FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

July has been another poor summer month, aside from the 4 day dry spell last week it has mostly been unsettled and often on the cool side. How does the final week of July and first week of August look?

Everything still looks fairly unsettled, however we are starting to see a trend towards warmer and cooler interludes rather than remaining in the mid to upper teens most of the time. Rainfall is beginning to look slightly less than it did, but still mixed. The opening 10 days of July have in my opinion been the worst part of summer so far and it doesn't look like the next 2 weeks will be as bad as that.

Tomorrow looks like a poor day with an area of low pressure and plenty of heavy rain or showers across the country with some spot flooding likely in places. 20 to 35mm of rain is likely, especially across the west and north but heavy rain in all areas. Heaviest of the rain will be overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning but it should clear off as the day goes on. Temperatures tomorrow only 10 or 11C in the very far north to 17 or 18C across the south and south-east.

Once we get tomorrow out of the way, the rest of the week is looking much drier particularly for eastern and southern areas. Showers still likely across the west and north at times throughout the week.

Tuesday and Wednesday see's things drying out however showers still possible in the north-west at times. Temperatures around average or a little below ranging 12 to 19C, warmest across the south. A fair deal of cloud but should be some sunny breaks at times. Wednesday will be the dryer of the two days with most places staying dry throughout Wednesday. However a spell of rain is likely to cross the country Wednesday night.

Thursday see's a mostly dry and at times sunny day across the eastern and southern areas. Temperatures will begin to lift up between 18 and 21C in many places, especially across the east, south and midlands. Thursday should remain mostly dry but there is the threat of a rain band edging into western areas, how far inland that get's remains to be seen and temperatures will lower in areas affected by the rainfall.

Friday is likely to be wet across western and northern areas although this could turn rather patchy as it makes it's way eastwards. Staying dry for much of Friday across the east and south and if sunny spells occur it could turn fairly warm with temperatures reaching possibly 23C or 24C across parts of Leinster and the south-east if decent spells of sunshine occur. Temperatures elsewhere mid to high teens with the lower values in the more cloudy and wet areas.

Outlook:
Cooler from the weekend but remaining mostly mild and staying rather mixed. Temperatures generally 16 to 21C. There is the possibility that the air may become more unstable with some warm uppers mixing in with unsettled conditions as warmth will try to move in from the south at times during the first 2 weeks of August. This could lead to thunderstorm activity if the right conditions are meet. The beginning of August does look mixed with fairly average temperatures and regular rainfall, however some warm or very warm days are possible but these would be very brief and potentially unstable if they happen.

the models appear to be going for finally a warmer trend from the middle of next week. As always caution is advised as every attempt at bringing warmer weather to us so far this summer has resulted in either complete failure or a brief 24 hour rise to low level warmth across the east and south.

The GEM in particular really pushing heat across us by next weekend, no doubt southern and eastern parts of the UK will be locked in to this but for us here in Ireland this is very much on a knife-edge and will probably get downgraded as we progress towards mid week with an Atlantic influence always ready to just spoil things for us. We shall see. The GEM has warmth and eventually heat building from next Thursday and lasting past next weekend as far as the run goes on Monday the 10th of August.

GEM looks very tasty for next weekend but I have my doubts for us here in Ireland.



If this verifed we would widely get into the mid 20's, possibly high 20's in a few places.



ECM is similar to the GEM, just not as hot but has warmth brushing up against Ireland with the UK in a very warm or hot scene. It wouldn't take much adjustment for Ireland to be excluded and left with cool Atlantic air.



UKMO goes as far as Wednesday and has warmth building across the UK with Ireland on the very edge of it with cool Atlantic muck just off our western coasts.


GFS doesn't really get the warmth to Ireland with the heat concentrated over southern and eastern UK and Ireland in a moist Atlantic airflow with fairly wet conditions and relatively cool temperatures.



This looks very flimsy especially for us, we will be doing well if we get 2 dry sunny days and temperatures into the high teens to low twenties but we shall see.

It appears we are definitely now on the road to a warming trend, nothing very warm or anything like what the UK got on Friday but definitely something more seasonal is on the horizon.

it looks as if the Azores is going to make a more serious attempt at influencing our weather while linking up with a Scandinavian high. We may still get the odd interruption from Atlantic fronts brushing up against us but the Azores may easily rebound over us.

From Tuesday we will start to see a lift up in the temperatures from mid teens to high teens with a warm south-westerly flow.



By Thursday we will be in a rather warm flow with +10 uppers across most of the country and temperatures in the high teens to low twenties.



By Saturday we will see the heat rising over the UK whilst cooling done over Ireland as a front pushes just past our north-west with maybe some rain for western coastal areas.

Sunday will see the front well past our shores and the Azores high will be strengthening it's position over Ireland and linking up with that Scandinavian high.



If this verifies it will produce a nice sunny day next Sunday however temperatures for us still won't be that great, maybe 16 to 22C and it will be much warmer across the UK, however we will be settling down with more in the way of sunshine.

After next weekend it looks like the high will build and stengthen over us delivering several fairly settled, hopefully sunny and warm days. Monday to Wednedsay may see temperatures across the country between 18 and 24C, nothing that warm but pleasantly warm temperatures that are not excessive for anyone.

By Thursday the 13th we may see an interruption from the north-west but this is now a long way out. Still quite warm by this stage and temperatures close to low twenties.



We finish with the Azores building again into the following week with temperatures in the low to possibly mid twenties.



Tonights ensemble runs show a very definite lift up in the temperatures for us from mid week and lasting possibly a week or more. These ensembles look quite wet but I think they will tend to dry out alot over the next few runs.



ECM is similar with warmth building from midweek followed by a brief cooler interruption on Saturday and then the Azores builds from next Sunday into the following week.



GEM is cooler than the GFS or ECM but is of a similar theme.



This certainly does not look like a heatwave for us but a fairly big shift to a dryer and warmer scene with a feeling of summer coming back even if it's just for a week i'll gladly take it considering the awful summer we've had so far. It does appear we are getting a break from the relentless cloud, mist, rain, wind and chilly temperatures of summer 2020.

This mornings ECM is potentially very warm for Ireland, particularly western areas and favours a south-east flow from a hot continent, will be looking forward to see this evenings update to see does this persist.

Birdnuts wrote: »

Looks good 2nite too - could August save summer 2020??:eek::pac:;)

I haven't looked at the latest ECM but a few days of warm sunshine will not save this summer, we would need almost the entire month of August to be influenced by the Azores high, very little rainfall and temperatures regularly in the low to mid twenties to save this summer. However it is beginning to look like this first half of August will be more summer like compared to June and especially July.

Weather questions are always appreciated as this is the weather forum!

Next week still has to be nailed down but currently it is looking warm or possibly very warm but possibly unstable. We are losing the settled signal for next week but the warmth is ramping up at the same time.

From Sunday temperatures will start to rise but so will the instability, as our weather will be sourced from the continent. Temperatures next week generally between 17 and 23C or possibly 24C. Temperatures slightly higher than that may happen if we get decent sunny spells into the mix, so a 25 or 26C is well possible next week.

Latest GFS is showing a very notable warming trend next week but also a big increase in precipitation, these could well end up being thunderstorms. With this sort of scenario it would be very difficult to judge where see's rain and where doesn't. As per usual with thunderstorms some areas could stay dry, warm and sunny while others will get deluges.



The above ensemble shows the GFS operational (thick green line) is a bit of a cool outlier in regards to next week as it gets to +8C @850hpa, but most of the other members are getting to +14C to +16C uppers next week. We haven't seen uppers this warm all summer and these would suggest temperatures well into the twenties at some point. However at the same time the ensembles are showing very heavy rainfall spikes during the warmest section of weather next week and this is usually a very good indication of thundery potential rather than just a band of cold rain spreading in from the Atlantic.

Of course this is FI and this potentially warm and thundery spells is still a whole week away so it is not nailed in just yet. It does appear that we are heading towards a warm first half of August with temperatures into the low twenties much of the time and some instability at times. I would take this as a huge improvement over July even if it is not that settled. Interesting weather watching over the next 10 days especially for fans of convective weather.