Backstop

tricky D · 11-12-2018 3:55pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

The DUP are really cutting off their nose to spite their face. Out of all the countries in Europe, wouldn’t Northern Ireland have had the best outcome of any of them?

Well being half-in and half-out presents all sorts of economic possibilities, but the DUP are so ideologically blinkered to see only NO that they have missed it completely.

spaceHopper · 11-12-2018 4:42pm

troyzer wrote: »

Although the Brits have largely given up on this idea that the German carmakers will make sure Britain gets a favourable deal, they still think that Merkel dictates European policy.

They talked about it recently on the Irish Times podcast. Their unfounded belief that the EU is a German pawn was one of the main reasons they left and also one of the main reasons they thought a deal would be easy.

They are probably right, during the "banking crisis" it was all Anagle and Sarkozi getting together having a chat and telling the plebs what to do.

sjb25 · 11-12-2018 6:58pm

Exclusive of Leo And mrs mays conversation

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lwx2ce_AyOE

Lefty Bicek · 11-12-2018 8:06pm

troyzer wrote: »

Although the Brits have largely given up on this idea that the German carmakers will make sure Britain gets a favourable deal, they still think that Merkel dictates European policy.

They talked about it recently on the Irish Times podcast. Their unfounded belief that the EU is a German pawn was one of the main reasons they left and also one of the main reasons they thought a deal would be easy.

The people who say that the EU is a German pawn... what are their reasons for saying so ?

zapitastas · 11-12-2018 8:21pm

theguzman wrote: »

For holding such a sway over the UK Government they really shortchanged themselves for £1bn they should have asked for £5bn at least. The Healy Raes in Kerry got something like €70-€100m off Bertie Ahern in Road Projects for Kerry for a single TD (MP).

Kind of reminded me of Dr evil negotiating in Austin powers where he put in such a low ball demand

dxhound2005 · 11-12-2018 9:04pm

I think there will be another referendum and they will end up staying. Which will be an even better result than if the original referendum had went the other way, 52% Remain.

The Brexiteers would have been back looking for more referendums until they got the result they wanted. If there is a new referendum resulting in Remain, that settles the issue for good. There is no way they could look for more referendums to leave after this shambles.

Of course they never accepted the result of the referendum in 1975 and they finally got their way in 2016. They can't complain that another referendum would be undemocratic, when they would not have accepted a small majority for Remain.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-12-2018 9:52pm

Mrsmum wrote: »

The DUP - would anyone care to explain their position to me, what power they have or haven't, their fears, their best case scenario, worst case.

First off the MP's in Westminster are independent of the local party, or might as well be. So they aren't for changing or listening. Which is a shame.

The rest of the DUP, like Borris and lots of protest voters all thought that Remain would win so they could safely be seen to fight the good fight Think Fr Ted "down with this sort of thing". It backfired spectacularly but to save face most of those involved have to keep up the pretence and continue the death march.

The Petition of Concern is a mechanism where the DUP can pretty much block anything in the Northern Ireland assembly.

Domestically the DUP are tied up with RHI , the "cash for ash" scam. The grants for renewable energy boilers meant free money if you could burn enough wood pellets. (one chap was on the verge of flying in a boiler from Austria). They also got a wad of cash for running an anti-Brexit ad in the Metro in the rest of the UK.

Best case - Remain , as long as they can safely vote against it. A border poll is meaningless if there is no difference which side you live, work, play or shop on.

Worst case - Hard Brexit, followed by being thrown under the bus by the Tories the first chance they get. UK economy drops so NHS, welfare and the NI subsidy all shrink, and the grass down here starts looking very green. And they are making it happen.

Witcher · 11-12-2018 10:07pm

troyzer wrote: »

On that subject, I can't honestly think of a single war since the early modern period which Britain either won on its own or as the largest member of a coalition.

Not one.

The Falklands?

troyzer · 11-12-2018 10:10pm

Witcher wrote: »

troyzer wrote: »

On that subject, I can't honestly think of a single war since the early modern period which Britain either won on its own or as the largest member of a coalition.

Not one.

The Falklands?

Ah yes, I forgot to further qualify that statement.

Against an equivalent power. Which Argentina certainly wasn't.

fly_agaric · 11-12-2018 10:44pm

Here we go wrote: »

What I don't get about the back stop is. It's there to prevent a hard border and that's great but it's so important to have it we'd rather have a no deal which will ensure a hard border

All the things the "true" Brexiteers (DUP, right of Conservative party) now want (all of UK incl. NI to exit single market, exit customs union, main EU institutions if not next March, then at some arbitrary point in future when they decide they are ready for it) are not compatible with having the current open border with NI in the long term.

What we want and what they want are thus mutually exclusive.

So getting this "backstop" in agreement is an attempt to try and get "our" way + keep the status quo at NI border at the risk of ending up in a worse situation if the UK do actually go through with their mad kamikaze Brexit.

Probably the risk here was judged to be much lower when we though UK politics was sane but its looking like they may actually go through with their self immolation now.

It is bad for Ireland either way really. Would hate to see our govt. bow down now though and give into these nutters and horrible bstards in British politics driving Brexit forward.

Capt'n Midnight · 11-12-2018 10:52pm

Witcher wrote: »

The Falklands?

That was a very close win.

Yes the UK converted container ships and car ferries into helicopter carriers in less than two month but you have to remember they had already sold one carrier to Oz and announced the scrapping of Hermes. Had Argentina waited a few months it would have been no contest. And they are repeating that mistake now. They sold off the last of the Harriers for a song, had they been mothballed the UK would still be able to cobble something together PDQ if needed. ( A fleet in being for the cost of air conditioning a warehouse ) Instead they'll have to wait years for operational carriers.

Without the US supplying the latest version of air to air missiles and other bits of kit it would have been very different. The US as an ally of Argentina and having done exercises with them, sold them down the river and provided the UK with all the manuals.

Against that they lost several Cod Wars with Iceland.

OK , back on topic.
27,000 troops couldn't prevent 40% of the vehicle fuel in NI being smuggled or laundered. A hard border will fund the men of violence. And that is why we can't have it back.

The UK keeps saying it doesn't want a hard border, and has actually signed off on it. (not just promised, signed) The have also suggest magic eborders and other ways it could happen.

Or more realistically there are mechanisms where UK suppliers could do minimal self declared customs checks and the EU is willing to go along with that as long as there isn't proof of widespread fraud. This isn't anything new either, on both sides of the border a blind eye has been turned to dodgy deals because the alternative is to stir up a hornets nest. The men of violence haven't gone away.

The backstop is insurance that won't be needed if the UK can deliver on it's promises.

If the UK and EU can do a deal on the border it won't be needed. The UK has promised that they will have a solution, the UK has signed off on this.

namloc1980 · 11-12-2018 10:52pm

spaceHopper wrote: »

It's funny how May heads the Holland and Germany but doesn't come here or is it a case of we'll do as we are told by zi Germans

She's in Dublin tomorrow. Your attempt at humour with the "zi" was a bit shiite.

Lefty Bicek · 12-12-2018 12:18am

Originally Posted by troyzer

Although the Brits have largely given up on this idea that the German carmakers will make sure Britain gets a favourable deal, they still think that Merkel dictates European policy.

They talked about it recently on the Irish Times podcast. Their unfounded belief that the EU is a German pawn was one of the main reasons they left and also one of the main reasons they thought a deal would be easy.

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

The people who say that the EU is a German pawn... what are their reasons for saying so ?

I ask again...

Raheem Euro · 12-12-2018 1:34am

Had anyone tried turning the UK off and on again?

prinzeugen · 12-12-2018 2:34am

troyzer wrote: »

Ah yes, I forgot to further qualify that statement.

Against an equivalent power. Which Argentina certainly wasn't.

Argentina could have "won" it. Made a balls of the country and the invasion however!

And went up against Maggie.

Always Tired · 12-12-2018 2:45am

Backstop...

Hammertime!

It's late, that's all I got.

pleas advice · 12-12-2018 3:29am

BACKSTOP! Yurgiddafurdarataara
REDTOPS!

Why Don't You, Trust, In, My,

pleas advice · 12-12-2018 6:14am

Steak-knife, card-shark
Con-job, back-stop

Skin that flick/She's such a little DJ
Get there quick/By street but not the freeway
Turn that trick/To make a little leeway
Beat that nic/But not the way that we play

Standing in line
To see the show tonight
And there's a light on
Heavy glow
By the way I tried to say
I'd be there, waiting for...

OldMrBrennan83 · 12-12-2018 6:19am

Why is it such a big thing that there's no proper border, and how are we able to dictate to the UK what they do with their own borders?

vicwatson · 12-12-2018 6:38am

My gut feeling is that Varadkar and co will bow to whatever the EU tell him to do.

Ordinary people don’t matter to this lot anymore, this is now about May doing whatever she has to to keep DUP happy to keep her in government, in power. And for what? I’d say she has well lost any respect in her own country yet is still so obsessed with remaining in power she has lost sight of what ordinary British people want. 10 DUPS holding the UK to ransom, who’d have thought it.

vicwatson · 12-12-2018 6:40am

Patww79 wrote: »

Why is it such a big thing that there's no proper border, and how are we able to dictate to the UK what they do with their own borders?

The GFA might have set out the reasons

troyzer · 12-12-2018 8:08am

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

I ask again...

Because Germany is the most powerful member of the EU which itself has always been a Paris-Berlin Axis with rowdy outsiders like London mostly complaining but sometimes shaping the union. Germany also weren't afraid to exert their influence during the euro crisis.

prinzeugen wrote: »

Argentina could have "won" it. Made a balls of the country and the invasion however!

And went up against Maggie.

I don't think they could have. They banked everything on the UK not having the political will to resist.

Patww79 wrote: »

Why is it such a big thing that there's no proper border, and how are we able to dictate to the UK what they do with their own borders?

Because the UK has obligations to the island of Ireland under the Good Friday Agreement. A treaty which has the weight of international law behind it. Although not explicit in the text, the understanding was that the European citizenship element and lack of borders meant that we could live in a world where realistically while we were all Europeans, there was little practical difference between being British or Irish.

The lack of border was critical to this.

realdanbreen · 12-12-2018 9:04am

namloc1980 wrote: »

She's in Dublin tomorrow. Your attempt at humour with the "zi" was a bit shiite.

Ve hav ways of making you laugh!:D

realdanbreen · 12-12-2018 9:19am

Raheem Euro wrote: »

Had anyone tried turning the UK off and on again?

Looks like they're doing that today!
When they turn it back on Boris Johnson will be leader--that should work!:D

FTA69 · 12-12-2018 9:37am

Patww79 wrote: »

Why is it such a big thing that there's no proper border, and how are we able to dictate to the UK what they do with their own borders?

Because they signed an internationally-binding treaty on the issue. The border is also a big deal as it would cause major disruption to the communities on either side of it and because the majority of the Irish people don’t want it.

12-12-2018 9:45am

Leave em to it Teresa and head off to the Caribbean for the winter. You’ve done all you could do to secure a decent deal.

OldMrBrennan83 · 12-12-2018 9:47am

FTA69 wrote: »

Because they signed an internationally-binding treaty on the issue. The border is also a big deal as it would cause major disruption to the communities on either side of it and because the majority of the Irish people don’t want it.

Yeah but why don't they just pull out, no deal, put in border points and raise the two fingers to everyone. What's the point to them leaving the EU in name only and letting us and the EU dictate what they do with their own borders, the gfa is hardly worth the paper it's written on once they leave surely?

realdanbreen · 12-12-2018 9:52am

FTA69 wrote: »

Because they signed an internationally-binding treaty on the issue.

When did the british ever keep their word?
Their whole kingdom was built on invading, exploiting and plundering other nations.

FTA69 · 12-12-2018 10:01am

Patww79 wrote: »

Yeah but why don't they just pull out, no deal, put in border points and raise the two fingers to everyone. What's the point to them leaving the EU in name only and letting us and the EU dictate what they do with their own borders, the gfa is hardly worth the paper it's written on once they leave surely?

Because they still need somewhat decent relations with their neighbours; international diplomacy isn’t just about telling people to f*ck off. You can do that if you’re Putin and constantly in a row anyway. You can’t do it when you’re an isolated country in Europe who has shat on your neighbours who can put the screws on economically if they want.

Doing what you say could provoke economic sanctions, UN condemnation and also reignite a conflict within UK borders they’d be obliged to participate in again. Doesn’t sound too appealing does it?

bnt · 12-12-2018 10:12am

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Leave em to it Teresa and head off to the Caribbean for the winter. You’ve done all you could do to secure a decent deal.

Considering that May is facing a vote of no confidence today, she could end up on holiday for longer than that. She was supposed to come to Dublin today to talk to the Taoiseach, but that's off until her position is resolved either way.

12-12-2018 10:21am

I’m so glad I’m not living in the UK anymore. The whole thing is a cluster****. Normal people want the whole thing to just go away at this stage. Neither conservatives nor Labour have shown any reason to be voted for if there were a GE.

sjb25 · 12-12-2018 10:32am

British govt in disarray MPs freaking out conservatives have imploded

Irish govt response

Mrsmum · 12-12-2018 10:44am

Heard a piece on the Radio this morning and the gist of it was embarrassment was almost the only reason now why the British people want to keep going on the mad track they are on. To have to turn around and say oops we were wrong is more humiliation than they could bear especially with them being the big empire in their minds. So that being the case it's a matter of finding some way of allowing them to save face. It's a bit like a marital relationship, when your welfare is tied up in theirs, the wisest course of action is often to allow the other side to keep a bit of dignity. If you destroy them, you destroy yourself also so for self interest alone is there any 'out' we can give them here, some small win which means nothing but spares their blushes ?????

Berserker · 12-12-2018 11:03am

FTA69 wrote: »

The border is also a big deal as it would cause major disruption to the communities on either side of it and because the majority of the Irish people don’t want it.

How does every other country around the world manage? The EU will put a border in place once Brexit happens. They are only playing nice on the matter at the moment because it makes life more difficult for the UK. The EU will not allow an open border between the UK and the EU long term.

Patww79 wrote: »

Yeah but why don't they just pull out, no deal, put in border points and raise the two fingers to everyone. What's the point to them leaving the EU in name only and letting us and the EU dictate what they do with their own borders, the gfa is hardly worth the paper it's written on once they leave surely?

If TM loses the vote this evening, I honestly don't know who'll be the next PM but if we end up with a pure Brexiter, for want of a better word, we could end up in that scenario. Tough times ahead for the UK, if that happens but it'll hit Ireland just as hard, if not harder.

sjb25 wrote: »

British govt in disarray MPs freaking out conservatives have imploded

Irish govt response

If it's a hard Brexit that grin will disappear pretty quickly.

Grayson · 12-12-2018 11:05am

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I’m so glad I’m not living in the UK anymore. The whole thing is a cluster****. Normal people want the whole thing to just go away at this stage. Neither conservatives nor Labour have shown any reason to be voted for if there were a GE.

I'm disgusted by labour. they should be providing a decent opposition bit they appear to be in it for short term gains. Rather than articulating a clear view of where they want to go, Corbyn is saying that even at this stage he could renegotiate a better deal. Their whole strategy seems to be to let the country burn to the ground so they can get elected and then be in charge of the charred heap.

FTA69 · 12-12-2018 11:14am

Berserker wrote: »

How does every other country around the world manage? The EU will put a border in place once Brexit happens. They are only playing nice on the matter at the moment because it makes life more difficult for the UK. The EU will not allow an open border between the UK and the EU long term.

Because few other countries in the world have a massive internal border that separates two people from the same nation in a contested territory. The border in Ireland divides communities, farms and even houses in some places; a continuation of the peace process and a militarisation of the border are pretty exclusive concepts.

Berserker · 12-12-2018 11:29am

Grayson wrote: »

I'm disgusted by labour. they should be providing a decent opposition bit they appear to be in it for short term gains. Rather than articulating a clear view of where they want to go, Corbyn is saying that even at this stage he could renegotiate a better deal. Their whole strategy seems to be to let the country burn to the ground so they can get elected and then be in charge of the charred heap.

Did you honestly believe that a Labour led Corbyn would be any better? He is no better than the hard left over here. He'd sh1t the bed if a general election happened and he had to take the reigns.

orourkeda1977 · 12-12-2018 11:45am

Hard Brexit

Soft brexit

soft backstop brexit

no deal brexit

backstop up the hole

The mere mention of brexit makes me want to kill myself.

BREXIT

BREXIT

BREXIT

C*nt f*cking boll*x to Brexit.

I'm f*cking sick of this sh1t

orourkeda1977 · 12-12-2018 11:47am

Grayson wrote: »

I'm disgusted by labour. they should be providing a decent opposition bit they appear to be in it for short term gains. Rather than articulating a clear view of where they want to go, Corbyn is saying that even at this stage he could renegotiate a better deal. Their whole strategy seems to be to let the country burn to the ground so they can get elected and then be in charge of the charred heap.

They couldnt beat a Teresa May led tory party in the last general election. This alone castrates them to a degree (metaphorically speaking of course)

orourkeda1977 · 12-12-2018 11:47am

Where's David Cameron these days?

troyzer · 12-12-2018 11:48am

orourkeda1977 wrote: »

Where's David Cameron these days?

He's on a few boards and does the lecture circuit.

Berserker · 12-12-2018 11:51am

orourkeda1977 wrote: »

Where's David Cameron these days?

Public speaking and he spends the rest of the time with his feet up thanking his lucky stars that he isn't PM at the moment.

orourkeda1977 · 12-12-2018 11:52am

troyzer wrote: »

He's on a few boards and does the lecture circuit.

There's a man who got out while the going was good.

Grayson · 12-12-2018 12:00pm

Berserker wrote: »

Did you honestly believe that a Labour led Corbyn would be any better? He is no better than the hard left over here. He'd sh1t the bed if a general election happened and he had to take the reigns.

Ive never believed that. I had hoped that they might but I never believed that they would.

Its an irony of brexit that the opposition is led by a guy who doesn't link the EU and the person in charge of leaving wanted to stay.

There are some of his policies that I like but he's too interested in getting into power. He's willing to let the country go to sh1t to do it too.

FTA69 · 12-12-2018 12:02pm

There’s also the fact that the EU would actively try and prevent a lot of Corbyn’s policies.

Lefty Bicek · 12-12-2018 12:54pm

troyzer wrote: »

Germany also weren't afraid to exert their influence during the euro crisis.

They don't have influence, they have dominance.

Circumspection about that is never 'unfounded'.

12-12-2018 12:55pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

That was a very close win.

Yes the UK converted container ships and car ferries into helicopter carriers in less than two month but you have to remember they had already sold one carrier to Oz and announced the scrapping of Hermes. Had Argentina waited a few months it would have been no contest. And they are repeating that mistake now. They sold off the last of the Harriers for a song, had they been mothballed the UK would still be able to cobble something together PDQ if needed. ( A fleet in being for the cost of air conditioning a warehouse ) Instead they'll have to wait years for operational carriers.

why would they need carriers? who is likely to be invading the Falklands in the foreseeable future?

12-12-2018 12:56pm

Saw these acronyms in the politics forum but don’t know what they mean.

ERG
WA

troyzer · 12-12-2018 12:56pm

Lefty Bicek wrote: »

They don't have influence, they have dominance.

Circumspection about that is never 'unfounded'.

Well, it is. Because Germany hasn't taken anything close to a leading role in the Brexit negotiations. It's been coming mainly from Brussels.

Grayson · 12-12-2018 1:18pm

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Saw these acronyms in the politics forum but don’t know what they mean.

ERG
WA

ERG: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Research_Group
WA: Withdrawal Agreement

Backstop

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