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Strong winds / Heavy Rain Tues 27 and Storm Diana Weds 28 Nov. 2018

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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Is this coming in from the south? Due to travel from mayo to North Kildare tomorrow with two little ones and trying to decide what time is best with the warning going 500-1600. We cant leave it until after as it’s way too late. Would I be best legging it at 7 when they wake?


  • Registered Users Posts: 21 LoxontheRox


    Nice and calm here with the sun breaking through grey clouds
    North Clare


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    Is this coming in from the south? Due to travel from mayo to North Kildare tomorrow with two little ones and trying to decide what time is best with the warning going 500-1600. We cant leave it until after as it’s way too late. Would I be best legging it at 7 when they wake?

    With respect no one here can tell you what to do, its your decision based on the weather forecast not what a board member might advise you to do, this is what happens every time Amber or Red comes up. The important thing to remember is you and your family's safety so take care .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    Lovely day in Galway now and seems quite mild.


  • Registered Users Posts: 266 ✭✭Burts Bee


    Yeah, cloudy but mild, no rain or wind. North Cork. Pissing rain and house vibrating early this morning though!


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,959 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    really awful day here at Dunshaughlin. Heavy rain, dark skies, lights and heating on.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭willowthewisp


    Any chance this will upgrade to an Amber or red tomorrow? Really hope not.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭sjb25


    Any chance this will upgrade to an Amber or red tomorrow? Really hope not.

    No such thing as Amber! Warnings are yellow orange or red we have orange it won’t be red


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Any chance this will upgrade to an Amber or red tomorrow? Really hope not

    It is an amber warning for now , with it likely to stay that for the duration of the storm , keep an eye on forecasts


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    at least we have a quieter night between now and then. ..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭touts


    Any chance this will upgrade to an Amber or red tomorrow? Really hope not.

    One girl at work excitedly asked if we were getting a day off if it becomes a red warning. The look of disgust on her face when I told her the storm was due during working hours and as long as she made it in on time for once she would be ok.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    :confused::rolleyes:

    That escalated quickly!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    With respect no one here can tell you what to do, its your decision based on the weather forecast not what a board member might advise you to do, this is what happens every time Amber or Red comes up. The important thing to remember is you and your family's safety so take care .

    With respect that doesn’t answer me at all and is quite patronising. I have read the forum for the last five years plus. The posters here are very knowledgeable and are worth listening to in addition to the Met Eireann forecasters. I just haven’t been following this event closely because I have a newborn. I know that you can’t tell me what to do, I’m not an idiot.

    I didn’t ask if it was going to rain in my back yard. I asked if the storm was coming up from south specifically because a broad time frame yellow warning for the whole country does not necessarily mean that the weather will start being awful in every part of the country at 5am and last the entire way until 1600. This is detailed regularly by many knowledge posters who post about where it will be bad and the approx narrower time frames than the general warnings by Met Eireann. For example MT cranium posted about Dublin this morning I believe. If the storm is moving up from the south then the earlier I go the better and I will make that decision myself. I specifically asked about the south as it seems to have a separate warning. If it’s coming in from the west for example then I’ll stay put until the worst has passed.


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,645 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,634 ✭✭✭✭Graces7


    Bright lovely sunshine and breezy ..west mayo offshore


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Gaoth Laidir


    Forecast for 06Z tomorrow morning. Diana 966 hPa west of Kerry with a strong gradient but weakening gradient to its southeast. Winds associated with it should be already past the max by the time the worst of it hits the south, but still strong and very gusty.

    ukmo_nat_fax_2018112706_024.png

    Winds at 100 metres amsl.

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2018112700_027.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2018112700_030.jpg

    ecm0125_nat_100uv_mslp_2018112700_033.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    With respect that doesn’t answer me at all and is quite patronising. I have read the forum for the last five years plus. The posters here are very knowledgeable and are worth listening to in addition to the Met Eireann forecasters. I just haven’t been following this event closely because I have a newborn. I know that you can’t tell me what to do, I’m not an idiot.

    I didn’t ask if it was going to rain in my back yard. I asked if the storm was coming up from south specifically because a broad time frame yellow warning for the whole country does not necessarily mean that the weather will start being awful in every part of the country at 5am and last the entire way until 1600. This is detailed regularly by many knowledge posters who post about where it will be bad and the approx narrower time frames than the general warnings by Met Eireann. For example MT cranium posted about Dublin this morning I believe. If the storm is moving up from the south then the earlier I go the better and I will make that decision myself. I specifically asked about the south as it seems to have a separate warning. If it’s coming in from the west for example then I’ll stay put until the worst has passed.

    Point taken but as you may be aware when the warnings go up the forum goes mad with posters asking should I do this or that totally causing a mess of weather reporting anyway stay safe out there


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭sjb25


    Deedsie wrote: »
    She was presumably excited about the prospect of a day not having to work with you if that is how you speak to your colleagues. Poor girl

    https://youtu.be/fP9pWYPiJv4


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 6,751 ✭✭✭mirrorwall14


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Point taken but as you may be aware when the warnings go up the forum goes mad with posters asking should I do this or that totally causing a mess of weather reporting anyway stay safe out there

    Grand. I know. Hence asking if it was coming from the south and not a specific area


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭goat2


    According to the one o clock news, it is coming up from the sw, and the south west is going to bear the brunt of this , all the way up the coast, the word dangerous was used, so , get out there and move things to safety

    it is happening during nighttime, and until 4 tomorrow evening, hope all will be home and safe tonight


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,951 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    The next named storm will begin with E. Which name will depend on which agency names it, but the current status (as described by Evelyn Cusack at the excellend IMS Sailing Weather conference in Dun Laoghaire last Friday) is a joint agreement between Ireland, UK, Spain, Portugal, France and I think the Danish and Swedish. Any one of those can name a storm and the others will use it (though she did say that the Danish Met didn't want to use Bronagh as it was too strange).

    My information says the next storm named by Met Éireann or UK Met Office will still be Deirdre.

    We continued with the usual letters after Emma was used last year too.


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,151 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Villain wrote: »
    My information says the next storm named by Met Éireann or UK Met Office will still be Deirdre.

    We continued with the usual letters after Emma was used last year too.

    That's my understanding too....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,709 ✭✭✭✭Cantona's Collars


    One upside is that anyone who put up outside Christmas decorations in fecking November might have them relocated. :):)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,762 ✭✭✭Knine


    One upside is that anyone who put up outside Christmas decorations in fecking November might have them relocated. :):)

    Used a staple gun this year for the roof lights. Mine will be staying put. Spent far too much time last year retrieving them off the roof.:D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    15.00 UTC sat image of Diana

    bnNh7Ue.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    GEM hints at the low risk but potential high impact follow on into Thursday AM, a turbulent few days

    gem-0-42.png?12


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,539 ✭✭✭The Specialist


    Met E yet again with the bizarre warning geography - how can Limerick be a yellow warning when it is surrounded by Orange warnings? The wind doesn’t decide to slow down at the ****in county borders :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,675 ✭✭✭ronnie3585


    Met E yet again with the bizarre warning geography - how can Limerick be a yellow warning when it is surrounded by Orange warnings? The wind doesn’t decide to slow down at the ****in county borders :D

    Insert Limerick joke...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    Met E yet again with the bizarre warning geography - how can Limerick be a yellow warning when it is surrounded by Orange warnings? The wind doesn’t decide to slow down at the ****in county borders :D

    That is the system at the moment. Fact is that no location within the county of Limerick is expected to receive Orange level winds. Whilst some parts (not all) of the counties in the Orange level warning are expected to receive Orange level winds. It is a county based warning system.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Latest max gusts shows Diana making a fairly windy but brief event for South, South West, South east, with some good gusts inland too

    tempresult_fxf7.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭Zorya


    .


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭Sycamore Tree


    Nobody seems to be talking about this storm.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,780 ✭✭✭✭ninebeanrows


    EC delayed by the looks of things!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    System looks quite potent to me on gfs and ukmo. Ok nothing exceptional but certainly a few hours of storm force winds well capable of disruption


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Nobody seems to be talking about this storm.

    Yep, doesn't look a whole lot on the HiRes Arome. Apart from coastal counties in affected areas it's nothing major.


    tempresult_bou3.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,070 ✭✭✭Franz Von Peppercorn


    The British met office (the app) indicates that it’s a normal storm they wouldn’t name in the U.K. except the Portuguese did already.


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,061 ✭✭✭irishfeen


    Its nothing major, just hitting the south at wrong time in Cork and Kerry at school hour.

    ukgust.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    looks like wicklow may be hit if I read it right
    k6fkaJu.gif

    this is the one that shows wicklow and some more inland getting hit

    dbrxuHQ.png


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  • Registered Users Posts: 205 ✭✭CirrusBusiness


    spookwoman wrote: »
    looks like wicklow may be hit if I read it right
    k6fkaJu.gif
    Looks like Carlow and Kildare are in line for some of the stronger gusts too as well as Wexford and Wicklow. (Around 11/12 o'clock.)

    Icon brings some of the higher gusts more inland.
    GFS keeps it to more of a coastal event.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Storm Diana may be stronger than was generally thought, a ship report from 45.2 N 22.9 W at 18z says wind SSW 52 knots, pressure 954 mb.

    10m wave height, temp 17 dp 14.

    I searched back and this ship was not reporting at earlier hours back to 12z.

    Satellite imagery shows centre is close to 45N 25W.

    There are two ocean buoys (Pap, K1) in the path of the cyclone for later updates.

    Surprised a ship was routed to that position unless it's there deliberately to measure the storm.

    This might imply a robust orange alert justified for south coast 0600h-1200h.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    update

    Marine Warning
    Status Orange - Gale Warning
    1. Southeast to south winds will reach gale force 8 at times tonight and overnight on all Irish Coastal waters and on the Irish Sea.
    2. Southerly winds veering southwesterly will reach gale force 8 or strong gale force 9 during Wednesday on all Irish Coastal Waters and on the Irish Sea, with storm force 10 winds for a time from Mizen Head to Valentia to Loop Head.

    Issued: Tuesday 27 November 2018 19:00


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    That ship report is far enough from the centre to justify an estimated central pressure of 948-950 mb at 18z.

    A more exact centre fix would be 45.5N 25.5W. That is about 150 nm west of the ship's position.

    Satellite image suggested the ship was in the "outer eyewall" feature that the storm has (a rough analogy, not saying it has tropical characteristics). Wind streaks can be seen arriving at that position from the WSW and it appears to be an area of convection.

    With the very fast forward speed of Diana I think south coast could see gusts as high as 67 knots. The usual ratio of about 1.4:1 for gusts suggests current conditions are at least 50G70. The land approach may intensify the mixing down while the storm weakens slightly, so steady state until it passes the south coast would be my hunch, and it could be most severe in the southeast rather than the southwest this time, although anywhere from Sherkin Island east may see those gusts. Peak gusts further north may be more restrained, 50 to 55 knot range possibly.

    As mentioned by several posters, the south to southwest wind direction will have a different impact around Dublin than today's windstorm, and generally less severe but possibly more blustery well inland as winds move up to the west of the higher terrain.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    MT ship about here?

    f9XbIKH.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,970 ✭✭✭Storm 10


    There are quite a lot of ships out in the storm area


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,583 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Yes that looks right. Unless it's a naval ship sent out to get a reading, I was very surprised to see it there, ships nowadays are routed well away from that kind of setup and I could not find any sign of it at 15z or 12z (most report on the 3h intervals). So I am not sure which way it's heading (let's hope not down).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,971 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    Yes that looks right. Unless it's a naval ship sent out to get a reading, I was very surprised to see it there, ships nowadays are routed well away from that kind of setup and I could not find any sign of it at 15z or 12z (most report on the 3h intervals). So I am not sure which way it's heading (let's hope not down).

    busy out there
    https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:-25.0/centery:45.7/zoom:5


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,981 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    I'm enclined to agree MT the south coast from Kerry through Cork and On to Waterford could see disruption from this. Then again I guess that's what an orange level alert states anyway.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,068 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    At this late stage still some difference amongst the models, GFS, ARPEGE and ICON would reflect Met Eireanns forecast to some extent. Hi Res models HIRLAM and AROME look a bit underwhelming at this stage.

    ECM in my estimation probably the most reliable and consistent Model is reflecting and matching the warnings the most at this stage. The model is slow to roll out tonight. So far probably up ever so marginally in wind speed on Southern coasts than the last run.

    Keeping an eye on the SE, looks like a very tight gradient, 850 hPa winds very strong.


    ECU1-24_ism3.GIF

    Note 850 hPa Winds

    ECU4-24_itg5.GIF


    The high wind speed in bold white is a mountaintop


    mCLavdt.png

    sWLlLKc.png

    edoDI7w.png

    4z6XyTf.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 269 ✭✭Mount Vesuvius


    Recent top wind gust, this will come down a lot when it comes near Ireland.

    467022.jpg


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