10th Annual White Christmas Thread!

ECM trying to make a fool of my post above. Is going for a quite mild xmas now! The GFS 6z is still cold though...

Well a week to go and the Xmas day weather is still very unclear.

Our own MT opines as follows in his thread today:-

"...The outlook for the holiday period is still somewhat undecided with rather different guidance available from the various models. Some want to bring several more active low pressure areas through the country around the 24th and 26th with frequent outbreaks of rain and at least moderately strong winds. Others have more of a settled look with high pressure becoming dominant. I think the unsettled versions have more chance of being right, and would say the weather over the holidays is likely to be at least damp, if not wet, and temperatures at least average if not a little above (7 to 10 C range). "

HOWEVER, the very latest guidance just this mid morning from the GFS shows a far cooler outcome with frost lingering for much of Xmas day and temps in the low single figures for the bulk of the day. See:-

Upper temps



2m Temps



Alas it would be dry in most of the country with rain, rather than snow, falling in parts of the north. Still, you might get a half white christmas through frost or even some sleet / wet snow from a set up like that. Sort of in the right ball park anyway.

The ECM overnight shows somewhere in the middle of those two outcomes as follows:-

Uppers



Nothing particularly mild about that set up either with temps likely to stay in single figures throughout that day and maybe even a frost in parts.

So, relative to recent years, still on for a seasonal Xmas day! And with 7 days still to go you can't yet quite rule out, well, you know.....:)

The morning model suite keeps the theme going of a relatively cool / cold Christmas day. The GFS shows it not quite as cold as it was showing yesterday whilst the ECM has gone the other way and moved from its mild prediction of yesterday to similar to the GFS this morning (-3 or -4 uppers or so). Temps will be in single figures and might be frosts each of Xmas Eve and Xmas Night. The below chart is minimum temps (at ground level, not uppers) at noon and shows you could even get a frost lingering all day in places so a white Christmas of a sort (no snow alas). I will take that anyday after recent years.

All joking aside both the GFS and ECM showing a cold xmas day as of this evening so Im happy with that. Amazing how all over the place the models have been though.

For once Im looking forward to lighting the fire on Xmas day without making the house uncomfortably warm!