FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Gonzo · 06-10-2020 9:24pm

nacho libre wrote: »

October will probably be our winter. I really hope it does not turn out like last year, but once the PV gets going and the south westerlies set in we all know that's a pattern that is hard to shift.

I too am getting very worried with how cold this October is becoming, this is happening 8 to 10 weeks too early and I find it very hard to believe we can maintain this pattern into November which is still autumn, never mind the heart of winter itself.

As we are well aware Zonal muck can go on for months and months without interruption, while winter cold spells and warm summer spells rarely last for more than one or two weeks and it's back to normal service.

Fingers crossed if we do get the mild zonality back in November, that we can have another go at this in December or January. I'm completely fed up of cold spells happening final days of February and into March. We can still get cold during overall mild winters, even a 3 day snowy period in an overall mild winter would satisfy most people.

pauldry · 07-10-2020 8:51am

90% of Decembers must be Zonal muck

You can almost guarantee it now

Maybe January will be unzonal muck

bazlers · 07-10-2020 10:57am

The trends are not showing that cold. Maybe .5 to 1 degree below in some places.

Gonzo · 07-10-2020 12:16pm

bazlers wrote: »

The trends are not showing that cold. Maybe .5 to 1 degree below in some places.

next week could be 1 to 2 degrees below average and then the trend is to back to normal or slightly milder than average for November.

Temperatures are set to become average in the second half of October so once we get next week out of the way it should start to warm up slightly.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-10-07&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-10-07&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Meteorite58 · 07-10-2020 12:57pm

https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120?s=20

Meteorite58 · 08-10-2020 10:10am

More settled and less rain and wind than of late it would seem, wet and damp at times but rain looks lighter and more patchy, perhaps some cloudy days. Staying generally on the cool side, some quite cold nights perhaps leading to frosts.

Gonzo · 08-10-2020 3:54pm

The GFS ensembles now run out to 4 weeks. The 2 weeks ensembles are still available but there is an extended option now too. Of course these would be even more unreliable than the regular 2 week ensembles but I thought it'd show it here just for fun. As they have a months worth of data they are even more tricky to read than before. This is the months trend for Dublin and it appears we keep slightly cooler than average conditions all the way into November with alot of rainfall associated with it.

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=99&date=2020-10-07&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

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As we move into November the precipitation remains constant but it does start to take on a sleety nature towards the end of the run during November.

smellyoldboot · 11-10-2020 2:04am

I think I speak for all of us when I say: "BUT WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS HA?"

Gonzo · 11-10-2020 12:24pm

smellyoldboot wrote: »

I think I speak for all of us when I say: "BUT WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS HA?"

very, very unlikely. Even if we end up with a cold winter the chances of it snowing on Christmas Day would still be very low.

PokeHerKing · 11-10-2020 12:26pm

smellyoldboot wrote: »

I think I speak for all of us when I say: "BUT WILL WE HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS HA?"

Pretty sure Christmas is cancelled this year anyway.

giveitholly · 11-10-2020 8:24pm

PokeHerKing wrote: »

Pretty sure Christmas is cancelled this year anyway.

So if it does snow on the 25th and with Christmas cancelled technically it won't be a white christmas!!!!!

Artane2002 · 11-10-2020 10:50pm

I can't upload the charts but in deep FI, the GFS 12z is showing sleet and snow in northern, eastern and western areas on the 24th. Just for fun of course, extremely unlikely to happen. I think the GEM was showing either a 1055 or 1060 hPa high over Greenland!

pauldry · 12-10-2020 10:11am

Anything is possible with 2020 vision :cool:

SleetAndSnow · 12-10-2020 10:44am

Artane2002 wrote: »

I can't upload the charts but in deep FI, the GFS 12z is showing sleet and snow in northern, eastern and western areas on the 24th. Just for fun of course, extremely unlikely to happen. I think the GEM was showing either a 1055 or 1060 hPa high over Greenland!

Saw my name mentioned this early ;o . Southern areas this year please

definitely worth keeping an eye on though saw it yesterday myself

Hooter23 · 12-10-2020 11:46am

Recent charts look strange alright...with very cold air to the north east already...chance of cold coming in from north west or even more of an easterly direction towards end of the month with cold building there already...we might get a taste of winter very early this year...like we did about 10 years ago...we'll see sure

Gonzo · 12-10-2020 12:02pm

getting cold in this early comes with health warnings, it can mislead us into thinking we are lining up a very cold winter. There has been times before where we do get alot of blocking in October and first week of November only for the PV to power up very quickly with a very mild winter. October 1974 was one such year, lots of northern blocking in October and then a very mild winter with very little if any snow.

On the other hand sometimes a cold October can be a sign for what is in store over the winter. From what I can remember 2010 started off very warm on October 1st but within days we had cooled down considerably with northern blocking getting going and we all know what happened during November and December that winter!

nacho libre · 12-10-2020 1:00pm

That's interesting about 2010. I wonder what October 1962 was like. Was there a Canadian warming prior to that winter?

sryanbruen · 12-10-2020 4:25pm

Gonzo wrote: »

getting cold in this early comes with health warnings, it can mislead us into thinking we are lining up a very cold winter. There has been times before where we do get alot of blocking in October and first week of November only for the PV to power up very quickly with a very mild winter. October 1974 was one such year, lots of northern blocking in October and then a very mild winter with very little if any snow.

On the other hand sometimes a cold October can be a sign for what is in store over the winter. From what I can remember 2010 started off very warm on October 1st but within days we had cooled down considerably with northern blocking getting going and we all know what happened during November and December that winter!

Not necessarily, the warmest point of October 2010 was the 8th to the 12th when we were in a transitioning period from changeable to settled. The high pressure retrogressed from central Europe, Scandinavia around the 8th to a mid-Atlantic ridge by the 12th but exerting enough influence to keep Ireland dry. It was very sunny at first and warm for October with peach blue skies on the 11th and 12th but these sunny conditions became limited to the west as cloud came in from the east.

All this blocking is nothing unusual to be seeing in October in the context of recent autumns we've had. October 2016 had a notable Scandi High with a lot of easterly winds early on. October 2017 was largely southwesterly but November had fairly regular northerlies. October 2018 ended with a very cold northerly despite the warm start and November 2018 developed a Scandi High which brought easterly winds but due to a relatively mild continent and Irish Sea, precipitation fell as rain. Autumn 2019 was largely blocked in the high latitudes from late September onwards with October a particularly blocked month dominated by a southerly tracking jet, whilst November tended to have blocking over the Urals.

What's more unusual is the extent of it. None of the recent autumns have matched the level of blocking forecast by some models. That anticyclone to the south of Greenland projected by the GEM is record breaking and unprecedented. Such blocking has not been observed during the month of October before so have no precedents to go off of. This blocking will likely result in a good expansion of Siberian snow cover though bad for sea ice. Recent models have started to show a western based -NAO with deep low pressure from the south bringing relatively mild conditions during the third week of October despite the huge blocking over Greenland and the Arctic. Models are notorious for struggling with high latitude blocks so expect these changes.

nacho libre wrote: »

That's interesting about 2010. I wonder what October 1962 was like. Was there a Canadian warming prior to that winter?

October 1962 was a settled month with average temperatures for its time, and yes in early November.

sryanbruen · 12-10-2020 8:08pm

Well this would be something :pac:

ECM 12z ends on this deep low slap bang over Ireland heading north with gales and storm force wind gusts in the Irish Sea.

Meteorite58 · 12-10-2020 8:47pm

ECM and GFS again showing unusual place for LP to deepen South of us and moving in a general S to N direction ( been hinting at this for a few runs now ) . ECM deepens the system more on the latest run as Sryan posted above. Both showing it becoming quite wet from later Sunday into Monday, more so from the ECM which is currently showing flooding type rain for southern counties. All this dependent on lots of wheels rotating together. Meridional Jet of late seems to power up a bit. Direction of LP systems bringing moisture sourced from the tropics so will be watching to see if it will get quite wet. Like the weather event that the UK and France got recently would expect it to take a number of days for any idea of knowing what track and strength will martialize .

Meteorite58 · 13-10-2020 9:17pm

Nothing severe showing up for next week on the current runs, could be quite wet at times and blustery but every run is different this far out. Areas of LP will be knocking about so will see if any track will deepen close to us but for now impossible to know. Trending unsettled.

Meteorite58 · 14-10-2020 8:17pm

GFS really stepped back from developing LP's next week, ECM showing a wet start to the week but not much after that, UKMO showing a very wet day around next Monday.

So bit of a climbdown at the moment for next week in general but still signs of wet or very wet weather around next Monday.

Some very cold nights showing up next week from both of the main models.

Meteorite58 · 15-10-2020 8:36pm

After stepping back from LP development over Ireland the models are well and truly back to showing systems meandering near and over us for much of next week. Not wet all the time but wet spells. After the heavy rain at the start of the week, Weds and the weekend standing out as possibly heavy especially the weekend. To me models look to be suggesting that the Atlantic is getting back into action. Looks blustery and windy on the coasts at times but nothing too severe showing up as yet anyway. The weekend of the 24th will be watching to see if the weather gets lively and tropical remnants possibly getting into the mix the week following.. GFS out into FI is all from the Atlantic.

Both models showing a Meridional Jet stream pattern I reckon, slower moving systems with possibly high rainfall accumulations.

Looking like being not overly cold or mild.

My tuppence worth anyway

Gonzo · 16-10-2020 3:04pm

yep big changes are on the way to something much more unsettled. It does appear the Atlantic is about to be unleashed with low pressure after low pressure heading for us and zonality coming back big time for final 10 days of October and into the first half of November.

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ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=6&date=2020-10-16&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

We turn very unsettled from October 20th with lots of rainfall spikes and temperatures becoming more normal with less in the way of colder than average temperatures, however it may still be slightly cooler than normal at times with low pressures moving north-west to south-east over us. The northern blocking which has influenced our weather for much of the past month is easing allowing the Atlantic to dominate our weather for the forseeable future.

By the end of the GFS run we see the purple colours coming back over Greenland and the pole indicating the Polar Vortex is going to intensity properly over the next few weeks.

Nothing very mild or cold on the horizon, looks like a repeat of last years November is on the table with plenty of rain and often windy conditions.

GEM is similar with deep areas of low pressure lining up one after another with Ireland directly in the path of the Atlantic systems from the north Atlantic.

I will probably give the garden a final cut during the weekend before the rains come back next week.

Slashermcguirk · 17-10-2020 11:51am

November is always such a grim month. It’s one month of the year I really never look forward to, windy and wet most years. At least October you have the nice colours in the trees and as seen this months plenty of pleasant weather. December to February you tend to get some nice snow showers. November is too soon for proper winter weather and equally too late in the year for proper warmth, awful month

Meteorite58 · 17-10-2020 1:56pm

Models showing it potentially getting livelier from next weekend . Jet firing up. Looks like there could be a couple of Storms about.

Meteorite58 · 17-10-2020 2:06pm

Charts looking on the colder side, windy and wet in off the Atlantic with a NW'ly component to it. Will see it the trend gathers pace for rougher weather out towards the end of the run.

Hooter23 · 17-10-2020 6:18pm

Charts looking messy during last week of the month with potential for stronger storms than it is currently showing...charts might get more interesting by then

pad199207 · 17-10-2020 6:33pm

Hooter23 wrote: »

Charts looking messy during last week of the month with potential for stronger storms than it is currently showing...charts might get more interesting by then

Interesting weather nonetheless and hopefully encourages people to stay at home more.

PukkaStukka · 17-10-2020 7:59pm

pad199207 wrote: »

Interesting weather nonetheless and hopefully encourages people to stay at home more.

Indeed. The weather of late was a little conducive to the virus spreading

Meteorite58 · 18-10-2020 3:03pm

Both GFS and ECMWF showing it quite windy and wet on Saturday. After that GFS going on to show other very windy spells but ECM backs off . After Saturday GEM backs off also.

Meteorite58 · 18-10-2020 8:21pm

ECM back showing some very windy weather at times after the weekend , Looking like Monday and Weds and maybe Thurs also ,possibly stormy in coastal areas ( Sat quite windy also but not too strong as yet).

In general looking colder also although those 850hpa charts often moderate a bit.

Indications of very wet weather over the next 10 days from all those systems heading our way.

The Jet well and truly fired up close to and over us.

Certainly some very unsettled weather possible.

Meteorite58 · 19-10-2020 11:46pm

The GFS has been showing various scenarios for early next week with some crazy deep storms forming, a couple of times like the latest run it has shown the remnants of Hurricane Epsilon being swept along the Jet and merging with LP and forming into storms. Every run is different but the latest looking particularly strong if keeping the strongest winds off Ireland. ECM showing a similar storm forming but without the remnants of Epsilon but at this stage anyway showing it potentially very windy. These charts are in flux but it is the possibility that is worth keeping an eye on.

Around Thurs again the GFS showing a disturbance but the ECM dropped this.

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2020 12:23am

ECM now showing the remnants of Epsilon merge with a LP system and much colder air than it's warm core and a steering fast jet giving a steep thermal gradient leading to a large storm forming and current projections going down as low as 912hPa well off the NW coast closer to Iceland than us but showing a very large wind field. The ECM not showing the wind as strong as the previous run for Ireland, on the other hand the GFS which has been quite consistent with this for a number of runs goes on to show it very stormy on the latest run. I am very aware this is 7 days away, and we have seen how the models have been suffering from the lack of data input from observations with wild swings from run to run from some set ups, but even on a good day these kind of set ups are usually hard to pin down until relatively close to the event or non event. The ECM was showing a number of wind events next week but once it took on the present set up it dropped a lot of the other patterns. The GFS has been more consistent in this regard showing unsettled spells next week. Will be interesting and a good learning opportunity to see how this pans out one way or the other.

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2020 12:46am

A wide spread of possible outcomes so more days to have some kind of a more reliable idea.

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2020 10:51am

ECMWF back showing strong winds along Atlantic coasts but not penetrating inland much on the latest runs ( Saturdays active front looks stronger atm but fast moving )

Range of possible minimum pressures , avg seems about 930 hPa or so between the two main models.

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2020 8:03pm

Similar to previous run, very deep, strongest winds on this run keeps to Atlantic coastal counties and more so to the coastal areas. Long way off though.

GFS track further away and hence lighter winds on its last run.

Very big seas predicted

At +144hrs UKMO track it further away than the ECM

Meteorite58 · 21-10-2020 8:55pm

Good piece in the Met Eireann Meteorologists Commentary

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/meteorologists-commentary

Meteorite58 · 22-10-2020 9:27am

GFS has backed off the Remnant Low next week but keeps secondary Lows firing up in towards us. ECM brings the track closer but not showing the secondary lows come as close as the GFS so lots of uncertainty yet.

Currently ECM showing coastal areas getting the strong winds late Tues / early Weds

UKMO appears to be taking a track like the GFS, ICON bit closer like ECM. GEM tracks it up towards Greenland.

Meteorite58 · 22-10-2020 8:18pm

Very wide spread between the main models this evening, GFS has been tracking much further away with no real impact, ECM 12Z just brought the remnant low much closer but not packing the same punch as earlier runs but the fact that it is closer would still give some strong winds. ECM would give windy weather from Tues evening to early Thurs morning and another disturbance crossing the country later Thurs. Showing high rainfall accumulations along Atlantic counties.

Would think the ECM has been showing the most consistent track. But would need to see it hold this for a number of runs to be anywhere close to being confident in it.

Meteorite58 · 23-10-2020 11:58am

The turn of the GFS to bring the remnants close to us around next Tues/ Weds whilst the ECM on the last run backs off . Plenty of twists and turns to come yet. GFS goes on to show a disturbed pattern.

Met Eireann quite bullish this far out ' TUESDAY: The remnants of Hurricane Epsilon will impact upon our shores during the midweek period. Scattered blustery heavy showers are expected on Tuesday, along with fresh to strong and gusty southerly winds. Wet and very windy or stormy after dark, in strong to gale force and gusty south to southwest winds. The rain will turn thundery at times with the risk of hail. Highest temperatures 11 to 14 degrees Celsius.

WEDNESDAY: Sustained high winds and frequent showers are expected with the ongoing risk of hail and embedded thunderstorms. Highest temperatures 9 to 12 degrees Celsius.

ECM and GFS very different out at +240 hrs, GFS producing a deep storm and ECM building HP and introducing mild Southerlies.

HIRES not as strong as previous runs

Meteorite58 · 25-10-2020 12:15am

Charts showing a very strong Jet over or near us out to +240hrs, quite a few fast moving LP's showing up that could bring windy and wet weather at times, main models currently show it to be quite unsettled around Thurs and over next weekend. Getting milder in general for a few days at the end of the week.

ECM showing Atlantic coastal counties getting high rainfall accumulations.

Lot of Southerly sourced airflow.

Meteorite58 · 26-10-2020 12:05am

From Met Eireann :

LATEST FARMING COMMENTARY

Forecast issued at: Sunday 25th October 2020 15:00

Weather conditions over the next 7 days will be very unsettled, with above normal rainfall expected almost everywhere with good portions of the country expected to see between 200 and 300% of average. The east will be marginally drier overall but 150% of norm is still expected.

Some very wet days coming up the following week especially along Atlantic coastal counties and the Western side of the country as it is all coming in off the Atlantic, Mountain areas looking exceptionally wet . The weekend coming looks very wet. Tentative signs of Hp building after next weekend from the ECM. GFS showing it to be still disturbed first few days of Nov before ridge builds. Will see.

Sat 31st

ECMWF

pW9OtE2.png?1

Sunday 1st

a28dJMm.png?2

BLIZZARD7 · 26-10-2020 11:05am

Hints of something cooler developing on this mornings ECM and GFS in the extended range. Interesting Arctic High building on the ECM - possible Greeny high coming after these charts? Something to keep an eye on anyway.

Day 9

ECH1-216.GIF?26-12

Day 10

Meteorite58 · 28-10-2020 1:04am

A few days of HP would be welcome next week.

GFS not as good.

BLIZZARD7 · 28-10-2020 1:57am

Still miles out in FI but I really like the way the ECM and to some extent the GFS in deep FI are trending - Watch for Height rises to our North/North West to show up in the coming days.

Loaded with potential here -

ECH1-240.GIF?27-0

US2 · 28-10-2020 2:22am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Still miles out in FI but I really like the way the ECM and to some extent the GFS in deep FI are trending - Watch for Height rises to our North/North West to show up in the coming days.

Loaded with potential here -

Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?

Supercell · 28-10-2020 6:12am

US2 wrote: »

Sorry for being an idiot but loaded with potential for what?

Hint's in the posters name

konman · 30-10-2020 7:00am

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gem/runs/2020103000/gemnh-0-240.png?00

if only

BLIZZARD7 · 31-10-2020 4:41pm

Blocked is definitely the Theme in FI on the ECM and GFS today - Still day 9/10 before things look interesting but looking very likely we will atleast have a settled seasonal spell with the day 10 means showing a big High pressure over Ireland/The UK.

ECM operational is a thing of beauty with a Greeny high and a nice cold pool to our north about to drop south-

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST