Property Market 2018

08-11-2018 11:59am

RayCun wrote: »

The 100 people isn't static. If people retire early, stay in school longer, are out of work with disability, are supported by spouses etc, they aren't counted as part of the workforce. They aren't among the 14 people signing on. But when jobs are available they go out to work.

It was a nonsense point in the first place, it means 86 of 100 of the workforce are in employment. Those 14 who aren't have who knows how many dependents.

And 14 of 100 people not working is obviously massive. Seems to be acceptable for some as long as they're ok though it seems.

Assetbacked · 08-11-2018 12:13pm

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

Oddly formatted posts are the least of your problems.

Perhaps a recession is the wrong word for a solution - the main point is that we are hurtling towards unsustainability. I'm not talking about a 2008 type of recession but some type of correction to the unsustainable level of job creation in Dublin being fed by more and more people coming here to work when we do not have accommodation for people. This is just making rent more expensive (in conjunction with utilities etc.) which means that net wages are dropping more and more yet we are told things are going well which is ridiculous.

I think this article puts the point across better how some type of correction would actually be beneficial http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/this-time-the-overheating-is-different/

M.Cribben · 08-11-2018 12:18pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

You're thinking that every recession is on the level of 2008. 2008 was a once in a generation event.

Exactly.
It's part of our survival instinct as humans to seek out patterns and assume they will repeat. We saw property prices reach these levels in 2007, then recession hits in 2008. The problem with this logic is it doesn't account for any of the complex economic factors that impact property prices. I believe the economy will slow down certainly in the coming 3-5 years, as the rate of acceleration is unsustainable. But a crash/recession on the scale of 2008-2013? Not a chance imo.

M.Cribben · 08-11-2018 12:23pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

Perhaps a recession is the wrong word for a solution - the main point is that we are hurtling towards unsustainability. I'm not talking about a 2008 type of recession but some type of correction to the unsustainable level of job creation in Dublin being fed by more and more people coming here to work when we do not have accommodation for people. This is just making rent more expensive (in conjunction with utilities etc.) which means that net wages are dropping more and more yet we are told things are going well which is ridiculous.

I think this article puts the point across better how some type of correction would actually be beneficial http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/this-time-the-overheating-is-different/

David McWilliams wrote:

Another shock could be that those large service-based multinationals pull out of Ireland. This would definitely send the property market into an overheating/slump/crash trajectory.

This doesn’t look like happening – and even if it did, the crash wouldn’t spill over to Irish balance sheets, because we Irish are not really involved in either the financing or the developing part of this property market.

Interesting point, on the day that Facebook announce move to a new campus with capacity for an additional 5,000 jobs.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 12:25pm

Why do you think the problem is job creation rather than the supply of housing?
Wouldn't it be better to have all these jobs, and more places to live, than to reduce the number of jobs?

08-11-2018 12:27pm

RayCun wrote: »

Why do you think the problem is job creation rather than the supply of housing?
Wouldn't it be better to have all these jobs, and more places to live, than to reduce the number of jobs?

Because wishing misery on others is preferable obviously.

Assetbacked · 08-11-2018 12:27pm

RayCun wrote: »

Why do you think the problem is job creation rather than the supply of housing?
Wouldn't it be better to have all these jobs, and more places to live, than to reduce the number of jobs?

The problem with the job creation is that the supply of housing is not keeping up with it and there is little being done to increase the supply of housing. We have had all major parties in some form (i.e. with their TDs or via their councillors) objecting to housing developments yet at the same time pretending to care that it is a housing "crisis".

08-11-2018 12:42pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Even in the great recession we had 86 out of every 100 people working. That's a lot of people.

Not good data you are using there.

I wasnt working here and I barely showed in their figures. I lost my job in '09 went on the dole for a short period, did some college and them emigrated for 3 years.

Bluefoam · 08-11-2018 12:45pm

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Not good data you are using there.

I wasnt working here and I barely showed in their figures. I lost my job in '09 went on the dole for a short period, did some college and them emigrated for 3 years.

Yeh, he obviously didn't count you when he mentioned the stats... did you have your hand up? :rolleyes:

TSQ · 08-11-2018 12:45pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

The problem with the job creation is that the supply of housing is not keeping up with it and there is little being done to increase the supply of housing. We have had all major parties in some form (i.e. with their TDs or via their councillors) objecting to housing developments yet at the same time pretending to care that it is a housing "crisis".

Why is it not a condition of planning permission for large office developments to be mixed use - i.e. to have a percentage of residential accommodation in some proportion to the number of employees envisaged? A number of the new office developments in the Docklands are mixed use, I don't know whether this decision was a imposed by planning dept or developer led. Should be much more widespread, either way.

JDD · 08-11-2018 12:48pm

The answer has to be supply. Supply, supply, supply. And not just in Dublin, because that is going to lead to sprawl and without a sea change in the Irish need for a house rather than an apartment (which will take a generation to change) or a transport network that can cope (which will involve massive investment by the government and therefore increased tax) that's going to lead to a really crappy life for the people that live more than an hours commute from the city.

The supply push has to be in Cork and Galway too, whose housing markets are also overheating, though perhaps have a greater capacity to take on more people if the supply is there. We just need to get the MNCs there too.

And you can't get away from the fact that part of that housing solution has to be social housing. It's not the only factor, but it has to be part of it. Taking a tranche of lower end renters out of the equation will decrease rents overall. That will dissuade the REITs from bulk buying new builds, increasing the supply. Other things like reducing the cost of new builds and using the carrot AND stick to discourage land hoarding will also help. I've always been against the use of CPOs for anything other than national infrastructure reasons, but I'm actually coming round to the idea of using CPOs for derelict properties. I'm just not sure any laws allowing that would be constitutional.

mike_cork · 08-11-2018 12:52pm

The lack of properties to rent in Cork City is scary at the moment. When I go onto Daft.ie for a cursory look at available properties to rent i am shocked at how few are available/how expensive they are/how many views each available property is getting i.e.people desperate to find somewhere.

08-11-2018 12:55pm

Terrible news announced this morning, Facebook to create another 5k jobs in Dublin. Devastated.

OwlsZat · 08-11-2018 1:22pm

M.Cribben wrote: »

Interesting point, on the day that Facebook announce move to a new campus with capacity for an additional 5,000 jobs.

This is it. The Government has clearly made the bed. Uber low corporate taxes boosted by huge income levies. Extortionate rents and housing costs. The American model stretching the gap between wealthy and poor. Welcome to Ireland of the céad míle fáilte :rolleyes:

Bit like the teachers. No hassle saddling young people the burdened. The only difference is they will never admit the mistake. Too interested in self preservation.

I do wonder what the breaking point is.

Pussyhands · 08-11-2018 1:22pm

RayCun wrote: »

The 100 people isn't static. If people retire early, stay in school longer, are out of work with disability, are supported by spouses etc, they aren't counted as part of the workforce. They aren't among the 14 people signing on. But when jobs are available they go out to work.

Yeah we had loads of 16 year olds leaving school after the JC to go labouring....

OwlsZat · 08-11-2018 1:27pm

mike_cork wrote: »

The lack of properties to rent in Cork City is scary at the moment. When I go onto Daft.ie for a cursory look at available properties to rent i am shocked at how few are available/how expensive they are/how many views each available property is getting i.e.people desperate to find somewhere.

Don't worry we're going to privatise that to overseas pension schemes. Happy to build units for rent at extortionate prices. You're welcome.

08-11-2018 1:37pm

mike_cork wrote: »

The lack of properties to rent in Cork City is scary at the moment. When I go onto Daft.ie for a cursory look at available properties to rent i am shocked at how few are available/how expensive they are/how many views each available property is getting i.e.people desperate to find somewhere.

A lot of folks on here are quite happy to see landlords leave the market.

Tough luck for anyone looking for a place to rent.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 2:51pm

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

A lot of folks on here are quite happy to see landlords leave the market.

Tough luck for anyone looking for a place to rent.

Every second thread seems to have a story about REITs buying/building whole developments to rent.

RayCun · 08-11-2018 2:52pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Yeah we had loads of 16 year olds leaving school after the JC to go labouring....

How about 18 year olds choosing between college and immediate employment?

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 2:58pm

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

What's your source for wages being static?

Wages:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/worrying-trend-as-jobs-are-created-but-pay-is-not-increasing-853081.html
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/cantillon/paper-sheds-light-on-missing-wage-growth-1.3689842

Assetbacked · 08-11-2018 3:08pm

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

Terrible news announced this morning, Facebook to create another 5k jobs in Dublin. Devastated.

5k workers coming from all over Europe on an Erasmus holiday to work and play before following the jobs to the next city that bends over and spreads its cheeks for Big Tech to stretch the resources to the max, simply following the bottom line and contributing minimally to the benefit of the country's economy.

If the announcement was followed with "5,000 new apartments to be developed on south docks" then these sort of announcements would be great. Otherwise, at this point it is dismaying to read that the jobs are going to Dublin yet again with no housing to match it.

cordy1969 · 08-11-2018 3:12pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

5k workers coming from all over Europe on an Erasmus holiday to work and play before following the jobs to the next city that bends over and spreads its cheeks for Big Tech to stretch the resources to the max, simply following the bottom line and contributing minimally to the benefit of the country's economy.

If the announcement was followed with "5,000 new apartments to be developed on south docks" then these sort of announcements would be great. Otherwise, at this point it is dismaying to read that the jobs are going to Dublin yet again with no housing to match it.

Yes absolutely terrible news, that the local economy will be boosted and increase consumer spending into the local areas.

Im with you, kill all big corporates and lets go back to living in wooden huts.

Assetbacked · 08-11-2018 3:14pm

cordy1969 wrote: »

Yes absolutely terrible news, that the local economy will be boosted and increase consumer spending into the local areas.

Im with you, kill all big corporates and lets go back to living in wooden huts.

It's not kill all big corporates - it's about sustainable growth which is the heart of good capitalism. Living conditions are worsening where resources are being stretched more and more. All the local economic benefits in terms of local businesses receiving a boost is excellent and that is what normally accompanies job creation. However, the housing resources are not there to sustain this level of influx to the city.

Mickiemcfist · 08-11-2018 3:19pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

If the announcement was followed with "5,000 new apartments to be developed on south docks" then these sort of announcements would be great. Otherwise, at this point it is dismaying to read that the jobs are going to Dublin yet again with no housing to match it.

You know Bankcentre has previously held employees right?

cordy1969 · 08-11-2018 3:20pm

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's not kill all big corporates - it's about sustainable growth which is the heart of capitalism. Living conditions are worsening where resources are being stretched more and more.

Then how about changing the investment laws to allow the capital investment into housing development that this country so desperately needs.
Lots of complaining about how the housing crisis is this and that.

You tell the LL/Developer what they can and can't buy, how much they can and can't charge and then tell them that sorry if your tenant doesn't pay but they have no where else to live, so they can stay at your place rent free and don't worry about the damage the tenant has just caused its not covered its part of the risk of being a LL.

When people wake up to the ridiculous property laws in place here, only then will the market start to rebuild and stabilise.

Assetbacked · 08-11-2018 3:46pm

cordy1969 wrote: »

Then how about changing the investment laws to allow the capital investment into housing development that this country so desperately needs.
Lots of complaining about how the housing crisis is this and that.

You tell the LL/Developer what they can and can't buy, how much they can and can't charge and then tell them that sorry if your tenant doesn't pay but they have no where else to live, so they can stay at your place rent free and don't worry about the damage the tenant has just caused its not covered its part of the risk of being a LL.

When people wake up to the ridiculous property laws in place here, only then will the market start to rebuild and stabilise.

I'm not sure what I could do to solve the crisis (increase property tax to ensure those that can't afford their property sell up, as an example) but I do know that the government of the past few years has (1) directly contributed to the crisis and (2) not taken impactful measures to try to alleviate it. It's a multi-faceted solution which is required but the bottom line is that the market needs to be flooded with properties, however that can be achieved.

JDD · 08-11-2018 3:54pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

You know Bankcentre has previously held employees right?

A different social segment of employees though. Most who worked in AIB didn't live in the south docks - they commuted in from all around Dublin and the commuter belt. Facebook has just been successful in securing a building which will allow it to recruit 5,000 more employess. Most of whom will want to live to Ringsend/Sandymount/close to the city. And there's no new apartments to house them in. All the building in that area is new office space.

Then how about changing the investment laws to allow the capital investment into
housing development that this country so desperately needs.

What laws would you wish to change?

You tell the LL/Developer what they can and can't buy, how much they can and
can't charge and then tell them that sorry if your tenant doesn't pay but they
have no where else to live, so they can stay at your place rent free and don't
worry about the damage the tenant has just caused its not covered its part of
the risk of being a LL.

The problem is, most of those on HAP should be housed in social housing, not being accommodated by private landlords. Those living at the poverty level should not be a private landlord's problem, and the council paying private landlords to take them on is just outsourcing their responsibilities.

Not to say that all non-cooperative tenants are poverty line or working-poor level people. Some middle class tenants can be equally as crappy. But if you got those people least able to source alternative accommodation out the system, then judges would stop interpreting the law so favourably towards tenants.

08-11-2018 4:57pm

phunkadelic wrote: »

Wages:
https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/worrying-trend-as-jobs-are-created-but-pay-is-not-increasing-853081.html
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/cantillon/paper-sheds-light-on-missing-wage-growth-1.3689842

They're not about Ireland they're about the OECD/EU.

There's an ESRI paper on this, published in July. The first line of the abstract is "Over the past 30 years, there have been periods of boom and bust, but average household incomes have grown strongly in Ireland".

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.esri.ie/pubs/BP201903.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiC6eObmcXeAhUQAXwKHbCMA0MQFjACegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1Mo7SQha_0XXMDypnHg0Kn

You've no evidence to back up anything you've said do you?

Pussyhands · 08-11-2018 5:33pm

Prices need to come down 25% realistically and that's just never going to happen no matter how much supply comes up.

Because new houses are probably 20% more expensive than current ones anyways just increasing the average price of property.

And without highrise, the new housing density is just not gonna be enough to cater for demand.

Mickiemcfist · 08-11-2018 5:38pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

Prices need to come down 25% realistically and that's just never going to happen no matter how much supply comes up.

Because new houses are probably 20% more expensive than current ones anyways just increasing the average price of property.

And without highrise, the new housing density is just not gonna be enough to cater for demand.

New houses are cheaper than second hand in most cases I've seen?

Pussyhands · 08-11-2018 5:42pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

New houses are cheaper than second hand in most cases I've seen?

The 2nd hand house must be furnished then.

These prices are INSANE

https://www.daft.ie/kildare/houses-for-sale/maynooth/house-type-f-carton-wood-maynooth-kildare-1948387/

Mickiemcfist · 08-11-2018 5:46pm

Pussyhands wrote: »

The 2nd hand house must be furnished then.

These prices are INSANE

https://www.daft.ie/kildare/houses-for-sale/maynooth/house-type-f-carton-wood-maynooth-kildare-1948387/

Sorry I was speaking specifically about Dublin, even more specifically South County. People seem to be willing to pay a premium to live in an established area.

545k for a house in Maynooth does sound absolutely absurd to me.

08-11-2018 5:59pm

1800+ sqft a train ride from the city centre... Yeah I'm not shocked.

Samuel T. Cogley · 08-11-2018 5:59pm

174Sqm. Now I know some people seem to think anything less than 200sqm is too small for a couple and a cat but realistically it perfectly reasonable to bring up a family in a 100Sqm house. Plus you have to add the massive premium people will pay for a fresh coat of paint.

Samuel T. Cogley · 08-11-2018 6:02pm

Are we even at profitability for stuff at the lower end of the market yet? My understanding (albeit perhaps flawed) was that a one bed apartment was the guts of 250K to build.

beauf · 08-11-2018 6:04pm

The issue is when the kids are still living with you at 20+ starts getting a bit claustrophobic then...

M.Cribben · 08-11-2018 6:41pm

Mickiemcfist wrote: »

Sorry I was speaking specifically about Dublin, even more specifically South County. People seem to be willing to pay a premium to live in an established area.

545k for a house in Maynooth does sound absolutely absurd to me.

+ they're adjacent to a halting site. I don't think the agents will be advertising that fact in the brochure though! Maybe people are willing to pay a premium to live in a culturally enriched area?

Villa05 · 08-11-2018 7:54pm

JDD wrote:

I actually find someone wishing for a recession as offensive, just so they can have a reasonably priced weekend away or rent an apartment closer to town. You can be sure they kept their job over the past ten years.

Don"t be offended. Recessions exist to correct mismanagement of an economy. What should happen is the powers that be should reflect and implement policies that support sustainable growth into the future

This appears to be where the problem lies. The authorities appear to think that the solution to a crash caused by excessively high house prices is to implement policies that return house prices to excessive heights.

This can only end one way. As with the last crash, the longer the price increases go on the bigger the crash will be when it comes. An early recession would probably spare much greater hurt later on

I find it deeply offensive that our overpaid politicians are following this course of action to the detriment of society as a whole

phunkadelic · 08-11-2018 8:16pm

Lexi Scarce Explosion wrote: »

They're not about Ireland they're about the OECD/EU.

There's an ESRI paper on this, published in July. The first line of the abstract is "Over the past 30 years, there have been periods of boom and bust, but average household incomes have grown strongly in Ireland".

https://www.google.ie/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.esri.ie/pubs/BP201903.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiC6eObmcXeAhUQAXwKHbCMA0MQFjACegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1Mo7SQha_0XXMDypnHg0Kn

You've no evidence to back up anything you've said do you?

Last I checked, Ireland is part of the OECD. Is it not?
Nice work quoting a paper about the last 30 years. We're not talking the last 30 years though are we? We are talking about the latest 'recovery'.
https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/is-ireland-s-booming-economy-just-a-illusion-1.3444645
There may be slight percentage point increases, but not even close to the increases in house prices and rent.

snotboogie · 08-11-2018 9:59pm

mike_cork wrote: »

The lack of properties to rent in Cork City is scary at the moment. When I go onto Daft.ie for a cursory look at available properties to rent i am shocked at how few are available/how expensive they are/how many views each available property is getting i.e.people desperate to find somewhere.

Absolutely loads in the pipeline though; 800 in Carrigaline, 600 in Glanmire and 200 in Ballincollig all under constructuon. Douglas alone has nearly 1,000 units in the fast track planning, with another two sites with capacity for over 1,000 again on the market. Mahon got planning for 600 units, Glounthane and Sundays Well got planning for 200 units each and the docklands Marquee site sold and has capacity for 1,000 apartments. All of this in a city with a population of just over 200,000. If the economy stays strong and the rampant NIMBYs are kept at bay, the discussion in Cork will start to move away from housing and towards chronic transport congestion.

theboringfox · 08-11-2018 10:17pm

snotboogie wrote: »

Absolutely loads in the pipeline though; 800 in Carrigaline, 600 in Glanmire and 200 in Ballincollig all under constructuon. Douglas alone has nearly 1,000 units in the fast track planning, with another two sites with capacity for over 1,000 again on the market. Mahon got planning for 600 units, Glounthane and Sundays Well got planning for 200 units each and the docklands Marquee site sold and has capacity for 1,000 apartments. All of this in a city with a population of just over 200,000. If the economy stays strong and the rampant NIMBYs are kept at bay, the discussion in Cork will start to move away from housing and towards chronic transport congestion.

Cork is booming because it's allowing development to happen. What Dublin is doing with it's NIMBYism and BANANAs is madness

Samuel T. Cogley · 08-11-2018 10:33pm

Okay what's BANANAs?

tigger123 · 08-11-2018 10:34pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Okay what's BANANAs?

This **** is bananas.

mike_cork · 08-11-2018 10:36pm

snotboogie wrote: »

Absolutely loads in the pipeline though; 800 in Carrigaline, 600 in Glanmire and 200 in Ballincollig all under constructuon. Douglas alone has nearly 1,000 units in the fast track planning, with another two sites with capacity for over 1,000 again on the market. Mahon got planning for 600 units, Glounthane and Sundays Well got planning for 200 units each and the docklands Marquee site sold and has capacity for 1,000 apartments. All of this in a city with a population of just over 200,000. If the economy stays strong and the rampant NIMBYs are kept at bay, the discussion in Cork will start to move away from housing and towards chronic transport congestion.

Great points.
I would add that it would be great to see further apartments/houses being built in the city centre to get more people living/working/spending in the city centre.

As you say the transport situation though is dire and an improvement on this front is badly needed.

AlmightyCushion · 08-11-2018 10:39pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Okay what's BANANAs?

Build anything not anywhere near anything?

theboringfox · 08-11-2018 10:40pm

Samuel T. Cogley wrote: »

Okay what's BANANAs?

Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anyone

beauf · 08-11-2018 10:51pm

theboringfox wrote: »

Cork is booming because it's allowing development to happen. What Dublin is doing with it's NIMBYism and BANANAs is madness

The issue in Dublin is the transport infrastructure can't cope with the new development. The city grinds to a halt in a regular basis.

Amirani · 09-11-2018 12:02am

beauf wrote: »

The issue in Dublin is the transport infrastructure can't cope with the new development. The city grinds to a halt in a regular basis.

That's because the NIMBYs block every transport proposal. Metrolink and overhauls of the bus infrastructure being the latest to fall victim.

beauf · 09-11-2018 2:27am

There's been a lot of daft proposals.

No surprise they are blocked.

Often calls of NIMBY is to drown out any opposition to corruption or bad planning.

Carlos Orange · 09-11-2018 2:48am

Amirani wrote: »

That's because the NIMBYs block every transport proposal. Metrolink and overhauls of the bus infrastructure being the latest to fall victim.

People having an opinion about what happens to where they live. How terrible.

Nobody blocks anything. They object and then some combination of government bodies adjudicate.

Property Market 2018

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