July 2020 Boards weather forecast contest

Table of forecasts for July, 2020


FORECASTER ___________ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN ___ max min, loc'n


WesternStorm __________ 16.0 _ 29.0 _ 6.0 _ 075 _ 115 ___ 18.0 Claremorris

Tae laidir _______________15.9 _ 28.7 _ 3.8 _ 083 _ 096 ___ 17.8 Johnstown Castle

M.T. Cranium ___________ 15.8 _ 27.8 _ 3.5 _ 105 _ 105 ___ 18.2 Phoenix Park

adam240610 ___________ 15.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 16.1 Oak Park

waterways _____________ 15.7 _ 27.3 _ 3.2 _ 111 _ 103 ___ 15.9 Oak Park

Artane2002 ____________ 15.7 _ 27.2 _ 4.2 _ 110 _ 085 ___ 16.2 Shannon Airport

MrSkinner _____________ 15.6 _ 28.0 _ 3.6 _ 095 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Phoenix

Eon1208 _____ (-5) _____ 15.6 _ 26.5 _ 4.5 _ 108 _ 088 ___ 15.1 Oak Park

Sunflower3 ____________ 15.5 _ 28.1 _ 5.0 _ 085 _ 110 ___ 16.9 Oak park

john mac _______(-1) ___ 15.5 _ 26.8 _ 5.4 _ 105 _ 098 ___ 13.2 Newport

Kindred Spirit ___ (-1) ___ 15.4 _ 29.8 _ 4.1 _ 080 _ 110 ___ 14.5 Valentia.



NormaL _______________ 15.3 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.5 loc'n points by climatology


Dacogawa _____________ 15.2 _ 28.8 _ 3.2 _ 140 _ 090 ___ 17.3 Oak park


Con Sensus ____________ 15.2 _ 27.5 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 095 ___ 16.6


DOCARCH _____________ 15.2 _ 26.8 _ 4.2 _ 115 _ 095 ___ 14.2 Malin Head

mickger844posts ________15.2 _ 26.4 _ 4.5 _ 100 _ 100 ___ 17.4 Oak Park

Jpmarn _______________ 15.1 _ 26.5 _ 2.4 _ 110 _ 105 ___ 16.8 Oak Park

Dasa29 _______________ 15.0 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 120 _ 120 ___ 14.0 Mullingar

Bsal __________________15.0 _ 26.5 _ 4.0 _ 110 _ 095 ___ 15.0 Casement

sryanbruen ____________ 14.9 _ 26.3 _ 3.9 _ 105 _ 080 ___ 16.9 Shannon Airport

200motels _____________14.8 _ 27.7 _ 3.9 _ 101 _ 082 ___ 16.8 Shannon Airport

Appledrop _____________14.8 _ 27.5 _ 3.0 _ 130 _ 075 ___ 15.4 Mullingar

Gonzo _______ (-2) _____14.8 _ 25.8 _ 3.2 _ 118 _ 078 ___ 16.5 Shannon

Pauldry _______________ 14.7 _ 25.9 _ 4.0 _ 120 _ 095 ___ 16.6 Finner

___________________________________________

For the location of the highest minimum, of 21 forecasts, we have these choices:

Oak Park ___ 6 (con scores 3)

Shannon ___ 4 (con scores 3)

Mullingar ___2 (con scores 2)

Phoenix Pk _ 2 (con scores 2)

Valentia ____1 (con scores 1 to end of list)

Newport ____1

Claremorris _ 1

Finner _____ 1

Johnstown __ 1

Cassement __1

Malin Head _ 1

For any other locations, Con Sensus scores 0.

Your score will be 3 if you're right, 2 if your choice is second highest and 1 if it's third highest.

If nobody scores 3 this way, ranks will move up one (3 for second highest etc).

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note: I have included a late forecast from Eon1208 (below) but Con Sensus remains based on the regular timetable of entries. Since Eon1208 can't qualify to play the annual contest, I thought it would not matter if I reduced the hefty late penalty that would apply to any regular entrant who showed up on 4th. By the way, welcome back to Gonzo, Appledrop and Western Storm who have done at least one contest in the past.

Okay if you were a regular entrant that would be subject to a pretty large late penalty but I'll just apply five points as you're new and can't factor into the annual results. (It would be more like 30 points which is a big bite indeed).

Note to Rikand and BLIZZARD7 who are regulars that have not entered July, can't extend this concession to your good selves and would say if you do stumble in at this point, just hold off as your score is likely to become one of two discards anyway at this point.

After the first week of July (so they tell us) ...

IMT on 14.1, which is 0.9 below normal for the week.

MAX and MIN have not made an appearance yet.

PRC was 186% of normal.

SUN only 58% of normal (347/600).

The highest MIN so far (thanks to Tae laidir for tracking them) is 14.8 at various locations (all __ Park).

I think that 3.1 is lowest so far and stands a chance of remaining to the end.

No real sign of MAX yet, he's been delayed on his travels.

After the second week of July ...

IMT a rather chilly 13.7, the second week average was 13.3, which was 2.1 below normal.

MAX remains undetected, MIN 3.1

PRC now at 155% with the second week average 124% of normal. With no further rainfall this would only guarantee about 70% so a fairly dry outlook could see this down to normal or even into the 90s.

SUN has improved slightly to 69% with this past week at 79% (474/600).

The highest minimum remains 14.8 at the three Park locations.

After four weeks ...

IMT on 14.3 with fourth week 15.1 (0.5 below normal). Will finish around 14.5

MAX remains 24.0 and MIN 2.2

PRC back up to 144% with this past week 206%. Should finish around there.

SUN has slipped back to 87% with this past week around 78% (470/600). Should finish around 85%.

The "max min" remains 15.1 but I suspect a higher value may occur tomorrow or Friday.

Will be posting the August contest thread soon.