Brexit discussion thread X (Please read OP before posting)

BluePlanet wrote: »

I had read somewhere that there were ranklings in some quarters that the WA already offered Britain too much access.
It's madness they turned it down, they won't get a better deal, ever.

They really wont. I've seen the point made that the WA was governed by Article 50 so only requires a majority of member states to pass. Whereas if they exit no-deal, an agreement with a third country requires 100% ratification by all member-states, including Belgium with its regional parliaments which almost sunk the Canadian deal. The British will need to appease each and every interest in each and every EU member state.

The British have truly squandered any and all opportunities they may have had. Brexit is necessary to force a hard reset of the insular, navel gazing nonsense that passes for British politics. It will be a hard, sharp shock and the impact will be brutal but sometimes you have to hit rock bottom to change.

How about this for a story. Brexiteers used the 'threat of Turkey joining EU' to encourage a Leave vote. Now, because of that Leave vote, and with the damage it has caused, they are hoping the 'Turkish Army Fund' might buy British Steel to save it!

BBC News: Turkish army pension fund to buy British Steel

J Mysterio wrote: »

How about this for a story. Brexiteers used the 'threat of Turkey joining EU' to encourage a Leave vote. Now, because of that Leave vote, and with the damage it has caused, they are hoping the 'Turkish Army Fund' might buy British Steel to save it!

BBC News: Turkish army pension fund to buy British Steel

You think that British Steels problems started with the 2016 Referendum?

Strazdas wrote: »

It's a quite bizarre revolution though in that it is led by the privileged and the elite (Johnson, Gove, Davis, Raab, Farage, Rees-Mogg, Banks, Cummings etc)

Where was the working class movement for Brexit in the years up to 2016? Many (most?) of its most fanatical followers seem to be conservative and middle class.

Most British working class are conservative with a small 'c'. Many Labour voters, (especially the older generation), tend to be socially conservative. They still regard the aristocracy and the monied classes as their 'betters'. They worship Churchill who was virulently anti union and anti working class. They worship the royal family who epitomise inherited wealth and privilege.
Is it any wonder that they followed the advice of the upper-class 'little englanders', (who will not suffer financially), and voted for Brexit.

serfboard wrote: »

As always, the timeless quote from Yes, Minister applies:

This is coming from the top of the German government and is communicating the following to the British: Away with your threatening no-deal, because we're fully prepared to let you go through with it.

Germany really isn't prepared for a no deal with the current economic climate, there is a standard reply to this is which is

"Oh but the UK will collapse and they will be splitting peoples heads open to feast on the goo inside, its like shooting yourself in the head etc etc etc"

Fact is though this is not that relevant, at the minute no deal is the default outcome because of whats actually been voted through parliament. Something has to be offered even if its just to save face and Macron will have to non make any combative statements for a few weeks because some sort of deal is needed.

Germany is not healthy economically at the minute and only the most willfully blind will ignore this but it will be ignored and the standard replies will be given.

J Mysterio wrote: »

The economic repercussions of the Brexit death march certainly havent helped, but that's not really my main point. More that a Turkish group - connected to the Army no less - is looking to save British steel manufacturing from insolvency.

Im aware that succesive governments have failed to support British manufacturing more generally. My point here is that the current government seem happy enough with the Turkish Army buying out British Steel, despite the nasty rhetoric.

To be fair the current governing party was also quite happy to block EU measures designed to protect steel manufacturing within the union, so the irony of a potentially saviour coming from a UKIP bogeyman is really just gilding the lily.

J Mysterio wrote: »

The economic repercussions of the Brexit death march certainly havent helped, but that's not really my main point. More that a Turkish group - connected to the Army no less - is looking to save British steel manufacturing from insolvency.

Im aware that succesive governments have failed to support British manufacturing more generally. My point here is that the current government seem happy enough with the Turkish Army buying out British Steel, despite the nasty rhetoric.

It appeared to be your main point because your post said it was 'because of'. You risk going down the Jamie Oliver line where he shut down restaurants because of Brexit and other businesses set up in place and are doing quite well. Brexit will be the greatest excuse of this decade

Roger_007 wrote: »

Most British working class are conservative with a small 'c'. Many Labour voters, (especially the older generation), tend to be socially conservative. They still regard the aristocracy and the monied classes as their 'betters'. They worship Churchill who was virulently anti union and anti working class. They worship the royal family who epitomise inherited wealth and privilege.
Is it any wonder that they followed the advice of the upper-class 'little englanders', (who will not suffer financially), and voted for Brexit.

Yes, as working classes go, they are a very peculiar one......blindly following a load of toffs and millionaires as they take Britain over the edge of a cliff.

Foghladh wrote: »

Well where I live The Ivy set up in the same location and is booked out most evenings.

The Ivy has been one of the most established restaurants in London for decades.

Melanchthon wrote: »

Germany really isn't prepared for a no deal with the current economic climate, there is a standard reply to this is which is

"Oh but the UK will collapse and they will be splitting peoples heads open to feast on the goo inside, its like shooting yourself in the head etc etc etc"

Fact is though this is not that relevant, at the minute no deal is the default outcome because of whats actually been voted through parliament. Something has to be offered even if its just to save face and Macron will have to non make any combative statements for a few weeks because some sort of deal is needed.

Germany is not healthy economically at the minute and only the most willfully blind will ignore this but it will be ignored and the standard replies will be given.

Why does it always fall to the EU to have to make changes and offers? In what way have the UK moved during any of the negotiations?

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Why does it always fall to the EU to have to make changes and offers? In what way have the UK moved during any of the negotiations?

Boris Johnson has moved house 3 times since negotiations started to be fair.

It's just more of the same narrative from the UK, they're trying the 'if you say it enough, people will expect it is reasonable and likely to happen' approach.

Michael Gove saying to the EU via a TV interview that the UK is standing by, ready to negotiate, in good faith made me laugh. In good faith, while simultaneously calling the agreed backstop and WA to be undemocratic.

Although the tweet says it all, the bit that was removed was his promise to start 'this week' on upgrades to hospitals. In fact it was three weeks and the money was already allocated.

prawnsambo wrote: »

It doesn't matter what is offered. It will immediately be greeted with another obstacle. The sows ear of brexit will never transform into a silk purse. And that's been the problem since the beginning. Nothing will ever match either the promises that were made or square the circle that brexit; once defined, will ever be acceptable. Which is why no deal is the de facto end point. It maintains the illusion without anyone having to admit that it was a crap idea to start with.

No point in offering anything anyway. Sixty Tory MPs will vote down the WA even if the backstop is removed.

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Not to be a naysayer but I’m not seeing the question asked here by our media, but where are these checks going to take place and how?
Listening to that bbc report Kermit posted yesterday and loathe as I am to admit it, sammy bloody Wilson pointed out these checks already do happen. I get that we need to establish and get the British to agree to regulatory alignment for NI at least but I can’t see that happening in the short term.
It is ireland that’s going to have to do the dirty work after the 31st, if the Brits do indeed leave. But then the onus and pressure is on us for the border no?

We will not know until they have left and we will not make arrangements or plans until that happens. Because if we do start these arrangements it will become a self fulfilling prophecy. Because we started the plans means we are ready for it to happen so we are not looking to avoid it. It really is that simple, the strategy for those on the other side is to try and get us to admit that there can be a border. If they can get us to admit a border can happen but not on the border then they have won. That is why you get the talk of different VAT rules and the likes from Brexiteers, it is throwing anything that sticks.

Melanchthon wrote: »

That's my point, the German economy is wobbly now before Brexit, brexit would of course harm UK more but it will hit key German sectors to a certain extent. Why do you think in general Merkel has played good cop compared to others because this is understood.
This sub is very very ideologically pro-EU but I don't get how posters here don't understand how statements by Macron and Junker both pretty unpopular individuals themselves and leaks particularly the big one probably by Martin Selymar play straight into the ERG's hands.

The requirement of DUP support is the issue on UK side and that was a screw up offer Borris (without leaking it first) something like 2-5 year limit on backstop for the WA end of which would trigger a immediate NI border/status poll and I believe it would pass with labour rebel support.

Yes the German economy is wobbly, but so is everybody else right now. There are a variety of factors to this and one of them us Brexit. So the question is, will the German economy make a recovery if the EU gives the UK the deal they want? I suspect it will not as this is just a slowdown that happens all the time, what comes up must come down. The key for governments is to make the downturn as short as possible and start growing again.

With Trump in the White House, it is hard to predict when the sunny uplands will return. With him shouting tariffs every few seconds is making everyone nervous and with a lot of economies still tender from the GFC, well its not great for anyone right now. Add in a sprinkling of Brexit is not helping, but its like bandaging a paper cut when you have been in a car accident. Yes it helps but it is a small problem in the wider context.