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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

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Comments

  • #7702
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    Average age of a house buyer in Ireland?

    But we also built c. 70,000 residential units over the past 4 years or enough new units to accommodate c. 200,000 persons (based on an average of one couple plus one child per unit).

    Add in probate sales and refurbished units over the past 4 years and...


  • #7703
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Obsolescence wouldn’t be much of a factor for new builds or new probate sales.

    Between new builds and probate sales over the next twelve months there’s enough new housing supply entering the market to accommodate at least 90,000 persons (average of one couple and one child per unit) based on c. 20,000 new builds and c. 10,000 potential probate sales.

    In relation to the “growing population”:

    Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

    0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
    35 - 64 Years: +143,932
    65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

    You know what to factor and what not, but obsolescence is as well a factor, and many other things that you don't like to factor. A year will pass and you won't see those supplies flooding the market.

    I'm not sure why would you exclude people over 35 year. It's quite common to buy property over 35, and even 45 wouldn't be unusual.
    Apart from this older house owner are saving more money during Covid as well, which may help their kids financially to find their new homes.

    Ireland has unusual demographic with high number of population in the age of 35-45. They was 25-34 some years ago, but it doesn't mean that they fall-out of the property market.
    530005.JPG


  • #7704
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Obsolescence wouldn’t be much of a factor for new builds or new probate sales.

    Between new builds and probate sales over the next twelve months there’s enough new housing supply entering the market to accommodate at least 90,000 persons (average of one couple and one child per unit) based on c. 20,000 new builds and c. 10,000 potential probate sales.

    In relation to the “growing population”:

    Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

    0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
    35 - 64 Years: +143,932
    65 - 85+ Years: +102,174


    Here you go a little update for you so you can stop copying and pasting as its out of date

    so in 2019 the population can be broken down roughly as follows below have a look at the stats yourself

    about 1 million 0-14
    About 600k 15-24
    about 1.4 Million 25-44 (quite possibly the demographic most like to buy)
    about 1.2 Million 45 to 64 (quite possibly the 2nd most likely to buy)
    about 700K over 65

    Please dont copy and paste this again

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/710767/irish-population-by-age/

    and before you go saying but yours in from the CSO this was also got from data from the CSO

    https://statbank.cso.ie/multiquicktables/quickTables.aspx?id=pea01


  • #7705
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,854 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    PropQueries wrote: »
    But by September 2021 we will also have an additional c. 20,000 new build homes, thousands of additional probate sales and probably a very small increase in (if any) net inward migration.

    Thousands of extra probate sales? From what? If you think its covid, its a drop in the ocean compared to all other daily deaths ...


  • #7706
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Idbatterim wrote: »
    Thousands of extra probate sales? From what? If you think its covid, its a drop in the ocean compared to all other daily deaths ...

    Not relating the increase to Covid. There have been delays with probate sales over the past several years and this backlog should start entering supply over the next twelve months:

    “Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

    Link here from 2018: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/?amp=1


  • #7707
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Not relating the increase to Covid. There have been delays with probate sales over the past several years and this backlog should start entering supply over the next twelve months:

    “Some 30,000 people pass away every year in Ireland with up to 86% of them owning a home. This potentially leaves some 26,000 homes affected by these delays in probate.”

    Link here from 2018: https://www.thejournal.ie/probate-2-3870061-Feb2018/?amp=1

    Or Less than 15k if we apply your rule of a couple & child per housing unit.


  • #7708
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Or Less than 15k if we apply your rule of a couple & child per housing unit.

    I actually knocked the figure back by two thirds to c. 10,000 potential probate sales or enough homes to accommodate c. 30,000 persons at an average of one couple and one child. Basically enough new supply (before any new builds are built) to house the total population of an additional new large town in Ireland each year.

    And most of these properties would be located in what many would consider prime locations.


  • #7709
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    I actually knocked the figure back by two thirds to c. 10,000 potential probate sales or enough homes to accommodate c. 30,000 persons at an average of one couple and one child. Basically enough new supply (before any new builds are built) to house the total population of an additional new large town in Ireland each year.

    And most of these properties would be located in what many would consider prime locations.

    Here is a breakdown of the funds in Ireland I was correct when I said mainly Debt and Equity

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/other-financial-sector-statistics/investment-funds/information-release-investment-fund-statistics---2020q2.pdf?sfvrsn=6


  • #7710
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Timing belt wrote: »
    Here is a breakdown of the funds in Ireland I was correct when I said mainly Debt and Equity

    https://www.centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/statistics/data-and-analysis/other-financial-sector-statistics/investment-funds/information-release-investment-fund-statistics---2020q2.pdf?sfvrsn=6

    That’s not related the so-called vulture funds. The line “The Net Asset Value (NAV) of Irish-resident investment funds (IFs) increased by €266 billion, or 12 per cent, to €2,423 billion in Q2 2020” is the giveaway.


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  • #7711
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    That’s not related the so-called vulture funds. The line “The Net Asset Value (NAV) of Irish-resident investment funds (IFs) increased by €266 billion, or 12 per cent, to €2,423 billion in Q2 2020” is the giveaway.

    Yes some of these funds business model is to buy debt at a discount and max the return. The NAV is the net asset values of what the funds own Globally and they are only described as Irish resident because the legal entity is registered here.


  • #7712
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Some possible good news if you’re against co-living with “Taoiseach Micheál Martin has acknowledged that co-living accommodation has the potential to become glorified tenement living”.

    Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/co-living-apartments-could-become-glorified-tenement-living-says-taoiseach-1.4386528


  • #7713
    Idbatterim
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,854 ✭✭✭✭Idbatterim


    Laughable. Co living is a rip off, but whats his plan? 50 square meter apartments affordable on an average wage? Good one...


  • #7714
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/oaktree-joins-forces-with-johnny-ronan-on-irish-glass-bottle-site-1.4386155

    Ronan uber alles.
    Johnny Ronan’s Ronan Group Real Estate (RGRE) has secured US private equity group Oaktree as a joint venture partner for the development of the former Irish Glass Bottle (IGB) site in Dublin.

    News of RGRE’s addition of the Los Angeles-headquartered investment giant as a partner on the scheme comes just weeks after The Irish Times reported how underbidders for the project had contacted Nama to express their continued interest in the site following the expiration of the 30-day time period the agency had set for the deal’s completion.

    The bid was well in excess of the €125 million guide price Nama had been guiding when it began marketing the opportunity in July 2019. It is also understood to have outstripped the offers made by the other shortlisted parties by a significant margin.

    The other shortlisted bidders were: Sean Mulryan’s Ballymore Group; Dallas-based private equity giant Lone Star’s Quintain Ireland housebuilding unit; and US real estate investment firm Hines.

    The former IGB site lands are held through a company called Pembroke Ventures. Some 10 per cent or 350 of the 3,500 homes planned for the site are to be set aside for social housing, while at least 15 per cent (525) are expected to be affordable housing. The site also has scope for up to one million sq ft of office and retail accommodation, along with a school and public space.

    This will be a fantastic development once they start turning the sod. It's very promising to see such interest from big name investors in the housing market. It will give us lots of new developments so buyers won't have to take the probate places which need the old lady smell fumigated just because there is so little supply.


  • #7715
    KennisWhale
    Closed Accounts Posts: 186 ✭✭KennisWhale


    HotDudeLife wrote: »
    Do people foresee a crash in the rental market and it perhaps cascading onto house prices?

    I know a handful of people who have managed to negotiate 10-20% reductions off their rent when it came to renewing the lease, all reductions were none covid related (couples still working, not impacted).

    Personally most younger workers in my org from down the country have all stopped renting in Dublin or left their house share and returned home, that and the lack of students/tourists will surely drive rents down a lot? Maybe i am wrong but if i was a landlord i would sell now and if i was an investor a buy to let would be one of the last items on my list to invest in.

    In Dublin, the rental market has plummeted in the 7 months since just before lockdown for the 1 and 2 bed apartments, with no sign of a floor as of yet considering the 6 week lockdown at least we now have and the eviction ban until the New Year. Supply up hugely as well.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=115002444&postcount=1929


  • #7716
    thefridge2006
    Registered Users Posts: 220 ✭✭thefridge2006


    Covid-19 public spending unsustainable without vaccine – Donohoe

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-public-spending-unsustainable-without-vaccine-donohoe-1.4386188

    Making excuses already for the fairy-tale budget that was never going to work


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  • #7717
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    thefridge2006 wrote: »
    Covid-19 public spending unsustainable without vaccine – Donohoe

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-public-spending-unsustainable-without-vaccine-donohoe-1.4386188

    Making excuses already for the fairy-tale budget that was never going to work

    Is he not just stating the obvious I reckon they will be able to keep this up for a good 2 or 3 years and hopefully a vaccine will be in play by then. Already Pfizer are on the last stage of trials with their vaccine


  • #7718
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Institutional investors bought over 1,000 homes in Dublin in Q3 2020.

    "The continued strength of Dublin’s private rented sector (PRS) market was evidenced once again in the three-month period to the end of September with 1,016 homes sold for a total of €470 million to institutional investors.

    The largest transaction in the first nine months of this year across all categories of investment saw the Cosgrave Property Group secure about €200 million from the sale of 368 apartments at Cualanor in Dún Laoghaire to Deutsche Bank subsidiary, DWS. Contracts were also signed on the € 145 million off-market sale to DWS of 317 residential units spread over four developments in north Dublin."

    Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/institutional-investors-spend-470m-on-residential-properties-in-latest-quarter-1.4381696


  • #7719
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Looks like the Government has come up with a new way to keep rents high for young workers in Ireland. They plan to replace 'reception centres' for up to 3,500 asylum seekers a year with a scheme similar to HAP where they will rent homes from private landlords. For 'private landlords', just change to 'their investor property owning mates' :)

    To the younger workers. I genuinely feel sorry for you. You can't/won't win.

    "Local councils would use private rental accommodation to house asylum seekers, in a similar way to how homeless people are housed in private rental tenancies through HAP."

    Link to Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/asylum-seekers-would-be-given-own-door-accommodation-after-three-months-under-ambitious-direct-provision-proposal-39651296.html


  • #7720
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Looks like the Government has come up with a new way.....

    Minister for Justice Helen McEntee said the government would look at the recommendation but “at this moment in time it’s not something that I can give a commitment to.”


  • #7721
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    Minister for Justice Helen McEntee said the government would look at the recommendation but “at this moment in time it’s not something that I can give a commitment to.”

    Aw come on :) You know the purpose behind this 'recommendation'. I'm actually quite impressed. They have the younger workers by the proverbial this time. They have come up with a scheme to keep rents high indefinitely and where they can't complain or they will be labeled you know what. :)


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  • #7722
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    If you're going to throw in hysterical posts about proposals and present them as policy, expect to get called on it.


  • #7723
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Graham wrote: »
    If you're going to throw in hysterical posts about proposals and present them as policy, expect to get called on it.

    Ok. I'll take your point. I guess we'll have to wait and see where this proposal goes.


  • #7724
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Ok. I'll take your point. I guess we'll have to wait and see where this proposal goes.

    Your assertion that the people behind proposals to improve things for asylum seekers are somehow motivated by screwing over young workers is far-fetched, and pretty nasty.


  • #7725
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Springy Turf wrote: »
    Your assertion that the people behind proposals to improve things for asylum seekers are somehow motivated by screwing over young workers is far-fetched, and pretty nasty.

    I'll take the flac. I'll 100% admit it was worded wrongly. I'm just extremely suspect of any Government proposal that may add demand to a market that apparently has supply issues. Especially when there are many other possible solutions that wouldn't impact as much on the supply/demand dynamics of the market.

    This proposal has the potential to significantly impact the demand side of the equation with no obvious benefits to either the state, the asylum seeker or the younger worker seeking rental accommodation in our cities.

    If a younger worker is thinking of buying, they must compete with both the state and the investment/pension funds for housing. If they're renting they must compete with the state under the long-term lease initiative, HAP etc. and now another version of HAP may be thrown into the mix. Many workers must accept HAP not because they don't work hard but simply because they have no choice because of the government's policy (and it does now appear to be policy) of driving rents ever higher through these schemes.

    In fact, I truly believe that this proposal has the very real potential to invite resentment towards this group (not justified on any level) as has already been seen in many villages up and down the country. But, time will tell as they say.

    But I'll fully admit I could have worded it differently. So apologies and no offence meant.


  • #7726
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Aw come on :) You know the purpose behind this 'recommendation'. I'm actually quite impressed. They have the younger workers by the proverbial this time. They have come up with a scheme to keep rents high indefinitely and where they can't complain or they will be labeled you know what. :)

    i think this comment is extremely offensive.


  • #7727
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Hubertj wrote: »
    i think this comment is extremely offensive.

    See my mea culpa above.


  • #7728
    salamiii
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 146 ✭✭salamiii


    unemployment will keep rising.more houses will come on market.more rentals will come out as people move out due to high rents

    you looking at the next six months for this to happen


    you need to save up cash as the rainy day is coming


  • #7729
    stefanovich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    salamiii wrote: »
    unemployment will keep rising.more houses will come on market.more rentals will come out as people move out due to high rents

    you looking at the next six months for this to happen


    you need to save up cash as the rainy day is coming

    Yes, liquidate all your assets into cash. Stick it in a 0% interest rate deposit account while they devalue the currency.


  • #7730
    optogirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,996 ✭✭✭optogirl


    Lads this is hard work. Looked at a house last week in D7. Asking price 265k. No bids in for 5 days so we put in one at asking price. Came back today to say current highest offer is at 310. Yikes.


  • #7731
    stefanovich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    optogirl wrote: »
    Lads this is hard work. Looked at a house last week in D7. Asking price 265k. No bids in for 5 days so we put in one at asking price. Came back today to say current highest offer is at 310. Yikes.

    Do you believe the estate agent? Some just make up offers to inflate the price.

    Have a budget and stick to it. Call the estate agents bluff.


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  • #7732
    Moving!
    Registered Users Posts: 25 ✭Moving!


    optogirl wrote: »
    Lads this is hard work. Looked at a house last week in D7. Asking price 265k. No bids in for 5 days so we put in one at asking price. Came back today to say current highest offer is at 310. Yikes.

    I'm seeing a lot of this. The COVID-savings plus low supply are driving sale prices ridiculously high.


  • #7733
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,111 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    stefanovich wrote: »
    Yes, liquidate all your assets into cash. Stick it in a 0% interest rate deposit account while they devalue the currency.

    That's, a strategy, except make it the stock market and not banks. Anyone who bought bitcoin below €9K this year is laughing today.


  • #7734
    optogirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,996 ✭✭✭optogirl


    stefanovich wrote: »
    Do you believe the estate agent? Some just make up offers to inflate the price.

    Have a budget and stick to it. Call the estate agents bluff.

    Is this really a thing? I don't want to believe it is but I feel naive for saying that.....I think we might just leave it there and hope something else comes up in the area.


  • #7735
    combat14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,273 ✭✭✭combat14


    At this rate it looks there will be alot of retailers and renters not able to pay their rent/mortgages next year ...

    Hard to see banks here giving another 6 months of forbearance.....

    Once businesses start going bust there will be a domino affect the likes of which we havent seen so far yet


    Government fears Nphet will seek new lockdown after Christmas break

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/government-fears-nphet-will-seek-new-lockdown-after-christmas-break-1.4386974?mode=amp


  • #7736
    stefanovich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    optogirl wrote: »
    Is this really a thing? I don't want to believe it is but I feel naive for saying that.....I think we might just leave it there and hope something else comes up in the area.

    Yes, happened to me.


  • #7737
    stefanovich
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,490 ✭✭✭stefanovich


    cnocbui wrote: »
    That's, a strategy, except make it the stock market and not banks. Anyone who bought bitcoin below €9K this year is laughing today.

    I'm being sarcastic! ANYTHING BUT CASH :D


  • #7738
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    optogirl wrote: »
    Lads this is hard work. Looked at a house last week in D7. Asking price 265k. No bids in for 5 days so we put in one at asking price. Came back today to say current highest offer is at 310. Yikes.

    I bet that's the same house I was looking at, in Cabra? I think the issue there is that the EA significantly underpriced it to begin with, if you look at what similar properties have sold for there recently. Whether this was through incompetence or by design, who knows.


  • #7739
    Smouse156
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 529 ✭✭✭Smouse156


    Gotta feel for the poor fella (in number 18) that lost 260k in a year (not realised yes) or could have got the house 260k cheaper. 15/16/17/18 identical and with Glenveagh’s price drops, 15 & 17 sold for 260k less:

    https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/?action=search&county=6&property_type=0&date_from=2010-01-01&date_to=2020-10-21&price_from=0&price_to=0&address=Proby+place

    And before anyone asks, this website includes the VAT on new builds!

    https://glenveagh.ie/download/proby-place-brochure/?wpdmdl=449&ind=1529594520885

    Anyway, with poor/slow sales can’t see anything but decent drops to come in the high end of the Dublin market.

    However, anything under 500k qualifying for help the Brickie should rise.


  • #7740
    optogirl
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,996 ✭✭✭optogirl


    Shelga wrote: »
    I bet that's the same house I was looking at, in Cabra? I think the issue there is that the EA significantly underpriced it to begin with, if you look at what similar properties have sold for there recently. Whether this was through incompetence or by design, who knows.

    Yep. Hard to understand why it was priced at 265. To get some interest in it?


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  • #7741
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Smouse156 wrote: »
    Gotta feel for the poor fella (in number 18) that lost 260k in a year (not realised yes) or could have got the house 260k cheaper. 15/16/17/18 identical and with Glenveagh’s price drops, 15 & 17 sold for 260k less:

    https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/?action=search&county=6&property_type=0&date_from=2010-01-01&date_to=2020-10-21&price_from=0&price_to=0&address=Proby+place

    And before anyone asks, this website includes the VAT on new builds!

    https://glenveagh.ie/download/proby-place-brochure/?wpdmdl=449&ind=1529594520885

    Anyway, with poor/slow sales can’t see anything but decent drops to come in the high end of the Dublin market.

    However, anything under 500k qualifying for help the Brickie should rise.

    ugly looking houses for that kind of money! An interesting comparison would be 2nd hand homes in that price bracket in the area. Surely you could get a much nicer home in Blackrock at the €1.2M range.
    Also, 3 story would be a no no for me. I lived in a house share once and it was a pain in the hoop up and down all the stairs!


  • #7742
    Shelga
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,016 ✭✭✭Shelga


    optogirl wrote: »
    Yep. Hard to understand why it was priced at 265. To get some interest in it?

    I was wondering that too, I really don't know. Because they just wasted your time and mine- don't know about you but I certainly can't afford €310k. Before I viewed it I looked at what other houses very near there had sold for on the property register, and they were all €290k+, for houses that weren't even as nice as that one, and smaller.

    It's really annoying actually. Maybe they want to be able to say "this house sold for €40k more than asking", even though the asking price was not reflective of reality? Or to encourage a bidding war?


  • #7743
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    salamiii wrote: »
    unemployment will keep rising.more houses will come on market.more rentals will come out as people move out due to high rents

    you looking at the next six months for this to happen


    you need to save up cash as the rainy day is coming

    Is that you neutralguy?


  • #7744
    HotDudeLife
    Closed Accounts Posts: 157 ✭✭HotDudeLife


    stefanovich wrote: »
    I'm being sarcastic! ANYTHING BUT CASH :D


    In fairness there is zero chance of inflation in the short term (1-2years).


    I think those sitting on a decent amount of cash (200k mark) will be in a good position to purchase in the next 18months.


  • #7745
    HotDudeLife
    Closed Accounts Posts: 157 ✭✭HotDudeLife


    TheSheriff wrote: »
    Is that you neutralguy?


    lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.


  • #7746
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    HotDudeLife wrote: »
    lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

    Everything has been due for a massive correction for years now to be honest. I'd hedge my bets that in six months we'll be in the same state of static movement we've been in the past year.

    This 'massive correction' you keep referring too sure is taking it's time for something so massive.


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  • #7747
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    HotDudeLife wrote: »
    lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

    With such expertise you can make a fortune by shorting stocks.


  • #7748
    Computer Science Student
    Registered Users Posts: 225 ✭✭Computer Science Student


    Quick question, what is the most complete resource to get every property sold in Ireland in the last 5 years ? (in any format)


  • #7749
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    Computer Science Student wrote: »
    Quick question, what is the most complete resource to get every property sold in Ireland in the last 5 years ? (in any format)

    https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/
    You can download csv file.
    It has last 10 years of data.
    I have done number of analytics on that dataset, in case you have any queries.


  • #7750
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    HotDudeLife wrote: »
    lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

    Interest rates will be zero on deposits for years to come and I also think stock markets will crash as logic is gone out the window with valuations but don’t see house prices going through the floor and think we will see inflation in the economy but it will be on food and transport.


  • #7751
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,254 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Marius34 wrote: »
    With such expertise you can make a fortune by shorting stocks.




    The timing is the important thing. If you want to short the market then you can do so, but if you get the timing wrong, you'll lose your shirt.



    That said, saying that a crash is coming is also a meaningless prediction without giving a timeframe...........I can say that a crash is coming and I will be almost surely correct within my lifetime that there will be some form of a crash.


    Is there a bubble in the market - likely yes. When will it burst? It might not do so for a relatively long time. It will depend on the supply of money into it. Central banks might keep pumping in liquidity if they can't reach their target inflation. People with money will want to put it somewhere if rates are low (or zero). Japan has had a problem of deflation and negative rates at the short end for a long time now.


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