Are we headed for another crash?

Samuel T. Cogley · 25-03-2017 11:14pm

mojoeback wrote: »

the end is nigh .......................................................................................................... or maybe a very old post

There was no need for that extraneous punctuation. Less is more. :pac:

melloa · 26-03-2017 12:16am

currency stability is going to be replaced by, ehh, currency flexibility

please helpThank YOU · 26-03-2017 6:51am

people in Ireland thinking we are booming when we see new cars sales up.What this says to me is that John and Mary. are now 500 euros poorer a month. but the feel Great lovely Smell of New car. next the get a credit Gold card with 30000 euros credit limited lets going a spending spree you know where this is all going another crash you can 100 per cent see its here.

ChikiChiki · 26-03-2017 7:06am

Nows the time to accumulate a ball of cash and line up the investors for the inevitable crash. Then swoop in.

please helpThank YOU · 26-03-2017 7:27am

My Grandfather had 650 men working for him in London in 1960s to 1990s and in the 90s a lot of his staff had new cars but he was driving a 15 years old van and. when the crash of 1990 to 1991 came 650 men where on the dole. my Grandfather retired a very rich/ wealthy Man he has since past away my Grandmother still lives in London in home worth over 8 million pound paid for and the are the most down to earth people you could ever meet. no toffee nose stuff.and yes there is a crash coming its called Brexit. this Crash is going to be big time 2008 will not get a look in. start saving big time .

Wanderer78 · 26-03-2017 7:47am

please helpThank YOU wrote:

My Grandfather had 650 men working for him in London in 1960s to 1990s and in the 90s a lot of his staff had new cars but he was driving a 15 years old van and. when the crash of 1990 to 1991 came 650 men where on the dole. my Grandfather retired a very rich/ wealthy Man he has since past away my Grandmother still lives in London in home worth over 8 million pound paid for and the are the most down to earth people you could ever meet. no toffee nose stuff.and yes there is a crash coming its called Brexit. this Crash is going to be big time 2008 will not get a look in. start saving big time .

Ah brexit will be small fry when compared to the next major financial crisis, prepare for it, it's in the post

please helpThank YOU · 26-03-2017 7:49am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Ah brexit will be small fry when compared to the next major financial crisis, prepare for it, it's in the post

You are 100 per cent right I totally agree with you big time

26-03-2017 7:50am

please helpThank YOU wrote: »

My Grandfather had 650 men working for him in London in 1960s to 1990s and in the 90s a lot of his staff had new cars but he was driving a 15 years old van and. when the crash of 1990 to 1991 came 650 men where on the dole. my Grandfather retired a very rich/ wealthy Man he has since past away my Grandmother still lives in London in home worth over 8 million pound paid for and the are the most down to earth people you could ever meet. no toffee nose stuff.and yes there is a crash coming its called Brexit. this Crash is going to be big time 2008 will not get a look in. start saving big time .

Moral of the story? Build a company employing 500+ people for 30+ years and you'll be fine. Oh yeah, and don't buy new cars.

Dwarf.Shortage · 26-03-2017 8:26am

Asset prices are being supported at artificially high levels at the moment by QE and as central banks stop buying vast swathes of assets (particularly bonds) prices will normalise. It's not all bad though because falling bond prices mean increased yields which will help bridge the holes in pension funds.

Also wouldn't be surprised if Trumps tax measures underwhelmed and led to a sharp correction.

Wanderer78 · 26-03-2017 8:43am

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Asset prices are being supported at artificially high levels at the moment by QE and as central banks stop buying vast swathes of assets (particularly bonds) prices will normalise. It's not all bad though because falling bond prices mean increased yields which will help bridge the holes in pension funds.

Also wouldn't be surprised if Trumps tax measures underwhelmed and led to a sharp correction.

....or a complete collapse of the global monetary system, whos knows!

Dwarf.Shortage · 26-03-2017 8:56am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

....or a complete collapse of the global monetary system, whos knows!

At least if you're stuck for tinfoil you can tear a strip off the hat.

marvin80 · 26-03-2017 8:59am

please helpThank YOU wrote: »

my Grandmother still lives in London in home worth over 8 million pound paid for and the are the most down to earth people you could ever meet.

Bit of an oxymoron there

Wanderer78 · 26-03-2017 9:10am

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

At least if you're stuck for tinfoil you can tear a strip off the hat.

im afraid you can ditch all that neoclassical stuff, its all nonsense

begbysback · 26-03-2017 9:17am

There is no crash in sight -- bookmark

Last crash was mostly due to borrowing off the strength of worthless / non existent assets - or borrowing to pay for highly inflated assets

There is no proof of this in sight again

Spend away people

bored_stupid · 26-03-2017 9:17am

This in the independent this morning about noonan and Enda.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taoiseach-and-noonan-personally-briefed-facebook-and-google-on-apple-tax-row-35565523.html

They hav,nt even appointed a Brexit minister yet for the north but they can meet these .

We don,t want another maned boarder again they need get there priorities right .

And the italian Banks are fcuked mario draghi been cooking the books .

remind me of this the count . imo

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIniljT5lJI

jester77 · 26-03-2017 9:22am

If we resurrect this thread every year, if will eventually be right

Mongfinder General · 26-03-2017 9:24am

bored_stupid wrote: »

This in the independent this morning about noonan and Enda.

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/taoiseach-and-noonan-personally-briefed-facebook-and-google-on-apple-tax-row-35565523.html

They hav,nt even appointed a Brexit minister yet for the north but they can meet these .

We don,t want another maned boarder again they need get there priorities right .

Noonan and Kenny won't be in politics when Brexit actually happens. They couldn't give a fcuk

RobbingBandit · 26-03-2017 9:24am

Kicking the auld can down to the local again, then go in and spend €7 on a pint, recession 2.0 me bollix.

deandean · 26-03-2017 9:24am

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Mr. teddywinkles · 26-03-2017 9:59am

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

The soft landing being the taxpayers hah

Noddyholder · 26-03-2017 10:28am

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Since when has this miracle happened ?

26-03-2017 10:39am

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Just wow. You must be joking
This is either the funniest post ever on boards, or the scariest

Congratulations either way I suppose

Bishopsback · 26-03-2017 10:41am

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

But a soft landing doesent mean you will be able to pay your debts.
If govt drives a policy then prices will only keep going up, the govt will be made to take the blame for a situation created by the masses complaining about homelessness.
A solving of the homelessness issue shouldn't be an excuse for overheating the construction industry.
I'm glad I'm not starting off now!
http://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/firsttime-home-buyers-warned-they-are-at-risk-of-a-new-debt-trap-35565678.html

GhostyMcGhost · 26-03-2017 10:45am

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

They couldn't anticipate the sun rising even on the most and anticipating-est day of their lives even if they had an electrified anticipating machine

One More Toy · 26-03-2017 10:48am

Mr. teddywinkles wrote: »

The soft landing being the taxpayers hah

Not quite, the single resolution fund directed by EU will see bank creditors taking the fall; plus reserves are now significantly higher due to Basel III.

I dont believe the same bank collapses will happen again with the stricter regulatory environment.

That said, if the government goes bust we will still be well and truely f**ked

One More Toy · 26-03-2017 10:49am

GhostyMcGhost wrote: »

They couldn't anticipate the sun rising even on the most and anticipating-est day of their lives even if they had an electrified anticipating machine

In reality, you will find commentators on both sides regularly saying that a crash is coming/a surge is coming. its all bull****, nobody can time the wider market falls.

Mongfinder General · 26-03-2017 10:52am

One More Toy wrote: »

Not quite, the single resolution fund directed by EU will see bank creditors taking the fall; plus reserves are now significantly higher due to Basel III.

I dont believe the same bank collapses will happen again with the stricter regulatory environment.

That said, if the government goes bust we will still be well and truely f**ked

But surely the Regulators will be all over a situation like that before it happens. Surely they are checking, assessing and monitoring arrangement put in place by Institutions under the BRRD?

ChikiChiki · 26-03-2017 1:13pm

deandean wrote: »

No, I don't see a crash coming.
Our bankers and politicians have learned a lot from the mistakes of the past.
They will ensure that any future crash is anticipated, and becomes a 'Soft Landing'.

Haha, i see what you did there. Great sarcasm.

Yourself isit · 26-03-2017 1:26pm

I thought that the last crash would be caused by increases in interest rates. So it did. To a certain extent. ECB Interest rates increased from 2 to 4.25% from end 2006 to 2008.

Then interest rates fell to 0%.

So unless you think that we never go past 2% again trackers will be in trouble.

There's a bit of give in retail rates though. In Ireland they are expensive precisely because trackers are losing money so I dont see the retail rates tracking ECB rates at the same delta.

However the US has started tightening. Let's see what the ECB does.

One More Toy · 26-03-2017 2:13pm

Mongfinder General wrote: »

But surely the Regulators will be all over a situation like that before it happens. Surely they are checking, assessing and monitoring arrangement put in place by Institutions under the BRRD?

Indeed. The reporting requirements are more stringent, monthly reporting to central bank etc. Therefore I think any crash will not come from the banking system but rather the "old-style" decline in GDP

demanufactured · 26-03-2017 2:15pm

Are we headed for another crash?
Only if people are stupid....which they probably are.

jetsonx · 26-03-2017 5:29pm

We'll have to wait and see what rent-an-economist Jim Power says first...Everything hinges on him.

(as long as his sponsors him write a big enough cheque - he'll say anything they want him to say...)

ToddyDoody · 26-03-2017 5:35pm

It's the derivatives crash on the way, or so they say.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/718361/Deutsche-Bank-s-36-TRILLION-in-risky-derivatives-may-lead-Lehman-style-collapse

Wanderer78 · 26-03-2017 8:13pm

One More Toy wrote: »

Not quite, the single resolution fund directed by EU will see bank creditors taking the fall; plus reserves are now significantly higher due to Basel III.

I dont believe the same bank collapses will happen again with the stricter regulatory environment.

That said, if the government goes bust we will still be well and truely f**ked

unfortunately in some cases, the main creditors in some banks are in fact depositors, and its looking likely that bank bail ins will be applied if these banks go bust.

if a government goes bust, why doesnt it do what banks do, and create money out of thin air?

demanufactured wrote: »

Are we headed for another crash?
Only if people are stuoid....which they probably are.

what if the economic and financial systems in which we all depend on are fundamentally flawed, leading to 'bad' decisions?

deandean · 26-03-2017 8:19pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Just wow. You must be joking
This is either the funniest post ever on boards, or the scariest

Congratulations either way I suppose

Thank you Andy, after seven years and 1722 posts my pofferings of Dramatic Irony are finally recognised.
I shall print your comment on 120gsm parchment, and frame it.
I may change my name to Bondholder, as I have been burned.
I lost a lot. But not my sense of humour. It kept me alive ☺

Laois_Man · 26-03-2017 8:24pm

There is no question that another crash will happen - Its as sure as the seasons of the year. The question is when and how bad.

You only have to look at the Matt Damon narrated documentary "Inside Job" and how the last one happened and then look at what people like Trump are doing and saying!

Wanderer78 · 26-03-2017 8:27pm

Laois_Man wrote: »

There is no question that another crash will happen - Its as sure as the seasons of the year. The question is when and how bad.

You only have to look at the Matt Damon narrated documentary "Inside Job" and how the last one happened and then look at what people like Trump are doing and saying!

personally much prefer renegade incs documentary 'four horsemen' explaining the crash

Laois_Man · 26-03-2017 8:42pm

Wanderer78 wrote: »

personally much prefer renegade incs documentary 'four horsemen' explaining the crash

Haven't seen it. Must have a look

Wanderer78 · 26-03-2017 8:50pm

Laois_Man wrote: »

Haven't seen it. Must have a look

i actually didnt know about inside job, i ll have a gander thanks.

four horsemen, enjoy:

donegaLroad · 26-03-2017 9:02pm

before sanctions were lifted in 2016, Iran were swapping comodities for oil with India, China and Turkey. This would have had a knock on effect and it would have been the end of the petro-dollar... that would have been some sort of a melt-down?!

please helpThank YOU · 27-03-2017 12:17am

Wanderer78 wrote: »

i actually didnt know about inside job, i ll have a gander thanks.

four horsemen, enjoy:

Thank You Just watched it make you think.

Laois_Man · 27-03-2017 10:54am

This is where to watch Inside Job - 2010 Oscar winner for best documentary!

YouTube doesn't have good quality video for this, other than the trailer

http://documentary-movie.com/inside-job/

mariaalice · 27-03-2017 11:03am

Inside job is brilliant at explaining how complex financial derivatives and bonds work.

Laois_Man · 27-03-2017 11:42am

please helpThank YOU wrote: »

Thank You Just watched it make you think.

Yes, it would all make you think that maybe we should be sending our children to school for them to learn survival skills and hunting skills rather than send them there to learn algebra.

Except we've also destroyed the hunting game stocks, fish stocks etc and the ability to keep land fertile into the future too!

Laois_Man · 27-03-2017 2:23pm

Just finished watching Four Horsemen.
It's alright but I much preferred Inside Job

Are we headed for another crash?

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