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Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

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13567…317

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    #62
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    We have little faith in Johnson but still hope that he will throw the DUP out and put the border in the sea. It’s the only or least worst option and way forward I can see


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    #63
    riddles
    Registered Users Posts: 1,043 ✭✭✭riddles


    Germany exports 60 billion to the UK and imports 30 billion from the UK. They’ll want to protect that above all else. I’d reckon they’ll not give a monkeys toss about Ireland. We have 200 billion national debt largely unsecured debt which we took and nationalised to protect German banks.

    We needn’t fool ourselves our needs are anything other than a side show.


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    #64
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users Posts: 17,008 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    riddles wrote: »
    Germany exports 60 billion to the UK and imports 30 billion from the UK. They’ll want to protect that above all else. I’d reckon they’ll not give a monkeys toss about Ireland. We have 200 billion national debt largely unsecured debt which we took and nationalised to protect German banks.

    We needn’t fool ourselves our needs are anything other than a side show.

    So this is the 'Ireland will be thrown under the bus by Germany' narrative favoured by Brexiters? If that was the case, it would have made a lot more sense for Germany to have done that years ago rather than at the last minute


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    #65
    volchitsa
    Registered Users Posts: 7,019 ✭✭✭volchitsa


    riddles wrote: »
    Germany exports 60 billion to the UK and imports 30 billion from the UK. They’ll want to protect that above all else. I’d reckon they’ll not give a monkeys toss about Ireland. We have 200 billion national debt largely unsecured debt which we took and nationalised to protect German banks.

    We needn’t fool ourselves our needs are anything other than a side show.

    Wow. That's some major rewriting of history right there. Nothing to do with Irish politicians, and others including most of the media, encouraging a massive property bubble which had no basis in real needs but was panicking people into borrowing way over their capacities?

    Not to mention (Irish) people losing the run of themselves. Someone I know, just an ordinary guy with a small business, had a private helicopter he used to use to pick up friends go to parties. Like FFS.

    Germany wasn't the cause of Ireland's financial meltdown. Ireland was. You need to grow up a bit.


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    #66
    Tikki Wang Wang
    Closed Accounts Posts: 332 ✭✭Tikki Wang Wang


    Was there any feedback or spin on Sajid Javid’s trip to Germany? Didn’t see much in the English media


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    #67
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Tikki Wang Wang wrote: »
    Was there any feedback or spin on Sajid Javid’s trip to Germany? Didn’t see much in the English media


    Here's a tweet from Chancellor of the Exchequer Javid:

    “Enjoyed meeting Olaf Scholz in Berlin today. The UK will definitely be leaving the EU on Oct 31st – it is in our mutual interest to do so with a Deal, but we will be ready to leave with No Deal.”


    Here's a tweet from Finance Minsister Scholz:

    "Good meeting today with my new UK colleague @sajidjavid. We discussed #Brexit and future cooperation. The EU27 stands united and is ready for all scenarios. The best and only way for an orderly withdrawal is the negotiated #Brexitdeal"


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    #68
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,577 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    riddles wrote: »
    Germany exports 60 billion to the UK and imports 30 billion from the UK. They’ll want to protect that above all else. I’d reckon they’ll not give a monkeys toss about Ireland. We have 200 billion national debt largely unsecured debt which we took and nationalised to protect German banks.

    We needn’t fool ourselves our needs are anything other than a side show.


    If Germany exports 750 billion euro to the single market, why would they give all of that up for 60 billion? Nobody has been able to explain that and why Germany would go this way. Maybe you can give it a go.

    Intra-EU trade in goods - recent trends


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    #69
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,180 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Enzokk wrote: »
    If Germany exports 750 billion euro to the single market, why would they give all of that up for 60 billion? Nobody has been able to explain that and why Germany would go this way. Maybe you can give it a go.

    Intra-EU trade in goods - recent trends
    But 60 billion is such a big number! It's a funny brexiteer trope that somehow all that trade stops "because y'know that's what all those tariffs do" without wondering what replaces that trade or how it's replaced without any trade deals. It's the 'pick 'n' mix brexit. Take the bits that suit your argument and ignore the small print. A bit like Johnson and his ignorance of paragraph 5(c) of Article XXIV GATT.


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    #70
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,478 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    riddles wrote: »
    Germany exports 60 billion to the UK and imports 30 billion from the UK. They’ll want to protect that above all else. I’d reckon they’ll not give a monkeys toss about Ireland. We have 200 billion national debt largely unsecured debt which we took and nationalised to protect German banks.

    We needn’t fool ourselves our needs are anything other than a side show.

    Germany need not be too worried. As I understand from the various missives from the UK, German exports are mostly cars, the UK will reduce tarrifs to zero on everythig they dont produce domestically, and the UK car industry will collapse under no deal. So a no deal will suit Germany because it will increase their exports to the UK, after a brief period of uncertainty.

    This is the real reason why the German car industry hasnt been putting the pressure on, because they stand to turn that 60bn into 80bn and the 30bn UK imports into 10bn.

    Now, if it is the case that lies have been told by the British about the German car industry, then obviously I would be wrong. But going on Brexiteer statements and views, there is no reason to think the German economy will face any adverse impact


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    #71
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Bloomberg don’t usually publish rumours or nonsense but this could be either.
    Johnson could be plotting an early surprise exit to outflank manoeuvres to replace him?



    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-tory-suggests-johnson-could-execute-surprise-august-brexit?cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit&utm_medium=social&utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter


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    #72
    prawnsambo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,180 ✭✭✭✭prawnsambo


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    Bloomberg don’t usually publish rumours or nonsense but this could be either.
    Johnson could be plotting an early surprise exit to outflank manoeuvres to replace him?



    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-tory-suggests-johnson-could-execute-surprise-august-brexit?cmpid%3D=socialflow-facebook-brexit&utm_medium=social&utm_content=brexit&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter
    I'm not sure a unilateral exit works legally. Yes, the UK can repeal all EU laws and go it alone. But the EU will still recognise them as a member because EU law won't have changed.


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    #73
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,406 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »
    Germany need not be too worried. As I understand from the various missives from the UK, German exports are mostly cars, the UK will reduce tarrifs to zero on everythig they dont produce domestically, and the UK car industry will collapse under no deal. So a no deal will suit Germany because it will increase their exports to the UK, after a brief period of uncertainty.

    This is the real reason why the German car industry hasnt been putting the pressure on, because they stand to turn that 60bn into 80bn and the 30bn UK imports into 10bn.

    Now, if it is the case that lies have been told by the British about the German car industry, then obviously I would be wrong. But going on Brexiteer statements and views, there is no reason to think the German economy will face any adverse impact

    The sale of high end German cars into the UK could suffer 10% tariffs, but didn't Mercedes drop their car prices by 10% across the board in recent times. So price would not be too big a problem if they could afford that then, then there is enough margin to be flexible on price to keep sales going.

    The big question is whether there is the market for them - in other words, will there be a recession or even a depression?

    Also, if the UK car assembly business tanks because of delays and export tariffs into the EU, what will be the effect on the UK sale of Vauxhall Astras and Nissan Quashqai? Will the UK be swamped with them, or will they be in short supply? Honda are already packing up, will Nissan be far behind? And what of BMW - will they move to Holland or Eastern Europe?


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    #74
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    prawnsambo wrote: »
    I'm not sure a unilateral exit works legally. Yes, the UK can repeal all EU laws and go it alone. But the EU will still recognise them as a member because EU law won't have changed.

    Note his plan for NI:

    Answer Irish border Q with NI only referendum on NI only backstop


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    #75
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »

    Germany need not be too worried. As I understand from the various missives from the UK, German exports are mostly cars, the UK will reduce tarrifs to zero on everythig they dont produce domestically, and the UK car industry will collapse under no deal. So a no deal will suit Germany because it will increase their exports to the UK, after a brief period of uncertainty.

    This is the real reason why the German car industry hasnt been putting the pressure on, because they stand to turn that 60bn into 80bn and the 30bn UK imports into 10bn.

    Now, if it is the case that lies have been told by the British about the German car industry, then obviously I would be wrong. But going on Brexiteer statements and views, there is no reason to think the German economy will face any adverse impact

    What? That makes little sense and is typical of the thinking of this forum

    UK may reduce tarrifs for some stuff but what's going to happen with autos is that it will be a quick trade deal with the US and a possible deal with Japan in relation to this in relation to cars. Tarrifs on other countries cars e.g Germany could be much much higher

    Now the standard reply to this is the house Dems will block that type of deal, so they are really going to turn around to factory workers and say "nope we are blocking this" Trump would love that and the Dems know this (and it's not like Irish Americans are even that solid a Dem group anymore).


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    #76
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    That's my point, the German economy is wobbly now before Brexit, brexit would of course harm UK more but it will hit key German sectors to a certain extent. Why do you think in general Merkel has played good cop compared to others because this is understood.
    This sub is very very ideologically pro-EU but I don't get how posters here don't understand how statements by Macron and Junker both pretty unpopular individuals themselves and leaks particularly the big one probably by Martin Selymar play straight into the ERG's hands.

    The requirement of DUP support is the issue on UK side and that was a screw up offer Borris (without leaking it first) something like 2-5 year limit on backstop for the WA end of which would trigger a immediate NI border/status poll and I believe it would pass with labour rebel support.

    The solution to the problem somehow always seems to be to give the UK a get out of jail free card. Why would Ireland/The EU want to risk everythng on a border poll? The UK is bound by the GFA to ensure no hard border in Ireland, why should we allow them to side step that obligation through a border poll? We don't need a border poll, the solution is the UK living up to its obligations, otherwise they get no-deal.


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    #77
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    johnnyskeleton wrote: »

    Germany need not be too worried. As I understand from the various missives from the UK, German exports are mostly cars, the UK will reduce tarrifs to zero on everythig they dont produce domestically, and the UK car industry will collapse under no deal. So a no deal will suit Germany because it will increase their exports to the UK, after a brief period of uncertainty.

    This is the real reason why the German car industry hasnt been putting the pressure on, because they stand to turn that 60bn into 80bn and the 30bn UK imports into 10bn.

    Now, if it is the case that lies have been told by the British about the German car industry, then obviously I would be wrong. But going on Brexiteer statements and views, there is no reason to think the German economy will face any adverse impact

    What? That makes little sense and is typical of the thinking of this forum

    UK may reduce tarrifs for some stuff but what's going to happen with autos is that it will be a quick trade deal with the US and a possible deal with Japan in relation to this in relation to cars. Tarrifs on other countries cars e.g Germany could be much much higher

    Now the standard reply to this is the house Dems will block that type of deal, so they are really going to turn around to factory workers and say "nope we are blocking this" Trump would love that and the Dems know this (and it's not like Irish Americans are even that solid a Dem group anymore).


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    #78
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    Note his plan for NI:

    Answer Irish border Q with NI only referendum on NI only backstop


    This ties in to the biggest mystery of it all.

    The DUP are against the backstop and the border in the sea because it somehow sets off their insecurities and ‘cuts them off from the mainland’.

    But if they get their way, NI crashes hard economically and a UI becomes all but inevitable.

    So if the border in the sea happens, the idea of a border poll disappears.

    So why don’t they get on board with the border in the sea? It prevents a UI probably ever happening surely?


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    #79
    Melanchthon
    Registered Users Posts: 1,118 ✭✭✭Melanchthon


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    Melanchthon wrote: »
    That's my point, the German economy is wobbly now before Brexit, brexit would of course harm UK more but it will hit key German sectors to a certain extent. Why do you think in general Merkel has played good cop compared to others because this is understood.
    This sub is very very ideologically pro-EU but I don't get how posters here don't understand how statements by Macron and Junker both pretty unpopular individuals themselves and leaks particularly the big one probably by Martin Selymar play straight into the ERG's hands.

    The requirement of DUP support is the issue on UK side and that was a screw up offer Borris (without leaking it first) something like 2-5 year limit on backstop for the WA end of which would trigger a immediate NI border/status poll and I believe it would pass with labour rebel support.

    The solution to the problem somehow always seems to be to give the UK a get out of jail free card. Why would Ireland/The EU want to risk everythng on a border poll? The UK is bound by the GFA to ensure no hard border in Ireland, why should we allow them to side step that obligation through a border poll? We don't need a border poll, the solution is the UK living up to its obligations, otherwise they get no-deal.

    A hard border f-cks northern Ireland and the border counties in the republic of Ireland. Its not a get out of jail free card its a compromise position that in the end allows the people most effected to make their own choice. Hell poll could even offer NI only backstop as an option as well as rUK and joinROI.

    How is the attitude your displaying to this suggestion not putting EU interests ahead of Irish interests


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    #80
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    What? That makes little sense and is typical of the thinking of this forum

    UK may reduce tarrifs for some stuff but what's going to happen with autos is that it will be a quick trade deal with the US and a possible deal with Japan in relation to this in relation to cars. Tarrifs on other countries cars e.g Germany could be much much higher

    Now the standard reply to this is the house Dems will block that type of deal, so they are really going to turn around to factory workers and say "nope we are blocking this" Trump would love that and the Dems know this (and it's not like Irish Americans are even that solid a Dem group anymore).

    How long did Japan's trade deal with the EU take to negotiate?


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    #81
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    What? That makes little sense and is typical of the thinking of this forum

    UK may reduce tarrifs for some stuff but what's going to happen with autos is that it will be a quick trade deal with the US and a possible deal with Japan in relation to this in relation to cars. Tarrifs on other countries cars e.g Germany could be much much higher

    Now the standard reply to this is the house Dems will block that type of deal, so they are really going to turn around to factory workers and say "nope we are blocking this" Trump would love that and the Dems know this (and it's not like Irish Americans are even that solid a Dem group anymore).

    The Democrats have made it clear that the UK can go whistle if they undermine peace in NI. Pelosi does not make statements like that if she does not have the votes to make it happen.

    As for the Japanese, what makes you think they won't take their sweet time in doing a trade deal? The longer no-deal lasts the weaker and more desperate the UK becomes, why should the Japanese not keep the UK dangeling to force greater concessions?

    But let them go right ahead and take the gamble that the world will take pity and give the UK sweetheart deals all over the place to save them from their folly, lets see how it works out.


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    #82
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    This ties in to the biggest mystery of it all.

    The DUP are against the backstop and the border in the sea because it somehow sets off their insecurities and ‘cuts them off from the mainland’.

    But if they get their way, NI crashes hard economically and a UI becomes all but inevitable.

    So if the border in the sea happens, the idea of a border poll disappears.

    So why don’t they get on board with the border in the sea? It prevents a UI probably ever happening surely?

    Ideology and fear. Anything seen as a win for a UI is a loss for the Union and vice versa. Just like the ERG, jobs and the economy are secondary for the DUP.


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    #83
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users Posts: 14,359 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    A hard border f-cks northern Ireland and the border counties in the republic of Ireland. Its not a get out of jail free card its a compromise position that in the end allows the people most effected to make their own choice. Hell poll could even offer NI only backstop as an option as well as rUK and joinROI.

    How is the attitude your displaying to this suggestion not putting EU interests ahead of Irish interests

    The backstop, as proposed by the British government, was the compromise.


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    #84
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    The Democrats have made it clear that the UK can go whistle if they undermine peace in NI. Pelosi does not make statements like that if she does not have the votes to make it happen.

    As for the Japanese, what makes you think they won't take their sweet time in doing a trade deal? The longer no-deal lasts the weaker and more desperate the UK becomes, why should the Japanese not keep the UK dangeling to force greater concessions?

    But let them go right ahead and take the gamble that the world will take pity and give the UK sweetheart deals all over the place to save them from their folly, lets see how it works out.



    Just to add, the Irish American element over there is populated by republicans and democrats both. It’s one of the rare examples of cross party bipartisanship on international affairs. And it has considerable clout.


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    #85
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    A hard border f-cks northern Ireland and the border counties in the republic of Ireland. Its not a get out of jail free card its a compromise position that in the end allows the people most effected to make their own choice. Hell poll could even offer NI only backstop as an option as well as rUK and joinROI.

    How is the attitude your displaying to this suggestion not putting EU interests ahead of Irish interests

    Our interests are already served in the GFA. The solution is that UK needs to respect and abide by its obligations. There is no reason for us to bargain away the UKs obligations to the NI border by betting it on a border poll. If the UK is willing to break its obligations under an international treaty, then another treaty with them is not worth the paper it is written on.


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    #86
    Charles Babbage
    Registered Users Posts: 5,499 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Imreoir2 wrote: »
    The solution to the problem somehow always seems to be to give the UK a get out of jail free card. Why would Ireland/The EU want to risk everythng on a border poll? The UK is bound by the GFA to ensure no hard border in Ireland, why should we allow them to side step that obligation through a border poll? We don't need a border poll, the solution is the UK living up to its obligations, otherwise they get no-deal.


    If there should be a poll then there should be a backstop poll in NI.


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    #87
    Stop moaning ffs
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,850 ✭✭✭Stop moaning ffs


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If there should be a poll then there should be a backstop poll in NI.

    He’s profoundly stupid but Johnson’s won’t and can’t give NI a referendum on the backstop / border In the sea.
    Remainers in England, Scotland and pretty much everyone would say why do they get a second vote on this?
    But I guess if brexit has taught us anything it’s that the most bizarre unexpected thing is the most likely


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    #88
    Imreoir2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,435 ✭✭✭Imreoir2


    Charles Babbage wrote: »
    If there should be a poll then there should be a backstop poll in NI.

    I don't see why that should be necessary. The requirement that there be no physical border with NI stems from the GFA, it is already a binding requirement on the UK. They need to get their act together, there is no reason for us to bargin with them over their obligations or offer them a get out of jail free card by betting their existing obligations on a border poll or backstop poll in NI.

    We should not be offering them concessions becasue they threaten to break their obligations under a binding international treaty.


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    #89
    swampgas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,536 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    How is the attitude your displaying to this suggestion not putting EU interests ahead of Irish interests

    Irish interests and EU interests are very much aligned here. In the same way that the German car industry understands that the integrity of the Single Market is more important to their long term success than a reduction in sales to the UK, Ireland knows that its success in the global economy depends hugely on remaining part of the EU, and depends hugely on the EU remaining consistent to its core principles.

    Your own attitude comes across as one of panic. We do not need to appease the UK out of fear for what they might do to us. Those days are over, even if some in the UK don't seem to know it yet.


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    #90
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,478 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Melanchthon wrote: »
    What? That makes little sense and is typical of the thinking of this forum

    UK may reduce tarrifs for some stuff but what's going to happen with autos is that it will be a quick trade deal with the US and a possible deal with Japan in relation to this in relation to cars. Tarrifs on other countries cars e.g Germany could be much much higher

    Now the standard reply to this is the house Dems will block that type of deal, so they are really going to turn around to factory workers and say "nope we are blocking this" Trump would love that and the Dems know this (and it's not like Irish Americans are even that solid a Dem group anymore).

    Well of course it doesnt make sense if you know that much of what is said about Brexit by British politicians is a lie, but if you accept what they say as true regarding no tarrifs on items not domestically produced, together with all the bad news regarding their own domestic car manufacturing, it would mean the German economy would benefit from a No Deal rather than be hurt by it. Im just exposing the inconsistent positions taken by Brexiteers, rather than making a perdiction.

    Regarding the House of Congress, youre right. They wont reject a US-UK Trade deal which wholly favours American businesses, forces the UK to take US rules and basically makes the UK a US dependency or vassal state. They will only reject a trade deal as described by Brexiteers and Trump e.g. the quickest, best deal in history. However, would a deal that Congress is willing to sign up to pass the House of Commons?


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    #91
    Strazdas
    Registered Users Posts: 18,094 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Stop moaning ffs wrote: »
    This ties in to the biggest mystery of it all.

    The DUP are against the backstop and the border in the sea because it somehow sets off their insecurities and ‘cuts them off from the mainland’.

    But if they get their way, NI crashes hard economically and a UI becomes all but inevitable.

    So if the border in the sea happens, the idea of a border poll disappears.

    So why don’t they get on board with the border in the sea? It prevents a UI probably ever happening surely?

    The DUP are all into flags and symbolism. The flags and anthems and displays of loyalty to the Crown take precedence over everything (many would argue their loyalty comes from a place of deep insecurity, not strength).


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