Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

Capt'n Midnight · 24-03-2021 3:12am

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/

Just a reminder that some of the £10Bn includes stuff like Trident and HS2 that wouldn't be relevant in a UI. And the UK would be on the hook for existing pensions, just like a hundred years ago.

The difference between tax revenues in Northern Ireland and direct expenditure was £5.1bn; however when indirect expenditures allocated to Northern Ireland are taken into account, the deficit balloons to over £10bn.
...
€11.3bn if you include all of the allocated expenditures, €5.7bn if you include none of the allocated values, and €7.6bn if you include public sector debt and “other” allocations, but exclude EU expenditures, Defence & international spending, and consumption of fixed capital.

View · 25-03-2021 12:23am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

https://sluggerotoole.com/2018/07/22/would-a-united-ireland-be-affordable/

Just a reminder that some of the £10Bn includes stuff like Trident and HS2 that wouldn't be relevant in a UI. And the UK would be on the hook for existing pensions, just like a hundred years ago.

The deficit is now up to £12billion.

“A hundred years ago” the U.K. was not “on the hook for existing pensions”. The only ones they covered were those for people who had directly worked for the government/state (eg civil servants, police etc). Funding of pensions for everyone else was left to the newly formed government in Dublin.

In addition, the cost of programmes such as Trident are small change in the context of the overall U.K. budget and hence minor additions to the NI expenditure list.

Excluding them, at best that means you are talking about savings of a couple of percent off the total bill for the deficit. That would still leave us having to come up with enough additional funding to cover the NI deficit that it would consume almost half the PAYE tax the state collects here each year (and those taxes currently pay for things like hospitals, schools etc so they aren’t sitting around in a drawer in the Dept of Finance ready to be pulled out of a hat).

Mr.Nice Guy · 25-03-2021 2:13am

View wrote: »

The deficit is now up to £12billion.

“A hundred years ago” the U.K. was not “on the hook for existing pensions”. The only ones they covered were those for people who had directly worked for the government/state (eg civil servants, police etc). Funding of pensions for everyone else was left to the newly formed government in Dublin.

In addition, the cost of programmes such as Trident are small change in the context of the overall U.K. budget and hence minor additions to the NI expenditure list.

Excluding them, at best that means you are talking about savings of a couple of percent off the total bill for the deficit. That would still leave us having to come up with enough additional funding to cover the NI deficit that it would consume almost half the PAYE tax the state collects here each year (and those taxes currently pay for things like hospitals, schools etc so they aren’t sitting around in a drawer in the Dept of Finance ready to be pulled out of a hat).

We'd be talking about more than a couple of percent. I posted a link a week ago to an article in the Irish times from Seamus McGuinness, research professor in the ESRI, and in it he touches on the factors that would need to be taken into account...

In terms of citizens in the Republic, a central concern would be the additional cost of running Northern Ireland under unification. The level of subvention, which refers to the gap between government spending and tax revenue in Northern Ireland, is often focused on as a measure of this cost. Subvention in 2014 was £9.16 billion. However, when items of expenditure not directly related to the running of Northern Ireland are subtracted, for example its contribution to UK defence spending or UK government debt, potential subvention levels could fall by about 25 per cent.

The level falls further when account is taken of UK public-sector pensions and contribution-based old-age pensions, both of which would remain a UK liability following unification. Negotiations on Northern Ireland’s share of UK assets may also impact the figure in the event of unification.

...

Any credible assessment of the cost of unification should incorporate reasonable assumptions around all of these unknown factors under various scenarios. There is little to be achieved through a static analysis of Irish unification whereby the estimated current costs of administering Northern Ireland, which are themselves highly debatable, are simply superimposed on the current tax and welfare systems of the Republic. Such a scenario would never seriously be proposed, or ratified, in any border poll.

Capt'n Midnight · 25-03-2021 2:32am

View wrote: »

The deficit is now up to £12billion.

Link please. The DUP's 30 pieces of silver was a one off and only a tenth of what NI costs in an average year. Pandemic payments are a one off.

In addition, the cost of programmes such as Trident are small change in the context of the overall U.K. budget and hence minor additions to the NI expenditure list.

UK spending on 'defence' is over 2% of GDP
NI's share is about £2Bn. We spend 0.27% on GDP , so €2Bn saved.

HS2 and decommissioning the Calder Hall AKA Sellafield,Windscale,Moorside area will each cost over £100Bn

The biggie is the share of the national debt that the Tories have run up in recent years.

Excluding them, at best that means you are talking about savings of a couple of percent off the total bill for the deficit. That would still leave us having to come up with enough additional funding to cover the NI deficit that it would consume almost half the PAYE tax the state collects here each year (and those taxes currently pay for things like hospitals, schools etc so they aren’t sitting around in a drawer in the Dept of Finance ready to be pulled out of a hat).

A lot more than a few %, and we will get EU funding, increased foreign investment

Most importantly it would be temporary until the NI economy benefits from not having Westminster make all the BIG decisions.

serfboard · 07-04-2021 6:31pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Take the violence in NI for example.

Johnson should be, if he was even the slightest bit interested in reality, out condemning the violence and making it clear that the NIP was agreed by the HoC, voted on in the recent GE and it is not going anywhere.

The violence in NI suits Johnson very nicely.

Think of it like a military strategy - the weakest part of your enemy's (the EU's) flank is the NIP, so if you are going to break your enemy this is where the pressure needs to be applied.

The "why aren't the EU doing something about this?" argument, leading to "the only way to stop the violence in NI, is to scrap the NIP" argument.

I've heard an analysis of Johnson before which I thought was quite good - he keeps doing nothing (which also suits from a laziness perspective), until one by one, alternative options fade away and only one option remains.

As others before him, British PM's will tolerate violence in NI for decades - it doesn't affect them, after all.

There is a saying in politics that you are under no obligation to do anything for those who didn't vote for you. Since nobody in NI voted for Johnson, and his supermajority doesn't need NI votes, then he can, and he will, keep on ignoring what goes on in NI save when it's useful to him.

BlitzKrieg · 08-04-2021 12:01am

Seeing quite a few twitter heads under the Irish sea and Good Friday tags being all regretful over the failure of May's backstop being accepted.

Strange world we live in

redcup342 · 08-04-2021 8:24am

serfboard wrote: »

The violence in NI suits Johnson very nicely.

Think of it like a military strategy - the weakest part of your enemy's (the EU's) flank is the NIP, so if you are going to break your enemy this is where the pressure needs to be applied.

The "why aren't the EU doing something about this?" argument, leading to "the only way to stop the violence in NI, is to scrap the NIP" argument.

I've heard an analysis of Johnson before which I thought was quite good - he keeps doing nothing (which also suits from a laziness perspective), until one by one, alternative options fade away and only one option remains.

As others before him, British PM's will tolerate violence in NI for decades - it doesn't affect them, after all.

There is a saying in politics that you are under no obligation to do anything for those who didn't vote for you. Since nobody in NI voted for Johnson, and his supermajority doesn't need NI votes, then he can, and he will, keep on ignoring what goes on in NI save when it's useful to him.

The only time the English Government ever cared about the Troubles was when it spilled over into Londons streets.

At the moment they'll just let it rage on and escalate further, like you said, until it's at "crisis point"

And Boris will go to the EU with a "We need to do something about this"

It's all a bit sick really.

Akrasia · 08-04-2021 9:14am

redcup342 wrote: »

The only time the English Government ever cared about the Troubles was when it spilled over into Londons streets.

At the moment they'll just let it rage on and escalate further, like you said, until it's at "crisis point"

And Boris will go to the EU with a "We need to do something about this"

It's all a bit sick really.

Yeah, Johnson will stand by while the unionists regroup and reestablish violent militia, then he may then pander to them, force a hard border between EI and Ni and provoke the nationalists to react into an environment where the loyalists are already violently engaged. Or the loyalists may escalate violence south of the ‘border’

He’s setting up a tinder box that could spark aflame another generation of sectarian violence.

Historians will analyze the rise and reign of Boris Johnson and see how he made a career out of turning people against each other, poking hornets nests and starting fires while looking like an eejit with messy hair who used to present ‘Have I got news for you’ to soften people’s perception of his character

The man is almost uniquely shameless in his ability to lie to anyone and everyone to further his own ambitions while also being incredibly short sighted and reactionary. He doesn’t play chess by carefully setting up his opponent to force an error so he can implement his end game, he plays chess against himself, playing both sides of the board, thinking one move at a time but aggressively taking the low hanging fruit, not caring which king remains at the end knowing he can always claim credit for victory

It’s a ploy that only the crassest most egotistical people can pull off because it requires a supreme self confidence and self importance accompanied by a lack of foresight, hindsight and empathy for the many pawns that get destroyed along the way

CelticRambler · 08-04-2021 9:35am

redcup342 wrote: »

The only time the English Government ever cared about the Troubles was when it spilled over into Londons streets.

At the moment they'll just let it rage on and escalate further, like you said, until it's at "crisis point"

And Boris will go to the EU with a "We need to do something about this"

You might be right, and if so it's quite a gamble. Remember the date for ratification of the TCA is coming up soon, and the reason it's been postponed is because Johnson & Co. decided to renege on the promises made regarding the NIP.

If the Loyalists insist that this violence has its origins in the difficulties created by NIP, and Johnson asks for help, then the solution lies (as the EU ambassador said the other day) in the full implementation of the NIP as agreed.

It would be an easy argument to make in the European Parliament that Johnson's behaviour is - and has always been - to create division and foment unrest, then step away and watch from the sidelines. In that context, the TCA is likely to be not worth the paper he signed, and shouldn't be ratified.

Voilà : the "Troubles" come to the Streets of London, and Britain gets to live in the 1970s again.

Leroy42 · 08-04-2021 10:09am

The problem is, and always has been, that the UK has no actually alternative. They continue to complain about the NIP, but never have any possible solution, save for simply ignoring the rules.

People will blame the NIP, Johnson, SF, EU, Ireland etc etc, but at the end of it all this is all down to Brexit. None of this would be happening, not only NI but the fishermen, pensioners in Spain, lack of travel etc, except for Brexit.

ath262 · 08-04-2021 11:08am

Leroy42 wrote: »

The problem is, and always has been, that the UK has no actually alternative. They continue to complain about the NIP, but never have any possible solution, save for simply ignoring the rules.

People will blame the NIP, Johnson, SF, EU, Ireland etc etc, but at the end of it all this is all down to Brexit. None of this would be happening, not only NI but the fishermen, pensioners in Spain, lack of travel etc, except for Brexit.

and most important of all, they are complaining to the wrong people - those responsible in the UK for the NIP & WA are messrs. Johnson & Frost and co. , plus all in Westminster that voted for the deal - apparently without reading anything... and adding to that is Johnson's continual misleading statements suggesting that there would be no paperwork between Britain & NI

CelticRambler · 08-04-2021 11:48am

Hmm. Coordination or coincidence? Last night, Naomi Long of the Alliance Party made a point of saying that it's Johnson's lies that are at the root of the problems perceived by Johnson; and this morning the Shadow NI Secretary Louise Haigh is saying the same thing, and observing that Johnson is doing nothing to directly address the trouble, despite being the supposed custodian and "honest broker" of the GFA. Could it be that Labour has found a fight that it thinks it can win against the Tories?

reslfj · 08-04-2021 12:36pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

...
Could it be that Labour has found a fight that it thinks it can win against the Tories?

Being outside the UK and Ireland I am under the impression that when it comes to any question of NI, a very large number of voters in England will have all focus on their English nationalism and their own "bread and butter" and little or non on the island of Ireland.

Lars

Gael23 · 08-04-2021 1:12pm

Arlene looked a bit shook on the news. Does she have a dose of the virus!

Lemming · 08-04-2021 1:16pm

reslfj wrote: »

Being outside the UK and Ireland I am under the impression that when it comes to any question of NI, a very large number of voters in England will have all focus on their English nationalism and their own "bread and butter" and little or non on the island of Ireland.

Lars

You would be right. To a large number of English people, Northern Ireland is still Ireland; it's "over there", "not here", "not the UK" etc. The loyalists are paddies, just like the rest of us are.

Whilst the increasing volatility in NI may give the opposition parties something to light a fire under the Tories, it'd be a very small fire in of itself and just one more item to add to the litany of f*ck ups the Tories have accrued in a short space of time. Where I suspect it would enable the fight to be taken to the Tories directly is if the GFA were to collapse as a consequence, thus earning the ire of the Americans in particular and what that entails for post-Brexit Britain's global outlook from both a trade & political perspective seeing Britain isolated and ignored.

The only other situation where I could see the NI situation building up enough head of steam to act against the Tories is in relation to Scotlands relationship with the rest of the union and what damaging NI does for optics there.

serfboard · 08-04-2021 2:27pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Arlene looked a bit shook on the news.

Arlene Foster has behaved disgracefully, though unsurprisingly if you look at the history of the DUP.

Like Ian Paisley before her, she turns up the heat on the rhetoric, and then when it boils over, condemns that and simultaneously keeps the heat high.

Not, of course, that the DUP are unique in this regard - the Shinners have done the same in the past many times - but currently, it is the DUP (and the Tories thorugh Brexit) who are to blame for the NI violence.

CelticRambler · 08-04-2021 2:40pm

Lemming wrote: »

Whilst the increasing volatility in NI may give the opposition parties something to light a fire under the Tories, it'd be a very small fire in of itself and just one more item to add to the litany of f*ck ups the Tories have accrued in a short space of time.

...

The only other situation where I could see the NI situation building up enough head of steam to act against the Tories is in relation to Scotlands relationship with the rest of the union and what damaging NI does for optics there.

That's just it, though: what happens in NI is of almost no consequence for Labour they're not going to gain or lose votes there as a result of anything the say or do in Westminster. But they can use NI to symbolise all that Johnson isn't doing for the regions of Britain outside London and the Home Counties.

His hypocrisy and lies in respect of NI are crystal clear, and there are plenty of examples that can be hammered home (no border, no paperwork, no checks, etc); so it would be politically very convenient - and easy - for Labour to associate the Brexit fallout for the other regions (Scotland, Wales, Devon-&-Cornwall to start with) with his mismanagement of NI.

At a time when the pandemic looks like it might have run its course (at least from the point of view of public interest) and the image of the Brexit poster-boy AZ vaccine is being tarnished by commonwealth countries saying "no thanks, Britain" there's nothing like a blazing red bus to use as a metaphor for everything that Johnson claims as a success.

serfboard · 08-04-2021 4:03pm

CelticRambler wrote: »

Naomi Long of the Alliance Party made a point of saying that it's Johnson's lies that are at the root of the problems perceived by Johnson

As always, a straight bat played by Naomi Long. Here's her comments on the Today programme on Radio 4 yesterday, as reported by The Guardian:

The Guardian wrote:

Long attributed the violence to a combination of loyalist protests over police success in cracking down on paramilitary gangs and disquiet she says has been stoked by Westminster leaders’ false rhetoric over Brexit

Colum Eastwood put it even more bluntly:

The Guardian wrote:

[Eastwood] said that Boris Johnson silence on the violence was “galling”. “Loyalist communities, in particular, clearly feel an immense sense of betrayal. The least Johnson can do is address those concerns,” the Foyle MP said adding it was a “defining characteristic” of the prime minister to have caused “maximum chaos and then steps away from the consequences” of the hard Brexit he negotiated.

schmoo2k · 08-04-2021 5:14pm

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

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Gerry T · 08-04-2021 5:20pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

Fog in the channel, Europe cut off from the mainland (UK).

Lemming · 08-04-2021 6:21pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

That's some red, white, and blue washing right there ... revisionism at its gas-lighting finest.

BlitzKrieg · 08-04-2021 9:03pm

Lemming wrote: »

That's some red, white, and blue washing right there ... revisionism at its gas-lighting finest.

oh didnt you hear?

the daily mail says they warned us that this would happen but those remainers were just too stubborn so thats how the UK ended up with such a bad protocal

/s

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1380192932150530049

ancapailldorcha · 08-04-2021 9:42pm

It says a lot about the press here that a representative of one of the biggest papers in this country sees violence and immediately thinks to blame the people who didn't vote to damage a region with a turbulent history.

redcup342 · 09-04-2021 1:51pm

schmoo2k wrote: »

Apparently it is now the "EU's Brexit Deal":

Looks pretty "oven ready" to me

Gael23 · 09-04-2021 3:43pm

Will the death of Prince Philip inflame things more now?

Sam Russell · 09-04-2021 3:49pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Will the death of Prince Philip inflame things more now?

He is being buried not cremated.

Akrasia · 10-04-2021 10:53am

Another night of rioting in NI last night, not that you’d know it from any of the media
12 nights in a row it seems is enough for loyalist sectarian violence to become normalized

Water cannons were used Thursday night, major police operations created a buffer at the flash points but there was still rioting and running battles with the police elsewhere

Things are at a knife edge now, and it could dissipate, or escalate. If anyone on either side gets seriously injured or killed, there could be a cycle of retaliation that drags more and more people into the conflict

The fact that many of the rioters are children is seriously dangerous

Gael23 · 10-04-2021 7:04pm

Sam Russell wrote: »

He is being buried not cremated.

Will Liz be buried also when she pops her clogs?

Sam Russell · 10-04-2021 7:44pm

Gael23 wrote: »

Will Liz be buried also when she pops her clogs?

Well, she could ask her loyal subjects in NI to cool it and not throw petrol bombs at her police officers. Then again, she could have asked them to behave over the last 50 years, but she never did.

Answer to your question - ask her.

Mr.Nice Guy · 20-04-2021 8:32pm

BBC NI have a Spotlight programme at 9pm tonight which will feature, among others, the Taoiseach and Boris Johnson discussing Brexit, the NI protocol, the NI centenary, and a possible border poll.

LucidTalk were commissioned to do a series of polls that will be revealed later. Here's the result of one of them:

https://twitter.com/mandy_mcauley/status/1384570324621172739

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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