Fancies For Today III

Stratford 6.20 MOOD FOR MISCHIEF 40/1 Gen

This 5yr old gelding appears to stay just about 2m on the flat and over hurdles.
Has never won at any distance, but has finished within 5 lengths a couple of
times over the 2m trip on the flat.

In his first 3 outings over hurdles he's been beaten by about 10 lengths twice, and about 15 lengths on his first run, without seeming like a step up in trip would help. All those 3 runs were at about 2 miles - the longest being the extended 2m1f trip which he tackled on his first run over the sticks.

He got a handicap rating after his 3rd hurdles run, but was strangely upped in trip to just a few yards shy of 2 1/2m on his fourth, and most recent hurdles outing about 3wks ago where he was pulled up at about 2 out. He was dropped 5lbs for that run, down now to 99 from 104.

He does seem to have an affinity for good/good to firm going, wears the visor for the first time and perhaps this being a class 5 handicap it just might be his day. I'm hoping the trainer wanted to get him to a rating of no more than 100 to allow him to ply his trade at the basement level lumping a big weight rather than perhaps a lower weight in a class 4. All guesswork, but that's all part of the fun. Maybe he's going for a bigger payday than just the £2,794 stg on offer for the winner's purse.

The prices he has gone off at on those 4 hurdles trips were 66/1 twice, 20/1 and 50/1 respectively in order from 1st to 4th run. I'm thinking his light has been hidden under a bushel purposely by his trainer J A Bennett who doesn't get many winners.

Am no expert but I presume that it's an 'easy' 2m at Stratford (2m 70yds the exact distance here), and it's his 5th hurdles run at a fifth different track. The detective in me thinks summit could be afoot.

The price does seem a tad generous and I'm hoping he's primed for a good run.
Good enough for an e/w bet all things considered.

Gluck punting boardsies if ye're bettin today.

Widdensushi wrote: »

Out to 66/1 on pp now

I'm keeping the faith, the logic was stellar :pac:. As long as the horse doesn't know his price it's all systems go.

Luck's after weighing in.. He's not putting anyone off anything 'at a price' - punter's pal Nick.. Wonder does he know? :P:P:P:P:P:P

His mate though :cool:

Deleted User wrote: »

An early pick for tomorrow

Newmarket 5.40 QULOOB 10/1 WH (no others offering odds yet)

Just the 6 go to post, and many like to make the running/frontrun.
This will allow Quloob to stay at the back of the pack, instead of having to race prominently himself,
or staying close to the pace/mid-div, if it was a big field.

Coltrane deserves to be favourite, as he won well last time; but that was in a class 5 over 2 furlongs shorter.
Up into a class 3 now, where it won't be as easy - still, he's only had the three runs, and is still an entire.

Only Willy Hills have it priced up thus far; where Coltrane is 6/5 and the selection QULOOB is 10s. Perhaps he'll
be offered at bigger odds when the market takes a shape. Still - 10/1 is fair enough.

Quloob wears blinkers for the first time and Rhys Clutterbuck takes off a valuable 7, as the horse has to carry the
topweight of 10 stone.

Would be a welcome tonic for Gary Moore, having fallen afoul of "restrictions" and "requirements" getting fined for
some rubbish violation - fine was £750, which is not to be sniffed at, but he mustn't have done much wrong, or it
probably would have been a lot more!

Anyway, the plan at the minute is to back QULOOB to win, and a reverse forecast with jolly.

High wells, from the Graeme McPherson stable is currently 2nd favourite at 10/3 with the aforementioned Hillls, but I don't like
him, so a place lay perhaps, if there's only 2 on offer with the "machines", for online punters.

Gluck to all regular and Saturday punters

Am going to count myself unlucky there. Not because selection finished 2nd - favourite was well deserved winner - but because they were both backed:
winner, from around evs into 8/15 or thereabouts; and Quloob from 10s or so this morning into 13/2. Thereby making any potential forecast returns a lot shorter than one might have expected.

Forecast only paid about £4.40, so I didn't even cover the total outlay - almost broke even, but not quite. Still, tis nice to be close enough on the predicting anyway..

A poor day today.

Am confident of hitting back in the very first race tomorrow
I'm gonna go for 2 in it, and a place lay selection for anyone who's interested.

1.15 Southwell ALEXANDER THE GREY 11/2 Gen

Price is a bit shorter than hoped, but should be there or thereabouts on recent form. This one likes to frontrun, or race prominently, but so do a lot of horses in this race. I think he needs holding up in a race like this, so hopefully the jockey LM Pinchin (who has won on him before) can keep him in the first 4 or 5, and still give a good account.

Also, in the same race:

THOMAS SHELBY 9/2 - 5/1 Gen

Ran a good race last time in what appeared to be a good race for the grade, to come a respectable 2nd to a short-priced, and well backed favourite. Was well clear of the 2nd favourite. I think of the 2 selections this one is the more likely one. Again, the price is not what I would like it to be, but c'est la vie.

The Place lay proposition

The fav: ROBYNDZONE 13/8 Gen some 7/4 about are the win odds on offer.

Solely because this one is so short for win purposes I'm putting this one up. It is only 6, and has only had the 3 runs over the larger obstacles, but the chase he won last time was in a moderate contest, with a poor time.

The chase race he won before that was on soft. The ground should be good to firm tomorrow with the weather they're having in England atm. The description is currently good.

Also, not that it makes a huge difference, as they are 2 different spheres, but this FM O'Brien inmate didn't pull up too many trees in his 7 or so hurdles outings. Enough ammunition for the layer, and at a guess I'd say he's in the region of 1.4 to place, so that transfers to about 5/2 odds of reward.

I'm hoping he'll find the competition too hot, and fade out of contention to finish down the field.

So the bets
ALEXANDER THE GREY Each way on him
THOMAS SHELBY Each way also

ROBYNDZONE: LAY for a PLACE

I will more than likely back my opinion and do the first 2, but as far as the lay proposition goes I will be unable too - just for full disclosure here - as I don't have any accounts of that nature, nor any online accounts whatsoever.

Best of luck to the Monday punters :pac:

2 with a chance at Chester

5.30 Chester FINOAH 16/1 Gen
&
REPUTATION 11/1 Paddy & Boyle, bit bigger elsewhere.

A strange enough trip this on a strange course. Both these horses have some form there. An open race where anything can win.

Worth a smallish win bet on each.

Just a watching brief for me though.

Gluck all

5.25 Kempton ELSIE VIOLET 14/1 Gen

Going with this 4yr old filly who's in the care of Robert Eddery in this basement grade class 6 Handicap for amateur jockeys.

12f is the trip, and this one has acquitted herself okay once at the distance in June of last year, when coming 2nd at Lingfield on turf.

Does most of her running at about 10fs where, unfortunately, she normally either tries to make all, or set sail for home early on, and fades.

Not the kind of form that bodes well for an extra 2fs, but there are a lot of horses here who have that same style.

Drawn in stall 10, I'm hoping the jockey George Eddery (perhaps the trainer's son) will be able to keep her towards the back of the field while the others go off a mad clip. If he can manage to do this I think the horse has every chance
of making the frame.

A lot of hoping and guesswork, but there's one more reason why this one made me give it a better look. The trainer, jockey, and owner had one declared to run yesterday at Lingfield in another amateur race. It was vying for favouritism, but ended up a non-runner. The detective in me thinks that that one would have ran a good race, thus drawing attention to a similar combo; namely, the selection.

All purely speculative mind, but in an open egg and spoon race, with poor to moderate jockeys and horses; this sort of conveyance, at the price available makes it worth an each way bet.

Gluck all

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Dark Defender in the 3.10 at 14/1 is a decent ew bet
In a bit of form, and ran well in a grade 3 last time out, in a grade 4 here, and field is not strong
He'll try made all here I feel.

Probably end up placing.

His form on soft at Hamilton is poor enough though. A place would be a nice result. Good luck.

Chancer3001 wrote: »

Jamil in the 5 50

Some money for it too