December 2014 Boards forecast contest

Okay, the four closest on the Dublin max were

Omicron and MTC (0.1 out)
Joe Public and jd (0.2 out)

The five closest on the Dublin min were

Sunflower3 (0.1 out)
rameire (0.3 out)
Harps, Bsal and mickger844posts (0.7 out)

The closest overall by total error was Harps (1.5) followed by Tae laidir at 2.2 then omicron at 2.4 and MTC at 2.6.

I am inclined to agree that "none" is the right answer but will leave that for a day or two to see what if any evidence comes in for Knock which is the only place that likely has any chance of having a report. I think it snowed in Helsinki too.

I can confirm that the IMT was 5.6 C, not sure whether we will see a Monthly Summary tomorrow or not, they usually publish it on the second weekday but with today being a holiday it may be Monday before we see it. If it's not there by 4 p.m. then I will estimate the values and give you some provisional scores. The precip data are up in the monthly data, I just need to calculate the percentages, and then for sunshine we had a more reliable than usual running total and I could estimate what happens from daily data for 29th-31st. We think we know the max and min and the bonus can already be scored.

So look for something from me tomorrow evening then, whether it's final or not depends on their schedule.

Okay, so the final numbers are in -- the tie at the top would have remained in place except that as I open up the annual table I see that the difference was five points and not four (sorry, seasonal distraction is my excuse). This will mean a one point differential in favour of Rikand. Given that there was some uncertainty about the date on the first snowfall bonus and that could give Harps his one point back, I would still say this is more or less a tie at the top, but anyway I'm sure we are all going to offer hearty congrats to both Rikand and Harps for being men (I am guessing) outstanding in their field. Might want to come in before Wednesday though.

Some of the final Met-ie numbers are slightly different as you'll see, but the differentials remained the same for our two joint leaders. This is a good thing from my point of view as both Rikand and Harps had an excellent year and finished off in style.

So these are the actual numbers:

IMT 5.6 C

MAX was 14.0 C on 18th at Moore Park (either we all missed that or it was changed, our leaders both lost five points)

MIN was -6.9 C as we had speculated

PRC 86% (MTC did his sums right there)

SUN ended up at 110% (makes a one point difference for each score)

So I will post the revised monthly scores very soon, then the annual results. Con gained slightly so that's not good news unless you're everybody.

Annual year-ending scoring report through December 2014

Your ranking in the main contest (best ten scores, Boards.ie award) is the last number in the row, your ranking in the secondary contest (total score for the year, MTC award) is the first number in the row. The scores are in the order of the main contest.

Months dropped from your main contest total as low scores are now shown in italics. Those who played eleven months will have one such score and those who played ten use all of those. Monthly high scores are shown in bold. When Con Sensus has that score, the high human forecaster is also shown in bold. Tae laidir had three high scores.

Once again, congrats to Rikand and Harps for a very close finish in the 1-2 positions. Rikand also takes the MTC award for overall highest total. And well done to all who gave this their best effort during the year.


Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D ___ TOTAL __ Best 10/12 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 67 _ 79__844____740 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 53 _ 77__791____689 (1)
02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 71_ 81__737____688 (2)
06 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 55 _ 57__711____651 (3)
05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 69 _ 72__713____643 (4)
03 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 _ 88 __720____641 (5)

08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 66 _ 60__694____628 (6)
07 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 80 _ 60__700____626 (7)
09 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 34 _ 77__690____616 (8)
04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 _ 52__715____615 (9)
10 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 _ 52__689____612 (10)

11 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 _ 77 __666____599 (11)
18 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 _ 80 __596____596 (12)
14 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 48 _ 77 __662____595 (13)
17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 71 _ 63 __638____589 (14)
12 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 _ 73 __664____585 (15)

13 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 71 _ 51 __663____577 (16)
15 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 _ 51 __648____569 (17)
17 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 65 _ 51 __637____566 (18)
20 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 _ 50 __590____554 (19)
18 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 61 _ 71 __596____544 (20)

21 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 52 _ 47 __579____523 (21)
23 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 35 _ 26 _ 63 __351____351 (22)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __375
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __351
25 _The Zohan ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 _ 62 _ 54 _ --- __342

27 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __255
26 _sunflower3______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 _ 67 _ 52 _ 62 __310
28 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __236
29 _homolumo ______ 58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __163
30 _Robxxx7 ________--- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __136

31 _seafields ________40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __123
32 _melanoma ______ 39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55

36 _YouTookMyName_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 48 ___48
37 _octo __________ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___47
38 _rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___46
39 _drdidlittle ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___40
40 _billcarson ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___39
41 _aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- ___28
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