Storm Aiden - Saturday October 31st

dirkmeister · 31-10-2020 7:25am

Awake since about 4:30 here in Kilkenny, thought the roof was after coming off the house.

It’s raining very heavily here now.

Jim Gazebo · 31-10-2020 7:53am

Calm in cork city. Good timing for the spin to work

Craigels · 31-10-2020 7:54am

Woke up to very strong gusts here in Limerick in the last 30 minutes or so.

teddybones · 31-10-2020 7:59am

Wild in Wicklow. Just had the dogs out for a walk before the worst hits and it's pretty bad already. Dogs weren't impressed with sideways rain slapping them in the face so was a short walk. There was a gust of 57mph in the wee hours according to Wicklow weather station. Waves are big and clean looking. I'd imagine the local surf spot will be inundated. Stay safe everyone.

Dank Janniels · 31-10-2020 8:04am

Loudest rain Iv heard in a good while!

rainshowers.JPG

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2020 8:08am

Here's some details on timing, later discussion may fine tune this a bit ...

for eastern counties, expect the strong winds to continue from south until a squall line passes around 1100h, shifting winds to westerly. Those winds will be equally strong for a brief period but you will notice considerable improvement after about 2 or 3 p.m. ... then a relatively minor second peak of moderately strong southwesterlies by Sunday daybreak, that also moderating gradually.

for south coast, this sequence will be faster, the squall line is already forming inland west, should be passing through Waterford around 10 a.m., so that's about when winds will veer westerly there. Inland southeast, split the difference. Same general idea for second round.

for west coast counties and most of Connacht, west Ulster, the squall line is less of a factor, winds will gradually veer from south to southwest then west, maintaining or even building on current levels, peak around 1100h, then slowly abate (further north you are, slower). The second round may be fairly intense especially in Connemara and Mayo, that will peak around 0200h Sunday.

Inland north central to midlands, squall line fairly soon, wind shift, gradual improvement this afternoon, ramping up to fairly strong again tonight peaking around 0300h.

Graces7, you could expect peaks around 10-11 a.m. today and 0200h middle of the night, should calm down considerably between these peaks and by Sunday mid-day.

Monday a rather minor afterthought trough will pass and there will be a moderate peak of winds across the country around early afternoon (in the 50-80 km/hr range mostly).

Then a delightful calm period will follow (gradually, Thursday and Friday look to be almost wind-free days).

DOCARCH · 31-10-2020 8:21am

Some strong gusts now and driving rain in Dublin 16.

pad199207 · 31-10-2020 9:04am

Seems to be a lull in Kildare now

M.T. Cranium · 31-10-2020 9:20am

I suspect this won't quite live up to expectations for many (although I am guessing that many here already lowered their expectations anyway). It's a vigorous enough system but more yellow than orange, the orange verification is going to be isolated at best. If Zeta wasn't there to rob this system of any cold advection, it might help it.

Still, don't let your guard down especially until that squall line feature is past you.

Tonight from all indications will be more moderate than extreme too.

(comments not meant to apply to any Galway Bay surge potential, that's a concern for next high tide)

DOCARCH · 31-10-2020 9:20am

pad199207 wrote: »

Seems to be a lull in Kildare now

Ditto here.

Highest gust in 0800 reports is 94kmh at Mace Head.

Have not seen any station exceed 100kmh gust this morning?

Graces7 · 31-10-2020 9:23am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Here's some details on timing, later discussion may fine tune this a bit ...

for eastern counties, expect the strong winds to continue from south until a squall line passes around 1100h, shifting winds to westerly. Those winds will be equally strong for a brief period but you will notice considerable improvement after about 2 or 3 p.m. ... then a relatively minor second peak of moderately strong southwesterlies by Sunday daybreak, that also moderating gradually.

for south coast, this sequence will be faster, the squall line is already forming inland west, should be passing through Waterford around 10 a.m., so that's about when winds will veer westerly there. Inland southeast, split the difference. Same general idea for second round.

for west coast counties and most of Connacht, west Ulster, the squall line is less of a factor, winds will gradually veer from south to southwest then west, maintaining or even building on current levels, peak around 1100h, then slowly abate (further north you are, slower). The second round may be fairly intense especially in Connemara and Mayo, that will peak around 0200h Sunday.

Inland north central to midlands, squall line fairly soon, wind shift, gradual improvement this afternoon, ramping up to fairly strong again tonight peaking around 0300h.

Graces7, you could expect peaks around 10-11 a.m. today and 0200h middle of the night, should calm down considerably between these peaks and by Sunday mid-day.

Monday a rather minor afterthought trough will pass and there will be a moderate peak of winds across the country around early afternoon (in the 50-80 km/hr range mostly).

Then a delightful calm period will follow (gradually, Thursday and Friday look to be almost wind-free days).

Thanks MT. Currently it is a nasty autumn gale but no more. A lot of course depends on the wind direction ( airt as they called it in Orkney!) There we knew if the gale was from the east there was no chance of the ferry ( around 2 hours from Mainland Orkney)
They are saying southerly changing to westerly here.

Strom Callum was the worst and scariest for me, but I cannot find wind direction . My home literally shook and shivered. No one else here was as badly affected. Strongest gust was at Belmullet 125 kph and it took the coast road out there. There was some shocking video film online.!

It was very much a west coast event as this is. ( they thought I was exaggerating here!)

Stay safe as we will here.

pauldry · 31-10-2020 9:26am

Met Eireann may have overshot the runway here though midday in the North and West could be near 100kph. Then midnight 80kph.

corsav6 · 31-10-2020 9:27am

Newport Co Mayo, max gust on my personal weather station is 94kph so far.
About 55m above sea level and 4 miles from the coast.

Little snowy old me · 31-10-2020 9:34am

With wind speeds no higher than yellow level warnings, it is obvious, yet again, that Met Eireann have indulged in hype. People have enough to be dealing with at the moment without orange level warnings and talk of damaging gusts. Its Autumn, we always get gales. I hope its not going to be a season of weekly warnings every time a gale is forecast.

DOCARCH · 31-10-2020 9:37am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

With wind speeds no higher than yellow level warnings, it is obvious, yet again, that Met Eireann have indulged in hype. People have enough to be dealing with at the moment without orange level warnings and talk of damaging gusts. Its Autumn, we always get gales. I hope its not going to be a season of weekly warnings every time a gale is forecast.

A bit early for your (usual) dismissal. Orange warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Clare only came into effect 30 minutes ago.

PukkaStukka · 31-10-2020 9:51am

Looks like a quick squal line is about to push through Dublin in the next 20 mins or so

spoonerhead · 31-10-2020 9:55am

Big temperature drop behind that squall line, winds picking back up too.

An Ri rua · 31-10-2020 9:56am

I cannot give measurements but my gut feeling, from almost half a century on this planet and 20 here in North Laois, is that the wind gusts have been borderline Orange and the potential damage from the squall effect with the volume of rain in it cannot be under-estimated.
It's been a very watchful night here, as it were. No wind event, in the grand scale of storms we've had, but certainly packing a punch and will have caught out some people and tested some physical materials before the weekend is out.

31-10-2020 9:58am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

With wind speeds no higher than yellow level warnings, it is obvious, yet again, that Met Eireann have indulged in hype. People have enough to be dealing with at the moment without orange level warnings and talk of damaging gusts. Its Autumn, we always get gales. I hope its not going to be a season of weekly warnings every time a gale is forecast.

You couldn't resist temptation to flippantly write off the event, jumping the gun a mere seven hours before the orange warnings lapsed but then timing was never your forte.

Graces7 · 31-10-2020 10:01am

Little snowy old me wrote: »

With wind speeds no higher than yellow level warnings, it is obvious, yet again, that Met Eireann have indulged in hype. People have enough to be dealing with at the moment without orange level warnings and talk of damaging gusts. Its Autumn, we always get gales. I hope its not going to be a season of weekly warnings every time a gale is forecast.

so just ignore them?

They have to cover every eventuality. If they muted it and worse happened there could be deaths and damage and imagine the outrage then

Weather is a living, labile force. It cannot ever be pinned down like a dead butterfly. It moves, changes.

Sure, YOU may not see the damaging gusts but OTHERS will. And know in advance to take precautions. And to be relieved when the worst does not happen.

met,ie do a grand and valued job - as do the weather experts here.

NB have there been any orange warnings before this?

Gaoth Laidir · 31-10-2020 10:01am

This is the 06Z analysis, showing a fairly broad centre of 975 hPa focused at 55N 15W. It's slightly different to that forecast yesterday (second chart), which had a dual centre, one focus of which was along the southwest coast. This morning's analysis may have a second centre within that slack zone that is not low enough for a 976-hPa isobar (so between 977 and 980 hPa). Small details like that have large effects.

Harry Palmr · 31-10-2020 10:04am

Non event in my bedroom.

DOCARCH · 31-10-2020 10:05am

Squall line passed through Dublin 16 without too much fanfare. Some increased wind/gusts and a very brief burst of rain. Sun's out now.

galwaybabe · 31-10-2020 10:05am

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

(comments not meant to apply to any Galway Bay surge potential, that's a concern for next high tide)

Would you have some comments on the Galway Bay surge potential?

Cloudio9 · 31-10-2020 10:10am

DOCARCH wrote: »

Squall line passed through Dublin 16 without too much fanfare. Some increased wind/gusts and a very brief burst of rain. Sun's out now.

Nice blast from it for a few minutes with horizontal rain in north Dublin but it looks a lot weaker on south Dublin on the radar.

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 10:17am

9am
Mace head gusting 52 knots
Belmullet 50 knots

pauldry · 31-10-2020 10:19am

96kph in Mace Hd now and 93kph Belmullet

This is probably the start for us in the North and West

John mac · 31-10-2020 10:23am

heres a webcam from Achill

https://www.loveachill.com/en/live-streaming-webcam-of-achill-island

and another from The Arran islands hotel
https://www.aranislandshotel.com/

km79 · 31-10-2020 10:26am

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You couldn't resist temptation to flippantly write off the event, jumping the gun a mere seven hours before the orange warnings lapsed but then timing was never your forte.

Like clockwork
I just don’t understand people who appear to get off on trolling Internet forums .
Especially a weather one

pad199207 · 31-10-2020 10:34am

Gust 93kmh at Casement. Associated with squall I’d imagine.

corsav6 · 31-10-2020 10:49am

Stepped up a level now outside Newport, Mayo. Still nothing major, maybe high end yellow but we have a few hours to go so could hit an orange level gust or w yet.

redsteveireland · 31-10-2020 11:02am

Orange level or not I'm glad I moved my garden furniture as it would not have lasted in some of the stronger gusts.

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 11:15am

Belmullet gusting 62 knots (115 km/h) at 10am

Graces7 · 31-10-2020 11:21am

More sustained and louder gusts here; I had to put the subtitles up on youtube!

Brighter though.

MUCH louder! Startlingly so...

Discodog · 31-10-2020 12:05pm

Just back from a one hour walk along the shore near Inverin. I have walked here every day for 20 years & today's winds are some of the strongest I have ever experienced.

The slightest cloud comes with squalls & some gusts are well into Orange. I was struggling to stay on my feet at times.

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 12:08pm

Belmullet gusting 61 knots & Donegal airport gusting 59 knots @11am

Graces7 · 31-10-2020 12:20pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Belmullet gusting 61 knots & Donegal airport gusting 59 knots @11am

As met ie use KPH please can you translate? Thank you!

Bleating Lamb · 31-10-2020 12:22pm

Serious gusts here in North Leitrim at mo.

Storm 10 · 31-10-2020 12:22pm

Graces7 wrote: »

As met ie use KPH please can you translate? Thank you!

59 knots is 109 kph

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 12:24pm

Graces7 wrote: »

As met ie use KPH please can you translate? Thank you!

They dont,they use knots. If you care to look carefully before posting the KPH is in brackets beside the Knots on the site.

ednwireland · 31-10-2020 12:25pm

breezy old day innit

Xenji · 31-10-2020 12:25pm

Severe gusts now in Castlebar, 31mm of rain since midnight.

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 12:27pm

Xenji wrote: »

Severe gusts now in Castlebar, 31mm of rain since midnight.

Tis rough enough alright

Meteorite58 · 31-10-2020 12:27pm

Gusting to 77 km/h here near Tralee, had 13.2mm from heavy squally rain overnight, got very mild getting up to 15.7C and back now to 10.3C.

Off the mark to what some of the models were predicting. For me I think the HI Res were so trying to catch up in the early stages, even up to a day or so out that the tendency was to stick with the main models but in hindsight the Hi res did get it together in the end.

Main winds now in the W and transferring to the NW as the Storm pulls away to the N. Looks like Donegal could get a good lick of the strongest winds yet.

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 12:28pm

Carrickfinn (Donegal Airport)should get 65 knots or so over the next hour or two

Meteorite58 · 31-10-2020 12:32pm

Nice hook forming aiming at Donegal where would expect the strongest winds of the day perhaps.

Oscar Bravo · 31-10-2020 12:37pm

Updated TAF from Donegal giving max gusts of 68 knots in the next couple of hours

TEMPO 3112/3114 26042G68KT
BECMG 3115/3117 25027G44KT
BECMG 3119/3121 22018G30KT

Meteorite58 · 31-10-2020 12:41pm

Another windy night in store, strongest winds along Atlantic coasts, all coasts windy for a time.

Graces7 · 31-10-2020 12:44pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Carrickfinn (Donegal Airport)should get 65 knots or so over the next hour or two

Ok. Be kind? Bad connection here so additional searches are hard. Thank you in advance and for all you do here anyways

pauldry · 31-10-2020 12:53pm

Regularly gusting 100kph here now as anticipated. Will be gone in an hour or so though I'd say before more regular 70 to 80 kph tonight

Storm Aiden - Saturday October 31st

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