FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2021 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Another dry Spring appears on the cards. After only small amounts of rain the past few weeks the next couple of weeks look even drier with High Pressure over or near Ireland. Temperatures will be around normal too so some pleasant days ahead.

Yeah that cold spell can FO with the veg planted.

I think once this high pressure - slight showers - high pressure finally breaks down we're in trouble for a while. I haven't registered < 1000mbar absolute pressure since March. When this breaks, the Atlantic will get back in and it'll be hard to shift.

Generally a good spell in April like this means a somewhat ok May and a poor Summer.

The old stay outdoors message might be hard to obey in the coming weeks.
Stayed on beach all weekend as last year sunny weekends like that were few and far between so made the most of it.

These next few weeks are certainly trending cool and unsettled and possibly cool and very unsettled as mentioned above.

Where was this blocking in January?

Thought my woodstove was done for the year, looks like i better get some more supplies in, oh well, do like a nice fire
Hard to see the atlantic roaring back with mild sw winds any time soon.

Well my theory is theres cool and warm spells all year in Ireland so if May uses the cool theres a couple of warmer periods left before the end of August.

any updates here lads?

A long way off so a large pinch of kosher, but longer term outlooks favouring higher pressure to build close to Ireland during the last part of the month. Chart for day 10:

12C for Cork at 2pm on the 27th May with all the hallmarks of a brutal wind off the sea?

Pass. Horrid.

Whilst I am still somewhat skeptical about the sudden evaporation of low heights away from Greenland, it does seem a trend now that we will get an anticyclone of sorts building somewhere close to the country allowing things to settle down and shower risk to diminish by this time next week.

The placement of the high pressure will be key to what kind of temperatures Ireland gets. Runs like the ECM 0z have it slowly ridging in from the west by Tuesday or Wednesday next week with a pretty cool airmass from the north embedded in that does not quickly go away but things slowly get milder by day to mid-teens in any sunshine whilst nights remain chilly in the low single figures.

Another example of where the placement and progression comes in is the GFS 12z that just ran which shows the high building in much quicker than the ECM and this also allows it to warm up much faster with heights lowering in the Bay of Biscay. This forces the wind into more of a southeasterly direction by late May and into early June bringing temperatures widely into the low 20s, maybe even touching mid-20s in sheltered midland or western spots. It does go a bit unstable in early June as pressure lowers due to the instability and go westerly by the end of the run but there is no sign of blocking around Greenland and the Azores high looks prone to sending ridges northward. I don't think this is a very likely option. I think a more middle ground of the very cool ECM 0z and warm GFS 12z is likely.

However, the emphasis is on high pressure building in from the west this time next week right now and although cool at first, as it sticks around longer in the sunshine and if it attempts to push a little eastward, things will naturally start warming up too. Nights will be generally on the relatively cool side.



Raw max temperatures on GFS 12z for first day of meteorological summer.

fvp4 wrote: »

MT doesn’t seem optimistic that the high will stay around that long. Do any models keep it?

His latest thoughts seem heavily based on the GFS 0z which compared to the 12z I showed yesterday doesn't get rid of the Greenland heights altogether and I held skepticism that they would just be evaporated like that. It has fallen more in line with ECM which continues to show a generally settled but very cool solution up until the end when it sends a shortwave into the Bay of Biscay which would go a similar way to that of the GFS 12z.

As ever, such long range thoughts rely on what the modelling show especially with conflicting signals like at the current moment when some favour a change in the European cool/blocked pattern that has dominated since the beginning of April and others that show a continuation with the blocking proving stubborn.