2020 officially saw a record number of $1 billion weather and climate disasters.

Akrasia wrote: »

No, it was an illustration of the bell curve not a plot of actual changes

Well it's a very misleading and exaggerated illustration. It obviously conveniently gives the false impression that climate change is worse than it is. A 1-sigma increase is nonsense. I know it's not your graph but you posted it and hence endorse it.

That graph is misleading in more ways than one. Cold extremes, while getting a fraction less frequent, are not any less extreme... and as we seen just last winter, when extreme cold does occur, this too is seized upon by climate alarmists as proof that the climate is warming. There is no scientific nuance to this, it is just plain gas lighting.

during the break I’ve been thinking more about this. You laughed at the idea of a 1 sigma shift to the right, but over the 20th century we saw temperatures at the end consistently at 3 sigma if we were to consider the global average temperature going back the past few thousand years, and since the 21st century started, we’ve been moving beyond 3 sigma to 4 sigma

year on year natural variability fluctuates on the order of tenths of a degree plus or minus, we’re at 1.1 degrees above the preindustrial average and projections for climate change are to double or triple this again

a 1 sigma shift, where extreme hot weather is only 34% more likely is our best case scenario, what we’re going to see, as the world continues to heat up is the 1000 year event happening every 10 years, and later every 5 years (especially heatwaves) until it’s just ‘normal’ weather and the new extremes are unthinkable bad

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/heat-wave-pacific-northwest-could-soon-repeat-due-climate-change-research-2021-07-07/

How the feck do you put text in quotes in this new shíthole of a website layout?!

Well it’s hardly going to be peer reviewed in less than a week is it. The paper has not been peer reviewed but it is based on peer reviewed methodology

if I use pythagoras’ Theorem to calculate something, that calculation can be trusted if it’s performed by an expert because the methodology is proven

but regardless, you keep on pretending that this is normal if it makes you feel better

The editing features with this new layout are terrible.

Looking at the graph Judith Curry took apart the narrative they are trying to build, it is not supported by historical analysis.

These scientists doing attribution studies for the last decade have built up the statistical datasets and models which have been peer reviewed.

https://ascmo.copernicus.org/articles/6/177/2020/

Plugging in the data from the most recent heatwaves allows them to use this methodology to get an estimate of the probability of these events. You don't get to just dismiss them because you don't like their answer, you need to show me the scientific paper that shows their methodology is wrong.

The scientists are very confident that this event is virtually impossible without climate change. What they are not certain about, is whether this is an extreme 1 in a thousand year event based on the Current climate (including the warming from climate change) or if it is something that is going to become part of a new climate pattern. Only time will tell which one this is, but the central point is, that even if it was a freak event, it is more extreme now than it would have been before 2020

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https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/western-north-american-extreme-heat-virtually-impossible-without-human-caused-climate-change/

[quote]Main findings

• Based on observations and modeling, the occurrence of a heatwave with maximum daily temperatures (TXx) as observed in the area 45–52 ºN, 119–123 ºW, was virtually impossible without human-caused climate change.
• The observed temperatures were so extreme that they lie far outside the range of historically observed temperatures. This makes it hard to quantify with confidence how rare the event was. In the most realistic statistical analysis the event is estimated to be about a 1 in 1000 year event in today’s climate.
• There are two possible sources of this extreme jump in peak temperatures. The first is that this is a very low probability event, even in the current climate which already includes about 1.2°C of global warming — the statistical equivalent of really bad luck, albeit aggravated by climate change. The second option is that nonlinear interactions in the climate have substantially increased the probability of such extreme heat, much beyond the gradual increase in heat extremes that has been observed up to now. We need to investigate the second possibility further, although we note the climate models do not show it. All numbers below assume that the heatwave was a very low probability event that was not caused by new nonlinearities.
• With this assumption and combining the results from the analysis of climate models and weather observations, an event, defined as daily maximum temperatures (TXx) in the heatwave region, as rare as 1 in a 1000 years would have been at least 150 times rarer without human-induced climate change.
• Also, this heatwave was about 2°C hotter than it would have been if it had occurred at the beginning of the industrial revolution (when global mean temperatures were 1.2°C cooler than today).
• Looking into the future, in a world with 2°C of global warming (0.8°C warmer than today which at current emission levels would be reached as early as the 2040s), this event would have been another degree hotter. An event like this – currently estimated to occur only once every 1000 years, would occur roughly every 5 to 10 years in that future world with 2°C of global warming.

[/quote]

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If scientists warn 'If we increase CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere we're going to see an increase global average temperatures and in extreme hot weather events, and then we increase CO2 concentrations by 50% above the naturally stable concentration, and then global average temperatures increase to the hottest they have been in at least 15000 within a generation, and we see extreme heat records being absolutely smashed around the world year on year on year....

It's not the scientists who don't have a clue, it's the people who think ECS is 1c when we've already surpassed this without approaching a doubling of CO2 reaching equilibrium

And this is at a time when the earth should be in a slight cooling phase

That is unsupported on your part and she told us why back in 2017.

I know what she said. She took her football and went home. A proper scientist submits to peer review. A crank and a contrarian who has a position that she cannot defend with evidence, accuses all of the other scientists of being in a conspiracy to hide the real science

The part you have bolded is the most hypocritical thing about it. She left academia so she could operate her own blog where she posts her own personal and political opinions, trading off her previous status as a publishing scientist, to give her political beliefs more weight then they are worth as a blogger.

She also doesn't have to report any conflicts of interest now that she's not a publishing scientist anymore

The floods were the result of evaporation condensing into rain

why was there so much rain? Because there was a lot of moisture in the air

warmer air holds more moisture than colder air

The floods in Germany obliterated some rainfall records 154mm of rain in 24 hours versus the previous record of 95mm

the jet stream has always been there, what else has changed?

Lads, this is getting pretty weak now. Entire villages washed away in Germany in freak flash floods, and your response is 'but lots of other villages didnt get washed away'

I mean, it's on a par with downplaying a school shooting by pointing at the children who didn't get shot...

Elbe 2002 flooding

Give it a rest. Lack of dredging and urbanisation didn't cause 2 months of rainfall to fall in a single day in an area that has never experienced rainfall of that intensity since records began

Does the sheer magnitude of the rainfall that fell during those storms factor anywhere in your handwaving/eh I mean 'analysis'

The reason for the high death toll is because the rain fell so fast that people were taken by surprise.

------------------------quote: To describe the events of recent days as a 100-year flood would be an understatement, said Uwe Kirsche, a spokesman for the German Weather Service, calling it a flood the likes of which had not been seen in perhaps a millennium.

“With these small rivers, they have never experienced anything like that,” Mr. Kirsche said. “Nobody could prepare because no one expected something like this.”

On Tuesday Felix Dietsch, a meteorologist for the German Weather Service, went on YouTube to warn that some areas of southwest Germany could receive previously unimaginable volumes of rain. Up to 70 liters, or more than 18 gallons, of water could pour down on an area of one square meter within a few hours, he warned.

https://www.indiarightnownews.com/german-floods-raise-the-bar-on-extreme-weather-events/

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It's called weather.

Really getting sick and tired of you incapable of thinking alarmists seizing on every out of the ordinary weather event and calling it climate. You literally have no clue what you are talking about. If warmer air holds more water, how is it that much of western Europe, including most of Germany, we're much below average temps around the time those storms began?

1.png (694×520) (ibb.co)

"Scientists will need more time to assess the extent to which human emissions made this storm more likely, but the record downpour is in keeping with broader global trends". (from the Guardian, can't be arsed posting the link)

This is an interesting comment. Scientists need more time to 'assess the extent', yet their minds are already made up?

'More time' = more money.

Same continent, late spring/early summer 1970, when the global climate was in a particularly cool state:

Romanian Floods – 1970 – Devastating Disasters

Over 200 people died.

I hold no respect for those that seek to capitalise (literally) from the deaths of those people in the US earlier this summer and Germany this time around.