ALL - WEATHER BETS

7.00 Wolverhampton -

CALIFORNIA LAD has won 3 times on the AW (all at Dundalk) , the most recent of which was in February last year off today’s mark of 63 .
Has ran 3 times at Wolves , twice for previous trainer Harry Dunlop finishing 3rd and 2nd off 78 and 76 .
Current trainer took him over in May of this year and he was a running on 3rd off a mark of 66 .
3 poor runs in Ireland since , hopefully a return to this track , 3lb drop , step up in trip plus the jockeys 3lb claim can all help towards an improved showing at a big price .

Wrapping up the last few for today so there’ll be no crying later (unless Keane wins on GLB...!)



Dec 20


2.45 Southwell -
AZZECCAGARBUGLI 0.5pt win @ 10/1 generally

3.50 Southwell -
GANG WARFARE 0.5pt win @ 50/1 PP , BetVictor

5.00 Wolverhampton -
ROCKESBURY 11/1 bet365 , 10/1 generally


Good luck

Staked : 133.5pts
Returned : 109.5pts


Work to do to get things back on track . Nothing of interest at Lingfield tomorrow so a few days break maybe coming at a good time for the thread . Back for Wolves on Stephens Day .

Cheers

My minimum price for a proper bet at the moment is 7/1 , over the years it’s reached double figures but never below 6/1 .

It’s just the way approach things when I look at a race . For example , this 1.40 on Thursday ... the 2 horses that I was interested in were Baltic Prince and Robero .

Apart from the draw being the obvious negative for both , the selection is 4 times the price of Robero so straight away I’ll focus on that one . This might sound daft but my definition of value is not beating SP , it’s more subjective .

I want the reward to be worth the risk and to be worth my time doing the study . I can just can’t get that if I’m betting at short (ish) odds .
Strike rate wouldn’t be my forte (as you can see from the thread so far !!) but I have total confidence that I’ll show a profit in the long run , betting decent priced runners at (99% of the time) level stakes .
I’m much happier getting a 20/1 winner after 15 losers than I would be after a pair of 5/2 shots . That’s just the way I’m wired up and that’s how I enjoy the challenge more .

I’m betting properly this way for almost 6 years and for the last 50 months , all my bets have been recorded .

Bordering on aftertiming or whatever here now but I’ve been profitable in 34 of those 50 months and overall , been profitable every year .

Wouldn’t expect anyone to pay any attention to or believe anything about past results but hopefully I’ll stay on here long enough to show it working out favourably again ....

So yeah , I’ve forgotten the question now after typing all that .... I suppose I just like the buzz of a big priced winner too and I’m happy to ride out the inevitable losing runs that come with big prices as long as I’m ahead in the long term

Just to add ... this thread is the first time I’ll be monitoring solely my AW bets . The profitability in the past is based on on mostly flat racing ,inc AW racing and also the bigger NH meetings , mostly Cheltenham .
Not changing the goalposts , just saying . I still expect to show a profit by the end of it ...

Staked : 138.5pts
Returned : 109.5pts

Staked : 140.5pts
Returned : 109.5pts

16/1 and 14/1 2nds today . Nice .

Staked : 143.5pts
Returned : 109.5pts


-34pt loss at the moment , p&l doesn’t make for great reading but on another day there would’ve been 32pts returned today so just have to keep chipping away at it until I get the breaks . I’ll be talking to myself on here by then if I’m not already !

Earl Of Bunnacurry , 4/1 SP but weakened out of it and virtually pulled up

Staked : 144.5pts
Returned : 109.5pts


A few interesting ones at Lingfield tomorrow , getting back to it later on . Still sulking after more 2nds at Leopardstown and Rangers winning

Dec 30

12.05 Lingfield -
SHAFFIRE 8/1

Sorry it’s late , was waiting for 8s

Earendil wrote: »

I feel your pain. I had a decent few quid ew on Cheeky Rascal at 18s today. And I still feel nauseous when I think of the race SpiritofTheGames lost to Warthog a few weeks ago. To get a return is grand but it still hurts like a kick in the balls to think of what that return could have been.

With regards to your system/rule of not backing ew...Would it be worth modifying it say maybe to ew on odds of 16s or bigger? I totally get your point about low grade handicaps being all or nothing affairs generally, but you’ve hit the crossbar plenty lately with fancy odds.

Ouch , unlucky .

It’s just not for me unless the odds are either very , very big and there’s a shortie in it I think will be hard to beat . Even then I’d be hoping for extra places or some other edge on top .
I’d rather play 2 different ones in the race at big odds than have 2 bets with one of them at a quarter or a fifth .
Plus it’s straightforward to do it on paper but ew betting really does bulk up the outlay and betting at even half decent stakes , it turns an average day into a big day quite often .

You’re spot on with what you’re suggesting though and it would’ve been a great help lately but in the long run (up to now anyway) its always worked itself out so just have to keep doing what I always do and wait for that to happen ...

And whinge a good bit along the way too obviously!

Dec 31

2.45 Lingfield -
LUIS VAZ DE TORRES 9/1 PP , BetVictor

3.20 Lingfield -
PORTO FERRO 16/1 generally
PERFECT SYMPHONY 16/1 generally

Yeah I sometimes do , either if I’m on one that’s well backed from early prices or if its a prominent runner there’s usually something to be had in-running .
I wouldn’t really go on about that here though as I just want to put up win tips and not get into advising lays ?
And to be honest , it’s just to cover part / most of the stake on certain bets and I wouldn’t always do it either

Not me this time Cherry


Staked : 156.5pts
Returned : 109.5pts

Haha
Inspirational stuff !

Jan 2

12.15 Lingfield -
MR MAC 14/1 generally

3.30 Lingfield -
NARJES 14/1 generally