Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

Tyrone212 · 01-04-2021 10:07pm

https://www.rte.ie/archives/2019/0305/1034374-april-snow-showers/

Snow April 1994.
Few places in the north of Ireland escape showers of snow sleet and hail.

Overnight showers of snow, hail or sleet affected most parts of the north of Ireland and the bad weather continued with visibility poor at times.

In 1993 snow fell as late as the month of May.

Tyrone212 · 01-04-2021 10:29pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

In May 4 or 5 years ago I was getting the bus back from Dublin airport first thing. Stopped in Monaghan around 8.15 am and was snowing but wasn't accumulating apart from a bit on cars. When I got home a couple of hours later the lower hills were white but it didn't last. I remember seeing snow 2 other times in May in this past 10 to 12 years. Both times was around 6 to 8am after being up all night drinking at a party. I think there was decent enough "event" for May standards in the 90s.

Edit

Looked back over it and the Monaghan snow was actually April. I'm still sure of the other 2 drunken accounts though haha

01-04-2021 10:37pm

It snowed here in Arklow one evening in June heavy for about 2hrs giving a good covering many moons ago
Cant remember the year but its nearly 40 years ago

Danno · 01-04-2021 10:52pm

RobertKK wrote: »

The latest I saw snow was the first week of May, a prolonged heavy snow shower left everywhere white, but obviously it didn't last.
April is common enough.

There was a heavy snow in May 94 IIRC. Think it was rather late in the month, around 20th or slightly after?

UrbanSprawl · 02-04-2021 1:11am

a shower of hail would be interesting fecking hell the weather is so consistently boring and disappointing after 5 years of climate change same

pauldry · 02-04-2021 1:48am

Yeah we had hail in June about 11 years ago on bank holiday and it was 6c last year it was 27c.

Snowed in 1984 in June or may have been the late 70s

Tyrone212 · 02-04-2021 2:00am

Mad to see this perturbation at T84 in April or any time of the year tbh. P10 has -20 850hPa over Ireland ha

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 2:58am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The 510dam line now touches the north coast on Monday at 6am. With each run it gets progressively closer.

Though the cold air seems to end up coming in, in the evening now unfortunately.

Very cold air on Monday night

Met Office going for 3c Monday.

Further south again!

pauldry · 02-04-2021 9:28am

Shoved a bit to the East in latest GFS. Still wintry but more East and North with lighter showers further West and likely a degree or 2 milder. Ulster still likely to get snow in places though overnight especially.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 9:57am

The latest gfs run shows -11c 850hPa all day Monday for here.

highdef · 02-04-2021 11:25am

A bit a downgrade on the latest GFS from what I can see. The colder air shunted quite a bit east and air pressure is about 4 millibars higher than the previous run, getting to the stage where showers may be less likely to form and if they do, they wouldn't have so much ooomph in them.

Still very cold for the time of year but hopefully today's model does not turn into a trend. Looking forward to see what the next run brings, fingers crossed this morning's run was a warmer outlier.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 11:32am

There is actually a lot of variation of outcomes between each run and each model. Latest GFS run is a bit weird, the low heights are hundreds of miles behind the low 850’s.

-11c 850’s with 535dam? Yeah right.

highdef · 02-04-2021 11:36am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is actually a lot of variation of outcomes between each run and each model. Latest GFS run is a bit weird, the low heights are hundreds of miles behind the low 850’s.

-11c 850’s with 535dam? Yeah right.

Yeah, bit of a strange run alright. Very low temperatures lower down but nothing too crazy much higher up. That combined with higher pressure does not bode well for shower formation although they'd reach ground level as snow but unlikely to be heavy enough to give a covering in all but the highest hills.

Still, it's one run from one model. I've not had time to look at other models as it's far too nice a day to be sitting in front of a computer.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 11:43am

Nope actually Ulster is under the <-10c isotherm for longer on this run. Right from Monday early hours to Tuesday early hours.

It’s the thickness that is a lot higher.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 11:53am

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

There is actually a lot of variation of outcomes between each run and each model. Latest GFS run is a bit weird, the low heights are hundreds of miles behind the low 850’s.

-11c 850’s with 535dam? Yeah right.

The high thickness is because of the warmer upper air (700-500 hPa) that I highlighted yesterday. Don't just look at one level.

giveitholly · 02-04-2021 1:07pm

highdef wrote: »

A bit a downgrade on the latest GFS from what I can see. The colder air shunted quite a bit east and air pressure is about 4 millibars higher than the previous run, getting to the stage where showers may be less likely to form and if they do, they wouldn't have so much ooomph in them.

Still very cold for the time of year but hopefully today's model does not turn into a trend. Looking forward to see what the next run brings, fingers crossed this morning's run was a warmer outlier.

Good,hopefully the downgrades continue

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 1:27pm

Long may any upgrades be... come on in.

RobertKK · 02-04-2021 1:34pm

Danno wrote: »

There was a heavy snow in May 94 IIRC. Think it was rather late in the month, around 20th or slightly after?

It was a while back so maybe then.

nacho libre · 02-04-2021 2:21pm

I remember that snow in early May. I was not sure of the year! I would love to see snow as late as June, not because it would be of much use, rather it would give us something to talk about. I hope the latest GFS is wrong about shunting the upcoming cold spell east. I was looking forward to some beefy snow showers at night. It would be great to see some settling snow by night too!

Cluedo Monopoly · 02-04-2021 2:32pm

You heathens. I would take buckets of snow any day of the week no matter what the month.
Bring it on!

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 2:36pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I remember that snow in early May. I was not sure of the year! I would love to see snow as late as June, not because it would be of much use, rather it would give us something to talk about. I hope the latest GFS is wrong about shunting the upcoming cold spell east. I was looking forward to some beefy snow showers at night. It would be great to see some settling snow by night too!

The actual cold air isn’t shunted east, it’s just the colder air above 850hPa level.

Though it still would be cold enough for snow in this scenario anyway.

Billcarson · 02-04-2021 2:38pm

giveitholly wrote: »

Good,hopefully the downgrades continue

May aswell go the whole hog and see how cold we can get it. What's the point in hoping for downgrades it would still won't be particularly spring like any way.

I know cold weather in April isnt most people's cup of tea but as a weather enthusiast its interesting to see how cold we can get with this upcoming snap or spell.

Anyway Summer isn't too far off............

Captain Snow · 02-04-2021 2:40pm

Buried.......:P

Someone is getting a covering....

daheff · 02-04-2021 2:46pm

nacho libre wrote: »

I remember that snow in early May.

I remember snow in may too. Was in secondary school watching it out the window. Teacher gave me a bollocking for staring out the window instead of listening to her drivel.

Didn't stick for more than a couple of hours though.

That was early to mid 90s

daheff · 02-04-2021 2:48pm

Captain Snow wrote: »

Buried.......:P

Someone is getting a covering....

Name checks out.......

External Association · 02-04-2021 3:13pm

daheff wrote: »

I remember snow in may too. Was in secondary school watching it out the window. Teacher gave me a bollocking for staring out the window instead of listening to her drivel.

Didn't stick for more than a couple of hours though.

That was early to mid 90s

Friday 14 May 1993.

Billcarson · 02-04-2021 3:18pm

There was some snow in early may 79, I was only 5 at the time but I do remember it settled for a while and being outside playing in it, although it wasn't too long before it turned to slush.

Oscar Bravo · 02-04-2021 3:59pm

Just watching the bbc forecast there for Monday. Much much less in the way of showers forecast now.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 4:05pm

There will be a big cap from 700 hPa upwards over Ireland through Monday and Tuesday, so while the air below that will be cold, again we'll be in a scenario of relatively shallow convection and hence reduced precipitation rates, a bit like that spell in early February. The deepest convection will be further east, coinciding with that coldest upper pool.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 4:16pm

Well I'll be watching the next model run and concentrating on my own region to see what is going on here, as we're further north and east.

I seriously doubt that massive temperature gradient will yield nothing..

pauldry · 02-04-2021 4:59pm

West and South getting nothing from this. Ulster mainly. The line of real cold misses all Republic except parts of Ulster and North Leinster.

Still there will probably be hail like the last cold spell. That chart with the pink for snow is only the showers and not snow cover. Granted there may be snow mixed with the rain in the Northwest but more hail and sleet in other areas.

Met Eireann said this morning that lying snow is very unlikely below high ground.

ninebeanrows · 02-04-2021 5:14pm

It does appear recent output has placed that really unstable cold air to our east for Monday /Tuesday

A change from model output a few days ago that had this moving over us.

So the risk of big beefy wintry showers has decreased

gfs-13-72.png?12

ninebeanrows · 02-04-2021 5:17pm

Yesterday's output had this running over us. We can't even get a proper Easter cold shot :P

YESTERDAYS RUN FOR MONDAY

gfs-13-96.png?12

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 5:24pm

ninebeanrows wrote: »

It does appear recent output has placed that really unstable cold air to our east for Monday /Tuesday

A change from model output a few days ago that had this moving over us.

So the risk of big beefy wintry showers has decreased

It’s a very abrupt change at the last minute so it could easily turn back.

Tyrone212 · 02-04-2021 5:29pm

UKMO is further west than GFS. Not resolved yet but a pity the GFS has shifted it East somewhat.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 5:43pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Well I'll be watching the next model run and concentrating on my own region to see what is going on here, as we're further north and east.

I seriously doubt that massive temperature gradient will yield nothing..

I didn't say it would yield nothing, only that we (including you) won't be getting the heaviest precip.

Oneiric 3 · 02-04-2021 5:44pm

I remember snow in May too, but it was more like in 95 or 96. I remember that period as I was living in a different part of town at the time. It was very sunny and quite warm yet we had brief fluffy snow showers (oft while the sun was shining!) during the afternoon. A sight to behold.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 5:45pm

Tyrone212 wrote: »

UKMO is further west than GFS. Not resolved yet but a pity the GFS has shifted it East somewhat.

The ECM and ICON were showing that eastern focus yesterday so the GFS is now picking up on it too.

Note too that 850 hPa will be around 200 m higher than it was back in the February event, so the same actual altitude amsl on Monday will be around 2 degrees warmer than at 850 hPa (-7 or -8)

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 5:46pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

I didn't say it would yield nothing, only that we (including you) won't be getting the heaviest precip.

Well maybe just maybe I’ll luck out.. I’ll just take a positive attitude anyway..

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 5:48pm

The weird thing about the GFS is that the lowest thickness values are over NE Scotland and Eastern GB but the coldest uppers are in the west of Ulster and NW Scotland?

850hPa actually gets down to -12c on this run.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 5:50pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Well maybe just maybe I’ll luck out.. I’ll just take a positive attitude anyway..

Maybe, but a positive or negative attitude won't make any bit of difference to what anyone will get. If only it did...

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 5:52pm

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Maybe, but a positive or negative attitude won't make any bit of difference to what anyone will get. If only it did...

I understand your perspective... however, the Synoptics aside from the thickness are still very good.

-10c 850’s for 36 hours up here and as low as -12c that’s pretty good

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 5:52pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

The weird thing about the GFS is that the lowest thickness values are over NE Scotland and Eastern GB but the coldest uppers are in the west of Ulster and NW Scotland?

850hPa actually gets down to -12c on this run.

That's because there is no cap (above 700 hPa) over Scotland but there is further west. "Uppers" is a misleading term because it shouldn't only refer to 850 hPa. Levels above that are equally important too but rarely considered.

Gaoth Laidir · 02-04-2021 5:54pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I understand your perspective... however, the Synoptics aside from the thickness are still very good.

-10c 850’s for 48 hours up here and as low as -12c that’s pretty good

Yes, of course it is, but preferably one or two months ago. At this time of the year it's just a nuisance, imo anyway.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 5:59pm

Anyway... let’s look at the actual synoptic situation. This is for the GFS.

I am showing Eglinton airport, my nearest airport.

Lowest 850hPa is -12c, thickness is 517dam which is a rise but still very low. We are under -10c 850hPa or lower for 36 hours which is a pretty good run.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=Egae&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

You can put in your local airport for Synoptics.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 6:00pm

I am not seeing a cap in this sounding:

ninebeanrows · 02-04-2021 6:01pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Anyway... let’s look at the actual synoptic situation. This is for the GFS.

I am showing Eglinton airport, my nearest airport.

Lowest 850hPa is -12c, thickness is 517dam which is a rise but still very low. We are under -10c 850hPa or lower for 36 hours which is a pretty good run.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=Egae&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&submit=submit

You can put in your local airport for Synoptics.

Unfortunately Owen those big juicy clouds are going be sliced around 700hPa so we won't get that vigorous convection for too long, the north might get a swipe.

I'm sure most of us will see some flakes falling but unless things change back we will not be seeing widespread lying snow from this.

Nqp15hhu · 02-04-2021 6:08pm

ninebeanrows wrote: »

Unfortunately Owen those big juicy clouds are going be sliced around 700hPa so we won't get that vigorous convection for too long, the north might get a swipe.

I'm sure most of us will see some flakes falling but unless things change back we will not be seeing widespread lying snow from this.

I imagine any snow showers in Scotland will make their way down here. Can’t see them breaking up that quickly. But we’ll see.

North of Scotland is <200 miles.

Oneiric 3 · 02-04-2021 6:11pm

When I hear about 'capped convection' I just assume that shower clouds are going to be flattened and spread out, thus lasting longer and much lighter. The ultimate misery bringer in set ups like this (many such examples last winter!) I'll be happy enough if we see some good sunshine like today and that those misery bringing shower clouds just disappear altogether.

Oneiric 3 · 02-04-2021 6:15pm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

I imagine any snow showers in Scotland will make their way down here. Can’t see them breaking up that quickly. But we’ll see.

North of Scotland is <200 miles.

You haven't taken into account the legendary 'Scotland Shadow'.

Much colder, wintry showers, some of snow Easter Sunday 2021 onward

Comments