look more presidential.

I honestly don't get the negativity. I wouldn't vote for him, he's too corporate, but that won't hurt him in the general IMO.

I've nothing against the guy but he has had a poor campaign so far. Maybe there's enough goodwill built up over the years that people will give him a pass but it wouldn't surprise me to see his campaign fall apart. It seems like his campaign is based around electability but not backed up by much else like fundraising, endorsements or early state polling.

Brian? · 31-10-2019 2:42pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

I've nothing against the guy but he has had a poor campaign so far. Maybe there's enough goodwill built up over the years that people will give him a pass but it wouldn't surprise me to see his campaign fall apart. It seems like his campaign is based around electability but not backed up by much else like fundraising, endorsements or early state polling.

What's been poor about his campaign so far? He essentially turns up and says "Vote for me I'm Joe Biden" and he's miles ahead in most polls.

The Phantom Jipper · 31-10-2019 3:19pm

Brian? wrote: »

What's been poor about his campaign so far? He essentially turns up and says "Vote for me I'm Joe Biden" and he's miles ahead in most polls.

You've alluded to part of the problem yourself; hanging your hat on people voting for you because they've heard of you before is a bit of a flimsy case for why you should be president.

Have you seen any of the debates? Did you find those impressive? They've been a very mixed bag to say the least, in my opinion. He doesn't seem to have a good ground game in the early states. His fundraising has been poor, as is his cash on hand etc. If his gradual decline in the polls continues, he won't credibly be able to make an electability case, and what then?

Zubeneschamali · 31-10-2019 3:21pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

Have you seen any of the debates?

The debates don't affect actual voters much, although pundits writing people off after the debates may.

Water John · 31-10-2019 4:22pm

The Democrat nomination looks like going all the way to Convention. Some interesting deals will be negotiated.

Brian? · 31-10-2019 4:54pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

You've alluded to part of the problem yourself; hanging your hat on people voting for you because they've heard of you before is a bit of a flimsy case for why you should be president.

Have you seen any of the debates? Did you find those impressive? They've been a very mixed bag to say the least, in my opinion. He doesn't seem to have a good ground game in the early states. His fundraising has been poor, as is his cash on hand etc. If his gradual decline in the polls continues, he won't credibly be able to make an electability case, and what then?

He hasn't been declining in the polls since July, check out the aggregate poll on 538. Some minor fluctuations the last 3 months but hes a trending back up in October

Brian? · 31-10-2019 4:56pm

Water John wrote: »

The Democrat nomination looks like going all the way to Convention. Some interesting deals will be negotiated.

I seriously doubt that. There hasn't been a single primary yet, way too early to know how this will pan out.

The Phantom Jipper · 31-10-2019 5:11pm

Brian? wrote: »

He hasn't been declining in the polls since July, check out the aggregate poll on 538. Some minor fluctuations the last 3 months but hes a trending back up in October

You seem to have chosen July because that was the trough in his polling. Why not May when he was up over 40%? Or September when he was back over 30? He's now in the mid 20s on average, that's a decline by any measure. And those are national polls, his decline in the early voting states is even more pronounced.

Anything to say on the other points I raised about his fundraising, ground game or debate performance? You seem to think those are going well at the moment?

rossie1977 · 31-10-2019 6:22pm

Biden announced his candidacy on April 25th so obviously early May was always going to be peak interest in him. Outside Warren everyone in Dem race peaked popularity wise when they first announced they were running.

Debates are not really effecting anything. The vocal online community might big up someone like Gabbard for a while but her numbers remain rock bottom. Trump himself was beyond awful in the debates vs Clinton, sniffling and acting like a stalker yet it didn't hurt him one bit

Brian? · 31-10-2019 7:10pm

The Phantom Jipper wrote: »

You seem to have chosen July because that was the trough in his polling. Why not May when he was up over 40%? Or September when he was back over 30? He's now in the mid 20s on average, that's a decline by any measure. And those are national polls, his decline in the early voting states is even more pronounced.

Anything to say on the other points I raised about his fundraising, ground game or debate performance? You seem to think those are going well at the moment?

I picked July because his polling numbers have been steady since then. Despite the issues you've mentioned.

The fall in numbers was inevitable as other candidates became more well known. But the fact that they have stabilised is also quite telling. Each debate, whether poor or ok, hasn't really budged the numbers.

I'm not rebutting your other points because I don't really see them as relevant right now.

Bad results in Iowa and New Hampshire will severely damage his campaign. But right now, it can hardly be said it's all negative. He's still a strong front runner.

eagle eye · 31-10-2019 10:42pm

Biden has been acting like someone in the early throws of dementia from what I've seen. He has no hope against Trump or any other Rep candidate imo.

duploelabs · 31-10-2019 10:50pm

eagle eye wrote: »

Biden has been acting like someone in the early throws of dementia from what I've seen. He has no hope against Trump or any other Rep candidate imo.

Oringes
Covfefe

Water John · 31-10-2019 10:50pm

That is just more nonsense. Biden always had a habit, like Bush Jnr of putting his foot on his mouth. I disagreed a lot with Bush but enjoyed his Bushisms and attributed no harm to them. I would apply a similar standard to Biden.

One has to differentiate between that and the constant blatant lies from Trump.

Danzy · 01-11-2019 10:35am

https://youtu.be/JtPQQjj01kM

Bill Maher on the Dems and how they are trying to out crazy Trump.

US Presidential Election 2020

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