FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

The building of the Azores high next week is once again beginning to look very much in doubt. It is on an absolute knifeedge with the low pressure brushing up against us just too close for comfort.

The ECM has us warm on Sunday for a time on Monday before cooler air takes over.





looks good for England but for us this is just too close for comfort.

The GFS is even more unsettled with the low rolling in right over us bringing cool and wet weather.



The low continues to rotate around us for days afterwards as well leading to an unsettled week next week.

UKMO brushes the low very close to us as well so staying relatively cool and possibly unsettled with it too.



GEM is similar with Ireland and Scotland on the cool and unsettled side.



With the models changing every day I think we need another 2 or 3 days of model watching before we are sure where the low will go and how much of an affect will it have on our temperatures and the possibility of rain.

How is the rest of June shaping up? It's beginning to look a bit clearer as June into early July will be fairly mixed. The low pressure currently sitting off our west coast looks like it's going to go nowhere fast over the next 1 to 2 weeks. It stays just off our western coast over the 5 to 6 days and then begins to move in again over us possibly next weekend and hangs around into the following week.

This low will spend a considerable amount of time moving between Iceland and Ireland with unsettled conditions never too far away. The azores high will spend much of it's time just south and east of Ireland as the low is preventing it from having any proper affect on our weather.

This almost looks like a rerun of July 2019 with the UK and most of Europe with very warm and possibly hot heatwave style conditions from that Azores while Ireland remains under the clutches of the Atlantic, however there will be a few days here and there where the Azores tries to extend in over the whole country but it doesn't look it will successfully do so at any stage this June.

Ireland finds its self in no man's land for much of the time with eastern and southern parts dryer and slightly warmer and if sunny spells develop there could be some warm days with temperatures getting into the low twenties or even mid twenties at times. South-eastern areas most at risk from sunshine and higher temperatures.

The west and north are closer to the areas of low pressure and may see bands of rain stall over the western coastal counties at times or showers. Even here there should be a few dry days most notably next Wednesday to Friday.

To those looking for a prolonged dry and warm spell, you won't find it in this outlook, we may have to wait till July before we see sign's of this developing.

Latest GFS run finds ourselves in a drying and warming trend for this week. Rain or showers is possible on Monday but it does turn dryer from Tuesday and upper temperatures at least start lifting up followed by a potential cool spell next weekend.



Wednesday continues with an area of low pressure south of Iceland that extends down past our western seaboard. The Azores is very close to us but not close enough. Some fairly warm uppers are over the country and we see signs that the country will dry out for a few days.





Despite the warm uppers temperatures look fairly average high teens to low twenties, but there should be nice spells of sunshine.

By next Friday it will remain dry across the country, mostly warm and sunny with low to mid twenties possible, particulary in south-eastern areas.





Next Sunday see's cooler and more unsettled conditions once again take over the country from the west. This is basically the same area of low pressure that's over us currently.





Temperatures low to mid teens at best, not helped by the band of rain from west to east.

by Friday the 3rd of July this low pressure is still in our vacinity affecting the northern half of the country with bands of rain or showers.



We finish on July 7th with a fairly typical zonal pattern for the summer, the Azores stays just to our south and we are in a flat westerly pattern with rain or showers at times mixed with the odd dryer and warmer day.



Hopefully over the next week to 10 days we start to see serious signs of this Azores high extending it's influence over Ireland from July, after an unsettled June we are banking on July to quieten down and offer us a spell of summer.

tonight's GFS is really going to town with cool, windy and very unsettled weather next weekend and possibly beyond. GFS also has this breaking through the UK into other parts of north-western Europe suggesting that the jetstream may be about to get it's act together and the Atlantic powering up.

Next Sunday looks very cool and windy with gales throughout the country and plenty of rain.







Gusts up to 90km/h could be possible off the north-western coast and gusts inland between 50 and 70km/h.



Large rainfall totals by this time next week, much of this raining falling over next weekend.



Hopefully this gets downgraded somewhat, if this verifies it would be a very unpleasant and unseasonable spell of weather towards the end of June.

It still remains to be seen how prolonged and how unsettled this pattern becomes. At the moment the last week of June and 1st week of July look increasingly unsettled not just across Ireland but also the UK, Scandinavia, the low countries, northern France and northern Germany. Definite signs that the Atlantic may dominate for a few weeks, that Azores high is going to have a tougher battle on it's hands.

Most of the long term models are still going for a reasonably settled July, but the Beijing Climate Centre has changed their forecast to an unsettled July with westerlies dominating. It does however bring a more settled August.

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

After the dry and settled spring I suppose it was always likely that there would be payback with an unsettled summer. It wouldn`t greatly surprise me if the weather stays cool with rain and showers all the way through to September.

July could take some time to settle down but most long term models are hinting at a settled August and very settled Autumn. Certainly the short term models are becoming increasingly unsettled over the next few weeks. Once we get next weekend out of the way perhaps by then signs of it settling down again might appear in the short range models. The Azores will likely have several more attempts at trying to influence our weather but at the moment the Atlantic does appear to be regaining it's momentum with a clear zonal pattern in development for northern Europe.

What I would like to see during July is the Scaninavian High rebuilding and the Azores high ridging over us and linking up with the high over the Nordic countries, sending the jetstream well to our north with lows not able to get anwhere near Ireland, a bit like June 2018.

an update to how the next two weeks will progress. Those looking for things to settle down and warm up over the next 2 weeks will be disappointed. The next 10 to 14 days are looking rather cool with temperatures generally between 1 to 3 degrees below average. The Azores will remain just to out south most of the time but spoiler lows should ensure that the Azores never really makes it here, instead delivering a possibly very warm or hot few weeks to France and central parts of Europe. We have also lost the Scandinavian high so the Atlantic looks set to dominate much of northern Europe over the next 2 weeks with lows rattling through from the west with relative ease. Rainfall looks average and temperatures generally in the 12 to 17C range with high teens possible on days where the ridge tries to influence our weather briefly.



Signs of things settling down and warming continues to get push back, now we are looking at possibly the second half of July or the beginning of August for any serious improvement in our weather. There is every possibility that the current rather cool and unsettled pattern may continue through the month of July and into August in what is starting to look like a fairly cool and mixed summer.

some positive signs of a warming trend after this week.

looks generally cool and unsettled this week but an improving scene from next weekend. GFS wants to build high pressure over next week, however it does not look like a long term return to settled conditions, may get 2 or 3 decent days which I would gladly take at this stage, before things may turn unsettled again.

The GFS has already played about with high pressures a few times over the past week and backed off quickly, so it remains to be seen if this will actually happen.



High pressure gets going next Sunday but temperatures still a bit on the cool side.



Temperatures 16 to 22C, not great by any means but certainly better than what we've had over the past few weeks.



High pressure lasts till about Tuesday evening or Wednesday before things turn unsettled again.



We finish back at square one with a flat westerly and a series of low pressures lining up for our direction.



ECM also very similar to the GFS, settles things down next Saturday/Sunday and this lasts till about Wednesday.





UKMO shows the high arriving next Saturday (as far as the model goes), however it does look very short lived on this chart with that spoiler low just waiting to topple over the ridge.

GEM again similar to the other models, has high pressure building next weekend and it lasts as far as Wednesday and could extend by an extra day or two.



This is still a week away so a lot of chopping and changing may happen over the next few days. This does not like a pattern change or a return to a prolonged dry and warm spell by any means. We will do well to get 3 to 4 settled days from this but at this stage I will take anything that's going as a break from this unsettled mess of a summer we've had so far.