Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

patneve2 · 11-01-2018 3:14pm

While the progged 850s aren't impressive, temps at the 500 hpa level may be the difference between wet snow and accumulating snow below 200m - we need these to be sub -35 heading towards -40.

Nothing to get excited about for me due to the wind direction, but still looks like the most potent PM air flow in a few years in my opinion. Could verge on disruptive +15cm on higher ground in the North. Still a long way to go so it could still realistically end up as the usual run of the mill miserable NWesterly, but I still think it will be a bit better than that.

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 3:52pm

derekon wrote: »

Love your enthusiasm Kermit!

I certainly would not be telling people there is heavy snow on the way!!!

A wee bit of realism folks!!

D

That's the problem. Even a mention of the word 'snow' and the 'locals' here start bulk buying. It happened in December, locals expecting blizzards because Met Eireann forecast said 'snow'. It's been 8 years since we've seen measureable snow in my area, yet the locals go into a panic. I'll expect the same again this weekend.

beefburrito · 11-01-2018 4:03pm

Its like the time back in the early 00's when there was a huge amount of snow forecast.
The snow came alright,but it blew right over our heads in the cloud's.
The clouds were a muggy brown color and quite low,the winds were North Eastern in direction.
Looking upwards you could see the speed of the cloud's passing over,as soon as it hit Wales and Liverpool it dumped almost a foot of snow.
If I was to describe the colours of the cloud's it was like what you'd see in an old black and white movie, swirling overhead....
The ground was bone dry too, perfect for the shnoow to settle.

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 4:14pm

Where are the most snow starved areas of Ireland now???

pad199207 · 11-01-2018 4:27pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Where are the most snow starved areas of Ireland now???

Here

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 4:29pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Here

Cheers.

fraxinus1 · 11-01-2018 4:32pm

Was just down at the local creamery and there is talk of very heavy snow next week in Donrgal. One or two people stocking up with extra animal feed and coal.

snowstorm445 · 11-01-2018 4:36pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Here

Most of Leinster and east Munster I’d say. And according to someone’s post a while ago, East Clare I think? :pac:

Some of them haven’t seen any lying snow since 2010 (and even then bits of the south coast saw much less than the rest of us).

Gonzo · 11-01-2018 4:46pm

squarecircles wrote: »

Where are the most snow starved areas of Ireland now???

I would say most of the greater Dublin region: Southern half of Meath, Dublin away from high ground, eastern half of Kildare, Wicklow away from high ground, Wexford, Waterford. These places really only get decent snow from a proper Siberian easterly and those are rare as hens teeth.

Perhaps some other areas like Tipperary, coastal areas of Cork, Clare and Kerry away from high ground and parts of the midlands see very little snow.

The counties that probably see snow each and every winter would be Donegal, Sligo, Mayo, Galway, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, not all parts see lying snow on an annual basis but they certainly see more white gold action than the rest of Ireland.

Villain · 11-01-2018 4:49pm

Also if people want to see lying snow they just need to head to higher ground, I've seen it on at least 5 different occasions this winter, sometimes having to climb highest point in Leinster but snow is often there, you just have to go looking. (when appropriate and when dressed and prepared for conditions)

Soccarboy11 · 11-01-2018 5:01pm

Ah I have to say Cork City hasn't seen proper snow in a while. Had some big flakes fall for about half an hour two years ago onto wet ground but never stuck. Cork county has had some snow stick, but the city (at least my part) hasn't had proper snow since about 2010. A lot of the East coast is the same I would gather from the posts on here too

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 5:25pm

Tuesday looks tasty on the latest 12z gfs,snow coming towards the immediate coastline in the west.

snowstorm445 · 11-01-2018 5:25pm

Soccarboy11 wrote: »

Ah I have to say Cork City hasn't seen proper snow in a while. Had some big flakes fall for about half an hour two years ago onto wet ground but never stuck. Cork county has had some snow stick, but the city (at least my part) hasn't had proper snow since about 2010. A lot of the East coast is the same I would gather from the posts on here too

Unfortunately it can be far too marginal in Cork city when it comes to snow. I remember hearing about the snow two years ago and my family, who at the time lived south of the city, had a good few inches that day (as did my grandmother who lives out in Tower) but it was very slushy in the city I think. Also recently on Stephen’s Day there was a load of snow in West Cork but cold rain in the city.

Plenty of precipitation around (unlike Dublin) but it’s often too marginal to be worthwhile.

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2018 5:32pm

Taken literally (don't do that!) the 12z GFS suggests it will start snowing next Monday evening and stop at some point on Friday! If only........

As a joking aside, the below chart showing 98% of the country by area getting snow might lead to a few annoyed posters on here!

JCX BXC · 11-01-2018 5:43pm

To be honest, I think some of this "snow starved" sh*te is very dramatic. Everyone thinks they got the least snow in their own house. I can tell you Dublin certainly gets alot more snow than here in West Clare!

Rebelbrowser · 11-01-2018 5:44pm

Two very contrasting models this afternoon.

On closer inspection the 12z GFS is glorious for snow lovers. I have huge doubts about the GFS, especially when it comes to predicting snow, but it basically shows uppers between -6 to -8, thickness sub 524 (and well sub at some stages), and negative dew points, for all from Monday night to Friday night. If that happens there is going to be snow for many you have to think.

HOWEVER, the GFS is, sadly, out on its own here. The 12z GEM for example shows upper temps about 4 degrees warmer and shows snow for a time over mountainy man on Wednesday night. And that's it.

I am afraid I would expect the latter, not the former given the GFS' track record on these. If the ECM is similar to the GFS later though then I will get excited.

Shedbebreezy · 11-01-2018 5:45pm

Just for fun before someone says their useless:p, first signs of snow accumulating by T102
102-780UK.GIF?11-12

Almost 1ft across Donegal
210-780UK.GIF?11-12

snowstorm445 · 11-01-2018 5:45pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Taken literally (don't do that!) the 12z GFS suggests it will start snowing next Monday evening and stop at some point on Friday! If only........

As a joking aside, the below chart showing 98% of the country by area getting snow might lead to a few annoyed posters on here!

Looks like everywhere except south Meath, ie. Gonzo’s house. :pac: (Jokes)

Captain Snow · 11-01-2018 5:45pm

Has anyone seen todays 12zz. Ireland is going to get pasted.

:eek:

Monday to Friday.

Villain · 11-01-2018 5:46pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Has anyone seen todays 12zz. Ireland is going to get pasted.

:eek:

If only! GFS and Northwesterly usually means disappointment.

Shedbebreezy · 11-01-2018 5:50pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Two very contrasting models this afternoon.

On closer inspection the 12z GFS is glorious for snow lovers. I have huge doubts about the GFS, especially when it comes to predicting snow, but it basically shows uppers between -6 to -8, thickness sub 524 (and well sub at some stages), and negative dew points, for all from Monday night to Friday night. If that happens there is going to be snow for many you have to think.

HOWEVER, the GFS is, sadly, out on its own here. The 12z GEM for example shows upper temps about 4 degrees warmer and shows snow for a time over mountainy man on Wednesday night. And that's it.

I am afraid I would expect the latter, not the former given the GFS' track record on these. If the ECM is similar to the GFS later though then I will get excited.

GEM ALWAYS shows uppers to be milder in these scenarios. Its a known bias.

squarecircles · 11-01-2018 5:50pm

18z should be fun so...

Captain Snow · 11-01-2018 5:55pm

squarecircles wrote: »

18z should be fun so...

It will be Legend

kod87 · 11-01-2018 5:56pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

GEM ALWAYS shows uppers to be milder in these scenarios. Its a known bias.

...and GFS tends to exaggerate how low the uppers are at this range.

So the truth will probably be a watered down version of GFS

Shedbebreezy · 11-01-2018 6:04pm

kod87 wrote: »

...and GFS tends to exaggerate how low the uppers are
So the truth will probably be a watered down version of GFS.

Not to the extent GEM underplays them. Anyway GFS is great for me in Donegal. I look forward to lots of snow next week.
To be fair I wouldn't be too enthusiastic if I was in Tipp either, certainly more watered down for there.

typhoony · 11-01-2018 6:09pm

GFS extends the cold spell all the way out to the 26th, although at that stage we're under light northerly winds

Malayalam · 11-01-2018 6:12pm

Ah for the love of God

I have a dental appointment for serious work that I have been waiting for for 6 months on Thursday. I live high enough in the north western hills for the snow to generally be our lot if there is any around, I have to walk 6 miles (in the very early morning) to get the bus to take me to town to go to said dentist, and now ye have me in a feckin' tizzy!

RobertKK · 11-01-2018 6:50pm

My weather on iPhone for the last few days has been showing snow for next week, initially on he Monday but then changed it to Tuesday, currently showing snow for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with a high of 3C, after that it says it stays cold but drier.
But I am on high ground here in Kilkenny, for Kilkenny city it says rain for Tuesday and Wednesday and snow on Thursday, where it will be 1 to 2C warmer.

Here on the hills (part of the Castlecomer plateau) we get snow every winter, even if just a dusting in a very mild winter. Never had a winter where I didn't see snow fall.
Already had 10 hrs of non stop snow on December 8th.

pad199207 · 11-01-2018 6:59pm

Shedbebreezy wrote: »

Not to the extent GEM underplays them. Anyway GFS is great for me in Donegal. I look forward to lots of snow next week.
To be fair I wouldn't be too enthusiastic if I was in Tipp either, certainly more watered down for there.

Someone is going to be bitterly disappointed....

lapua20grain · 11-01-2018 7:04pm

At this stage i'll only believe it when I see it falling from the sky

Greenland Express: Snow showers possible from Monday night

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