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Dublin - Significant reduction in rents coming?

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    #3182
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Jmc25 wrote: »
    Nationally I'd say rents are only going up for the foreseeable but in Dublin there appears to be a significant number of newly built apartments currently lying empty due to asking rents being more than people are willing to pay.

    That will end soon one way or another - either the institutional landlords will get the rents they're looking for due to a rush back into Dublin in Autumn, or they'll drop their prices, and Dublin rents may fall, although probably not hugely.

    On this point, it is worth noting they couldn't get them leased before the pandemic so I personally don't see them getting anything near what they're asking post-pandemic. I used to think there was a misperception that Dublin is or is potentially going to become like London where "executives" from banking insurance, tech or HNWI need these high end apartments for when they come to Dublin but on the ground I just don't know what sort of luxury lifestyle Dublin offers, at the level of London, Munich, Paris etc. I mean, look at the lack of 5 star hotels in Dublin, no high end shopping streets dripping in Gucci, Chanel etc, ultra exclusive bars or nightclubs don't exist in Dublin and those that tried over the years to be something ultra exclusive always flopped.

    However, it seems to me that these high end apartments are not actually intended for mythical luxury lifestyle seeking individuals but instead are just about holding the asset and claiming that it is worth a certain amount rather than actually receiving the rent for these high end apartments like Capital Dock, Landings etc.


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    #3183
    Phat Cat
    Registered Users Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Phat Cat


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    The greater DL area has a huge amount of stock to hit the market in the next 12/18 months. With the rents being asked for I just don't see the private market taking it up. Looking for 2.2k for a 2 bed when you can get something good in D4 for that price won't fly. Are these large developments taking HAP payments or do the blocks out there have high vacancy rates like the ones in town?

    Yeah the renting situation seems to be falsely inflated around there for some reason. Anything decent seems to be way over priced, the 1 bedroom D1 rated apartment for 2k is a perfect example of this, that's London prices for a small apartment 10km away from the city centre, which is ridiculous.

    I'd say the newer complexes like Honeypark and Cualanor have to be taking HAP as there are a huge number of apartments in both complexes yet if you drive or walk though you can still see loads of empty apartments in both. The trouble is that they have been advertised for the same price as they were 2/3 years ago and I heard that some letting agents were looking for 2 or 3 months rent as a deposit, but that practice seems to be coming to an end.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/tenants-cannot-be-forced-to-pay-deposits-of-more-than-two-months-rent-1.4589012?mode=amp


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    #3184
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Phat Cat wrote: »
    Yeah the renting situation seems to be falsely inflated around there for some reason. Anything decent seems to be way over priced, the 1 bedroom D1 rated apartment for 2k is a perfect example of this, that's London prices for a small apartment 10km away from the city centre, which is ridiculous.

    I'd say the newer complexes like Honeypark and Cualanor have to be taking HAP as there are a huge number of apartments in both complexes yet if you drive or walk though you can still see loads of empty apartments in both. The trouble is that they have been advertised for the same price as they were 2/3 years ago and I heard that some letting agents were looking for 2 or 3 months rent as a deposit, but that practice seems to be coming to an end.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/tenants-cannot-be-forced-to-pay-deposits-of-more-than-two-months-rent-1.4589012?mode=amp

    Those two complexes alone are bizarre. I would bet my last cent that there is some sort of HAP in a big way there. I passed a few weeks back and one of them (can't remember which as I am rarely out that way) had at least 3 cranes on site. There have been people living in them for years and it looks like possibly more than a hundred apts to come on stream. This alone is a good advertisement for a vacancy tax.


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    #3185
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Those two complexes alone are bizarre. I would bet my last cent that there is some sort of HAP in a big way there. I passed a few weeks back and one of them (can't remember which as I am rarely out that way) had at least 3 cranes on site. There have been people living in them for years and it looks like possibly more than a hundred apts to come on stream. This alone is a good advertisement for a vacancy tax.

    Definitely HAP in Cualanor as I know someone living there.


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    #3186
    1percent
    Registered Users Posts: 106 ✭✭1percent


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Those two complexes alone are bizarre. I would bet my last cent that there is some sort of HAP in a big way there. I passed a few weeks back and one of them (can't remember which as I am rarely out that way) had at least 3 cranes on site. There have been people living in them for years and it looks like possibly more than a hundred apts to come on stream. This alone is a good advertisement for a vacancy tax.

    That would be culanor, they are building another complex, already fully bought by a German fund
    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/cosgrave-group-in-210m-deal-to-sell-368-d%C3%BAn-laoghaire-properties-1.4184473?mode=amp


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    #3187
    Phat Cat
    Registered Users Posts: 618 ✭✭✭Phat Cat


    Amadan Dubh wrote: »
    Definitely HAP in Cualanor as I know someone living there.

    Yeah I'd say those two housing complexes are totally rife with HAP tenants, which is odd because they can't seem to rent them all to tax payers. Then again, imagine paying €1800+ plus for a 1 bed, then coming up with 2/3 months rent as a deposit, when your neighbors are paying a fraction of that via HAP. It just highlights even further how distorted and unfair the whole renting situation is right now.


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    #3188
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Phat Cat wrote: »
    Yeah I'd say those two housing complexes are totally rife with HAP tenants, which is odd because they can't seem to rent them all to tax payers. Then again, imagine paying €1800+ plus for a 1 bed, then coming up with 2/3 months rent as a deposit, when your neighbors are paying a fraction of that via HAP. It just highlights even further how distorted and unfair the whole renting situation is right now.

    ...and likely to get worse on that front. These German funds still probably cannot believe the riches they enjoy.


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    #3189
    Qgirl
    Registered Users Posts: 28 ✭Qgirl


    KilOit wrote: »
    His property to do what he likes with it, even using it as a Airbnb he is benefiting tourism.
    your beef should be with the government not building enough properties or selling 95% of new apartments to vulture funds


    Many airbnb full of bed bugs or unhygienic otherwise because people who rent out no experience/education how to run Hospitality business.


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    #3190
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    ...and likely to get worse on that front. These German funds still probably cannot believe the riches they enjoy.

    Germany has experienced a big housing market boom in recent years. My fiancé's family and friends there have explained how easy it is to get a mortgage or a loan but that house prices are so expensive it is hard to buy anything. There is construction in abundance in the smaller towns as well as the larger cities. Meanwhile, GDP had started to decline 2018 and 2019 and the economy looked to be heading for recsssion in 2019. I don't know if Germany ever had a credit fuelled housing boom and bust before, but it reminds me of Ireland the way the growth and uncertainty in Germany is talked about among these friends and family members. If inflation continues to climb in Germany, which terrifies them, and interest rate rises are in the cards for the ECB in order to temper inflation, there could be a perfect storm for a property crash and German fund pull back from the Irish market in order for these pension funds to meet their obligations.


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    #3191
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    So it appears UCD will increase the price of its cheapest on campus accommodation by over 10% for students returning in September. Could this end up pushing more students to look for off campus places?
    Students hoping to live on campus at UCD for the next academic year will have to pay up to €14,000 for their accommodation, it has been announced.

    The college has released details of its on-site accommodation for the 2021/22 academic year, with options ranging from €8,059 to €14,465 for returning students looking to rent for the standard two semesters. Broken down, the students would pay €203 per week at the campus’s two cheapest halls.

    A comparison with 2019/20 prices, shows the most affordable Belgrove and Merville accommodation sites were just over €7,100 for the September to May rental period.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/on-campus-student-accommodation-at-ucd-to-cost-up-to-14k-for-next-academic-year-1.4591153


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    #3192
    agoodpunt
    Registered Users Posts: 544 ✭✭✭agoodpunt


    Qgirl wrote: »
    Many airbnb full of bed bugs or unhygienic otherwise because people who rent out no experience/education how to run Hospitality business.


    might need a link to back that up
    Same could be said for some hotels and BnBs who have higher occupancy rates


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    #3193
    Jmc25
    Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭Jmc25


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    Many landlords will sell as the moratorium on terminations expires. They are aghast at what has happened when protections were put in place for tenants and nothing done for them.

    Putting my buyer's hat on for a second I'll look forward to all that supply hitting the market!


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    #3194
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Jmc25 wrote: »
    Putting my buyer's hat on for a second I'll look forward to all that supply hitting the market!

    Landlords are a relatively small percentage of the overall market so don't anticipate a deluge. The effects will be felt by tenants more so than buyers, however it appears that buyers are now looking to rentals as fixer-uppers and are driving up prices for properties which previously would only have been considered by investors.


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    #3195
    Dav010
    Registered Users Posts: 14,004 ✭✭✭✭Dav010


    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/college-campus-reopening-plan-5466548-Jun2021/%3famp=1

    Let’s see what happens to rents in the next few weeks.


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    #3196
    Ozark707
    Registered Users Posts: 941 ✭✭✭Ozark707


    Dav010 wrote: »
    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/college-campus-reopening-plan-5466548-Jun2021/%3famp=1

    Let’s see what happens to rents in the next few weeks.

    Supply on daft has been steadily decreasing over past couple of months. As some have predicted this is probably due to people starting to come back to Dublin in advance of offices opening back up. Question is whether any new (of the large scale) student residences have opened up in the past year or so which might provide some much needed supply for this market.


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    #3197
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users Posts: 5,368 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Dav010 wrote: »
    https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.thejournal.ie/college-campus-reopening-plan-5466548-Jun2021/%3famp=1

    Let’s see what happens to rents in the next few weeks.


    I dont think they will have students fully vaccinated by the time the new term starts so their might be a stay on property there, but once they are back in full its going to be carnage.

    I do feel sorry for people in uni though these days.
    It just is not right to spend your uni years in your parents attic :)
    They need to be able to get out and get the uni experience in full. They are missing a big part of their lives.


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    #3198
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Ozark707 wrote: »
    Supply on daft has been steadily decreasing over past couple of months. As some have predicted this is probably due to people starting to come back to Dublin in advance of offices opening back up. Question is whether any new (of the large scale) student residences have opened up in the past year or so which might provide some much needed supply for this market.

    some student residences have been operating with reduced capacity. The intake of students this year will be at an all time high. there may also be people repeating years due to the interruption of the pandemic.
    There is also this
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40314716.html?type=amp

    Most of the landlords are going to sell and given the lack of new building, the properties will be snapped up quickly by non-investors.

    Unless the Indian variant makes big inroads, September is going to be an interesting time.


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    #3199
    usernamegoes
    Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭usernamegoes


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    How does it identify anyone?

    It doesn't have to identify someone per se. It has to relate to an identified or identifiable person. Under certain contexts this it would be trivial to identify the renter. See p9 https://www.pdp.ie/docs/1030.pdf


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    #3200
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    usernamegoes wrote: »
    It doesn't have to identify someone per se. It has to relate to an identified or identifiable person. Under certain contexts this it would be trivial to identify the renter. See p9 https://www.pdp.ie/docs/1030.pdf

    How would knowing the previous rent help to identify the renter? Even if it did it is mandated by law and proportional. On the basis of your link, the landlord has a greater complaint since the amount of rent is also his personal data on which he has to pay tax.


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    #3201
    usernamegoes
    Registered Users Posts: 901 ✭✭✭usernamegoes


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    How would knowing the previous rent help to identify the renter? Even if it did it is mandated by law and proportional. On the basis of your link, the landlord has a greater complaint since the amount of rent is also his personal data on which he has to pay tax.

    Knowing the rent doesn't help you identify the renter, but it tells you information about the renter and, as you pointed out, the landlord.

    I was simply responding to your claim that it wasn't personal data when it is.


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    #3202
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    some student residences have been operating with reduced capacity. The intake of students this year will be at an all time high. there may also be people repeating years due to the interruption of the pandemic.
    There is also this
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40314716.html?type=amp

    Most of the landlords are going to sell and given the lack of new building, the properties will be snapped up quickly by non-investors.

    Unless the Indian variant makes big inroads, September is going to be an interesting time.

    I'm half following covid news these days as things basically feel back to normal but I see "Delta variant" headlines constantly popping up on the home pages of news websites and Morning Ireland just said that indoor dining reopening on 5th July is definitely not certain yet. But then the July 19th travel pass means it is probably irrelevant if there is "concern" or whatever as people can go around Europe with a negative PCR test or evidence of previous infection in a few weeks.

    Nonetheless, unless our health authorities change their tact about this Delta variant and their fears for the unvaccinated and the not yet fully vaccinated, I don't think we will be receiving the all clear in the next 6 weeks that students (who will be unvaccinated) can go back fully on campus in September. I'm even wondering if Varadker jumped the gun by saying offices will go back in September as that would involve making public transport run at 100% capacity and removing any social distancing requirements in society.

    I disagree with this sudden doubt about the speed of reopening and think it's a joke but it just seems to be the way the narrative is running at the moment. When would students typically go looking for accommodation? I don't think they'll have much of a problem even if they got the all clear to go back in September. Hotels will be offering rooms for 4 nights B&B for students which means, to me, even if students go back there won't be much of a shortage of accommodation, particularly if the non-EU students aren't coming over for September


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    #3203
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Amadan Dubh wrote: »
    I'm half following covid news these days as things basically feel back to normal but I see "Delta variant" headlines constantly popping up on the home pages of news websites and Morning Ireland just said that indoor dining reopening on 5th July is definitely not certain yet. But then the July 19th travel pass means it is probably irrelevant if there is "concern" or whatever as people can go around Europe with a negative PCR test or evidence of previous infection in a few weeks.

    Nonetheless, unless our health authorities change their tact about this Delta variant and their fears for the unvaccinated and the not yet fully vaccinated, I don't think we will be receiving the all clear in the next 6 weeks that students (who will be unvaccinated) can go back fully on campus in September. I'm even wondering if Varadker jumped the gun by saying offices will go back in September as that would involve making public transport run at 100% capacity and removing any social distancing requirements in society.

    I disagree with this sudden doubt about the speed of reopening and think it's a joke but it just seems to be the way the narrative is running at the moment. When would students typically go looking for accommodation? I don't think they'll have much of a problem even if they got the all clear to go back in September. Hotels will be offering rooms for 4 nights B&B for students which means, to me, even if students go back there won't be much of a shortage of accommodation, particularly if the non-EU students aren't coming over for September

    Unless there is a major outbreak, colleges will re-open. Hotel places may be available if business travel remains curtailed but will not suit many students. Some students entering their final year have only had a few months on campus so far. That will have to change.


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    #3204
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 3,801 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    The answer to the question posed in the title seems to be "no"


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    #3205
    Amadan Dubh
    Registered Users Posts: 1,604 ✭✭✭Amadan Dubh


    fvp4 wrote: »
    The answer to the question posed in the title seems to be "no"

    The covid impact has not yet been allowed to impact the market and we won't know what, if any, impact it will have until covid eviction bans and payment supports are removed. So it is probable we won't even get an idea of the covid impact to the market for another 6 months at least.
    Claw Hammer wrote: »
    Unless there is a major outbreak, colleges will re-open. Hotel places may be available if business travel remains curtailed but will not suit many students. Some students entering their final year have only had a few months on campus so far. That will have to change.

    I certainly hope the government sees sense and issues the all clear sooner rather than later to let the negligibly impacted demographic get back on campus. It's a disgrace that there might even be a doubt about it at this stage, but nothing is surprising at the government's shambolic handling of the pandemic to this point.


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    #3206
    Jmc25
    Registered Users Posts: 298 ✭✭Jmc25


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The answer to the question posed in the title seems to be "no"

    Some modest drops around the city center and not much else. Funds have been happy to keep apartments vacant rather than reduce rents thus far, so in my opinion it will come down to whether there is enough demand to fill those apartments at the asking rents by the end of the year.

    Many people on here think there'll be a surge in demand by the end of the year. Personally I'm not so sure but ultimately nobody actually knows.


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    #3207
    selassie
    Registered Users Posts: 201 ✭✭selassie


    "The committee was also told that average rents in Dublin, often more than €2,000 a month, require a €70,000 net income to be affordable."
    source: https://extra.ie/2021/06/20/featured/housing-crisis-2025-darragh-o-brien

    You know it's bad when TD's aren't being paid enough to rent the average Dublin house. 70k net is just below 120k a year gross.


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    #3208
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    selassie wrote: »
    "The committee was also told that average rents in Dublin, often more than €2,000 a month, require a €70,000 net income to be affordable."
    source: https://extra.ie/2021/06/20/featured/housing-crisis-2025-darragh-o-brien

    You know it's bad when TD's aren't being paid enough to rent the average Dublin house. 70k net is just below 120k a year gross.

    And not even a whiff of a vacant spaces or land hoarding tax.

    That's the first thing that needs to come in. Use it, or pay a tax on it or sell it.


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    #3209
    Claw Hammer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,160 ✭✭✭Claw Hammer


    Jmc25 wrote: »

    Many people on here think there'll be a surge in demand by the end of the year. Personally I'm not so sure but ultimately nobody actually knows.

    The colleges coming back on campus will cause a massive surge in demand. There will be 10s of 1000s of students looking for accommodation by mid-September.


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    #3210
    dkav9
    Registered Users Posts: 46 ✭dkav9


    Has anyone rented in Clancy Quay, Kilmainham recently? We are looking at apts in Dublin and these seam reasonably priced for the finish and location, they are also pet friendly which is a bonus.

    However looking at previous threads on here I see people complain about mould and ventilation being a problem. These threads are a few years old and I believe the apartments available now are a new phase so could have been improved in this regard... Does anyone have any info?


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    #3211
    Baby01032012
    Registered Users Posts: 1,622 ✭✭✭Baby01032012


    I have a 2 bed apartment pff Cork St., Dublin 8. Had been let at 1800. Its a small 2 bed and too small for the 2 girls working from home. So they moved out, I found that i had 20 enquires v 200 enquiries 2 years ago. It ruled out professionals working from home. Plus there is much more property on the market. So I let it for 1600 in the end. COVID definitiely had an impact. Workers and students returning after the summer will normalise the market, however i couldnt wait.


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