UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING

eagle eye · 09-07-2020 9:51am

He has to lose 20 pounds in a week, no camp. No chance he has the fitness to last five rounds.

mailburner · 09-07-2020 8:48pm

Homelander wrote: »

Actually Masvidal does look fairly out of shape. I know it's a huge payday at short notice so can't blame the guy but it would be a shame to see him in there operating way under potential.

I think he's so happy about his payday that he won't be that
bothered about losing....as long as there's more paydays

mailburner · 09-07-2020 8:49pm

eagle eye wrote: »

He has to lose 20 pounds in a week, no camp. No chance he has the fitness to last five rounds.

Almost anyone else I'd agree, he shouldn't be able to but I'll
bet he does :pac:

SlowBlowin · 09-07-2020 9:27pm

I wonder what odds are of Page's arm giving up again ? She is talented, but shes broken the screws in her arm plate twice in the last few years.

Also she seems very preoccupied with life outside MMA/UFC, I wonder if her heart and body are up to a hard fight ?

Mellor · 10-07-2020 12:43am

mailburner wrote: »

Almost anyone else I'd agree, he shouldn't be able to but I'll
bet he does :pac:

Cutting the weight is no more difficult without a camp.
He's only start cutting a week out anyway. So no doubt that he makes 170.

But he won't be 5 round fit. Not in Abu Dhabi climate.

mailburner · 10-07-2020 2:48pm

mailburner wrote: »

would usman volkan at evens be a better shout? only a few pricing yet so maybe there'll be slightly better odds available.

Usman on the drift, double as big as 2.18 now so hoping for 5/4 by tomorrow evening

Tilikum17 · 10-07-2020 10:03pm

I did usman, Max & Aldo

Chancing me arm.

Would return €300

joeguevara · 11-07-2020 7:25am

Most of the regular people who post regularly here have infinitely more knowledge about ufc than me. Also when I am watching it I literally can't score the fights, (but I think that is a common thing).

But I do follow every single thing religiously and I have to say that anyone who thinks that masvidal has not had a full camp is wrong. He has been training for Usman probably longer than Usman has had a full camp. He was sparring poirier and had the best grappling camp I have seen. The vlog I have been watching blew me away and it is confusing to read people say that it he is il prepared.

I reckon he will win, not easy but by a stoppage but I could be talking out my a55. Honestly I did think poirier was going to be whipped two weeks ago.

Brussels Sprout · 11-07-2020 2:51pm

I read somewhere that the vast majority of bets are on Masvidal (90% volume on one site) but that the biggest bets are going on Usman.

tinpib · 11-07-2020 3:13pm

My usual value bets [all prices B365]:

Max looked so, so good for so long I think there is definitely value there at 2.8, but I'm a greedy pig so went with points at 4.33

I thought Aldo was value but didn't realise he had so many recent losses, so skipped it. I always thought Yan seemed over rated but I remember he did look very good last time out so went for him.

Have got caught out backing the heaviest women's fav of the night before, although Paige has been outclassed recently I think 6.5 is worth a punt, I was thinking of shopping around and backing her by sub but wasn't a greedy pig here.

Rose seems fragile mentally but I don't think Andrade is any great shakes so Rose by points at 3.0

Vanessa Melo is 3.0 to win, she weighed in 5lbs overweight so a no-brainer value bet to win on points at 4.75.

Davey Grant has more UFC experience than his opponent so took the 2.37

A great card though, really looking forward to it after the horrific weekend off last weekend.

al87987 · 11-07-2020 3:51pm

Saw nothing from Max in that 1st fight that merited a rematch or that makes me think he can beat Volkanovski, going Volkan by points.

Usman to beat Masvidal on points too for me.

Yan doesn't have many big names on his record, Dodson, Faber and Rivera not really top of the division talent. He's looked good in those fights but Aldo on points is the value bet if he can get out of the blocks quickly.

Surprised Rose is such a heavy fav against Andrade, Andrade has the heaviest hands in the division, beat Rose in their last fight and is always dangerous. Feel too much being put on her quick title loss last time out. Go andrade for the win, cannot do decision enhancer as her power can end fights early.

mailburner · 11-07-2020 8:38pm

Only got 11/10 Usman volkan

I'm far too confident for my own good, chickened out in adding yan given he's not fought a top guy
I still think he'll get it done.

Usman pts
Rose pts
Volkan pts
Yan ko or sub
Trebles/accum

Porthallian · 15-07-2020 1:01pm

Anyone got any bets for tonight?
Not much value, especially in the Main Event.
Rivera vs Stamann very close in the odds and on paper.

Rivera 3 losses in his last 4, albeit to the top 3 BWs Yan, Aljo, Marlon. Also he hasn't fought in a year.
I think Cody outpoints him, so I'm going for the 7/4 Cody decision. There may be better odds elsewhere FWIW.

tinpib · 15-07-2020 8:06pm

Tonight's value for the laugh

Meatball Molly is only 1.95 for decision.

John Philips is 3.75, has lots of experience against an inexperieinced opponent, I get a whiff of classic UFC hype train.

2 UFC debuts at LH with similar records, the outsider at 2.4 is Michalidis who has a lot of early stoppages. Who knows what will happen.

Chris Fishgold missed weight so an automatic bet at 2.25

Diana Balbita by decision is 2.30.

No idea when I will watch this, could even be Saturday morning.

mailburner · 15-07-2020 8:17pm

I think there might be a bit if value in kattar pts at 11/4 (ko 10/11)

Ige is tough

Tempted by Rivera also

If I got near evens for the kattar Al Hassan double I'd bet on that though

mailburner · 16-07-2020 12:14am

kattar pts 11/4

al hassan
kattar
rivera stamaan to go the distance
6/5

eagle eye · 16-07-2020 12:17am

Shore by sub, Chimaev round 1 double.
Ramos sub, Michalidis by ko/tko/disq.

mailburner · 18-07-2020 1:23am

does anyone think benavidez can win this rematch?
I see on mmajunkie the picks are in favour of benavidez by 11v3 which
I don't understand

I'm finding it very hard to look past the figueirido ko again (6/5)
I mean if joe can somehow get into the championship rounds he has
every chance of tiring out figueir but he hasn't a hope fighting like he did that first fight but fig will no doubt go head hunting so both could be
swinging for the rafters again early on.

I want joe to win so bad I'm tempted not to even bet on this.

I can't call gastelum hermansson but I see either winning on pts, really can't see hermannsson finishing gastelum though.
Kelvin looks in the best shape I've seen for a long time so pts at 3/1
would be my guess but still could be outworked by herm....I don't know..

The fight to go the distance at 20/21 is one I like, thought that might
have been a bit shorter

tempted to have a bet on this though
gastelum hermans to go the distance
The women to go the distance
johns jackson to go the distance
Benavidez NOT to go the distance

aound 5/1

joeguevara · 18-07-2020 8:43pm

What’s the card like tonight in peoples opinion. I reckon figueirdo and gastelum and Askarov for my tips. Absolutely loving the ufc all through the lockdown. Was only thinking during the week if the same results would have been there with the crowds. Noise would surely have caused different fight plans, adrenaline and possibly ref decisions. But fair play to Dana and everyone they have provided some great nights.

tinpib · 18-07-2020 9:33pm

Absolute disaster during the week, thought maybe my bets weren't settled, turned out I had backed nearly all losers.

Anyway, back to tonight's value:

I thought Davi Ramos was value but it turns out I didn't back him :pac:

No possible way I could cheer on an opponent of Ariane Lipski, so have her on pts at 2.4

Brett Johns has lost to high quality opponents Munhoz and Sterling, has 4 victories in UFC so defo worth a squeak at 2.7, I get a whiff of hype train off his opponent.

That's it for the value.

Joseph Duffy seems to be the shortest fav of the night at 1.28 so hopefully no shocker there.

In the big ones I've gone for Gastelum 1.9, cos I like him, and Figueredo 1.45 as I think he will be too good for Benavidez who doesn't have Father Time on his side.

eagle eye · 18-07-2020 11:59pm

Taking Ng a chance on a special which is Benavidez, Hermansson and Fiziev all to win at 14/1.

Only bet I really like tonight is Dolidze round 1 at 3/1.

but1er · 25-07-2020 7:30am

I'll have rhys mckee by ko at 14/1. He might just catch khamzat as he lunges in for takedown

Senor Frog · 25-07-2020 10:59am

Gone for the low risk high reward triple :

370.25/1

Khamzat Chimaev v Rhys McKee - Method of Victory
Rhys McKee by KO/TKO
Darren Till v Robert Whittaker - Method of Victory
Robert Whittaker by KO/TKO
Alexander Gustafsson v Fabricio Werdum - Method of Victory
Fabricio Werdum by Submission

Stake:
€5.00
Potential returns:
€1,856.25

mailburner · 25-07-2020 11:07am

Gadzhimurad Antigulov underdog v paul craig

I'm liking that 11/10

so craig has never won or lost on pts and antigulov has one pts win but never
lost on pts and thats with 42 fights in total combined only 1 has gone the distance.

Antigulov 4ko wins, 15 subs craig 1 ko win, 12 sub yet it's 4/1v5/2 for a sub win which looks value to me (ant has 2 sub losses, craig 1)

Trinaldo is 5/6 now and has been on the drift all week, how good is herbert?
most of his wins have been by ko and Trinaldo has never been ko'd
I'll see if I can find some vid on herbert but it seems like a very big ask on
his ufc debut against a guy who's fought almost everyone.

double pay nearly 3/1

any thoughts on herbert?

Whelo79 · 25-07-2020 1:17pm

mailburner wrote: »

Gadzhimurad Antigulov underdog v paul craig

I'm liking that 11/10

so craig has never won or lost on pts and antigulov has one pts win but never
lost on pts and thats with 42 fights in total combined only 1 has gone the distance.

Antigulov 4ko wins, 15 subs craig 1 ko win, 12 sub yet it's 4/1v5/2 for a sub win which looks value to me (ant has 2 sub losses, craig 1)

Trinaldo is 5/6 now and has been on the drift all week, how good is herbert?
most of his wins have been by ko and Trinaldo has never been ko'd
I'll see if I can find some vid on herbert but it seems like a very big ask on
his ufc debut against a guy who's fought almost everyone.

double pay nearly 3/1

any thoughts on herbert?

I didn't realise Jai Herbert got called up. I've seen a lot of his fights on Cage Warriors and was never blown away. His one loss is a first round KO to Rhys McKee.

mailburner · 25-07-2020 1:31pm

Whelo79 wrote: »

I didn't realise Jai Herbert got called up. I've seen a lot of his fights on Cage Warriors and was never blown away. His one loss is a first round KO to Rhys McKee.

same as that and this alone make me think Trinaldo might be way over priced, no disrespect to mckee either, just a pity this is the fight before mckee

Also having watched the mckee ko I really feel if Trinaldo connects he could be going to sleep, no doubt he'll be quicker starting off but he'll get
caught at some stage possibly

tinpib · 25-07-2020 1:51pm

My value bets of tonight.

I don't know anything about Rhys McKee, his opponent is 1.08, I'm just blind hoping that McKee does well and takes him to pts, Chimeav is 5.5 to win like that.

Bit surprised Carla Esparza is so big at 2.5, to win on pts is 2.87 and I took that even though it's damn all difference.

As pointed out above Paul Craig and his opponent are both submission merchants, so I'm guessing that both will be reluctant to go to ground and thus they could end up standing and trading. Craig unfrt has a glass chin so took his opponent by KO at 5.5

Have a feeling in my bones that Whitaker/Till will be a bit of a boring, cagey fight, both men will be terrified of losing, so took Whitaker on pts at 3.75.

All just my expert opinion, follow at your own risk.

mailburner · 25-07-2020 9:24pm

trinaldo 10/11 now :eek:

I've a feeling after watching this I'll be thinking why didn't I bet more on him...herbert looks quick and cocky so needs to be very careful later

took that, single on Antig also 11/10

antig sub 4/1 trinaldo ko 4/1 singles double

also tiny bet on antig sub rnd 2 trinaldo ko rnd 2 whittaker ko rnd 2 huge odds

mailburner · 25-07-2020 10:20pm

Dalby ko 4/1

pts only 6/5 really like those odds

rogieop · 25-07-2020 11:37pm

Whittaker
Sho gun
Gus

All by ko/tko/dq

20/1

tinpib · 01-08-2020 10:40am

Seems to be a lack of interest in tonight's card judging by B365 and Hills not pricing up 2 of the prelims yet, but PP are. Only 10 fights in total as well.

Hunting for tonight's value there isn't much.

Took standard JoJo by decision at 2.1

Bobby Green and Vanata looks very even, and in fact they fought each other to a draw before. Sided with Green for value as he is 2.3

Munoz/Maness both have great records and both making their UFC debut tonight. Who knows what they are like, could be the next big thing hype train, could both be big fish in a small pond. Sided with Munoz as he is 2.2

The one price that stood out to me was the main event. This looks like it could be a classic hypetrain, skewed-odds fight. Brunson has tons of experience and has really only lost to elite fighters. His opponent is a 22 yr old with 4 from 4 in UFC. Brunson at 3.75 looks a great bet.

mailburner · 01-08-2020 2:57pm

worst card for betting I've seen in a while

The only thing i like is shahbazyan to win and vannata green to go the distance which combined is a little under evens

Shahbazyan is awful short but I think he'll beat Brunson possibly by ko which is a ridiculous 4/7 although I wouldn't blame anyone for backing Brunson at the odds.
Brunson will probably need to avoid trading with this guy and go for take downs.

I like jojo too but 4/6 v 11/10 pts isn't the most appealing

If here was a fotn market I wouldn't be looking past brown v luque

mailburner · 01-08-2020 3:22pm

much as I hate these bookies enhancements I do like this pp one

shahbazyan luque vanatta to win 3/1 next best price is 2.35/1

luque vanatta are close fights though for me

eagle eye · 01-08-2020 8:54pm

I like Durden by sub in the opener. I think this is priced up completely wrong, I think he's the better fighter and people have gone overboard on Gutierrez due to how he won his last fight a couple of weeks ago.
Emmers by ko in the second is another I like, his opponent was only told on Friday that he has a fight.
I like Maness by ko too. Excellent striker against another guy who only got word he's fighting on Friday.
Fancy Holland big to sub Giles, and Luque to sub Brown.
Like Vanatta to ko Green. Last time they met he was robbed despite losing a point for an illegal knee. He floored Green with a punch, he took him down a good few times too. He totally dominated the fight. He's a smart fighter too and I think he'll get it done inside the distance this time.
Calderwood decision looks a sure thing. She must be stuck for cash taking this, giving up a title fight with Shevchenko for it. I presume she'll get the title fight again if she wins this?
Main event I like Sjahbazyan by ko. Brunson is wiley and tough but he leaves himself open too often and I think Shabazyan is an elite striker and he'll finish him when he gets one of those openings.

bmcc10 · 02-08-2020 7:22am

tinpib wrote: »

Seems to be a lack of interest in tonight's card judging by B365 and Hills not pricing up 2 of the prelims yet, but PP are. Only 10 fights in total as well.

Hunting for tonight's value there isn't much.

Took standard JoJo by decision at 2.1

Bobby Green and Vanata looks very even, and in fact they fought each other to a draw before. Sided with Green for value as he is 2.3

Munoz/Maness both have great records and both making their UFC debut tonight. Who knows what they are like, could be the next big thing hype train, could both be big fish in a small pond. Sided with Munoz as he is 2.2

The one price that stood out to me was the main event. This looks like it could be a classic hypetrain, skewed-odds fight. Brunson has tons of experience and has really only lost to elite fighters. His opponent is a 22 yr old with 4 from 4 in UFC. Brunson at 3.75 looks a great bet.

Great shout on Brunson there really is levels to this sport it was similar to Alex Hernandez fighting Cowboy.

tinpib · 02-08-2020 8:25am

bmcc10 wrote: »

Great shout on Brunson there really is levels to this sport it was similar to Alex Hernandez fighting Cowboy.

Cheers, just my opinion of course but as I said hypetrains skewing odds seems to be a regular thing in the markets in UFC. And Ive backed plenty of hypetrains myself in the past! But it's a good way to find value, I only do small stakes for the laugh to have an interest in each fight.

tinpib · 08-08-2020 8:46pm

Took a very quick skim of the card. A few not very big prices for value.

It sorta goes without saying I did Kunitskaya on pts at evens.

Thought Wellington Thurman/Sanchez would be closer so went with Sanchez at 2.2 for value.

I backed Derrick Lewis at 1.5 even though that feels skimpy, the 2.6 on Olenyik looks appealing, you could be forgiven for by sub at a piddly extra 0.4 pts at 3.0

Weidman looked finished but this opponent appears to be levels lower than his last god knows how many opponents, but still assumed he is finished and went for Akmedov at 2.2

Tim Means has bags of experience but a lot of losses but still took the 2.2.

Not terribly confident and didn't put in too much thought, all small stakes for the craic

mailburner · 08-08-2020 9:56pm

couple of small bet taken for value alone

akhmedov pts 9/2 I think it's the only way he beats Weidman and standing I think it'll be even enough

oleinik sub 11/4 He probably only needs to get Lewis down once, maybe twice...may well get beaten to a pulp also

Holtzman pts 15/4 torn between him and dariush pts tbh

singles/treble at 82/1 365

mailburner · 08-08-2020 10:03pm

Paddy power future champion specials...ngannou to be hw champ by jan 2022
at odds of 1/4

Who comes up with these?

Who in their right mind would back this even :pac:

mailburner · 10-08-2020 8:46pm

love the price on jds to beat rozenstruik 13/10

I think it's a great match up for jds similiar to when he fought hunt, lewis etc
Rozen was well behind against reem and had lost the first three rounds and jds will be harder to ko especially over 3
Jds only been finished by the very best in recent years (cain, stipe, reem ngannou and blaydes) really struggling to see why Rozen is favourite here.

I think the odds on jds pts are a bit of value also at 9/2

can't call the main event at all, no idea who comes out on top this time but I'll guess Stipe

bmcc10 · 11-08-2020 2:16am

Cormier and JDS double for me @3.29/1.

mailburner · 15-08-2020 12:13pm

pp enhancing jds O'Malley cormier to 11/2 about a point bigger that the next best

Taking that and the double of cormier ko jds points at over 17/1
And jds ko,/cormier ko 12/1

d00mk1n · 15-08-2020 4:13pm

PP have Suga Sean to lose by sub 8/1

Anyone tempted?

tinpib · 15-08-2020 7:48pm

Today's expertly chosen big priced picks:

Know nothing about Tony Kelley but 2.75 looked big

I was racking my brain why I remembered Ashley Yoder, then I remembered it's because she is gorgeous but a poor fighter. Went for her opponent on pts 2.25

Felice Herrig had improved a few fights ago, she is 35 now, but was still very surprised to see her so big against a girl with 2 UFC fights, who lost a split to Carla Esparza so this isn't the new Cyborg, possible hype train? Felice on pts at 4.5 looks great value.

Jim Miller was always good value for a loss for a while, but he has improved recently and his opponent is 37. Jim has looked good recently so took the evens, it's a close fight.

One of the best big prices of the night is John Dodson, shocked he is so big, he has lost to some elite guys and in one of his recent fights I remember he took a load of dick kicks or eye pokes, don't remember which. His opponent lost his first 2 UFC fights, and hasn't beaten elite fighters since. This guy might be pretty close to a hype train so the 3.3 on Dodson looks brilliant.

Solid logic above on JDS, elite fighter, bags of experience, Jairzinho was blessed to beat Overeem, so 2.0 on JDS looks good.

The potential hype train of the night is without doubt Suga Sean, Chito Vera has tons of experience and has lost to elite fighters. He is a huge step up in opponent for Sean, 3.1 is great and as D00mkin above says something like a sub at 8/1 looks a good value bet.

Both guys in the main event are likeable but I'm backing Stipe, as usual, as he never gets the love from backers, not surprised to see him slight outsider at 2.0. I feel he is consistently under rated and I think he may have figured out DC and hope he gets it done but won't begrudge DC the win.

All small stakes with prices from Hills due to laziness (and the aforementioned small stakes)

SlowBlowin · 15-08-2020 10:21pm

d00mk1n wrote: »

PP have Suga Sean to lose by sub 8/1

Anyone tempted?

Yep, I am looking at best value now, I think if Vera can get his hands on its over... the odds are too good so its going to be my big bet.

Smaller bets on Stipe and JDS.

SlowBlowin · 16-08-2020 6:05am

Lucky that I went for the straight win, worked out well for me tonight...

Mellor · 16-08-2020 6:43am

SlowBlowin wrote: »

Lucky that I went for the straight win, worked out well for me tonight...

Good thing you changed your bet alright :rolleyes:

Some guy put $40k on in Vegas, collected $190k.

tinpib · 22-08-2020 8:14pm

One of the weakest cards I can remember, just the 10 fights too, and all 4 involved in first 2 fights making their UFC debuts.

Hunting for value, OSP is evens, he lost at heavyweight last time but I thought he looked impressive the time before that at his usual light heavy.

Went for Mizuki Inoue to win on pts oddsbooster of 2.25.

However I did find one great value bet. Shana Dobson has one of the worst records I've seen on paper, 3:4 in her career, her opponent Agapova's price reflects this being around 1.06/1.1, however you can have her to win on pts at 4.33 which seems insane value to me.

That's all I've found today.

mailburner · 28-08-2020 9:57pm

smith too big at 9/4?

only 3 months have passed since he was mauled though so who knows
what to expect

Rakic a dark horse in the div but his price seems ridiculous

tinpib · 29-08-2020 3:01pm

Yes, Smith took an awful beating last time but he is not a 40 year old has-been which his price suggests, wouldn't have great faith in him winning but 3.25 is too big.

I've gone for a few fighters that I don't have a huge amount of faith in but their price is too big.

Robbie Lawler for 1, no way should Magny be priced around 1.4, it should be closer than that. Lawler is 3.0

Alexa Grasso seems far too short, so went for her opponent Kim on points at 5.5

Sean Brady has a great record but I just think 1.22 is crazy short, his opponent has had 1 UFC fight and won it, can't do more than that so took the 4.5 (I wouldn't call Sean Brady a hype train just yet)

I remember thinking Ricardo Lamas looked like an old man in his last fight but his opponent has a terrible record, has lost to some average UFC fighters when they were on the regional circuit. Took Lamas at 1.33 but his opponent would be worth a punt at the price of 3.4. Would definitely go against Lamas with an opponent with even a slightly more appealing record.

Usual wealth warning applies, all small stakes for the laugh.

It's great that UFC are filling the calendar with weekly events, no break for ages.

UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

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UFC/MMA Gambling. NO AFTER-TIMING