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Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

1…157158160162163…203

Comments

  • #7952
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Reselling these homes will not qualify for help to sell
    The house is no longer brand new
    The property market is significantly weaker than when most of these properties were bought.

    Negative Equity

    Can you prove this? So by your calcs ..These houses have dropped by at least 10% (First time buyers deposit) + the 30k from the First time buyers scheme. Can you show me one property in this category?


  • #7953
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    KennisWhale wrote: »
    I do not think we can say that we have had the covid event as of yet considering the government and central banks are still supporting the economy and markets. Until restrictions are eased and accompanying economic supports are wound down, the covid shock will be delayed.

    In the quarter that everything is unfrozen we will start to see the fallout in the economy, which will only then start to affect the housing market, then a couple quarters later we will see the property market data. At this stage, best guess is Q2 2021 (April, 2021, at the start of the new tourism season) when the economy is unfrozen which means people are getting back to their jobs and will find out if they can still be paid the same amount / given the same number of hours, if they are even still needed by their company. The covid impact on housing would start to show in the quarterly reports after this (so Q3 reports onwards).

    We may not have had the fallout yet but the event is definitely here just try and go to for a pint and you will see :) .. You could be right but I still think it is 12 months away due to the budget keeping money in peoples pockets


  • #7954
    donnaille
    Registered Users Posts: 247 ✭✭donnaille


    dor843088 wrote: »
    Reselling these homes will not qualify for help to sell - True
    The house is no longer brand new - True
    The property market is significantly weaker than when most of these properties were bought. - too early to tell, some of these properties were bought today/yesterday/last week

    Negative Equity

    Responses in the quoted text, but main thing to highlight - this isn't negative equity. Negative equity is when the mortgage on the property is greater than the value of the property.


  • #7955
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Can you prove this? So by your calcs ..These houses have dropped by at least 10% (First time buyers deposit) + the 30k from the First time buyers scheme. Can you show me one property in this category?

    https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html


  • #7956
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    donnaille wrote: »
    Responses in the quoted text, but main thing to highlight - this isn't negative equity. Negative equity is when the mortgage on the property is greater than the value of the property.

    I know all too well what negative equity is believe me. Buying a brand new home in a seriously weakening market with a help to sell grant that will not be there on resale ? This is basically how to get yourself into negative equity 101.


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  • #7957
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    Shoden wrote: »
    Here's an interesting video on the subject just posted by Shane Fleming: https://youtu.be/H_rSohgB6JU

    watched this thank you. Very interesting insights provided in what i thought was an objective manner.


  • #7958
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    dor843088 wrote: »

    I know all too well what negative equity is believe me. Buying a brand new home in a seriously weakening market with a help to sell grant that will not be there on resale ? This is basically how to get yourself into negative equity 101.

    FTB competes with STB and other buyers, who are not eligible for HTB grants.
    It makes no sense that resale properties are 30K lower.
    If new house cost 330K, and resale price is 300K, I'm confident non-HTB grant buyers would choose the second one, no point to compete for same quality more expensive ones.


  • #7959
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Marius34 wrote: »
    FTB competes with STB and other buyers, who are not eligible for HTB grants.
    It makes no sense that resale properties are 30K lower.
    If new house cost 330K, and resale price is 300K, I'm confident non-HTB grant buyers would choose the second one, no point to compete for same quality more expensive ones.

    First time buyers are the overwhelming majority of buyers in new developments. In fact they are the majority of mortgages drawn down full stop. Buildings do not remain static in value they depreciate over time. The land beneath it on the other hand is different. All other things being equal a second hand house is worth less than a brand new one . And that's before you remove a 30k grant to buy the new one.


  • #7960
    poker--addict
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,763 ✭✭✭poker--addict


    Hubertj wrote: »
    watched this thank you. Very interesting insights provided in what i thought was an objective manner.

    I am not sure i see this the same way, and I am all for decreases.

    Looking at price changes seems flawed - most people and agents start ambitious with their asking price, so surely the natural tendency is for asking price changes on the whole to average out as a downward trend, even in a solid marketplace? I read nothing into a -2% reduction in asking price changes.

    The very fact that there are still loads of properties still increasing their asking price is a bigger indicator to me that upward pressure remains. I would imagine asking price increases would reduce to practically zero in a bear enviroment.

    To be fair, he does explain it is flawed after showing loads of them :D

    😎



  • #7961
    Hubertj
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,000 ✭✭✭Hubertj


    poker--addict wrote: »
    I am not sure i see this the same way, and I am all for decreases.

    Looking at price changes seems flawed - most people and agents start ambitious with their asking price, so surely the natural tendency is for asking price changes on the whole to average out as a downward trend, even in a solid marketplace? I read nothing into a -2% reduction in asking price changes.

    The very fact that there are still loads of properties still increasing their asking price is a bigger indicator to me that upward pressure remains. I would imagine asking price increases would reduce to practically zero in a bear enviroment.

    To be fair, he does explain it is flawed after showing loads of them :D

    yes thats what i meant. I thought he explained how "avergae prices" and "asking prices" are probably not the best metrics etc.
    Good to get some clarity after trying to understand some of the stuff that gets posted in here.


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  • #7962
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    dor843088 wrote: »
    First time buyers are the overwhelming majority of buyers in new developments. In fact they are the majority of mortgages drawn down full stop. Buildings do not remain static in value they depreciate over time. The land beneath it on the other hand is different. All other things being equal a second hand house is worth less than a brand new one . And that's before you remove a 30k grant to buy the new one.

    No, it's only around half of New build sales goes to Help-to-Buy buyers
    Don't forget cash buyers as well.
    And I'm not talking about old houses, I'm talking about recent build's in new estates, as you spoke that it loose 30k in value after it is bought.


  • #7963
    sanfranbest
    Registered Users Posts: 49 ✭sanfranbest


    Shoden wrote: »
    Here's an interesting video on the subject just posted by Shane Fleming: https://youtu.be/H_rSohgB6JU

    Shane Fleming is an experienced EA,
    Watch his video, very informative.


  • #7964
    Springy Turf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 173 ✭✭Springy Turf


    For those quoting statistics please quote your source (lots of posters). And advice for everyone else including myself - disregard any stats that are trotted out without a source.


  • #7965
    combat14
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,272 ✭✭✭combat14


    the good news is that there wont be a vaccine for all in the eu till 2022 .. so we all can keep saving vast sums of money during lockdown to perpetuate the high rents and ever increasing irish property prices that never fall :)

    I'm sure some here will be delighted ....

    2022 before a Covid vaccine is available to all in EU

    https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/1027/1174213-eu-covid-vaccine/


  • #7966
    markjbloggs
    Registered Users Posts: 293 ✭✭markjbloggs


    There will not be sufficient doses of a coronavirus vaccine to cover the wider EU population before 2022, officials said today in an internal meeting.

    First line of that RTE 2022 report, pathetic journalism. Awful stuff


  • #7967
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    markjbloggs wrote: »
    There will not be sufficient doses of a coronavirus vaccine to cover the wider EU population before 2022, officials said today in an internal meeting.

    First line of that RTE 2022 report, pathetic journalism. Awful stuff

    That's perfectly fine, there don't need to be.


  • #7968
    cubatahavana
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 991 ✭✭✭cubatahavana


    cnocbui wrote: »
    That's perfectly fine, there don't need to be.

    Exactly, let the most vulnerable have it first. I’d say citizens over 65 first.


  • #7969
    silver2020
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,045 ✭✭✭silver2020


    dor843088 wrote: »

    I know all too well what negative equity is believe me. Buying a brand new home in a seriously weakening market with a help to sell grant that will not be there on resale ? This is basically how to get yourself into negative equity 101.

    Maybe because you have experienced negative equity, you have a one sided view

    I bought a car in March - it was in negative equity the minute I drove it out the garage.

    Homes are long term purchases.

    Here's a fact.

    If you bought in 2005/2006 and got a tracker mortgage of less than 1.25% and the extended interest tax relief, you will have spent substantially less over 30 years than someone buying the EXACT same property 30% lower in 2012 who did not get max tax relief and could not get a tracker.


    A 300.000 mortgage will cost 1250 fixed for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 year the balance will be 225,000.

    Or sit out and spend 20k a year rent?

    I bought an investment property earlier this month, I'm looking for another couple over the next few months. I don't fear temporary ups and downs, but there is nothing suggesting any type of deep drop (I bought my first property 32 years ago, so seen many ups and downs)


  • #7970
    cnocbui
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,110 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    cubatahavana wrote: »
    Exactly, let the most vulnerable have it first. I’d say citizens over 65 first.

    That wasn't quite what I meant. I meant you only really need enough to cover high urban density areas of Europe and enough people to get herd immunity, but if it's safe for the vulnerable, that approach would work too.


  • #7971
    HopsAndJumps
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 310 ✭✭HopsAndJumps


    cnocbui wrote: »
    That wasn't quite what I meant. I meant you only really need enough to cover high urban density areas of Europe and enough people to get herd immunity, but if it's safe for the vulnerable, that approach would work too.

    Most of the covid vaccines are targeting an efficacy of 50%-60%.

    Even if the old and vulnerable are all vaccinated, 50%-40% of them can still catch the virus.

    We won't be to a back to normal.situation for a while though things will get better. (I hope/need)


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  • #7972
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    folks, there's a dedicated forum for the discussion of Coronavirus (COVID-19) if you'd like to continue that discussion.


  • #7973
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    silver2020 wrote: »
    Maybe because you have experienced negative equity, you have a one sided view

    I bought a car in March - it was in negative equity the minute I drove it out the garage.

    Homes are long term purchases.

    Here's a fact.

    If you bought in 2005/2006 and got a tracker mortgage of less than 1.25% and the extended interest tax relief, you will have spent substantially less over 30 years than someone buying the EXACT same property 30% lower in 2012 who did not get max tax relief and could not get a tracker.


    A 300.000 mortgage will cost 1250 fixed for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 year the balance will be 225,000.

    Or sit out and spend 20k a year rent?

    I bought an investment property earlier this month, I'm looking for another couple over the next few months. I don't fear temporary ups and downs, but there is nothing suggesting any type of deep drop (I bought my first property 32 years ago, so seen many ups and downs)

    Or maybe because I have experienced negative and positive equity I have a balanced view and dont think that no matter what happens property prices never ever go down. From reading some poster in this forum you would think that property is just on a ratchet system to the moon.


  • #7974
    Mad_maxx
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,503 ✭✭✭✭Mad_maxx


    silver2020 wrote: »
    Maybe because you have experienced negative equity, you have a one sided view

    I bought a car in March - it was in negative equity the minute I drove it out the garage.

    Homes are long term purchases.

    Here's a fact.

    If you bought in 2005/2006 and got a tracker mortgage of less than 1.25% and the extended interest tax relief, you will have spent substantially less over 30 years than someone buying the EXACT same property 30% lower in 2012 who did not get max tax relief and could not get a tracker.


    A 300.000 mortgage will cost 1250 fixed for the next 10 years. At the end of 10 year the balance will be 225,000.

    Or sit out and spend 20k a year rent?

    I bought an investment property earlier this month, I'm looking for another couple over the next few months. I don't fear temporary ups and downs, but there is nothing suggesting any type of deep drop (I bought my first property 32 years ago, so seen many ups and downs)

    houses declined in price by more than 55% between 2006 and 2012


  • #7975
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,230 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    jill_valentine wrote: »
    You're also assuming they haven't lived anywhere, paid any bills, and worked in unbroken employment in that time. So I would say quite unrealistic, yes.

    In the real world, someone who left college ten years ago will have almost certainly been let go or had their employer go bust at least once and worked at least one zero hours contract in that time, a period when they would have been glad to get 200 a week, never mind save it.

    For perspective, ten years ago I was working in a video game shop sifting through CVs from engineers and chemists. I got a quote for car insurance around the same time for 7 grand a year, and we all spent quite a lot of time in the work kitchen when we were off because the tea and bread was free.

    100k savings for a post 2007 thirty year old is fantasy land. Under present conditions most people in that age group will have their first shot at home ownership when their parents die.




    The obvious question is then what was your choice regarding the car? Did you insure it for 7k?


    People convince themselves that they *need* things that just make their life more comfortable. 7k on car insurance probably equates to well over 10k a year running costs on a car. Spending that to be able to drive a few minutes down the road to work on your off days to eat free bread seems the height of madness to me


  • #7976
    Graham
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,642 Mod ✭✭✭✭Graham


    Mod Note

    folks, a friendly reminder this is the Accommodation & Property forum.

    If you'd like to discuss the price of Avocado Toast, Phones, Car Insurance or Nikes, please start a new thread in the appropriate forum.


  • #7977
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff


  • #7978
    Thierry12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 979 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Not surprised

    Most people using those schemes are doing jobs which don't exist anymore over this lockdown farce


  • #7979
    dor843088
    Registered Users Posts: 1,171 ✭✭✭dor843088


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    Not surprised

    Most people using those schemes are doing jobs which don't exist anymore over this lockdown farce

    Terrifying reading if you're a developer with a lot of units to shift.


  • #7980
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    I observe that people tend to spend a sizeable amount on income on crap. If you think it's not realistic to save it then that is your opinion. I know that it is not impossible. A reasonable cross section of society in their 20's could save 200 quid a week. You wouldn't need to be on 80k a year to do so.

    If you went to college then you probably survived on very little until you were say 22. If you stretched out that living like a student for say 2 years while working on a fairly low paid job, you would still be easily able to save 200 a week. No?

    Not sure why you seem to think that prepay phones work out as cheaper than billpay btw.

    New mortgage about to be drawn down in the next few weeks so that will be a necessary expense but

    :eek:Reading through the threads here had me curious to know how much money I spend in a year that I dont actually need to spend. Basically booze, gadgets, fags, phone, clothes, eating out, nice car, and holidays, lots of holidays and weekends away.

    It frightened the life out of me when I totaled it up.
    Well over €30K. Of course it wont be near that in 2020 because most of those things are not even possible in 2020.
    But i think if I took only one or two holidays a year, cut down on the booze and smokes and changed my car to a more sensible one I could get that to about a quarter of it and not really notice the cut back.

    Then I added up all the necessary things I have to spend money on. Mortgage, electricity, car tax, insurance, property tax, etc and it came to just over €15k.

    But I am going to have a major blowout when the virus is gone. Im going to eat out twice a week, go on a big foreign holiday and go to the pub every night. Just to get 2020 out of my system. :)

    I should have bought a bigger house :)


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  • #7981
    TheSheriff
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,108 ✭✭✭TheSheriff


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Demand from those on generally lower incomes has fallen off a cliff..........

    I would have assumed this is the case since last March. To be expected.


  • #7982
    jill_valentine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,090 ✭✭✭jill_valentine


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html

    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    RI want you to confirm you're not on the Covid subsidy (something I had a nightmare with recently) so even if you have managed to stay in employment, you may have found yourself suddenly snookered. It's a LOT of work to apply for, and they want 12 months of statements so any blips will show up for the next year.


  • #7983
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Available to those earning 75k (joint) or less sure a lot of these people have lost their jobs or are on PUP so they could not get a mortgage even with the grant due to banks not touching anyone who is not working or on PUP


  • #7984
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    fliball123 wrote: »
    We may not have had the fallout yet but the event is definitely here just try and go to for a pint and you will see :) .. You could be right but I still think it is 12 months away due to the budget keeping money in peoples pockets

    And how many people have stopped paying their mortgages. As we know non payers dont get evicted very easily in this country. But surely this problem cant be swept under the carpet over the long term.


  • #7985
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    Deleted User wrote: »
    And how many people have stopped paying their mortgages. As we know non payers dont get evicted very easily in this country. But surely this problem cant be swept under the carpet over the long term.

    I have seen some people still getting away with it after the last crash not paying their mortgage and there is not one political party who will stand by during a pandemic and let banks repossess family homes in any great velocity the blow back would be huge from the lefties. I agree it is a problem but like the high rates of welfare and Public sector pay and pensions what is given is very hard to take away


  • #7986
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    https://investorrelations.bankofireland.com/app/uploads/Q3_IMS_27.10.2020-FV-1.pdf

    Bank of Ireland Q3 reporting not showing a deterioration in rates of default. 6k mortgages on payment breaks and banks capital position looks strong.


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  • #7987
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    Timing belt wrote: »
    https://investorrelations.bankofireland.com/app/uploads/Q3_IMS_27.10.2020-FV-1.pdf

    Bank of Ireland Q3 reporting not showing a deterioration in rates of default. 6k mortgages on payment breaks and banks capital position looks strong.

    6000 mortgages on payment breaks may be OK but also may a problem. Will everyone get their jobs back or back to full hours or pay.


  • #7988
    Ursabear
    Registered Users Posts: 84 ✭✭Ursabear


    Prime Dublin residential rents down 12% https://www.businessworld.ie/property-news/Prime-Dublin-residential-rents-down-12-since-March-574715.html


  • #7989
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    The latest MSCI/SCSI Property Index shows that the value of retail properties on Grafton Street have fallen 18% since March while those on Henry Street have dropped 19%.

    Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/property-values-on-irelands-top-retail-streets-slump-by-a-fifth-39675329.html


  • #7990
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Q3 2020 DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET REVIEW from Owen Reilly:

    Owen Reilly have released their Q3 transactional analysis on the Dublin residential market in Q3 2020:

    Key findings:

    - Selling prices 1.2% below asking prices

    - Sales transactions up 21% compared to Q2

    - 65% of our buyers are owner occupiers

    - 42% of our sellers are landlords exiting the market

    - Rents have fallen 11.7% since March

    Link to report here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q3-2020-dublin-residential-market-review/


  • #7991
    Marius34
    Registered Users Posts: 1,173 ✭✭✭Marius34


    dor843088 wrote: »
    https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40071143.html



    Rebuilding Ireland loans drop 50% . Demand has fallen off a cliff

    Mortgage approvals for the month of September, is well above average pre-crisis levels.


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  • #7992
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Q3 2020 DUBLIN RESIDENTIAL MARKET REVIEW from Owen Reilly:

    Owen Reilly have released their Q3 transactional analysis on the Dublin residential market in Q3 2020:

    Key findings:

    - Selling prices 1.2% below asking prices

    - Sales transactions up 21% compared to Q2

    - 65% of our buyers are owner occupiers

    - 42% of our sellers are landlords exiting the market

    - Rents have fallen 11.7% since March

    Link to report here: https://www.owenreilly.ie/marketintelligence/q3-2020-dublin-residential-market-review/

    The landlord exodus gathers pace.
    I think any that missed that window to sell are stuck now until after Christmas.
    If they miss that window they might be stuck forever :)


  • #7993
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    The landlord exodus gathers pace.
    I think any that missed that window to sell are stuck now until after Christmas.
    If they miss that window they might be stuck forever :)

    Why are they stuck till after xmas?


  • #7994
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    fliball123 wrote: »
    Why are they stuck till after xmas?


    Well I doubt sales are going to be business as usual during level 5.
    Then you have Christmas.Notice periods are going to be all over the place too.


  • #7995
    fliball123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,506 ✭✭✭fliball123


    JimmyVik wrote: »
    Well I doubt sales are going to be business as usual during level 5.
    Then you have Christmas.Notice periods are going to be all over the place too.


    They didn't stop the last time there was a lockdown I know the number of properties that sold during the last lockdown was way down but there were still properties moving. There are still properties being put on the market and there is still viewings going on for example viewing today and I rang and they asked me what time I could make it over as they are staggering the viewings

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-rosemount-estate-dundrum-dublin-14/4459856

    Solicitors and banks are still open and working so there will still be people doing business with regard to property but they will be down at the same level as the last lockdown.


  • #7996
    brisan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,242 ✭✭✭brisan


    Roberto_gas wrote: »
    Until demand dies nothing is going to change ! Right now demand is what is keeping the market stable....Supply is never going to improve !

    How can demand decrease ?

    1) Job lossed and mass emigration like 2010 - Dont know where people will go as covid is a different ball game
    2) Worldwide depression resulting in ppl losing jobs etc - We are possibly in one, but until gov keep giving out doles bailouts etc nothing is going to change

    A big trigger can only change things in next one year ! Until then i dont see any major drops in prices !

    We will have to wait for
    A) A vaccine and things will go back to normal with some economic scarring
    B )Government switches of life support (which it will have to do at some point ) and then the dung will hit the fan


  • #7997
    JimmyVik
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,367 ✭✭✭JimmyVik


    fliball123 wrote: »
    They didn't stop the last time there was a lockdown I know the number of properties that sold during the last lockdown was way down but there were still properties moving. There are still properties being put on the market and there is still viewings going on for example viewing today and I rang and they asked me what time I could make it over as they are staggering the viewings

    https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/9-rosemount-estate-dundrum-dublin-14/4459856

    Solicitors and banks are still open and working so there will still be people doing business with regard to property but they will be down at the same level as the last lockdown.


    Actually, they did slow down a hell of a lot last time.
    I think level 5 will effect viewings and preparations for sale.
    Maybe it wont, but i know what i would put my money on.


  • #7998
    Donald Trump
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 20,230 ✭✭✭✭Donald Trump


    Timing belt wrote: »
    https://investorrelations.bankofireland.com/app/uploads/Q3_IMS_27.10.2020-FV-1.pdf

    Bank of Ireland Q3 reporting not showing a deterioration in rates of default. 6k mortgages on payment breaks and banks capital position looks strong.




    Sure Anglo only had a temporary liquidity problem (said tongue-in-cheek)


    1 in 25 mortgages were not being paid, but were not counted as being in default because they were on a break. The mortgaged amounts of those on the break would have been slightly higher on average than the average across the portfolio. Some of them could probably have been continued to be paid, but some might not.



    The saving grace for the banks this time around, at least initially, compared to the last crash is that the borrower will absorb the first losses from any writedown in values. No 110% mortgages. That in itself might prevent the snowball effect that we saw last time around.


  • #7999
    PropQueries
    Registered Users Posts: 2,203 ✭✭✭PropQueries


    Donald Trump wrote: »
    Sure Anglo only had a temporary liquidity problem (said tongue-in-cheek)


    1 in 25 mortgages were not being paid, but were not counted as being in default because they were on a break. The mortgaged amounts of those on the break would have been slightly higher on average than the average across the portfolio. Some of them could probably have been continued to be paid, but some might not.



    The saving grace for the banks this time around, at least initially, compared to the last crash is that the borrower will absorb the first losses from any writedown in values. No 110% mortgages. That in itself might prevent the snowball effect that we saw last time around.

    Don't be so sure. Those boom time loans are still impacting on the banks and many still need to be resolved. Especially those interest only loans that are maturing shortly.

    "PTSB signalled in February that it was assessing risks associated with thousands of buy-to-let mortgages, amounting to €2.5 billion, that were handed out before the crash and were issued on interest-only terms until the loans matured.

    After the transaction, PTSB will continue to have €900 million of interest-only buy-to-let loans on its balance sheet. Mr Crowley said that, unlike the loans being sold, the loans being kept were typically to customers who had other business with the bank."

    The question is how do they handle these loans once they mature as none of the capital has been paid off? Probably another sale to some fund but what they get for them (even if performing) will depend on the direction of the property market over the next 12-24 months. They got very very lucky with this weeks sale IMO.

    Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ptsb-plays-down-ulster-bank-talk-as-it-sells-1-4bn-of-loans-1.4392203


  • #8000
    Timing belt
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,567 ✭✭✭Timing belt


    PropQueries wrote: »
    Don't be so sure. Those boom time loans are still impacting on the banks and many still need to be resolved. Especially those interest only loans that are maturing shortly.

    "PTSB signalled in February that it was assessing risks associated with thousands of buy-to-let mortgages, amounting to €2.5 billion, that were handed out before the crash and were issued on interest-only terms until the loans matured.

    After the transaction, PTSB will continue to have €900 million of interest-only buy-to-let loans on its balance sheet. Mr Crowley said that, unlike the loans being sold, the loans being kept were typically to customers who had other business with the bank."

    The question is how do they handle these loans once they mature as none of the capital has been paid off? Probably another sale to some fund but what they get for them (even if performing) will depend on the direction of the property market over the next 12-24 months. They got very very lucky with this weeks sale IMO.

    Link to article in Irish Times today: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/ptsb-plays-down-ulster-bank-talk-as-it-sells-1-4bn-of-loans-1.4392203

    When these interest only loans mature then the individuals will need to either take out another mortgage to pay off the loan, Use savings to repay, sell the house to repay or default and then go through the process of reposing the house and selling it. Why would a fund be interested in purchasing something like this? As I have explained to you time and time again the funds are interested in purchasing the debt not the property.


  • #8001
    JJJackal
    Registered Users Posts: 1,016 ✭✭✭JJJackal


    Timing belt wrote: »
    When these interest only loans mature then the individuals will need to either take out another mortgage to pay off the loan, Use savings to repay, sell the house to repay or default and then go through the process of reposing the house and selling it. Why would a fund be interested in purchasing something like this? As I have explained to you time and time again the funds are interested in purchasing the debt not the property.

    If these loans are not defaulting it is unlikely the bank is losing money on them (although its unlikely that they are highly profitable if tracker based)

    These properties are likely worth close to what was paid for them - if the borrower has continued to repay all these years - it is improbable that they will suddenly default 12 plus years after the crash? Presumably a significant proportion will have a clear exit strategy.

    These are not borrowers who have been distressed for years


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