Recession predictions

18-03-2020 12:28am

bilbot79 wrote: »

Actually....

'A group of swans, also once game birds, is a wedge when they're in flight, likely because of the shape a group of swans takes in flight. And while we can call a group of swans a bevy, a herd, a game, or a flight, they can only be a bank when they're on the ground.'

I did check this.

herd just had the right phonetic ring to it.

flock was like, fock no.

Roberto_gas · 18-03-2020 9:18am

World economy is in recession since last quarter of 2019...corona will just stamp that !

Wanderer78 · 18-03-2020 9:24am

Maybe now we ll see some much needed radical changes and differing approaches from major institutions globally, such as helicopter money and debt forgiveness, which probably should have been done during the previous recession

Zenify · 18-03-2020 10:40am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Maybe now we ll see some much needed radical changes and differing approaches from major institutions globally, such as helicopter money and debt forgiveness, which probably should have been done during the previous recession

Hopefully not. That sort of stuff got us here. Hopefully now we will see prudent lending and business practices.

Wanderer78 · 18-03-2020 11:50am

Zenify wrote: »

Hopefully not. That sort of stuff got us here. Hopefully now we will see prudent lending and business practices.

helicopter money hasnt been tried on a major level yet, this is whats called qe for the people, not the qe that has been done to date, which truly has just inflated asset markets. im just after receiving a phone call from a business owner whos now in panic mode, they virtually have no buffer, this which i suspect is common in many sectors, they agreed that helicopter money might just keep some businesses afloat. this is very radical thinking, but our not so radical institutions such as central banks arent exactly open to this kind of thinking. its interesting to hear countries such as hong kong have already done this, with other countries considering it

andrew · 24-03-2020 5:21pm

Would anyone like to predict some GDP figures? Irish Q1 GDP? Looks like most economies are shaping up for some truly massive QoQ declines.

Thespoofer · 30-03-2020 9:25am

What do ye guys think about the possibility of a 'bail in' happening in the near future?
For me it seems all the conditions are there,

- huge sums of money being pumped to keep economies going ( who is going to pay for this? )

-at present huge sums of money on deposit in people's bank accounts

- 'bail in' legislation brought in a few years ago

Seems to me it could go like Cyprus ( remember that) where basically people had thousands on deposit wiped out.

Would like to hear yer opinion as I'm a bit of a tin foil hat if I'm being honest.

Zenify · 30-03-2020 9:31am

Thespoofer wrote: »

What do ye guys think about the possibility of a 'bail in' happening in the near future?
For me it seems all the conditions are there,

- huge sums of money being pumped to keep economies going ( who is going to pay for this? )

-at present huge sums of money on deposit in people's bank accounts

- 'bail in' legislation brought in a few years ago

Seems to me it could go like Cyprus ( remember that) where basically people had thousands on deposit wiped out.

Would like to hear yer opinion as I'm a bit of a tin foil hat if I'm being honest.

All money in banks is guaranteed by the irish state to100k. Cant take money that they guarantee themselves?

Thespoofer · 30-03-2020 9:36am

Zenify wrote: »

All money in banks is guaranteed by the irish state to100k. Cant take money that they guarantee themselves?

So would I be right in saying that anything above 100k could be taken by government? ( genuine question)

Zenify · 30-03-2020 10:27am

Thespoofer wrote: »

So would I be right in saying that anything above 100k could be taken by government? ( genuine question)

By the bank in a situation where it fails, yes. Very unlikely, if we didnt let it happen after 2008 I doubt we will now. I do think this will be worse than 2008. But money in banks is secure. The damage to trust would be irreversible. We would never trust banks again. The EU would never allow it because of the damage to trust across the continent.

KyussB · 31-03-2020 1:45am

Yes there will be bail-ins. Early indications are that countries like Germany/Netherlands have already nixed any hope of Eurobonds or similar EU-level funding to assist with the crisis (prompting furious reactions from Spain/Italy) - there will only be the currently existing options, which will be coupled with austerity policies as a conditiion.

We're in for a repeat of the Euro crisis, fitting a similar pattern to the last recession - with many eurozone countries already in very bad shape economcally - with an even greater risk of the Euro imploding, from countries reverting to national currencies, than before.

It's not looking good at all. No lessons were learned from the last recession.

Tea drinker · 31-03-2020 10:10am

Zenify wrote: »

All money in banks is guaranteed by the irish state to100k. Cant take money that they guarantee themselves?

Wouldn't be surprised if they took the cash and issued a 10 year...guaranteed bond in it's place.

Geuze · 17-04-2020 12:35pm

March HICP data published today by Eurostat

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294628/2-17042020-AP-EN.pdf/3229e469-7748-a31e-c3e8-60949cea7641

Inflation dropped from 1.2% in Feb to 0.7% in March, in the euro area.

1.6% to 1.2% in the EU.

Roger the cabin boy · 29-04-2020 8:37pm

Prediction?

Economic Armageddon the likes of which most people born after the wars have never seen.

It's going to be very very tough

Geuze · 29-04-2020 10:13pm

andrew wrote: »

Would anyone like to predict some GDP figures? Irish Q1 GDP? Looks like most economies are shaping up for some truly massive QoQ declines.

US Q1 first estimate of GDP published today

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

Real GDP down 4.8% at an annual rate

Nominal GDP down 3.5%

Geuze · 30-04-2020 10:17am

Geuze wrote: »

US Q1 first estimate of GDP published today

https://www.bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-advance-estimate

Real GDP down 4.8% at an annual rate

Nominal GDP down 3.5%

Discussion of 40% drop in US GDP in 2020:Q2.

http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/04/economy-in-a-nose-dive

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56335

Geuze · 06-05-2020 11:20am

European Commission forecasts:

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_799

Euro area = -7.75% fall in GDP in 2020

Inflation to disappear.

https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/api/files/document/print/en/ip_20_799/IP_20_799_EN.pdf

Snow Garden · 06-05-2020 11:33am

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0505/1136606-exchequer-figures/

The Exchequer recorded a deficit of €7.473 billion in April, more than double the deficit of €3.192bn recorded in April of last year.

Just the start of it.

Roger the cabin boy · 08-05-2020 8:54am

Snow Garden wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0505/1136606-exchequer-figures/

Just the start of it.

Indeed...

Geuze · 14-05-2020 11:06am

CPI published today, for April 2020.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexapril2020/

We have moved into very mild deflation. Rate is -0.1%

"The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Communications (-8.0%), Clothing & Footwear (-3.9%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-3.1%) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-1.2%). There were increases in Education (+4.1%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+4.0%), Health (+2.3%) and Recreation & Culture (+1.9%).

Geuze · 14-05-2020 11:07am

Dec 2011 CPI = 100

Dec 2019 CPI = 103.6

Eight years, and 3.6% cumulative inflation, that is low.

Roger the cabin boy · 15-05-2020 12:30pm

Geuze wrote: »

CPI published today, for April 2020.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/cpi/consumerpriceindexapril2020/

We have moved into very mild deflation. Rate is -0.1%

"The most notable changes in the year were decreases in Communications (-8.0%), Clothing & Footwear (-3.9%), Furnishings, Household Equipment & Routine Household Maintenance (-3.1%) and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels (-1.2%). There were increases in Education (+4.1%), Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco (+4.0%), Health (+2.3%) and Recreation & Culture (+1.9%).

So, things you buy get cheaper because things you need are getting more expensive.

All aboard the deflation train!!

greenfield21 · 21-05-2020 11:02am

Mad to think we are still here in 2020 after 08 with huge intervention still chugging forward. Who have thought it. It's quite possible that we get out the other side of Covid and this could go on for many more years to come with distorted markets. It all looks completely unsustainable but where does it end.

PieOhMy · 21-05-2020 9:42pm

Could be a general malaise worldwide for the medium term in terms of inflation and economic growth a la Japan maybe? Certainly interesting times, its gas watching decisions that will be in textbooks for generations to come happening live!

Geuze · 29-05-2020 2:00pm

Eurostat April inflation data

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294852/2-20052020-AP-EN.pdf/4d69f01b-fe9a-c248-2627-cc2059ca2f31

EU = 0.7%

Euro-area = 0.3%

13 countries in mild deflation.

Geuze · 29-05-2020 2:03pm

Eurostat flash estimate for May inflation.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/10294840/2-29052020-AP-EN.pdf/82e74a7c-bfea-cc42-b842-260f2ce4039e

This is an estimate, not the official figure.

Euro-area = 0.1%

Main driver is energy price deflation.

Big jump in "unprocessed food" inflation in April 2020.

Voltex · 30-05-2020 10:01am

Very anecdotal I know, but my own business is considered "essential" and this is how we've traded since the start of the crisis.

Day 1 - almost instant 50% decline in sales. We had to let 40/107 staff go. All internal indicators painted toward a long terms slump in demand.

Mid April - sales stabilised around 60% of pre-covid. Good cash flow management is key here. We have mostly blue-chip customers who were themselves trading well, so cash flow planning was going to be fairly accurate. Smaller customers were approached early and payment plans in place - luckily very few needed to avail of this.

Late April - sales back to 65-70%. We looked to take back some staff that were laid off. Very few took up the offer. As people were laid off, they were getting rent holidays, so Covid payments plus rent holidays added up to being of more value.

Late May - sales are back to 90-95% of pre covid....and same old story, cant get staff.

I think the government did exactly the right thing by giving money directly to those who lost their jobs. I think it preserved a certain amount demand in the economy that might not have been there otherwise.

30-05-2020 10:03am

We will help the country recover if we stop buying so much from the UK and support local and Irish companies more.

30-05-2020 10:09am

I just cant see the major recession in ireland. The pharma sector here cant spend fast enough and that leads to huge secondary jobs. Intel are going ahead with their plant, construction of huge developments resuming. From what I can see there is still a huge shortage in skilled positions. There should be a program set up now for people in typical unskilled jobs to reskill as they will be hit hardest by this recession which will be retail and hospitality. Also if the irish will be competative in tourism there will be a huge domestic market this year.
We will feel the effects of 3 months of little economic activity but from what I am seeing the country will bounce back strong.

Zenify · 30-05-2020 10:20am

Voltex wrote: »

and same old story, cant get staff.

Lots of people are unemployed. I think many of them (myself included) arent willing to work 5 days a week for an extra €100

Deub · 30-05-2020 10:22am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I just cant see the major recession in ireland. The pharma sector here cant spend fast enough and that leads to huge secondary jobs. Intel are going ahead with their plant, construction of huge developments resuming. From what I can see there is still a huge shortage in skilled positions. There should be a program set up now for people in typical unskilled jobs to reskill as they will be hit hardest by this recession which will be retail and hospitality. Also if the irish will be competative in tourism there will be a huge domestic market this year.
We will feel the effects of 3 months of little economic activity but from what I am seeing the country will bounce back strong.

Every country is expecting a big recession but Ireland won’t be impacted?
I don’t see how it would be possible.

greenfield21 · 30-05-2020 11:04am

Deub wrote: »

Every country is expecting a big recession but Ireland won’t be impacted?
I don’t see how it would be possible.

Simply, our economy is built on fdi- these companies are the most profitable in the world who are coming here to avoid paying tax- will they lay people of or cut wages?? I doubt it as they are awash with cash. Look at other countries who have manufacturing tourism etc they are going to be hit much harder.

Deub · 30-05-2020 12:35pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

Simply, our economy is built on fdi- these companies are the most profitable in the world who are coming here to avoid paying tax- will they lay people of or cut wages?? I doubt it as they are awash with cash. Look at other countries who have manufacturing tourism etc they are going to be hit much harder.

Don’t you they will reduce their investments while the economy recover that some companies will go into bankruptcy?

For information, tourism is one of the biggest sector for the economy in Ireland.
Fdi employed 245k people in 2019, tourism: 265k people.
It looks like the economy is not only built around fdi.

theguzman · 30-05-2020 12:47pm

Deub wrote: »

Don’t you they will reduce their investments while the economy recover that some companies will go into bankruptcy?

For information, tourism is one of the biggest sector for the economy in Ireland.
Fdi employed 245k people in 2019, tourism: 265k people.
It looks like the economy is not only built around fdi.

Tourism only employs migrant workers and majority minimum wage salaries, a Facebook data analyst on €8k per month is the equivalent to 8 Eastern European/Brazilian hotel maids etc on minimum or less money. Tourism is not hugely important to the overall grand scheme of things any-more except in impoverished scenic regions like Kerry and Donegal etc.

Deub · 30-05-2020 1:21pm

theguzman wrote: »

Tourism only employs migrant workers and majority minimum wage salaries, a Facebook data analyst on €8k per month is the equivalent to 8 Eastern European/Brazilian hotel maids etc on minimum or less money. Tourism is not hugely important to the overall grand scheme of things any-more except in impoverished scenic regions like Kerry and Donegal etc.

Not all Fdi employees are paid 8k per month but I agree the wage of the tourism industry is lower but less people Employed in tourism means less tourist spending money here.
Tourism represents 9.3 billions to the economy which is not small change.

4068ac1elhodqr · 30-05-2020 1:36pm

Tourism is a easy win-win, folks arrive from afar, spend money and leave with much, much less cash than they came with.
Dave the data-analyst might only squirm away wages into tax efficent offshore investments, or bang the whole lot into property.

TUI had a 'slight' stock bounce back after Spain said the beaches would reopen, a one day share price gain of +52% recently.
The only risk to these sorts of gains is a wave2 come November (mixed with Norovirus, Inf A/B etc)

greenfield21 · 03-06-2020 3:13pm

Deub wrote: »

Don’t you they will reduce their investments while the economy recover that some companies will go into bankruptcy?

For information, tourism is one of the biggest sector for the economy in Ireland.
Fdi employed 245k people in 2019, tourism: 265k people.
It looks like the economy is not only built around fdi.

May corporate tax receipts 1.25b higher than may 2019 even though the economy was basically shut down. Recovery Looks good.

Deub · 03-06-2020 3:24pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

May corporate tax receipts 1.25b higher than may 2019 even though the economy was basically shut down. Recovery Looks good.

Interesting numbers! something to monitor in the coming months.
Can you share the link where you found this?

Zenify · 03-06-2020 5:13pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

May corporate tax receipts 1.25b higher than may 2019 even though the economy was basically shut down. Recovery Looks good.

Was that tax that was due for period before Covid?

What Username Guidelines · 03-06-2020 5:33pm

Deub wrote: »

Interesting numbers! something to monitor in the coming months.
Can you share the link where you found this?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0603/1145219-exchequer-returns-reveal-6-1bn-deficit-in-may/

An unexpected increase in the amount of corporation tax collected offset sharp declines across all other tax heads.

Spending was up ahead of where it was planned to be by 19% or €4.175bn.

The rise in expenditure reflects increased spending in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, particularly in relation to the Department of Health and the Department of Employment Affairs and Social Protection.

Corporation tax came in €1.224bn ahead of last year.

...

For the month of May, corporation tax receipts amounted to €2.5bn.

Zenify wrote: »

Was that tax that was due for period before Covid?

Yep

Mr Donohoe said this was over €1.2bn more than May of last year, but added that this increase mostly related to economic activity that occurred in 2019.

CBear1993 · 03-06-2020 5:39pm

Interesting thread. Working in the construction industry as a small subcontractor - own it with my father. I have a very negative outlook for the rest of the year unfortunately, despite always being a positive person.

Really finding it hard to see if we’ll make it to the end of the year- a lot of construction projects that were to go ahead pre Covid have all been shelved and clients are holding their money back now. Only construction projects that are going at the moment are ones that are already on site pre Covid.

wassie · 03-06-2020 6:20pm

greenfield21 wrote: »

May corporate tax receipts 1.25b higher than may 2019 even though the economy was basically shut down. Recovery Looks good.

I'm all for having a positive outlook, but how does exactly the recovery look good? Govt may have more money than expected, but with unemployment at 26% (adjusted) down from 28%, its not going to go far.

ESRI forecasting that even in the best case scenario, the Irish economy is set to experience the largest annual decline in its history. Thats a long road ahead I would think.

Deub · 03-06-2020 6:34pm

wassie wrote: »

I'm all for having a positive outlook, but how does exactly the recovery look good? Govt may have more money than expected, but with unemployment at 26% (adjusted) down from 28%, its not going to go far.

ESRI forecasting that even in the best case scenario, the Irish economy is set to experience the largest annual decline in its history. Thats a long road ahead I would think.

Without forgetting what the Minister of Finance said in February:

"one thing we can be certain of is that the current high levels of corporation tax cannot be relied on in the long term.”
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/corporate-tax-take-cannot-be-relied-upon-in-future-warns-donohoe-1.4189282

nthclare · 03-06-2020 6:44pm

theguzman wrote: »

Tourism only employs migrant workers and majority minimum wage salaries, a Facebook data analyst on €8k per month is the equivalent to 8 Eastern European/Brazilian hotel maids etc on minimum or less money. Tourism is not hugely important to the overall grand scheme of things any-more except in impoverished scenic regions like Kerry and Donegal etc.

What do you know about tourism ?
I'm working in tourism since 1996 and you're well off the mark suggesting that tourism doesn't pay well.

Impoverished regions like Donegal and Kerry.
I'm telling you one thing people in Kerry and Donegal have a way better quality of life than people packed into buildings like sardines all day, and emulating human cogs running the show for some narcissist ****ting down on everyone.

Comparing a Facebook data analyst to a few European/Brazilian maid's as you so eloquently suggest, then quantifying the costs of both and how it's going to give people the impression you're Johnny Cool...

I left the cooperative world and was a statistical analysis and data reconfiguration techie...

And it was the most soulless and mind numbing boring job ever, the people who were my colleagues were absolute dicks.
Pure jocks, most of them got caught out in the boom making stupid decisions and always hungover from banger or booze from Monday until Wednesday...

What a horific existence.

I'd much prefer to get paid less than be a miserable goon looking at a screen all day.

The tourism industry is very important,we have a lot to offer visitors and the domestic market is important too.
Oh I worked in fluff jobs and observed all the knobs bigging eachother up and trying to look down on others..

I suppose your idea of a Sunday is being hungover from the night before and trapsing around shopping centers looking for a Ralph Lauren Polo shirt.

Typical of the current yawwws looking down on people who earn an honest days work.

And by the way Facebook ain't going to last forever either

Doctors room ghost · 03-06-2020 6:45pm

The sale for point of lay pullets will sky rocket again with people going self sufficient.
The dog pounds and charities will be packed full of abandoned dogs aswell.
They’re my predictions

Gloomtastic! · 03-06-2020 6:49pm

Doctors room ghost wrote: »

The sale for point of lay pullets will sky rocket again with people going self sufficient.
The dog pounds and charities will be packed full of abandoned dogs aswell.
They’re my predictions

They both happened a few months ago.

Snow Garden · 03-06-2020 7:06pm

Deleted User wrote: »

I just cant see the major recession in ireland. The pharma sector here cant spend fast enough and that leads to huge secondary jobs. Intel are going ahead with their plant, construction of huge developments resuming. From what I can see there is still a huge shortage in skilled positions. There should be a program set up now for people in typical unskilled jobs to reskill as they will be hit hardest by this recession which will be retail and hospitality. Also if the irish will be competative in tourism there will be a huge domestic market this year.
We will feel the effects of 3 months of little economic activity but from what I am seeing the country will bounce back strong.

The sectors we will need to grow the economy again are Pharma/Tourism/IT/Agrifood. Let's look at each one.

Tourism: 11m tourists in 2019. Even stay-at-home tourism wont make up for half of that 2019 spend because consumer confidence is falling fast and many people on welfare.

Pharma/MedTech: Some companies are doing superb (eg. Covidien/Medtronic who make ventilators) but some are seeing a significant fall in demand (Boston/TE Connectivity). Boston stalled a planned expansion soon after Covid struck. TE/Creganna have gone to a 4 day week.

IT: Again some companies are doing well (Cisco/Avaya) but other companies are laying off IT staff at a rate of knots (e.g. Uber / AirBnB / Ryanair/ PaddyPower/ HPE). Almost Every IT company is reporting the risk of reduced enterprise customer spend. Customers are only investing time/money in ensuring their BAU systems are operational. Investment spend has stalled. The Q2 results in July will tell an awful lot.

Agrifood: Beef prices falling. Ireland/EU Restaurants not open and they are the key market for prime cuts of beef. People tend to eat steak in restaurants and mince at home...Beef exports to China stalled. Meat plants full of Covid. Kerrygold etc is seen as a niche product in Europe, demand will likely drop.

I dont see many upsides and it's only June.

Fred Cryton · 03-06-2020 7:52pm

Ireland is lucky as our 3 major value added industries - pharma, tech and finance are either doing ok (finance), doing pretty well (tech) or doing brilliantly (pharma) through this crisis.

It's important to understand that every other job in the economy is a function of these 3 sectors...These 3 sectors are what produce our standard of living.

Hospitality, tourism and retail are job rich but they're not wealth generating sectors - they are sectors through which the economy spends the wealth it has already generated in those 3 sectors.

So i would predict Irelands recovery to be faster that other countries - provided we make work pay by getting rid of the absurd 350 welfare payment.

kravmaga · 03-06-2020 10:05pm

Deub wrote: »

Every country is expecting a big recession but Ireland won’t be impacted?
I don’t see how it would be possible.

https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/labourmarket/monthlyunemployment/

Take a look at the stats, not exactly healthy now

Gloomtastic! · 03-06-2020 10:12pm

Fred Cryton wrote: »

So i would predict Irelands recovery to be faster that other countries - provided we make work pay by getting rid of the absurd 350 welfare payment.

Very surprised to see the unemployment figure down just 2% from two weeks ago. The above may be the main reason.

Recession predictions

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