FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

hatrickpatrick · 11-06-2019 2:17pm

Anyone else finding it rather irritatingly ironic that the charts we're seeing now are charts we would have killed for during November - February?

The Specialist · 11-06-2019 8:17pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Anyone else finding it rather irritatingly ironic that the charts we're seeing now are charts we would have killed for during November - February?

This whole year is a disappointment so far, we didn’t even get a real spring and now spring part 2 has decided to piss on our summer. Is it really too much to ask for a couple of weeks of weather that actually feel like summer?

compsys · 11-06-2019 8:37pm

The Specialist wrote: »

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

Anyone else finding it rather irritatingly ironic that the charts we're seeing now are charts we would have killed for during November - February?

This whole year is a disappointment so far, we didn’t even get a real spring and now spring part 2 has decided to piss on our summer. Is it really too much to ask for a couple of weeks of weather that actually feel like summer?

In the same vein is it too much to ask for a few weeks that actually feel like winter?

We’ve had insanely above average temps all winter and now below average summer temps. The absolute worst you could ask for IMO.

esposito · 11-06-2019 11:28pm

compsys wrote: »

In the same vein is it too much to ask for a few weeks that actually feel like winter?

We’ve had insanely above average temps all winter and now below average summer temps. The absolute worst you could ask for IMO.

Indeed. We have not had much luck thus far this year. Very frustrating but unfortunately this is Ireland and the Atlantic usually ruins our chances of hot weather in summer and cold weather in winter. Still, our luck has got to turn at some stage this year. A few weeks of warm sunshine (mid 20s) in July or August would be ideal.

hatrickpatrick · 13-06-2019 2:45am

ECM finally showing some decent high pressure over us from the first frame of FI in five days time, on to the end of the run. Let's hope it doesn't vanish over the next few days!

MJohnston · 13-06-2019 11:04am

The new operational core (FV3) of the GFS model has now been switched to the default operational model:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/us-weather-forecasts-get-a-software-update/

Curious if any of our expert watchers have noticed any changes because of this, or have you been keeping an eye on the FV3 runs anyway?

hatrickpatrick · 13-06-2019 7:08pm

MJohnston wrote: »

The new operational core (FV3) of the GFS model has now been switched to the default operational model:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2019/06/us-weather-forecasts-get-a-software-update/

Curious if any of our expert watchers have noticed any changes because of this, or have you been keeping an eye on the FV3 runs anyway?

The FV3 was spot on with the SSW around Christmas week and flagged it a fair few days before the (formerly) operational jumped on board - they both forecasted a warming of sorts in the strat, but in the early days the FV3 was the one showing the intense (red-dark red chart) warming while the operational showed a yellow-orange temperature gradient instead. FV3 also predicted the split earlier than the operational caught on, IIRC. They both verified eventually, but the FV3 got there first with a more or less accurate forecast, if my memory serves.

Ultimate Seduction · 13-06-2019 7:31pm

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

ECM finally showing some decent high pressure over us from the first frame of FI in five days time, on to the end of the run. Let's hope it doesn't vanish over the next few days!

How did this look over the last couple of runs ?

Solli · 13-06-2019 8:27pm

Can u put up a graphic for those of us who are wildly impressed with all this tech talk. Just to spread the hope like.

hatrickpatrick · 13-06-2019 8:52pm

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

How did this look over the last couple of runs ?

Solli wrote: »

Can u put up a graphic for those of us who are wildly impressed with all this tech talk. Just to spread the hope like.

It's not as hopeful today I'm afraid so I'll wait a while before posting graphics

It's still relatively hopeful, but not as much as yesterday. Give it another few runs.

Gonzo · 13-06-2019 9:17pm

latest ensembles is beginning to show a drying trend, particularly towards the final days of June.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-06-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2019-06-13&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

GFS shows a short lived slight ridge around the 19th to 21st of June, it may produce 2 or 3 days tops of dry conditions and nothing too warm. Goes unsettled again for Ireland from the 22nd of June.

The Control run looks more promising with maybe 4 or 5 days of warm and settled conditions.

It just all looks uncertain at this stage, I think we need a few more runs and more support before getting in any way excited. Overall i think the second half of June won't be as cold or wet as this first half.

Gonzo · 14-06-2019 1:28pm

To follow up from the last post, around the 25th and 26th of June looks decent, I was getting excited before the run had finished, more like wishful thinking.

But end of run a few days later shows a very familiar sight:

sryanbruen · 18-06-2019 12:03pm

NOTE: This post is for comical sakes. It is to be taken as a good laugh than anything serious.

The GFS 06z run this morning is about as crazy a model run I've ever seen with a hot southerly to southeasterly flow circulating around a slack area of low pressure to south of Ireland. This results in filtering the +25c isotherm into England which has never been seen in recorded history at 850hPa.

And this operational run has said to have been an upgrade on the previous GFS operational? :pac:

bazlers · 18-06-2019 2:14pm

Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.

sryanbruen · 18-06-2019 2:20pm

bazlers wrote: »

Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.

0.0000000001%

SleetAndSnow · 18-06-2019 2:22pm

bazlers wrote: »

Percentage wise likely hood of happening? It's not all that far off.

very low, it'll most likely be gone in the next run. Aka 99.99% chance of it being gone and not happening

Gonzo · 18-06-2019 2:25pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

NOTE: This post is for comical sakes. It is to be taken as a good laugh than anything serious.

The GFS 06z run this morning is about as crazy a model run I've ever seen with a hot southerly to southeasterly flow circulating around a slack area of low pressure to south of Ireland. This results in filtering the +25c isotherm into England which has never been seen in recorded history at 850hPa.

very unlikely to happen, would probably result in temperatures over 40C in London.

sryanbruen · 18-06-2019 2:32pm

Gonzo wrote: »

very unlikely to happen, would probably result in temperatures over 40C in London.

I'd say more along the lines of mid 30s given it would be only the end of June. 40c more as a possibility in late July or early August.

Anyway, like I said, posted it for comical sakes. One would seriously doubt the fact this has been a GFS upgrade on its old operational if it comes out with cold bias and now extreme heat.

bazlers · 18-06-2019 2:36pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

0.0000000001%

So you are telling me there is a chance,ðŸ˜

Gonzo · 18-06-2019 9:13pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I'd say more along the lines of mid 30s given it would be only the end of June. 40c more as a possibility in late July or early August.

Anyway, like I said, posted it for comical sakes. One would seriously doubt the fact this has been a GFS upgrade on its old operational if it comes out with cold bias and now extreme heat.

I remember during January and February, it was always over delivering on snow potential for us with the operational run much more conservative and accurate. If this holds could be troublesum for us this winter!

Meteorite58 · 18-06-2019 9:33pm

MT mentioning the plume around the 26 /27th and potential storm producer for Ireland and sryanbruen discussing the heat potential into the UK. ECM also showing around Mon 24th for potential frontal rains / Thunderstorms as LP comes up against the warmer airmass, as does the GFS .

Looks warm and sticky some of the time , possibly quite wet in places at times, but plenty of dry spells also. ECM going more N'ly at the end of the run , shows it warm for the first few days and cooler towards the end of the week. . An interesting week coming for weather watching and potential thunderstorms.

Still a long way off and less than clear .

eon1208 · 18-06-2019 10:40pm

It's looking like we wont have a few dry days together so. I have a question for Sryan. Physically speaking why was May so dry with the completely negative NAO. In comparison why was June so wet with the same negative NAO. I'm curious. Like to know.

Gonzo · 18-06-2019 11:16pm

looks more like Ireland will miss out any real warmth or settled conditions, staying more unsettled with the Atlantic influence over us. Hopefully we may see temperatures north of 19C for once this June!

HelloMrSnowman · 19-06-2019 6:13am

Look at us all fiending for the possibility of a day or two of reasonably okay weather, when this time last year we were getting sick of looking at runs like the one attached. Nearly a year ago to the day.

ItJustWorks · 19-06-2019 9:35am

Gonzo wrote: »

looks more like Ireland will miss out any real warmth or settled conditions, staying more unsettled with the Atlantic influence over us. Hopefully we may see temperatures north of 19C for once this June!

Supposedly there's some gremlins in the new GFS model. Do you think that's affecting the perception of the forecast while its being worked out?

Meteorite58 · 19-06-2019 9:45am

ECMWF this morning showing widespread big thunderstorms and heavy rains at times next week. Currently showing it beginning Sun night into Mon. Very early days but one to watch , looking at the charts the last couple of days makes me think next week currently has the look of possibly becoming a memorable collection of weather events .

pad199207 · 19-06-2019 9:49am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECMWF this morning showing widespread big thunderstorms and heavy rains at times next week. Currently showing it beginning Sun night into Mon. Very early days but one to watch , looking at the charts the last couple of days makes me think next week currently has the look of possibly becoming a memorable collection of weather events .

Yup looking at those runs it shows Ireland right in the firing line for some Severe Thunderstorms moving up from Biscay

Meteorite58 · 19-06-2019 10:02am

ECMWF also hanging on to the warmer airs to the end of the week. Proper cut off low enveloped in warm air. Also showing it much warmer than earlier runs, low 20's possibly nudging onto the mid 20's.

Will have to see if the runs continue this trend.

ZX7R · 19-06-2019 1:36pm

Meteorite58 wrote: »

ECMWF this morning showing widespread big thunderstorms and heavy rains at times next week. Currently showing it beginning Sun night into Mon. Very early days but one to watch , looking at the charts the last couple of days makes me think next week currently has the look of possibly becoming a memorable collection of weather events .

I was thinking something on a par with 1985 , were definitely over due.
Charts will probably back track though...

Gonzo · 19-06-2019 1:52pm

ZX7R wrote: »

I was thinking something on a par with 1985 , were definitely over due.
Charts will probably back track though...

that's certainly true, Ireland rarely ever gets decent thunderstorms, the last ones here in Meath we're indeed back in 1985, since then we've had the odd thunderstorm, but only baby ones, nothing too major and certainly nothing like the wonderful fireworks that England enjoys at least once most summers.

Gonzo · 19-06-2019 1:57pm

BBC's outlook for next week does look rather thundery for Dublin (which is very unusual), but temperatures expected to peak at 19C, compared to 28C over England. Hopefully it will be a bit warmer than 19C, we seem to be stuck on that temperature max since April!

Gonzo · 19-06-2019 2:46pm

ensembles for Dublin showing a significant rise in temperatures for the Dublin area and loads of precipitation next week.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-06-19&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2019-06-19&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=

Temperatures ramping up from a cool 0C @850hpa to possibly +20C @850hpa on some of the outlying members.
These certainly seem a bit extreme for Dublin, if there was sunny spells this would result in temperatures north of 25C on the ground in about a weeks time. Overall the last week of June does look significantly warmer than the first 3 weeks of June where temperatures should comfortably reach 20C or more.

sryanbruen · 19-06-2019 5:08pm

Gonzo wrote: »

I remember during January and February, it was always over delivering on snow potential for us with the operational run much more conservative and accurate. If this holds could be troublesum for us this winter!

Indeed. The GFS operational run has continued to churn out these ludicrously warm charts yesterday evening and today again, generally not QUITE GFS 06z levels from yesterday thankfully but still ridiculous enough.

Until something is done with this GFS, don't think I'll be looking at it or using it as a guide for forecasts rather something to have a laugh at. It's like the NAVGEM's long lost brother.

eon1208 wrote: »

It's looking like we wont have a few dry days together so. I have a question for Sryan. Physically speaking why was May so dry with the completely negative NAO. In comparison why was June so wet with the same negative NAO. I'm curious. Like to know.

Despite the anomalous -NAO in May, there was lots of ridging from Iberia (and some ridges from the Greenland High too) which influenced our weather. The Atlantic was blocked off from pushing through for the most part. May could have been an even colder and wetter month if we didn't have that ridging as central Europe had quite a cold May. There was one part of the month which was indicative of the June pattern we've had though and that was around the 8th/9th. The first chart was typical of May 2019 with high pressure ridging through us but its centre was to the northwest so was not warm whilst troughing was over Scandinavia and central Europe. The second chart from 8 May 2019 was more indicative of June.

Meteorite58 · 19-06-2019 11:56pm

ECMWF there with the warm temperatures on the 12Z run again for next week , into the 20's and perhaps touching the mid 20's in places around Tues/ Weds, probably less warm Thurs and Fri but still in the high teens.

With the cut off low positioned where it is we will have to see what type of moisture it brings up over us from the S, SE and E directions and what potential there is for thunderstorm development .

squarecircles · 20-06-2019 5:15pm

in all my time looking at the thunderstorm risk charts on the GFS iv never seen such a high chance of activity over Ireland. So rare to see the bright red/orange/yellow shadings over Ireland. Is nobody remotely excited? Met Eireann also highlighting the risk of some thunderstorms as early as sunday night. 25 degrees at midnight in Ireland !? i think the gfs has gone mad.

JCX BXC · 20-06-2019 5:24pm

The 25°c is the maximum temperature between 9pm and midnight iirc.

Still, interesting weather afoot. I will be watching developments with interest.

The Specialist · 20-06-2019 5:27pm

I’ll take the temperatures no problem but anything other than dry sunny days with those can **** right off, enough of it this summer.

aisling86 · 20-06-2019 5:32pm

Trying not to get too excited I reckon it will end up being quite localised rather than widespread but hopefully I'll see some of it!

pauldry · 20-06-2019 7:36pm

Itl be 22c in Malin Head at midnight I predict

But Sligo prob 17c by day and 21c by night

This Summer is just a sick joke.

12c now n its midsummers day tomorrow

sryanbruen · 20-06-2019 7:52pm

Looks like the ECM has joined the GFS in really turning up the furnace, somehow even warmer than the GFS OP this evening. Very sticky, humid air!

squarecircles · 20-06-2019 8:21pm

All the main models now aligned for intense heat in southern uk, the heat also transfers more westwards on the latest ECM which would bring an increase in temperatures here.

Meteorite58 · 20-06-2019 8:48pm

The ECM has certainly being bringing up the temperatures over the last few runs , going by the 12Z run we could be seeing temps getting up around :

Tues... 24C
Weds... 25C
Thurs... 26C
Fri... 26C
Sat... 24C

Could be seeing some dense fog at times next week and sea fog.

Dew Points getting up around 18C next weds to 20C Thu

Will see nearer the time precipitation forecasts and potential for thunderstorms.

JCX BXC · 20-06-2019 9:24pm

Sticky!

Luke-m · 20-06-2019 9:30pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Sticky!

That’s one way of putting it. The dew points are horrible.

eon1208 · 20-06-2019 9:37pm

Luke-m wrote: »

That’s one way of putting it. The dew points are horrible.

What effect do the high dew points have folks.

LEIN · 20-06-2019 9:55pm

eon1208 wrote: »

What effect do the high dew points have folks.

Very sweaty weather.

JCX BXC · 20-06-2019 10:14pm

eon1208 wrote: »

What effect do the high dew points have folks.

A fancy way of saying high humidity really.

ZX7R · 21-06-2019 8:23am

eon1208 wrote: »

What effect do the high dew points have folks.

You will have the same people complaining it's too hot,that have been complaining it's been so cold...

Meteorite58 · 21-06-2019 7:31pm

ECM 12Z rolling out .What a chart !

Twice as warm 850hPa temps as the GFS.

high 20's or over 30C if this came off.

Next one :eek:

Maybe an outlier maybe not.

A record breaker perhaps if it happened like this.

Long way off and no doubt twists and turns to come.

squarecircles · 21-06-2019 7:39pm

this westward shift seems to becoming a trend. fingers crossed.

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring / Summer 2019 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST