FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

sryanbruen · 13-01-2019 9:32pm

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1084451477693841408

Meteorite58 · 14-01-2019 12:26am

GFS 18Z gone a bit bananas tonight showing a Low at 925hPa at +234 hrs . It is a bit all over the place atm but it may be adjusting to the extreme cold forecast for parts of the US / Canada and expected heavy snow there. It shows a very strong Jet coming out of the US next week . Wouldn't expect any storm like that but will be interesting to see how it evolves.

https://twitter.com/WinterExpert/status/1084542928868044800

Villain · 14-01-2019 3:06pm

AO and NAO trend today is nice, this could help make FI charts a little more interesting for the end of the month

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1084807557309480960

Snowbiee21 · 14-01-2019 4:43pm

Villain wrote: »

AO and NAO trend today is nice, this could help make FI charts a little more interesting for the end of the month

https://twitter.com/Petagna/status/1084807557309480960

@yansnow

YanSno · 14-01-2019 6:14pm

Today Most ensemble members are on negative side by the end of January than 2 days ago. It's heading towards the right direction. Potential of a blocking but as always not definite

14/01/19 NAO

12/01/19 NAO

SleetAndSnow · 14-01-2019 8:07pm

From my still growing model knowledge, this is what I think the latest ECM shows but please correct me!

Ireland seems to be kept under cold uppers from tomorrow onwards really, which could end up being a shock to the system after the mild weather we have had. However as the model progresses we gradually get under colder uppers and it eventually shows a storm over Ireland around 216 hrs (below)

This storm looks pretty deep (but I am unsure as to if this would produce much snow for us, I am assuming it would be a moreso sleet/rain event with snow on higher ground?). The winds accompanying this storm could be strong as the isobars look pretty tight off the north coast eventually working their way down south meaning most of the country could feel this.(below)

It seems to be an all day storm with it moving south-eastwards across the country at 240hrs (below)

One thing this could do (hopefully) is draw colder air down from the north/northeast with it (but again just a guess im not certain!). I am assuming this will be a fairly cold storm should it come to be however. I don't think I remember the ECM modelling strong storms out in FI in my experience and having them disappear but again it is FI and could be gone next run (but I have a feeling it won't but it will be watered down quite a bit i am guessing!)

Please the more experienced people fix this post in any way necessary, just thought I would try and take a shot to see if I am starting to understand the models more after a year around here now

sdanseo · 14-01-2019 8:12pm

No chance of snow under that with just -4 uppers but if a 955mb storm that size crosses over Ireland and takes 24hrs to do so, snow (or lack thereof) will be the least of our worries!

sryanbruen · 14-01-2019 8:14pm

That ECM would likely bring some snow to usual higher ground though this would probably be limited with mostly rain or strong winds. It ends in a very amazing way that would be conducive to a blocked pattern with the Azores High retrogressing to the northwest and that low diving southeastwards to pull in a northeasterly flow. There's a deep cold pool waiting to be tapped into from that northeasterly at 240 hrs.

All just for fun though!

sdanseo · 14-01-2019 8:22pm

GFS-P still bringing widespread snow from around this time next week onwards. Still FI, but consistent now for 24hrs almost.

GFS Operational has a known bias towards snow when in fact rain is more likely especially at 96-144hrs sort of ranges. Next 3/4 days might be a good time to test to see if this is the case with the parallel as well.

180-574PUK.GIF?14-12

gabeeg · 14-01-2019 8:27pm

sdanseo wrote: »

GFS-P still bringing widespread snow from around this time next week onwards. Still FI, but consistent now for 24hrs almost.

GFS Operational has a known bias towards snow when in fact rain is more likely especially at 96-144hrs sort of ranges. Next 3/4 days might be a good time to test to see if this is the case with the parallel as well.

Any idea if the parallel is as bad with precipitation as the operational?

Mortelaro · 14-01-2019 8:51pm

This is day 10 ECM dragging in artic continental air
Day 10 so deep FI ,who knows though at this stage whether a version of this or the previous slides happen

gabeeg · 14-01-2019 9:24pm

Jebus

http://effis.jrc.ec.europa.eu/applications/monthly-forecast/

sryanbruen · 14-01-2019 9:27pm

gabeeg wrote: »

Jebus

ECM monthly remains consistent then on the fourth week of January being very cold, no backtracking.

Strong indications for the trough over Europe though a large spread to the south of Greenland continues on the ECM ensembles.

ninebeanrows · 14-01-2019 9:37pm

EC 12z mean anomalies at 216 and 240hr look good, The extended monthly forecast looks good too as above.

Game still firmly on. Patience needed.

sdanseo · 14-01-2019 10:06pm

Staring to feel like everything is slowly clicking into place. Multiple sources now pointing a very cold cross hairs at us.
If we can get down-welling and from there blocking established it could be March before a double digit temperature even crosses anyone's mind again - and more and more signals are cropping up daily in favour of this.

Is there any correlation between reaction/propagation time for SSW and the severity of the result?

CirrusBusiness · 15-01-2019 1:41am

https://amz.nwstatic.co.uk/monthly_2019_01/image.png.800c2675d6fb9c877649fe172d799e58.png

One to keep an eye on. Looks nasty if it verifies.

BLIZZARD7 · 15-01-2019 8:51am

GFS charts are rubbish this morning, UKMO is okay, ICON is good and the ECM is stunning, a cold run that would lead to a severe setup in the exteneded... Fitting in nicely with EC 46 for last week of Jan -

Re enforcement's about to arrive from the North East as the trough drops into Scandi/Griceland high builds -

Worth considering the EC 46 has been steadfast since day 1 now about a very cold last week of Jan- Let's see where we go from here

ardinn · 15-01-2019 8:57am

Can anyone explain in relatively idiotic terms the patterns that are happening and most likely predictions? Of course its all "wait and see" but how are we looking for an event similar to last year say?

BLIZZARD7 · 15-01-2019 9:04am

ardinn wrote: »

Can anyone explain in relatively idiotic terms the patterns that are happening and most likely predictions? Of course its all "wait and see" but how are we looking for an event similar to last year say?

No one can say for certain but an event like feb/march last year is highly unlikely in any case, that was exceptional. Look at MT's daily forecasts for an idea of whats going on in the near term. Everything beyond that (I.E this thread) is open to alot of change.

A severe cold spell with some snow is possible in the next few weeks but we have no agreement on such a scenario occuring for now. It is very much a case of wait and see' for the moment but there are encouraging signs. What is likely to happen is a gradual cool down with some rain/sleet/snow events that could go either way, beyond that something more notably cold may come for months end If the ECM is to be believed.

BLIZZARD7 · 15-01-2019 9:10am

OP run ^ has support amongst the ensembles -

EDH1-216.GIF?15-12

Strong support for an all important Genoa low at day 10 - a very good set of ensembles from the ECM

EDH1-240.GIF?15-12

Marengo · 15-01-2019 5:51pm

Can't post charts yet but the 12Z GFS is looking a lot colder and more blocked next week

Hints of polar lows etc.

sryanbruen · 15-01-2019 6:00pm

GFS 12z is a more blocked run but it never really gets going in the right places until the very end of the run. It teases a Scandi High next week though meanders somewhat into Central Europe allowing the flow to come more from a southeasterly. Greenland High struggles to get going though the end of the run shows a proper high over Iceland with the winds coming in from the northeast. Better than previous runs but still not there to properly delivering cold in the more reliable timeframe (though anything from the weekend onwards is unreliable really) - looks milder and dry. No westerly flow though.

Let’s see what the ECM has to say this evening.

SleetAndSnow · 15-01-2019 7:48pm

ECM bringing what looks like another ''Beast'' to the UK at +192hrs! Will it have enough energy to push its way over to here? Lets hope.

Marengo · 15-01-2019 7:48pm

ECM just out to 192H and a chilly easterly after low pressure sinks south.

pad199207 · 15-01-2019 7:50pm

Oh now....

SleetAndSnow · 15-01-2019 7:51pm

Beautiful

Would this be conclusive to the Irish Sea firing up? Or would the Southern Counties (cork, waterford, wexford) be better since the southern counties in the UK look to fare best from that? Im not great at figuring out precip yet so very interested in learning that part!

Marengo · 15-01-2019 7:51pm

216H on ECM pulling in more cold from the east. If that high to the south of Iceland went a little north

SleetAndSnow · 15-01-2019 7:56pm

-9 uppers in Cork, Waterford and Wexford by 240hrs

, messy looking though and bound to change. :

Marengo · 15-01-2019 7:58pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Beautiful

Would this be conclusive to the Irish Sea firing up? Or would the Southern Counties (cork, waterford, wexford) be better since the southern counties in the UK look to fare best from that? Im not great at figuring out precip yet so very interested in learning that part!

Air pressure borderline at 1020hpa, Dublin area at 216H. A little drop of 5hpa could make all the difference. Though snow streams have formed at 1020hpa.

Franz Von Peppercorn · 15-01-2019 7:58pm

^ looks like -8

Marengo · 15-01-2019 8:00pm

High pressure regressing west day 10 ECM?? Imagine that's a good sign for Atlantic blocking?

SleetAndSnow · 15-01-2019 8:00pm

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

^ looks like -8

thought that too but if you trace it there is a bubble of -8 in it which is a different colour, unsure though. its pretty messy.

Cut to the mean showing the OP is an outlier

gabeeg · 15-01-2019 8:04pm

That is very close to perfect

Meteorite58 · 15-01-2019 9:23pm

Can't resist putting up these charts of snow potential for Tues to Fri next week ( I would imagine these are showing lying snow with the cold being shown) .

That area of LP showing up again early next week,nowhere as deep as earlier runs but full of moisture and potential for windy weather.

Change in the direction of the airmas later next week to more NE'ly / Ely as the Low sinks S according to tonight's run from the ECM .

We are all well aware of the turmoil in the charts recently , a lot of variables have to line up to produce snow like that but putting these here to see if the following runs follow in this trend.

SleetAndSnow · 15-01-2019 11:27pm

gfs 18z is looking better then 12z to say the least, more in line with ECM. But then again isn't that always the way? Come 0z GFS will have changed tune again most likely. (ECM too maybe though hopefully not)

YanSno · 15-01-2019 11:58pm

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

gfs 18z is looking better then 12z to say the least, more in line with ECM. But then again isn't that always the way? Come 0z GFS will have changed tune again most likely. (ECM too maybe though hopefully not)

18z gfs is actually very bland too many unresolved resolutions. No sign of a blocking either

SleetAndSnow · 16-01-2019 12:03am

YanSno wrote: »

18z gfs is actually very bland too many unresolved resolutions. No sign of a blocking either

Yep was looking nice from around 136hrs but changed during the course of the run to a bland run in comparison.

BLIZZARD7 · 16-01-2019 4:38am

YanSno wrote: »

18z gfs is actually very bland too many unresolved resolutions. No sign of a blocking either

There is definitely more than a sign of blocking creeping into the extended ensembles though -

Hopefully we don't end up with a west based -NAO but I don't think we will, ECM leading the way here- the others are playing catch up.

If we are going to see a proper cold spell set up for the last week of Jan or so then watch for upgrades in the next 24-72hrs - I don't think the models have got a good grasp of the situation yet.

BLIZZARD7 · 16-01-2019 6:38am

GFS/GEFS 00z not good if you're looking for winter, UKMO is okayish, GFSp is a halfway house, Hopefully ECM sticks to its guns...

YanSno · 16-01-2019 7:58am

Ecmwf 0z is back tracking towards Gfs this morning. As i have been saying we will have more of a zonal influence. cold and mild weather in the same week, no sustain cold

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2019 8:10am

There will be knives out over on NetWeather after this morning's EC

Just one run , will be interesting to see if any trend on the ENS.

I wouldnt take too much notice of it for now though.

KingdomRushed · 16-01-2019 8:14am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

There will be knives out over on NetWeather after this morning's EC

Just one run , will be interesting to see if any trend on the ENS.

I wouldnt take too much notice of it for now though.

There isn’t any model showing anything snowy however. Guess we can’t take much notice of any models. Go on instinct? It’s the worst winter I can recall for absolutely nothing happening from a cold perspective. Dire.

ninebeanrows · 16-01-2019 8:26am

KingdomRushed wrote: »

There isn’t any model showing anything snowy however. Guess we can’t take much notice of any models. Go on instinct? It’s the worst winter I can recall for absolutely nothing happening from a cold perspective. Dire.

The EC monthly and ENS have distinct trend towards a significant cold period. As regards snow- too early to guess. I’m focusing from around 25th Jan onwards for notable cold to dig in. That signal has held solid for weeks now- not gonna throw it in due to a EC deterministic wobble.

esposito · 16-01-2019 8:29am

YanSno wrote: »

Ecmwf 0z is back tracking towards Gfs this morning. As i have been saying we will have more of a zonal influence. cold and mild weather in the same week, no sustain cold

And most of us fools were dismissing the GFS!

No sustained cold for the next few weeks. After that, who knows. I still think we will get a significant cold spell before Winter is out. Although that is my hunch more than anything.

Rebelbrowser · 16-01-2019 8:43am

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

The EC monthly and ENS have distinct trend towards a significant cold period. As regards snow- too early to guess. I’m focusing from around 25th Jan onwards for notable cold to dig in. That signal has held solid for weeks now- not gonna throw it in due to a EC deterministic wobble.

1 Feb is my date. Hilariously that would tie in with what the CFS was showing weeks ago!

Neddyusa · 16-01-2019 9:14am

Ioiiiooooiiiiio bl

pad199207 · 16-01-2019 9:18am

Heck! The fence is a lot sturdier this morning.

sryanbruen · 16-01-2019 9:27am

Very messy ECM means. There’s a defined Genoa Low and or Euro trough but lot of spread to the north with low heights. Looks high pressure dominated for us.

nacho libre · 16-01-2019 4:13pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Very messy ECM means. There’s a defined Genoa Low and or Euro trough but lot of spread to the north with low heights. Looks high pressure dominated for us.

The canadian sector is too strong, it all leads back to the wave 2 warming being nothing like what transpired last February. You don't need reversal all the way down to get a meandering mid atlantic ridge, but if you want a high to build to the north west it seems you do. Ironically with the upper strat now in recovery mode, it may help to enhance downwelling in key areas and it may lead to favourable blocking in February- which would chime with your winter forecast.

Gaoth Laidir · 16-01-2019 5:02pm

nacho libre wrote: »

The canadian sector is too strong, it all leads back to the wave 2 warming being nothing like what transpired last February. You don't need reversal all the way down to get a meandering mid atlantic ridge, but if you want a high to build to the north west it seems you do. Ironically with the upper strat now in recovery mode, it may help to enhance downwelling in key areas and it may lead to favourable blocking in February- which would chime with your winter forecast.

I think too much time has passed for that to happen now. Radiative cooling and eddy mixing will cool down the last remaining warm strat layers and allow the upper recovery to fire up the westerlies again at these levels. For me it was always looking like one that won't deliver. Once we had that long delay early on it was shot. There were never any indications of anything else. There looks like there will be one final meridional pulse developing eastwards from around 170W over the next week, eventually enhancing the Atlantic ridge, but after that - beyond the model range - I think a zonal pattern will redevelop.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 / 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST