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Who will be Ireland's 1st choice outhalf at the next world cup?

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    #62
    UAEguy2020
    Registered Users Posts: 2,098 ✭✭✭UAEguy2020


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    Exactly, it should be more of a comeback story rather than him slowly declining between one WC and the next, and still being Ireland’s best option at 10.

    Ireland is always reluctant to drop a big name. They need another big name to usurp them. So it won’t be a problem if H Byrne kicks on and becomes the obvious challenger. It’s hard to drop a declining former star for a normal player like Burns.

    It’s been a long time since Ireland hasn’t had a world class 10 in either ROG or JS. But we might be heading into a period where they don’t have a world class 10.

    At this point Sexton needs to play.

    We do have some players with potential to be world class (Harry byrne,Joey Carbery,Ben Healy) but at this point it’s a matter of getting them up to speed so we can smoothly transition one of them into the 10 shirt for 2023.


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    #63
    CMcsporty
    Registered Users Posts: 1,587 ✭✭✭CMcsporty


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    If Sexton is the out half at the next World Cup, then it will almost certainly mean that 10 is a weakness in the Ireland team.

    The best on-form player should be picked for the WC and if that’s JS then fair play. But chances of him being close to as good in 2023 as he was in 2019, are very slim.

    Its not even very slim! It's a physiological impossibility!

    He has long history of "lower back", hamstring and calf injuries.

    It would be a financial gamble if the irfu were to give him another year.
    One i think they cant afford to take.


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    #64
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    I admire Sexton and his drive, but I doubt he'll be an option in 2023. His body won't hold up imo. The odds are long.
    That said, someone has to stand out. I reckon Healy is a good bet. I think he will be starting for Munster soon enough.
    Burns, with more experience could be our 10. He's been good so far.
    RB imo, just plays too deep. Unless he changes his approach and becomes a viable running threat he won't kick on.
    Carty is either brilliant or me.
    HB is talented, but is still got to pass his brother and Sexton.
    Lowry could be a dark horse. But again, Burns is Ulster 10.
    Which leads me back to PJ. would they bring him back?
    Carberry would have to be wrapped in cotton wool. His body has already taken a beating and there's no sign of him returning.


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    #65
    Paul Smeenus
    Registered Users Posts: 4,367 ✭✭✭Paul Smeenus


    Dubinusa wrote: »
    I admire Sexton and his drive, but I doubt he'll be an option in 2023. His body won't hold up imo. The odds are long.
    That said, someone has to stand out. I reckon Healy is a good bet. I think he will be starting for Munster soon enough.
    Burns, with more experience could be our 10. He's been good so far.
    RB imo, just plays too deep. Unless he changes his approach and becomes a viable running threat he won't kick on.
    Carty is either brilliant or me.
    HB is talented, but is still got to pass his brother and Sexton.
    Lowry could be a dark horse. But again, Burns is Ulster 10.
    Which leads me back to PJ. would they bring him back?
    Carberry would have to be wrapped in cotton wool. His body has already taken a beating and there's no sign of him returning.

    They will never bring PJ back.

    Besides which, is he still the player he was?


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    #66
    Dog Botherer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,641 ✭✭✭Dog Botherer


    Jackson will never play in Ireland again, and on the basis of the form over the past few years wouldn’t start for any of the provinces regardless.


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    #67
    td1
    Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭td1


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    If Sexton is the out half at the next World Cup, then it will almost certainly mean that 10 is a weakness in the Ireland team.

    The best on-form player should be picked for the WC and if that’s JS then fair play. But chances of him being close to as good in 2023 as he was in 2019, are very slim.

    He wasn't good in 2019! But then again neither were most of the others. Nor have he/they been good enough this year.


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    #68
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,004 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    I see the IRFU saying they’ll judge sexton on form rather than age when negotiating his contract. That seems to suggest they’re negotiating a central contract. But surely a 1 year extension rather than a multi-year deal or a deal that gets him to the next WC.

    They’re pointing out that players have gotten to world cups at 37 or 38 before so sexton could do it. I don’t judge them for saying this stuff because it’s the kind of thing they need to say and there’s no value in talking him down. I just hope they’re not taking it too seriously.

    If H Byrne, Carbery, Healy all fail to be good enough or injury free for the World Cup, then sexton might be a good option. But only as a last resort. Planning to have a 38 year old out half is to plan for another mediocre World Cup.


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    #69
    td1
    Registered Users Posts: 143 ✭✭td1


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    I see the IRFU saying they’ll judge sexton on form rather than age when negotiating his contract. That seems to suggest they’re negotiating a central contract. But surely a 1 year extension rather than a military year deal or a deal that gets him to the next WC.

    They’re pointing out that players have gotten to world cups at 37 or 38 before so sexton could do it. I don’t judge them for saying this stuff because it’s the kind of thing they need to say and there’s no value in talking him down. I just hope they’re not taking it too seriously.

    If H Byrne, Carbery, Healy all fail to be good enough or injury free for the World Cup, then sexton might be a good option. But only as a last resort. Planning to have a 38 year old out half is to plan for another mediocre World Cup.

    We saw in last year's World Cup (and indeed 6N) the effects of sticking with an older, declining captain. We are still struggling in that position because of the failure to develop alternatives when the incumbent was clearly waning. Surely we can't make the same mistake again?


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    #70
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,545 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    td1 wrote: »
    We saw in last year's World Cup (and indeed 6N) the effects of sticking with an older, declining captain. We are still struggling in that position because of the failure to develop alternatives when the incumbent was clearly waning. Surely we can't make the same mistake again?

    Alternatives are not always there to be developed. Sticking with Best was a calculated risk that the management were fully aware may not work out, but it is not as if any of the hookers played since then have demonstrated there was an obvious alternative. The players available weren't good enough and weren't going to be no matter how much the were "developed".


    The plan won't be to stick with Sexton til 2023, and I would consider it highly unlikely but if it does happen it will be because no one else good enough was available.


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    #71
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,076 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    td1 wrote: »
    We saw in last year's World Cup (and indeed 6N) the effects of sticking with an older, declining captain. We are still struggling in that position because of the failure to develop alternatives when the incumbent was clearly waning. Surely we can't make the same mistake again?

    Are we struggling?? Or are the players simply not that good (yet)

    Carty has got sufficient game time in my opinion to stake a claim for a test level spot but hasnt taken it.

    Ross Byrne has shown that he looks good behind a dominant pack but hasn't the playing skills behind a beaten on.

    Billy burns has looked pretty good in the limited time he's had at test level so far, and is in pole position currently to challenge Sexton for the spot. Unlucky that he's injured this weekend.

    Carbery unfortunately is crocked.... But not for want of development time.

    Harry Byrne and Ben healy are both getting great game time at provincial level, with healy hopefully going to get challenged at euro level soon. H Byrne has been in a few Ireland training camps so far which is a good sign for the young man's progress.
    He needs to take over from his brother at leinster though before being a realistic test squad option.

    So at the moment we have the senior out half of every province either having had a shot, or getting development time at test level. We also have sextons understudy having gotten decent games time to assess, and we have sextons no. 3 involved with the squad as well.

    All this with the hamstring of the time put into paddy Jackson development as well.

    So again, are we struggling to develop these players or are the players simply not that good (yet)


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    #72
    Wegians89
    Registered Users Posts: 3,446 ✭✭✭Wegians89


    Think 10 will be a battle between sexton, Harry bryne and Healy. I’d hope that frawley (12), carbery and Lowry (both at 15) are given opportunities, who ever is at 10, I think there needs to be another play maker in the back line


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    #73
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,004 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Alternatives are not always there to be developed. Sticking with Best was a calculated risk that the management were fully aware may not work out, but it is not as if any of the hookers played since then have demonstrated there was an obvious alternative. The players available weren't good enough and weren't going to be no matter how much the were "developed".


    The plan won't be to stick with Sexton til 2023, and I would consider it highly unlikely but if it does happen it will be because no one else good enough was available.

    Herring was about as good then as he is now and both were probably better than Best. Hey we’re blinded by the fact that Best was captain so they played him regardless. Plus “what he brings to the dressing room”, which is an excuse for playing a player who should be dropped and something I hope I never hear again.

    Someone like sexton is like an old shirt in the wardrobe that you know you’ll never wear against but you’re reluctant to throw it out. He was so heavily involved with brilliant days for Ireland and I think there’s a clear path to playing him in the next World Cup. A combination of sexton being such a big personality and having lots of influence and lack of a clear option to push him aside and grab the jersey.

    If the IRFU believes it’s own rhetoric then it could happen. It’s perfectly possible. Let’s just hope they’re not serious.


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    #74
    Dubinusa
    Registered Users Posts: 8,195 ✭✭✭Dubinusa


    There is a crop of younger lads beginning to come through. Healy and H Byrne are prominent atm. But there's also Crowley and maybe Lowry, if Ulster tried him more at 10. I think Frawley could be an option also, but Leinster are playing him at 12.
    I hope one of these lads pushes on. We are 3 years out, so there's time. Sexton is obviously in the pole position right now. But at his age .... it's also telling that he appears so little for Leinster. I suppose we wouldn't know how HB would go in Europe if he wasn't selected.
    It's a tough situation. HB plays pro14 and is sat for the big matches. So his experience is really only against weaker opposition.
    I think Healy is in a better position. He will get an opportunity in Europe.


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    #75
    Jump_In_Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,645 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    JJ Hanrahan is an odd omission but at 28 years of age he could kick on and be in contention by 2023.


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    #76
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,004 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    Dubinusa wrote: »
    There is a crop of younger lads beginning to come through. Healy and H Byrne are prominent atm. But there's also Crowley and maybe Lowry, if Ulster tried him more at 10. I think Frawley could be an option also, but Leinster are playing him at 12.
    I hope one of these lads pushes on. We are 3 years out, so there's time. Sexton is obviously in the pole position right now. But at his age .... it's also telling that he appears so little for Leinster. I suppose we wouldn't know how HB would go in Europe if he wasn't selected.
    It's a tough situation. HB plays pro14 and is sat for the big matches. So his experience is really only against weaker opposition.
    I think Healy is in a better position. He will get an opportunity in Europe.

    All true. HB usually plays those pro 14 games behind a dominant Leinster pack too. It’s no discredit to him, but he doesn’t have much experience of playing any other way.

    It’s probably easier to find space for kicks in behind the defenders when the defenders are having to mind the front line because Leinster are always a threat in attack. We’ll have to see him play on the defensive


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    #77
    The Lost Sheep
    Registered Users Posts: 14,967 ✭✭✭✭The Lost Sheep


    Jump_In_Jack wrote: »
    JJ Hanrahan is an odd omission but at 28 years of age he could kick on and be in contention by 2023.
    Dont see any chance of that. What evidence of him so far suggests that?
    He hasnt any involvement in irish squads yet and doesnt look like he will any time soon. if he was 23/24 then maybe but not now.


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    #78
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers Posts: 41,076 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    Jump_In_Jack wrote: »
    JJ Hanrahan is an odd omission but at 28 years of age he could kick on and be in contention by 2023.

    nah, at 28 and with the experience he has had, i think hes hit his ceiling.

    a very handy 22 shirt in Europe is about his highest level going forward


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    #79
    Dog Botherer
    Registered Users Posts: 1,641 ✭✭✭Dog Botherer


    sydthebeat wrote: »
    nah, at 28 and with the experience he has had, i think hes hit his ceiling.

    a very handy 22 shirt in Europe is about his highest level going forward

    Hanrahan hit his ceiling about 6 months before he left Munster. He’s never played consistently at anything other than Pro14/Premiership level since.


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    #80
    ersatz
    Registered Users Posts: 1,426 ✭✭✭ersatz


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    Herring was about as good then as he is now and both were probably better than Best. Hey we’re blinded by the fact that Best was captain so they played him regardless. Plus “what he brings to the dressing room”, which is an excuse for playing a player who should be dropped and something I hope I never hear again.

    Someone like sexton is like an old shirt in the wardrobe that you know you’ll never wear against but you’re reluctant to throw it out. He was so heavily involved with brilliant days for Ireland and I think there’s a clear path to playing him in the next World Cup. A combination of sexton being such a big personality and having lots of influence and lack of a clear option to push him aside and grab the jersey.

    If the IRFU believes it’s own rhetoric then it could happen. It’s perfectly possible. Let’s just hope they’re not serious.

    Everyone loves Sexton for what he has done and for his insane personality that makes him such a warrior but any thoughts of his being out half coming into 2023 WC are completely mad. Yes there are a couple of notable back rowers who've continued to play to a great age but it's unprecedented among backs for good reason. Any opposition team will be licking their lips lining up again a geriatric (relatively) 10. It won't happen and the longer any discussion of it being a possibility persists the less experience the next in line will have. Comparisons to Tom Brady (I believe Sexton floated this himself) are akin to comparing horse racing to motor racing.

    RB is journeyman level and not someone we can build a team around to beat 2 or 3 of the best teams in the world in a tournament, Burns showed some potential, will he be much better in a couple of years? Can HB get 15 or 20 caps in the next few years? I've always really liked Carbury but the poor lad has a torrid time with somewhat innocuous injuries, is he the sort of player who can get through a 6N playing every game, never mind a WC? I doubt it. Carty looked only OK in Japan but seems to have fallen out of favour since. Maybe one of the younger lads can make the leap but Farrell better start trying guys out in real tests and figure out who is next because if Sexton remains in situ for the next 3 seasons because the coaches haven't figured out how to replace him WC 23 will be another car crash. Let's remember ROG who was playing pretty well until he wasn't. His decline happened slowly and then very, very fast.


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    #81
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,004 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    ersatz wrote: »
    Everyone loves Sexton for what he has done and for his insane personality that makes him such a warrior but any thoughts of his being out half coming into 2023 WC are completely mad. Yes there are a couple of notable back rowers who've continued to play to a great age but it's unprecedented among backs for good reason. Any opposition team will be licking their lips lining up again a geriatric (relatively) 10. It won't happen and the longer any discussion of it being a possibility persists the less experience the next in line will have. Comparisons to Tom Brady (I believe Sexton floated this himself) are akin to comparing horse racing to motor racing.

    RB is journeyman level and not someone we can build a team around to beat 2 or 3 of the best teams in the world in a tournament, Burns showed some potential, will he be much better in a couple of years? Can HB get 15 or 20 caps in the next few years? I've always really liked Carbury but the poor lad has a torrid time with somewhat innocuous injuries, is he the sort of player who can get through a 6N playing every game, never mind a WC? I doubt it. Carty looked only OK in Japan but seems to have fallen out of favour since. Maybe one of the younger lads can make the leap but Farrell better start trying guys out in real tests and figure out who is next because if Sexton remains in situ for the next 3 seasons because the coaches haven't figured out how to replace him WC 23 will be another car crash. Let's remember ROG who was playing pretty well until he wasn't. His decline happened slowly and then very, very fast.

    I agree that the concern is that they consider him no.1 until the year before the World Cup and then paint themselves into the corner of nobody else having enough experience to take the place from him.

    There’s talk of Ben Healy being offered a contract by Glasgow as he is Scottish qualified by ancestry. So I think they’ll fast track him into the Ireland camp and he might get a cap ahead of H Byrne. Healy will start Munster European games where H Byrne will need to overtake Ross and hope sexton isn’t fit, if he is to get a European game. But Healy will be getting all the European starts if he’s fit.

    It’s not easy to see who takes the jersey from sexton.


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    #82
    TRC10
    Registered Users Posts: 3,895 ✭✭✭TRC10


    Ben Healy to get some starts at European Level over the next few weeks. That should be enough for him to wear 22 during the 6 nations and maybe start v Italy. Then he'll start during the summer tour in the Pacific (Even if sexton isnt with the lions there is no way he should go on that tour). Then with some more big European games under his belt, Ben Healy should be in a position to challenge sexton by november 2021.


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    #83
    bilston
    Registered Users Posts: 17,756 ✭✭✭✭bilston


    TRC10 wrote: »
    Ben Healy to get some starts at European Level over the next few weeks. That should be enough for him to wear 22 during the 6 nations and maybe start v Italy. Then he'll start during the summer tour in the Pacific (Even if sexton isnt with the lions there is no way he should go on that tour). Then with some more big European games under his belt, Ben Healy should be in a position to challenge sexton by november 2021.

    I dont thibk getting some starts at European level will be enough for Healy to get the 22 jersey in the 6Ns. For a start he has to get ahead of Burns and Ross Byrne who are also playing European rugby.

    However it should be enough to put him ahead of Harry Byrne if he is not getting into Leinster's European 23, that might get him into the training squad and then he can build from there. Who knows its not impossible he could make the match day 23...but I'd say it is more likely to be the Pacific Islands tour


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    #84
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,004 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    bilston wrote: »
    I dont thibk getting some starts at European level will be enough for Healy to get the 22 jersey in the 6Ns. For a start he has to get ahead of Burns and Ross Byrne who are also playing European rugby.

    However it should be enough to put him ahead of Harry Byrne if he is not getting into Leinster's European 23, that might get him into the training squad and then he can build from there. Who knows its not impossible he could make the match day 23...but I'd say it is more likely to be the Pacific Islands tour

    Playing European games isn’t necessarily enough to get an Ireland cap but it’s pretty unlikely H Byrne will get a cap without playing some European games.

    I think they should bite the bullet and put H Byrne on the bench for Europe. I think most people both respect Ross for being a sound out half, but also acknowledge he’s not top notch. If he didn’t grow up in the Leinster system, they wouldn’t go out of their way to sign him - they wouldn’t think twice about signing him if he wasn’t already in the system.

    He’s a steady stand in until a better prospect comes along and now that time has come (Harry and Frawley)


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    #85
    ec18
    Registered Users Posts: 2,702 ✭✭✭ec18


    I think it's a bit more complicated just then who replaces sexton at 10. We're seeing the more successful teams having multiple playmakers across the back line.(NZ with mounga and Barrett, SA with pollard and le roux). Really by the next world cup we'll be looking at 10,12,15 at least being stand in out halves. Perfect world it's Carbery at 10 with Frawley at 12 and stockdale at 15. with Harry byrne and ben healy the back ups


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    #86
    Jump_In_Jack
    Registered Users Posts: 3,645 ✭✭✭Jump_In_Jack


    ec18 wrote: »
    I think it's a bit more complicated just then who replaces sexton at 10. We're seeing the more successful teams having multiple playmakers across the back line.(NZ with mounga and Barrett, SA with pollard and le roux). Really by the next world cup we'll be looking at 10,12,15 at least being stand in out halves. Perfect world it's Carbery at 10 with Frawley at 12 and stockdale at 15. with Harry byrne and ben healy the back ups

    England can go further with 10.Ford, 12.Farrell, 13.Slade, 15.Daly.
    I think Ireland need ball players in as many positions as possible, we can afford one or two in a back-line that can't execute kicks, but certainly not all of them.
    We could go for something like, 10.Sexton, 12.Frawley, 13.Ringrose, 15.Lowry.
    That kind of spine through the backline with Stockdale and Lowe on the wings would be interesting.


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    #87
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,506 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    ec18 wrote: »
    I think it's a bit more complicated just then who replaces sexton at 10. We're seeing the more successful teams having multiple playmakers across the back line.(NZ with mounga and Barrett, SA with pollard and le roux). Really by the next world cup we'll be looking at 10,12,15 at least being stand in out halves. Perfect world it's Carbery at 10 with Frawley at 12 and stockdale at 15. with Harry byrne and ben healy the back ups
    Carbery shouldnt be a starting 10 at the next WC


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    #88
    El_Duderino 09
    Registered Users Posts: 20,004 ✭✭✭✭El_Duderino 09


    ELM327 wrote: »
    Carbery shouldnt be a starting 10 at the next WC

    Well, whoever is on the best form at the time should start. And if that’s sexton then so be it. But that would signify a complete failure to develop another 10 and the failure of the other 10s to develop.


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    #89
    ELM327
    Registered Users Posts: 21,506 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    El_Duderino 09 wrote: »
    Well, whoever is on the best form at the time should start. And if that’s sexton then so be it. But that would signify a complete failure to develop another 10 and the failure of the other 10s to develop.
    I would tend to agree. I just dont see any other option as we sit right now.
    Sexton is going to play till he's dropped/ousted from the 10 slot and I dont think we have anyone capable of that.


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    #90
    aloooof
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 10,248 Mod ✭✭✭✭aloooof


    ELM327 wrote: »
    Carbery shouldnt be a starting 10 at the next WC

    Why not?

    If he comes back from injury, has a clear run of form and remains injury free, then I don't see why he shouldn't. They are big if's, but we're 3 years out from the next RWC, there's plenty of time for him to have the opportunity at least. Discounting him right now seems a bit premature.


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    #91
    TRC10
    Registered Users Posts: 3,895 ✭✭✭TRC10


    bilston wrote: »
    I dont thibk getting some starts at European level will be enough for Healy to get the 22 jersey in the 6Ns. For a start he has to get ahead of Burns and Ross Byrne who are also playing European rugby.

    However it should be enough to put him ahead of Harry Byrne if he is not getting into Leinster's European 23, that might get him into the training squad and then he can build from there. Who knows its not impossible he could make the match day 23...but I'd say it is more likely to be the Pacific Islands tour

    At present, I dont think theres a lot between Healy and R.Byrne/Burns. f he plays well on the European stage and Farrell wants to groom him to take over the 10 jersey, I dont see why he couldn't back sexton up after Christmas. We're no more likely to finish above third with Byrne or Burns on the bench, than we are with Healy on the bench. We know that R.Byrne isn't the answer, we know that Burns is the next best alternative but is he the answer? Possibly not. And we know that Healy has bags of potential. Were not going to win the six nations. So why not bring him in.


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