Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

Slashermcguirk · 09-11-2020 4:36pm

Its to be 26 degrees in New York city tomorrow ! it has been 20s the past week. Even Buffalo in up state new york is to hit 22 degrees tomorrow. That must be a near record in NY in November. I have been in New york city in the winter twice and both times got plastered with snow and it was constantly between 0 and -10 degrees.

Gonzo · 09-11-2020 4:46pm

every time I look at the charts they just keep getting milder, latest GFS is very, very mild indeed right up to the end of the month with +12 uppers from around the 17th of November, we appear to be absolutely locked into an extended period of mild weather which at this time of the year can be as difficult to shift as a cool, unsettled setup at the start of summer. I don't think we will even see a frost this month if charts verify over the next 3 weeks.

nacho libre · 09-11-2020 5:21pm

A very bleak post from M.T. Cranium over on Netweather. I have included spoilers for that reason.

"Broad similarity to Nov 2015 at this point with record warmth across North America, fast flow across the Atlantic, rising temperatures in early to mid Nov western Europe. This could go on for 6-10 weeks and push any winter hopes back into Feb/Mar. "

Slashermcguirk · 09-11-2020 5:31pm

How can it literally be warm everywhere, America, Canada, UK, Europe, scandinavia. how can nowhere be cold in November?? so bizarre

leahyl · 09-11-2020 5:32pm

nacho libre wrote: »

A very bleak post from M.T. Cranium over on Netweather. I have included spoilers for that reason.

"Broad similarity to Nov 2015 at this point with record warmth across North America, fast flow across the Atlantic, rising temperatures in early to mid Nov western Europe. This could go on for 6-10 weeks and push any winter hopes back into Feb/Mar. "

:(

pauldry · 09-11-2020 6:10pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

How can it literally be warm everywhere, America, Canada, UK, Europe, scandinavia. how can nowhere be cold in November?? so bizarre

Climate change. Meh mild isnt even unusual now in November. Sure it will be 15 or 16c a couple of times too in December...probably at midnight!

sryanbruen · 09-11-2020 6:21pm

nacho libre wrote: »

A very bleak post from M.T. Cranium over on Netweather. I have included spoilers for that reason.

I must say that all the "background signals" look pretty grim for this winter but then again some of them sent us down the wrong path in some recent years when they were looking good or ok :rolleyes:

Been such a boring period for weather since the 2018 heatwave broke.

Artane2002 · 09-11-2020 8:12pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I must say that all the "background signals" look pretty grim for this winter but then again some of them sent us down the wrong path in some recent years when they were looking good or ok :rolleyes:

Been such a boring period for weather since the 2018 heatwave broke.

it's been incredibly boring since October 2018 bar spring this year. last winter marked the point that i lost interest in Irish weather. i expect this winter to be yet another "worst winter" ever for the third year in a row and the 5th time in the last six years. maybe if we all wish for mild weather then we'll get proper winter weather

Donegal Storm · 09-11-2020 9:08pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Its to be 26 degrees in New York city tomorrow ! it has been 20s the past week. Even Buffalo in up state new york is to hit 22 degrees tomorrow. That must be a near record in NY in November. I have been in New york city in the winter twice and both times got plastered with snow and it was constantly between 0 and -10 degrees.

I'd love a climate like that where it's pleasant right up to November then a short but sharp and interesting winter then back to warmth in the spring.

The constant 12C +/- a few degrees year round definitely does make it hard to sustain an interest in weather in this country

Gonzo · 09-11-2020 9:21pm

Winter 2018/2019 ..... we seem to go through record breaking mild and then a taste of summer in February 2019.

Winter 2019/2020..... the polar vortex of doom and relentless mild and records broken again for mild.

Winter 2020/2021

sure it couldn't happen again could it! You bet it can! Current charts/projections are every bit as grim as they were last winter, here we go again.

Hopefully all isn't lost but I think it's fair to say we won't be seeing much if any snow between now and Christmas so maybe the new year will hopefully change for the better.

I mean we are years and years overdue a cold December or January with decent snowy potential, it has to happen again at some stage.

Lucreto · 09-11-2020 9:35pm

It seems to be following the pattern from 2010 onward.

After the 2010 snow we then had 3 or 4 mild Winters in a row then it stabilised and we had more frosty days.

The last Winters were mild and the outlook for this Winter is the same. It will be probably be next Winter or the Winter after before we see anything significant.

Loughc · 09-11-2020 9:56pm

Lucreto wrote: »

It seems to be following the pattern from 2010 onward.

After the 2010 snow we then had 3 or 4 mild Winters in a row then it stabilised and we had more frosty days.

The last Winters were mild and the outlook for this Winter is the same. It will be probably be next Winter or the Winter after before we see anything significant.

Is winter the Liverpool of the seasons? Next year is our year. Only 30 years until the next good winter so. And I’m a pool fan :pac:

nacho libre · 10-11-2020 1:31pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

I must say that all the "background signals" look pretty grim for this winter but then again some of them sent us down the wrong path in some recent years when they were looking good or ok :rolleyes:

Been such a boring period for weather since the 2018 heatwave broke.

Of course these background signals will more than likely be right when they are showing a blowtorch winter overall!

compsys · 10-11-2020 6:25pm

I don't quite understand all the negativity.

Technically it's still autumn. It's far too early in the season for snow so any cold we get now would just be wasted and would just lead to higher heating bills.

If we keep getting this milder weather come mid-December into mid-February I could understand the complaints - but what use is cold weather in Ireland in November?

What does vex me though is how it's so easy for temps to be regularly 4 or 5 degrees above average in late autumn and winter whereas during summer even cracking 20º seems to be beyond us...

Gonzo · 10-11-2020 7:38pm

compsys wrote: »

What does vex me though is how it's so easy for temps to be regularly 4 or 5 degrees above average in late autumn and winter whereas during summer even cracking 20º seems to be beyond us...

we had problems cracking 17C throughout most of Summer 2020 particularly in July and August!

daniel_t1409 · 10-11-2020 7:44pm

Gonzo wrote: »

we had problems cracking 17C throughout most of Summer 2020 particularly in July and August!

only in ireland is winter almost warmer than summer :rolleyes:

Slashermcguirk · 10-11-2020 9:24pm

Ok everyone cool the jets, it’s impossible to forecast a week ahead and we are still in Autumn. There will be snow in December, just have that feeling. Happy for the mild muck to be with us now, would rather the cold in December and January

NickNickleby · 10-11-2020 9:38pm

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Ok everyone cool the jets, it’s impossible to forecast a week ahead and we are still in Autumn. There will be snow in December, just have that feeling. Happy for the mild muck to be with us now, would rather the cold in December and January

Yippee!!

Hahahaha. When the little icon lit up and I saw it was this thread, before opening your post I thought :

"for a laugh I'm going to suggest that no one else can post, unless they are guaranteeing snow".

or praying for it

Clonmel1000 · 10-11-2020 10:43pm

You have a feeling? I’d a feeling I was going to win the lotto last Saturday. I didn’t...

screamer · 10-11-2020 10:47pm

Meh, are we surprised, or rather, why are we surprised? 2010 was a once in a lifetime event I think. We don’t get snow in December, it’s into Feb/ March if we get any at all. Mild, mucky, yucky weather is what we have every year in Nov and a few storms in December in previous years.

pad199207 · 10-11-2020 11:21pm

pauldry · 11-11-2020 12:19am

Last Christmas seemed to be very dry and mild but I was very ill so not sure was I hallucinating or did that really happen.

Not sure did we have any snow last Winter at all because in late February and March Covid came to town and then it seemed to be sunny in the Northwest for yonks

Artane2002 · 11-11-2020 8:46am

pauldry wrote: »

Last Christmas seemed to be very dry and mild but I was very ill so not sure was I hallucinating or did that really happen.

Not sure did we have any snow last Winter at all because in late February and March Covid came to town and then it seemed to be sunny in the Northwest for yonks

February and March brought some flurries. now that i think about it, i think we had a fairly decent northwesterly either in January or February that brought quite a few snow showers for us in Dublin, we usually stay dry in northwesterlies. i remember it being very cold too but I'm pretty sure it was a one day affair.

ZX7R · 11-11-2020 9:09am

Artane2002 wrote: »

February and March brought some flurries. now that i think about it, i think we had a fairly decent northwesterly either in January or February that brought quite a few snow showers for us in Dublin, we usually stay dry in northwesterlies. i remember it being very cold too but I'm pretty sure it was a one day affair.

End of January start of February brought plenty of snow showers to the east.
Again the end of February first week of March another blast of snow showers.

Loughc · 11-11-2020 9:10am

Slashermcguirk wrote: »

Ok everyone cool the jets, it’s impossible to forecast a week ahead and we are still in Autumn. There will be snow in December, just have that feeling. Happy for the mild muck to be with us now, would rather the cold in December and January

Just silly. Firstly this is the Winter season not Autumn. And the same lads who are forecasting Winter every year haven't missed a beat they're spot on every year. There won't be snow in December, we'd be lucky if the temps drop below double figures let alone drop below 0.

sryanbruen · 11-11-2020 10:03am

Artane2002 wrote: »

February and March brought some flurries. now that i think about it, i think we had a fairly decent northwesterly either in January or February that brought quite a few snow showers for us in Dublin, we usually stay dry in northwesterlies. i remember it being very cold too but I'm pretty sure it was a one day affair.

Northwest had some snow showers and a dusting on 27 January whilst we got some flurries on 10 February during Storm Ciara which did settle somewhat initially but melted not long after. The 11th had a lot of snow falling but none of it settled, ground was saturated. We did have a couple of other days with snow falling too like 29 February but never settling for me with the exception of overnight into 12 March.

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's been incredibly boring since October 2018 bar spring this year. last winter marked the point that i lost interest in Irish weather. i expect this winter to be yet another "worst winter" ever for the third year in a row and the 5th time in the last six years. maybe if we all wish for mild weather then we'll get proper winter weather

I'm the same, a Dec 2018/Jan 2019 would probably be the last straw for me.

pauldry · 11-11-2020 10:06am

Maybe if it rains like today we will have a floody Winter to keep us interested

RedSteve · 11-11-2020 11:28am

I’m not sure if this is exactly the place to ask...
but Carrot Weather on iOS has several different sources for their weather forecast. Is there any consensus here on which source is best for Ireland?
Thanks!

Billcarson · 11-11-2020 10:23pm

Artane2002 wrote: »

it's been incredibly boring since October 2018 bar spring this year. last winter marked the point that i lost interest in Irish weather. i expect this winter to be yet another "worst winter" ever for the third year in a row and the 5th time in the last six years. maybe if we all wish for mild weather then we'll get proper winter weather

Yes,the last 2 yrs has been killing my interest in the weather too. Really has been a boring 2 yrs. If ever there was a day that sums up my feelings about it , it was a day like today, mild, dull muck and the current weather pattern we are in. Completely uninteresting.

Artane2002 · 11-11-2020 10:26pm

sryanbruen wrote: »

Northwest had some snow showers and a dusting on 27 January whilst we got some flurries on 10 February during Storm Ciara which did settle somewhat initially but melted not long after. The 11th had a lot of snow falling but none of it settled, ground was saturated. We did have a couple of other days with snow falling too like 29 February but never settling for me with the exception of overnight into 12 March.

I'm the same, a Dec 2018/Jan 2019 would probably be the last straw for me.

I don't remember seeing any settling snow last winter but you know your stuff so I'll take your word for it. interesting that we had settling snow on the 12th of March, March is becoming reliable for settling snow! 12 March 2020, 2 March 2019, numerous days in March 2018, 4th March 2016 all come to mind. October and March seem to be our winter months now, October 2018/19/20 all brought some cold weather. winter resumes in just under 4 months then

Slashermcguirk · 11-11-2020 11:08pm

Eh newsflash, we are still in Autumn! Do you really actually think winter starts in early November?? Even met eireann have winter starting on 1st December. Secondly it snowed last winter and we had buckets of snow in 2018. Just the usual negativity and moaning on here.

Get a grip! We don’t live in the Canadian Rockies but we still do get some good snow events. Take a look around Europe over the coming week, nowhere is below zero, not even the likes of Moscow, oslo, Helsinki, Stockholm.

quote="Loughc;115253087"]Just silly. Firstly this is the Winter season not Autumn. And the same lads who are forecasting Winter every year haven't missed a beat they're spot on every year. There won't be snow in December, we'd be lucky if the temps drop below double figures let alone drop below 0.[/quote]

highdef · 12-11-2020 1:34am

Loughc wrote: »

Firstly this is the Winter season not Autumn.

Just silly. This is the autumn season, not winter.

icesnowfrost · 12-11-2020 5:29am

There are trends we can follow but in my opinion it’s still way to early to call this winter as a dud. The next few weeks are not looking good at the moment for any decent cold weather.
The usual brief cold days in the mix but that’s all. Everything else is in FI. Speaking of which is there a model thread yet? Also a FI thread.

bazlers · 12-11-2020 7:03am

Looking forward to deep crunching snow this winter.
Must be one of the best sounds hearing snow crunching under foot.

Graces7 · 12-11-2020 9:23am

highdef wrote: »

Just silly. This is the autumn season, not winter.

Was wondering when this chestnut would arrive.. lol.. Winter is November for most of us non-tech met folks. Always has been; always will be.

The idea of November being autumn is more than " silly".

:rolleyes:

pauldry · 12-11-2020 9:45am

I think the idea of November being Winter ires some people as theres rarely snow in it but days and days of rain and wind are a signal for Winters start.

In school November was Winters start always and ever.

mcburns07 · 12-11-2020 11:14am

Graces7 wrote: »

Was wondering when this chestnut would arrive.. lol.. Winter is November for most of us non-tech met folks. Always has been; always will be.

The idea of November being autumn is more than " silly". :rolleyes:

It's absolutely not. Do you consider August autumn?

Graces7 · 12-11-2020 11:15am

pauldry wrote: »

I think the idea of November being Winter ires some people as theres rarely snow in it but days and days of rain and wind are a signal for Winters start.

In school November was Winters start always and ever.

Yep! We were well raised! Winter is here. Fire lit, soup simmering. WINTER!

Graces7 · 12-11-2020 11:22am

mcburns07 wrote: »

It's absolutely not. Do you consider August autumn?

Here we go! every winter this comes up!

There is no rule saying each season has the same number of months in it. So why try to impose that artificially?

August is summer; Sept and Oct are autumn, November is winter. and so on.

If you want to think differently, that is absolutely fine; free country and all that! But we were raised and taught as we believe and observe.

Tolerance please! And it is winter here.

Have a wonderful day!

Graces7 · 12-11-2020 11:24am

pauldry wrote: »

I think the idea of November being Winter ires some people as theres rarely snow in it but days and days of rain and wind are a signal for Winters start.

In school November was Winters start always and ever.

I think they are trying to standardise each season as three months?

Does not work.

Anyways, winter has arrived out here....off to light the fire..

12-11-2020 11:27am

I love this debate - A really good friend of mine who sadly passed this year (RIP) always claimed that Autumn was August, September and October. Winter was November, December and January. We had great craic debating this.

mcburns07 · 12-11-2020 11:46am

Graces7 wrote: »

Here we go! every winter this comes up!

There is no rule saying each season has the same number of months in it. So why try to impose that artificially?

August is summer; Sept and Oct are autumn, November is winter. and so on.

If you want to think differently, that is absolutely fine; free country and all that! But we were raised and taught as we believe and observe.

Tolerance please! And it is winter here.

Have a wonderful day!

So winter lasts for 5 months in your world? March is on average 1 degree colder than November so has more claim to being part of winter than November does in my books.

highdef · 12-11-2020 12:04pm

It's mid November and many trees still have leaves on them albeit brown, yellow and orange at this stage. I always thought that leaves fell from trees in the autumn season, not winter???

Also, February is joint coldest month of the year and I never see any green leaves on trees. Surely February can't be anything but winter???

Gonzo · 12-11-2020 12:13pm

Summer - June, July, August
Autumn - September, October, November
Winter - December, January, February
Spring - March, April, May

the above is officially the seasons we were told in school, now the weather may not always stick to the seasons above particularly in this country where similar conditions can pass through all 4 seasons.

Unfortunately when it comes to winter weather we often don't see the first signs of it till late January or early February when things begin to cool down more. Front loaded winters are an absolute rarity here. We usually get our snow just as Spring begins, usually not much more than a few flakes on the bin lids.

As for summer we usually get that in May and September, most of the time July and particularly August can be a rubbish autumnal month. If we had to pay for our seasons in this country i'd be looking for a refund every year on Winters and Summers. Autumn can pretty much strike at any stage throughout the whole year in this country.

Tazio · 12-11-2020 12:23pm

I'm no weather expert but love reading the models and discussions on here; it seems like we can arbitrarily order the seasons by months and read models up to T+120 and debate jet streams, barometric pressure drops, uppers and shear -> but the weather will still do it's own thing regardless of what we think!

As a general comment; this November has been miserable muck imo - the only good thing was in the last 48 hours the deluge of rain here has literally washed most of the decaying leaves and mud off our back-roads - I fear if this level of rain/flood continue the roads will go too.

A few weeks of cold weather would be great in Jan/Feb timeframe - but we'll see.

Thanks to all here for the interesting ramping

Graces7 · 12-11-2020 2:05pm

mcburns07 wrote: »

So winter lasts for 5 months in your world? March is on average 1 degree colder than November so has more claim to being part of winter than November does in my books.

Now where did I say that! roflol...

Autumn is Sept/October

Winter is November through Feb.

Spring is March and April . Everything starts growing and SPRINGING in March..

Summer? May .June , July and August

That is how I live it and if you live it differently that is fine too. It is not about temps and stats etc but about the life of the world we live in; plants and trees etc.

But as I said; if you see it differently? That is your privilege. I am not quarrelling with you! OK? OK!

So why quarrel if someone sees it differently?

Today here is pure WINTER!

Bless you!

Graces7 · 12-11-2020 2:09pm

Tazio wrote: »

I'm no weather expert but love reading the models and discussions on here; it seems like we can arbitrarily order the seasons by months and read models up to T+120 and debate jet streams, barometric pressure drops, uppers and shear -> but the weather will still do it's own thing regardless of what we think!

As a general comment; this November has been miserable muck imo - the only good thing was in the last 48 hours the deluge of rain here has literally washed most of the decaying leaves and mud off our back-roads - I fear if this level of rain/flood continue the roads will go too.

A few weeks of cold weather would be great in Jan/Feb timeframe - but we'll see.

Thanks to all here for the interesting ramping

Absolutely to your first para. lol....

It rarely upsets or bothers me what the weather does. I got used to severe vagaries in a decade on a northern Orkney island and now am doing the same out here. The weather does rule but then at my retired age I have no outside obligations. Today, indoors .. Plenty to do

mcburns07 · 12-11-2020 2:09pm

Graces7 wrote: »

Now where did I say that! roflol...

Autumn is Sept/October

Winter is November through Feb.

Spring is March and April . Everything starts growing and SPRINGING in March..

Summer? May .June , July and August

That is how I live it and if you live it differently that is fine too. It is not about temps and stats etc but about the life of the world we live in; plants and trees etc.

But as I said; if you see it differently? That is your privilege. I am not quarrelling with you! OK? OK!

So why quarrel if someone sees it differently?

Today here is pure WINTER!

Bless you!

I'll leave this here. You'd do well to take your own advice.

Graces7 wrote: »

The idea of November being autumn is more than " silly". :rolleyes:

BruceK0508 · 12-11-2020 2:17pm

I am not sure if anyone has pointed it out, But this winter seems to a crazy series of storms of all kinds all over America. Tropical storms in the east, winter storms in the west, tornadoes in the middle... I am constantly checking my climacell and shadow apps for updates for any storms headed my way. It seems that the entire year has been one disaster after another. Makes me wonder if 2021 is going to be better or worse.

snowgal · 12-11-2020 2:23pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Summer - June, July, August
Autumn - September, October, November
Winter - December, January, February
Spring - March, April, May

the above is officially the seasons we were told in school, now the weather may not always stick to the seasons above particularly in this country where similar conditions can pass through all 4 seasons.

Unfortunately when it comes to winter weather we often don't see the first signs of it till late January or early February when things begin to cool down more. Front loaded winters are an absolute rarity here. We usually get our snow just as Spring begins, usually not much more than a few flakes on the bin lids.

As for summer we usually get that in May and September, most of the time July and particularly August can be a rubbish autumnal month. If we had to pay for our seasons in this country i'd be looking for a refund every year on Winters and Summers. Autumn can pretty much strike at any stage throughout the whole year in this country.

well it just goes to show, we all have been taught differently growing up..:)
for me its always been:
Feb/Mar/April spring ( In school, St Brigid's day was the first day of spring)
May/June/July Summer
Aug/Sept/Oct Autumn
Nov/Dec/Jan Winter
and before people go mad, Im just saying that is what we were taught in school etc .....and in my mind I go with that now for the seasons....

Winter 20/21 - General Discussion

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