December 2014 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

1. Predict the IMT (deg C) for the five stations used. The most recent (1981-2010) 30-year average is 5.4 C ... before that (1971-2000), 5.7 and before that (1961-90), 5.3.

2. Predict the maximum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

3. Predict the minimum temperature at any Met-IE station (deg C)

4. Predict the precip (rainfall plus liquid equivalent of snow etc) as a percentage of normal values, for eleven stations around Ireland as per the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

5. Predict the sunshine hours as percentage of normal for the stations used in the Monthly Summary (met-IE).

6. Bonus, as usual for December, predict the min and max temperature during the 24-hour calendar day for 25 December at Dublin Airport. A second bonus question (for three possible double-bonus points) asks you to name a location where it may snow on the 25th (in the ROI). If you don't expect any snow on the date just leave this blank or insert "none" or similar. If you do expect snow, take a punt on where, but points will be awarded on the basis of yes or no snow, if nobody has a correct location. If some do, then they will get 3 pts and all incorrect guesses other than "no snow" will get 2/3.

Sorry this thread was posted rather late, as I have been waiting for an updated entry form. That is still not worked out, you can do one of the following things: go to page one of November's contest thread and enter there, you'll find that I have made an entry today designed to give you the right column headings (and my own forecasts) after the last (DOCARCH) November forecast. Anything that appears there will be transferred over to any new form that we manage to get up and running, and I will edit that link into this announcement. Or, note that any entries made in this thread will also be accepted.

This link should take you through to an edited version of the November entry form, and your submitted forecasts should then show up at the end of the November forecasts in the Nov 2014 table. When I get a better link to the right form, I will edit this. But this will give you what you need to enter in the meantime. (note, you may not see your forecast in the table, but I can see them in a log of entries, we will get this sorted out and you'll see all the forecasts together by tomorrow, I hope)

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1BC4I-Ls3Bz5iGhJMzMpQb61miqw8Pmxj_4fPB5SRLAI/viewform?formkey=dElyZTJQeUJzVjdnQ1JBcThYdHpCSEE6MQ

Deadline for entries is the usual 0300h 2nd (Tuesday) with 5 pt incremental penalties per half-day late thereafter. Good luck and let me know in this thread if you have any suggestions for 2015, hoping you all enjoy the contest but always open to improvements.

Bsal

Done.

M.T. Cranium

I think the forms issues were solved overnight by my assistant (somebody has evidently been in the workshop anyway), but you may not instantly see your forecast listed. We can see them and eventually each entry will go into the right form. I can see Bsal's entry and there are no indications of any other entries except for tests by administrators. So don't panic if you enter and can't see your entry, we'll let you know if we need it resubmitted, no penalty.

DOCARCH

Done

omicron

Done

dasa29

Done

John mac

done..

Joe Public

Done

Harps

Done

dacogawa

Done

pauldry

done

rameire

Done

mickger844posts

done

Rikand

Done

Best of luck everyone

Tae laidir

Done.
(Which is more that can be said for Christmas shopping)

delw

done

okla

Done

Jpmarn

Done sorry for being late.

M.T. Cranium

Table of entries December 2014

FORECASTER ____________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ Dublin 25 _ snow

rameire _________________ 6.3 _ 13.2 _ -5.0 _ 120 _ 090 _ 7.9 __ 1.0 _ none
Johnmac ________________ 5.9 _ 15.1 _ -4.1 _ 120 _ 110 _ 7.5 _ -1.5 _ none
Joe Public _______________ 5.9 _ 14.9 _ -5.9 _ 099 _ 120 _ 4.9 _ -2.9 _ none
Jpmarn _____ (-5) ________5.9 _ 12.1 _ -5.9 _ 110 _ 120 _ 4.3 _ -2.1 _ none
pauldry _________________ 5.8 _ 14.7 _ -7.5 _ 089 _ 125 _ 4.0 _ -5.0 _ Knock
Okla ___________________ 5.8 _ 13.8 _ -5.3 _ 110 _ 090 _ 5.6 _ -2.3 _ Malin Hd
kindredspirit _____________ 5.6 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 095 _ 105 _ 9.0 __ 0.0 _ none
waterways _______________5.6 _ 13.9 _ -5.0 _ 092 _ 104 _ 6.8 __ 2.2 _ Helsinki
dasa29 _________________ 5.6 _ 12.0 _ -8.0 _ 110 _ 110 _11.0 _ -3.0 _ Knock
DOCARCH _______________ 5.5 _ 14.2 _ -5.2 _ 095 _ 101 _ 6.8 _ -1.2 _ none
Rikand __________________5.5 _ 13.5 _ -5.5 _ 090 _ 110 _ 8.0 _ -1.0 _ none
Bsal ____________________5.5 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 095 _ 095 _ 9.9 __ 2.0 _ none

Con Sensus ______________ 5.5 _ 13.9 _ -5.5 _ 094 _ 109 _ 6.8 _ -1.6 _ none

Dacogawa _______________ 5.4 _ 14.1 _ -5.5 _ 095 _ 115 _ 6.2 _ -2.3 _ none
200motels _______________5.4 _ 12.5 _ -4.0 _ 069 _ 120 _10.5 __ 3.0 _ none
lostinashford _____________5.2 _ 12.0 _ -4.7 _ 090 _ 107 _ 8.9 _ -2.3 _ none
sunflower3 ______________ 5.1 _ 14.9 _ -4.6 _ 078 _ 108 _10.1 __ 1.2 _ none
mickger844posts _________ 4.9 _ 12.7 _ -5.1 _ 085 _ 115 _10.0 __ 2.0 _ none
Tae laidir ________________4.9 _ 11.7 _ -6.0 _ 105 _ 105 _ 6.5 _ 0.5 _ Ballyhaise
Harps ___________________4.7 _ 13.1 _ -6.9 _ 080 _ 115 _ 5.9 __ 0.6 _ none
jd ______________________4.6 _ 13.8 _ -6.2 _ 092 _ 107 _ 5.3 _ -2.1 _ none
omicron _________________4.5 _ 14.5 _ -6.0 _ 070 _ 120 _ 5.0 _ -1.0 _ none
YouTookMyName __________4.5 _ 14.0 __ 0.3 _ 057 _ 042 _ 4.0 _ -1.2 _ none
delw ___________________ 3.9 _ 14.0 _ -6.0 _ 110 _ 097 _11.0 __ 0.0 _ none
M.T. Cranium ____________ 2.8 _ 14.0 _ -9.5 _ 080 _ 125 _ 5.0 _ -1.2 _ Finner
_______________________________________________

Helsinki will be equivalent to no snow.

Good luck everyone, looks like a very interesting month ahead, raging cold zonality.
YouTookMyName -- please let me know if you were entered previously under that name taken. Late entries will be edited in. This may move consensus slightly.

The consensus indicates a near normal month temperature-wise with a slightly dry and sunny theme, nothing unusual expected around Christmas, only 5 of 24 predict any snow in Ireland on the 25th and most of them chose the northwest, one saying Ballyhaise. Not that these predictions would necessarily exclude other locations. While some have indicated a fairly severe cold spell at some point, nobody seems to feel that it would fall on Christmas Day.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

kindredspirit

I like the Helsinki entry.

YouTookMyName

Yep I entered. But never confirmed in thread. Cheers.

Tae laidir

Sherkin Island 11.6 deg Max yesterday so far December, I think.
Will it be beaten on on Tuesday?

M.T. Cranium

This is how the first week turned out (1-7 Dec) ...

IMT at 4.9 C

PRC at 44% of normal

SUN at 129% of normal

Rikand

stupid IMT - get up get up get up!

Joe Public

IMT will go up ok, Con says

Tae laidir

Tae laidir wrote: »

Sherkin Island 11.6 deg Max yesterday so far December, I think.
Will it be beaten on on Tuesday?

12.3 Oak Park

M.T. Cranium

-3.4 at Athenry appears to be the lowest temp on Saturday 13th.

M.T. Cranium

After two weeks (1-14 Dec) ...

IMT at 4.8 C (second week was 4.7)

PRC at 82% (second week 120%)

SUN at 118% of normal (second week 107%)

Tae laidir

Oak Park 13.5 yesterday may be new max.
Helsinki -12.8 may be new min!

Jpmarn

I am quite excited about the bonus question. Present forecasts for Christmas Day is more or less matching my temperature prediction of max 4.3 Min -2.1.

pauldry

no its going to be -5c

why

coz i said so haha

think the mountains of mayo and donegal will get snow so thats why i think knock has a chance

Happy Christmas to all boardies especially the weatherfolk:)

M.T. Cranium

After the third week, a milder period ...

IMT now at 5.8 C (the week averaged 7.9 C).

PRC has risen to 87% after a week at 96% of average.

SUN has fallen off considerably to exactly normal (100%) after a dull week (64% although Dublin managed 99%, it was the cloudy wesht at fault here).

What's ahead? Probably a slight fall in IMT despite today's high readings, I would estimate 5.0 the finishing mark. PRC could stay around where it is now and SUN could improve slightly with any luck there will be a few sunny days and that's all it takes in dark and dreary December when the average seems to be about 2 hours a day.

I am expecting a minimum of at least -5 and possibly -6 from the current charts. The maximum seems unlikely to be exceeded now. So who will score big? I would say high score candidates at present time looking like omicron and Harps but rikand won't be too far off and so it's going to be very close at the finish. Exciting. Con of course will have about 80 more points, that guy is phenomenal. I would have a pretty nice score if it gets as cold as possible from 24th to 31st, but I need the wildest application of GFS overkill to get there.

Schadenfreudia

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I would have a pretty nice score if it gets as cold as possible from 24th to 31st, but I need the wildest application of GFS overkill to get there.

And by Golly you can take it as read that we all hope get a great score!

M.T. Cranium

IMT peaked at 6.2 C on 23rd and fell back to 6.1 C on 24th, probably 5.9 C today.

From here I would need an average of -12 C to get down to 2.8 C and the projection is about 3 to 4 C, figure on the final value to be maybe 5.3 to 5.5 C.

The Dublin actuals will be known tomorrow but the minimum probably was not reached this morning but will be reached around 11-12 p.m., as I don't think it got below freezing yet, but likely will this evening.

I am not aware of any official reports of snow at weather stations but let me know, it probably just snowed in a few higher parts of Donegal and Mayo.

John mac

didn't see any on the usual mountains in mayo ..

Tae laidir

Dublin Airport Max 5.1 and Min 1.3.
Smaller spread than predicted by most.
As for snow, the best that could be said is 'almost'.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, the four closest on the Dublin max were

Omicron and MTC (0.1 out)
Joe Public and jd (0.2 out)

The five closest on the Dublin min were

Sunflower3 (0.1 out)
rameire (0.3 out)
Harps, Bsal and mickger844posts (0.7 out)

The closest overall by total error was Harps (1.5) followed by Tae laidir at 2.2 then omicron at 2.4 and MTC at 2.6.

I am inclined to agree that "none" is the right answer but will leave that for a day or two to see what if any evidence comes in for Knock which is the only place that likely has any chance of having a report. I think it snowed in Helsinki too.

DOCARCH

I see ME tweeted that Mulligar got to -6.9c this morning.

Rikand

DOCARCH wrote: »

I see ME tweeted that Mulligar got to -6.9c this morning.

If thats the case then I'd like to concede the competition to harps spot on for the minimum

M.T. Cranium

After four weeks then, and with yesterday's sub-zero average included but not today's yet ...

IMT was on 5.6 C (will be 5.4 now)

PRC was 90% after a very normal week at 99%

SUN has increased its tally to 105% with a brighter week (119%).

Harps

Rikand wrote: »

If thats the case then I'd like to concede the competition to harps spot on for the minimum

Your IMT, max temp, precip & sun all look fairly accurate though so it's going to be a close run, I'm not going to pretend I know how the scoring works so we'll have to wait tentatively for the final breakdown!

M.T. Cranium

As you say, it is going to be a very close finish in the main contest, Rikand has the MTC division in the bag as Harps missed one month. But in the main (Boards) contest where it's best ten scores, the differential going in was 4 in favour of Rikand. Bsal and omicron were lurking also but I think their forecasts are not different enough to produce any result where they can move ahead.

There is even a chance of a tie between Rikand and Harps from what I can estimate. But here's how the scoring works.

IMT is scored out of 25 and you lose one point for every 0.1 C error. At this point if we finish on 5.5 Rikand gains 8 points. Every 0.1 above 5.5 makes no difference to that, every 0.1 below is a two point gain for Harps in relative terms.

MAX and MIN are scored out of 20 and again you lose one point per 0.1 C error. There is a minimum progression rule that can broaden out those intervals but I can't see it coming into play this month. On the MAX Rikand gains four more points, and on the MIN Harps makes back 14 points, the net so far including the 4 that Rikand had going into this part of the scoring is 2 points for Rikand at 5.5 IMT, a tie at 5.4 and 2 points for Harps at 5.3 (these are the only likely finishing numbers).

Follow me? I thought not. Anyway, for precip, the points (15) are determined by your error in percentage divided by three. Rikand is at 90% and Harps at 80% and the latest estimate was closer to Harps but there can't be much differential here especially if reality falls in between. Sunshine is scored at 10 points minus errors divided by 5. Rikand at 110%, Harps at 115% can only be separated by one point there and by zero if reality is either 112 or 113 as appears possible.

That leaves us very close to a dead heat, the bonus will provide Harps with about four more points than Rikand.

There is enough uncertainty here to say that this cannot be decided until Friday when I have all the data available, and I think most of us would agree that a very close result is like a tie anyway, and the various close contenders have done very well also. Then there's the matter of Con and the meetings I have scheduled with Met-E to get him/her/it into operational forecasting.

M.T. Cranium

I can confirm that the IMT was 5.6 C, not sure whether we will see a Monthly Summary tomorrow or not, they usually publish it on the second weekday but with today being a holiday it may be Monday before we see it. If it's not there by 4 p.m. then I will estimate the values and give you some provisional scores. The precip data are up in the monthly data, I just need to calculate the percentages, and then for sunshine we had a more reliable than usual running total and I could estimate what happens from daily data for 29th-31st. We think we know the max and min and the bonus can already be scored.

So look for something from me tomorrow evening then, whether it's final or not depends on their schedule.

Joe Public

When you are doing up the scores make sure you give Con loads of penalty points because the fecker is always last in.

rameire

dont forget 2015 weather contest people

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057351747

M.T. Cranium

Well, as suspected, no Monthly Summary yet. So I have calculated the precip myself and looked up the daily sunshine 29th-31st to augment the estimates already made. So far these are the numbers I have estimated or confirmed:

IMT 5.6 C

MAX 13.5 C (Oak Park 18th and Shannon 31st)

MIN -6.9 C (Mullingar 29th)

PRC 86%

SUN 105% (the fragment from last three days calculates to about 105% so unchanged from 28th)

You never know if there will be surprises in the MS but on those numbers, here are the scores that I can estimate at this point. Will leave the annual tabulation until Monday or whenever I get these confirmed.

Provisional scoring December 2014


FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Dublin25_snow__ TOTALS

Harps ___________________16 _ 16 _ 20 _ 13 _ 08 _ 4 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 85
kindredspirit _____________ 25 _ 15 _ 14*_ 12 _ 10 _ 1 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 84
Rikand __________________24 _ 20 _ 06 _ 14 _ 09 _ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 81
jd ______________________15 _ 17 _ 15*_ 13 _ 10 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 80
waterways _______________25 _ 16 _ 01 _ 13 _ 10 _ 3 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 75

Con Sensus ______________ 24 _ 16 _ 06 _ 12 _ 09 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 75

Dacogawa _______________ 23 _ 14 _ 06 _ 12 _ 08 _ 4 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 71
pauldry _________________ 23 _ 08 _ 16*_ 14 _ 06 _ 4 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 71
DOCARCH _______________ 24 _ 13 _ 03 _ 12 _ 09 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 69
omicron _________________14 _ 10 _ 14*_ 10 _ 07 _ 5 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 66
Joe Public _______________ 22 _ 06 _ 10 _ 11 _ 07 _ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 65
mickger844posts _________ 18 _ 12 _ 02 _ 15 _ 08 _ 1 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 64
Bsal ____________________24 _ 10 _ 00 _ 12 _ 08 _ 1 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 63
Tae laidir ________________18 _ 02 _ 14*_ 11 _ 10 _ 3 _ 5 _ 0 _______ 63
Okla ____________________23 _ 17 _ 04 _ 07 _ 07 _ 4 _ 1 _ 0 _______ 63
delw ____________________08 _ 15 _ 14*_ 07_ 08 _ 0 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 59
rameire _________________18 _ 17 _ 01 _ 04 _ 07 _ 2 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 57
Jpmarn _____ (-5) ________22 _ 06 _ 10 _ 07 _ 07 _ 4 _ 2 _ 3 __ 61-5=56
lostinashford _____________21 _ 05 _ 00 _ 14 _ 10 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 56
sunflower3 ______________ 20 _ 06 _ 00 _ 12 _ 09 _ 1 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 56
200motels _______________23 _ 10 _ 00 _ 09 _ 07 _ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 55
dasa29 _________________ 25 _ 05 _ 09 _ 07 _ 09 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 55
Johnmac ________________ 22 _ 04 _ 00 _ 04 _ 09 _ 2 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 46
YouTookMyName __________14 _ 15 _ 00 _ 05 _ 00 _ 4 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 43
M.T. Cranium _____________00 _ 15 _ 00 _ 13 _ 06 _ 5 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 41
_______________________________________________

* some scores in MIN were adjusted up by 2-3 pts to conform to minimum progression rule.

A generally high scoring month that won't hurt anybody's rankings, I would think. Granted that the total score you could make is 103 rather than 100 this month with the snowfall bonus. The temperature bonus scores are calculated independently for your MAX and MIN forecasts for Dublin and fall into equal groups with a slight smoothing applied to preserve clusters. Speaking of clusters, my IMT and MIN forecasts ...

Well, if my estimates are correct (or very close) then we would have a tie for the Boards.ie award given to Rikand and Harps. I am hoping that the numbers won't result in a one point separation but it is what it is and within about five points it can be seen as more or less of a tie anyway, I would think. Meanwhile Rikand has easily clinched the total score (MTC) award category.

So we will revisit this on Monday after the MS is published and I can confirm my estimates.

Jan 2015 thread is open and the late penalties are relaxed due to New Years and my rather late posting of the thread. I think it is only five points to mid-day Saturday.

Rikand

it's monday!

omicron

Rikand wrote: »

it's monday!

Warmest year in 7 years.

M.T. Cranium

Okay, so the final numbers are in -- the tie at the top would have remained in place except that as I open up the annual table I see that the difference was five points and not four (sorry, seasonal distraction is my excuse). This will mean a one point differential in favour of Rikand. Given that there was some uncertainty about the date on the first snowfall bonus and that could give Harps his one point back, I would still say this is more or less a tie at the top, but anyway I'm sure we are all going to offer hearty congrats to both Rikand and Harps for being men (I am guessing) outstanding in their field. Might want to come in before Wednesday though.

Some of the final Met-ie numbers are slightly different as you'll see, but the differentials remained the same for our two joint leaders. This is a good thing from my point of view as both Rikand and Harps had an excellent year and finished off in style.

So these are the actual numbers:

IMT 5.6 C

MAX was 14.0 C on 18th at Moore Park (either we all missed that or it was changed, our leaders both lost five points)

MIN was -6.9 C as we had speculated

PRC 86% (MTC did his sums right there)

SUN ended up at 110% (makes a one point difference for each score)

So I will post the revised monthly scores very soon, then the annual results. Con gained slightly so that's not good news unless you're everybody.

M.T. Cranium

Final scoring December 2014


FORECASTER ____________ IMT_MAX_MIN_PRC_SUN_Dublin25_snow__ TOTALS

kindredspirit _____________ 25 _ 20 _ 14*_ 12 _ 09 _ 1 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 88
Harps ___________________16 _ 11 _ 20 _ 13 _ 09 _ 4 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 81
jd ______________________15 _ 18 _ 15*_ 13 _ 09 _ 5 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 80

Con Sensus ______________ 24 _ 19 _ 06 _ 12 _ 10 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 79

Rikand __________________24 _ 15 _ 06 _ 14 _ 10 _ 2 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 77
waterways _______________25 _ 19 _ 01 _ 13 _ 09 _ 3 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 77
Dacogawa _______________ 23 _ 19 _ 06 _ 12 _ 09 _ 4 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 77
pauldry _________________ 23 _ 13 _ 16*_ 14 _ 07 _ 4 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 77
DOCARCH _______________ 24 _ 18 _ 03 _ 12 _ 08 _ 3 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 73
omicron _________________14 _ 15 _ 14*_ 10 _ 08 _ 5 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 72
Joe Public _______________ 22 _ 11 _ 10 _ 11 _ 08 _ 5 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 71
Okla ____________________23 _ 18 _ 04 _ 07 _ 06 _ 4 _ 1 _ 0 _______ 63
delw ____________________08 _ 20 _ 14*_ 07_ 07 _ 0 _ 4 _ 3 _______ 63
sunflower3 ______________ 20 _ 11 _ 00 _ 12 _ 10 _ 1 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 62
mickger844posts _________ 18 _ 07 _ 02 _ 15 _ 09 _ 1 _ 5 _ 3 ________60
Tae laidir ________________18 _ 00 _ 14*_ 11 _ 09 _ 3 _ 5 _ 0 _______60
Bsal ____________________24 _ 05 _ 00 _ 12 _ 07 _ 1 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 57
Jpmarn _____ (-5) ________22 _ 01 _ 10 _ 07 _ 08 _ 4 _ 2 _ 3 __ 57-5=52
Johnmac ________________ 22 _ 09 _ 00 _ 04 _ 10 _ 2 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 52
rameire _________________18 _ 12 _ 01 _ 04 _ 06 _ 2 _ 5 _ 3 _______ 51
200motels _______________23 _ 05 _ 00 _ 09 _ 08 _ 0 _ 3 _ 3 _______ 51
dasa29 _________________ 25 _ 00 _ 09 _ 07 _ 10 _ 0 _ 0 _ 0 _______ 51
lostinashford _____________21 _ 00 _ 00 _ 14 _ 09 _ 2 _ 1 _ 3 _______ 50
YouTookMyName __________14 _ 20 _ 00 _ 05 _ 00 _ 4 _ 2 _ 3 _______ 48
M.T. Cranium _____________00 _ 20 _ 00 _ 13 _ 07 _ 5 _ 2 _ 0 _______ 47
_______________________________________________

* some scores in MIN were adjusted up by 2-3 pts to conform to minimum progression rule.

A little shuffling of the deck as points could change either way by a maximum of six, in some cases they stayed about the same (if you predicted 13.7 or 13.8 as a MIN you would only change by one point on that). This now leaves kindredspirit as the monthly winner at 88, one of the highest scores this year (will check that in the annual tables which is where I am now heading). Look for the annual scoring report and find out your ranking and all the trivia in about an hour or so.

M.T. Cranium

Annual year-ending scoring report through December 2014

Your ranking in the main contest (best ten scores, Boards.ie award) is the last number in the row, your ranking in the secondary contest (total score for the year, MTC award) is the first number in the row. The scores are in the order of the main contest.

Months dropped from your main contest total as low scores are now shown in italics. Those who played eleven months will have one such score and those who played ten use all of those. Monthly high scores are shown in bold. When Con Sensus has that score, the high human forecaster is also shown in bold. Tae laidir had three high scores.

Once again, congrats to Rikand and Harps for a very close finish in the 1-2 positions. Rikand also takes the MTC award for overall highest total. And well done to all who gave this their best effort during the year.


Rank _ Forecaster ____ J __ F __ M __ A __ M __ J __ J __ A __ S __ O __ N __ D ___ TOTAL __ Best 10/12 (rank)

01 _Con Sensus _____ 64 _ 71 _ 92 _ 83 _ 66 _ 58 _ 70 _ 46 _ 73 _ 75 _ 67 _ 79__844____740 (1)

01 _rikand __________68 _ 65 _ 84 _ 78 _ 51 _ 69 _ 75 _ 51 _ 55 _ 65 _ 53 _ 77__791____689 (1)
02 _harps __________ 57 _ 63 _ 71 _ 74 _ 66 _ 72 _ 65 _ 68 _ --- _ 49 _ 71_ 81__737____688 (2)
06 _Bsal ___________ 74 _ 75 _ 73 _ 60 _ 61 _ 34 _ 60 _ 60 _ 26 _ 76 _ 55 _ 57__711____651 (3)
05 _omicron ________ 70 _ 56 _ 85 _ 68 _ 41 _ 49 _ 40 _ 30 _ 71 _ 62 _ 69 _ 72__713____643 (4)
03 _kindredspirit _____67 _ 49 _ 69 _ 68 _ 52 _ 60 _ 69 _ 47 _ 38 _ 72 _ 41 _ 88 __720____641 (5)

08 _mickger844posts _ 69 _ 53 _ 56 _ 64 _ 54 _ 41 _ 60 _ 25 _ 69 _ 77 _ 66 _ 60__694____628 (6)
07 _Tae laidir _______ 46 _ 85 _ 38 _ 63 _ 76 _ 62 _ 51 _ 57 _ 36 _ 46 _ 80 _ 60__700____626 (7)
09 _pauldry _________62 _ 69 _ 50 _ 69 _ 63 _ 40 _ 55 _ 66 _ 58 _ 47 _ 34 _ 77__690____616 (8)
04 _John mac _______ 67 _ 53 _ 61 _ 50 _ 50 _ 60 _ 64 _ 52 _ 69 _ 62 _ 75 _ 52__715____615 (9)
10 _jpmarn _________61 _ 45 _ 60 _ 72 _ 74 _ 47 _ 43 _ 34 _ 68 _ 76 _ 57 _ 52__689____612 (10)

11 _dacogawa ______ 52 _ 53 _ 66 _ 61 _ 32 _ 43 _ 48 _ 55 _ 35 _ 72 _ 72 _ 77 __666____599 (11)
18 _jd _____________ 60 _ 58 _ 55 _ 75 _ ---_ --- _ 67 _ 31 _ 69 _ 51 _ 50 _ 80 __596____596 (12)
14 _waterways ______ 60 _ 74 _ 70 _ 40 _ 38 _ 75 _ 37 _ 30 _ 63 _ 50 _ 48 _ 77 __662____595 (13)
17 _okla ___________ 59 _ --- _ 61 _ 49 _ 59 _ 54 _ 53 _ 56 _ 57 _ 56 _ 71 _ 63 __638____589 (14)
12 _DOCARCH _______54 _ 47 _ 59 _ 79 _ 38 _ 54 _ 68 _ 43 _ 51 _ 57 _ 41 _ 73 __664____585 (15)

13 _rameire ________ 54 _ 72 _ 51 _ 49 _ 41 _ 56 _ 46 _ 45 _ 62 _ 65 _ 71 _ 51 __663____577 (16)
15 _dasa 29 ________ 61 _ 59 _ 60 _ 40 _ 57 _ 56 _ 56 _ 39 _ 49 _ 65 _ 55 _ 51 __648____569 (17)
17 _200 motels ______50 _ 71 _ 62 _ 51 _ 39 _ 47 _ 38 _ 33 _ 59 _ 71 _ 65 _ 51 __637____566 (18)
20 _lostinashford_____--- _ 51 _ 79 _ 45 _ 45 _ 65 _ 62 _ 36 _ 57 _ 59 _ 41 _ 50 __590____554 (19)
18 _Joe Public ______ 60 _ 58 _ 50 _ 44 _ 10 _ 42 _ 52 _ 45 _ 58 _ 45 _ 61 _ 71 __596____544 (20)

21 _M.T. Cranium ____63 _ 62 _ 58 _ 56 _ 26 _ 31 _ 62 _ 32 _ 30 _ 60 _ 52 _ 47 __579____523 (21)
23 _delw __________ 44 _ 31 _ 38 _ 16 _ 34 _ 17 _ --- _ 47 _ --- _ 35 _ 26 _ 63 __351____351 (22)
22 _Danno _________ 54 _ 58 _ 55 _ 47 _ 51 _ 52 _ 58 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __375
23 _traecy.1 ________63 _ 58 _ 75 _ 54 _ 62 _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __351
25 _The Zohan ______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 23 _ 37 _ 42 _ 42 _ 82 _ 62 _ 54 _ --- __342

27 _talkabout _______59 _ --- _ 73 _ 66 _ 57 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __255
26 _sunflower3______--- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ 24 _ 65 _ 67 _ 52 _ 62 __310
28 _nilhg __________ 60 _ 64 _ 40 _ 72 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __236
29 _homolumo ______ 58 _ 59 _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __163
30 _Robxxx7 ________--- _ --- _ 72 _ 31 _ 33 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __136

31 _seafields ________40 _ --- _ 50 _ 33 _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- __123
32 _melanoma ______ 39 _ 65 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- __104
33 _yoghurt87 ______ --- _ --- _ 53 _ --- _ 41 _ --_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___94
34 _downwesht _____ --- _ --- _ 64 _ --- _ --- _ -- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___64
35 _dexter647 _____ --- _ --- _ --- _ 55 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___55

36 _YouTookMyName_ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 48 ___48
37 _octo __________ 47 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___47
38 _rebelcork ______ --- _ --- _ 46 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___46
39 _drdidlittle ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 40 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___40
40 _billcarson ______ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 39 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- ___39
41 _aimsir _________ --- _ --- _ 28 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---_ --- _ --- _ --- ___28
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