Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion Spring/Summer 2018

pad199207 · 28-04-2018 1:34pm

Sparks now near Dunmanway Cork

Meteorite58 · 28-04-2018 5:17pm

Localized heavy downpours, very heavy around Tralee town around 14.00 -15.00 with a lot of surface water. The car was showing 5C in town at 15.00. Just 1.2mm recorded here outside Tralee and 7.6C atm.

sumtings · 28-04-2018 5:53pm

Was indoors under the hail in west limerick about 3ish for about 30mins, very heavy, didn't see the lightning or hear the thunder associated with it but was impressive none the less.

Neddyusa · 28-04-2018 8:17pm

I notice this afternoon/evenings showers appear almost stationary on the radar.
So anyone unlucky enough to be under them must be getting a right soaking.
Meanwhile we avoided them completely - really was a fantastic Spring day - calm, dry and wall to wall sunshine.

Gaoth Laidir · 28-04-2018 9:53pm

Got a golfer's tan playing The Heritage near Monasterevin today. Perfect conditions; little or no breeze, lots of sun, with nice cloudscape building in the distance through the afternoon. Showers in all directions but completely missed us. Only around 13 degrees but felt very nice in the sun and was able to go around in just a polo. (I wore trousers too, don't worry).

Jpmarn · 29-04-2018 8:43am

I escaped the showers outside Limerick city with the city itself escaping. Could see the showers around and especially to the west of my location. Temperatures dropped from a high around 12c in early afternoon to an unseasonably 8c at around 5.45 according to the temperature gauge in my car.

SleetAndSnow · 29-04-2018 12:46pm

ME mentioning a risk of Thunderstorms in the West: https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/990545139042017281

Meteorite58 · 29-04-2018 2:26pm

Showers should start getting more intense coming into the afternoon. Big shower near Athlone atm producing sferics.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2018-04-29

Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sun 29 Apr 2018 - 05:59 UTC Mon 30 Apr 2018

ISSUED 07:45 UTC Sun 29 Apr 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Greatest potential exists over central and western Ireland during the afternoon / early evening - but given a notable lack of shear, lightning activity is unlikely to be widespread enough to warrant a SLGT. Since no marginal threat level currently exists in our system, have reluctantly issued a low-end SLGT to better highlight this potential.

SleetAndSnow · 29-04-2018 3:33pm

Some dark clouds around Cork City at the moment, Can't see the tops of them however as they are being covered. Heavy hail showers reported in places but none near me, hoping to see/hear something though. Cork Airport is however reporting that the clouds are Cumulonimbus.

Mainland Europe is a hive of storm activity at the moment though!

Colser · 29-04-2018 7:27pm

I think I've just heard thunder near Cork City.

Meteorite58 · 29-04-2018 7:41pm

Colser wrote: »

I think I've just heard thunder near Cork City.

Yea a couple of sferics showing up near Ballincollig, very heavy rain showing up too.

Netweather

Meteorite58 · 29-04-2018 11:03pm

Netweather

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Our meager few compared to the storms in Europe!

lolie · 29-04-2018 11:38pm

Meant to post this earlier today.
Was at a communion after party yesterday evening (Saturday) and just by luck spotted a lovely funnel cloud in the distance at 7 o'clock.
Probably about 7 -8 miles in the distance from looking at the radar return shortly after.
Must've lasted about 10 minutes and changed shape a few times.
The picture doesn't half do it justice as it's only a zoomed in phone pic, no one had a decent camera at hand.

Meteorite58 · 29-04-2018 11:48pm

Great catch lolie !

Oscar Bravo · 29-04-2018 11:48pm

Excellent photos lolie!

Donegal Storm · 29-04-2018 11:53pm

Nice capture, I've still never been lucky enough to see one

Doesn't look too far off a tornado in the last pic.

I'd send an email to John Tyrrell at UCC, his team do site investigations and keep a database of all tornadic events in the country so he'd definitely be interested in that

lolie · 29-04-2018 11:57pm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Excellent photos lolie!

Cheers Oscar but the photos are really poor compared to what it looked like in reality.
Of course it had to happen the one Saturday evening i couldn't take off and get a closer look, to many beers.

Iancar29 · 01-05-2018 8:57pm

Nice funnel Lolie, whereabouts was it taken?

lolie · 02-05-2018 12:41pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Nice funnel Lolie, whereabouts was it taken?

It was on the Virginia side of Oldcastle ian.

redsteveireland · 03-05-2018 9:29pm

Here's 2 from last Sunday, had my son taking pictures for me, trying to pass on thev weather bug.

Used to use imgur to imbed a smaller version of the pictures but can't get it to work on the phone. 😠

Meteorite58 · 09-05-2018 12:06am

Potential for Thunderstorms the weekend with a large area of very cold temperatures aloft and an upper trough which looks to me like it is in a negative tilt by Sunday. Charts showing potential from Fri. with big showers of rain and hail being forecast. Sunday could be quite active, will know more closer to the time. At the moment showing the most CAPE potential from the ECM on Sunday seen this year I believe.

jimmynokia · 10-05-2018 10:31pm

Lots of reports on Facebook that there is severe storms heading for UK. Hopefully we get a slice of the action.

Meteorite58 · 11-05-2018 3:23pm

Big convection getting going here in Kerry in good long spells of sunshine. A few might become electrified as they move inland.

Perhaps a chance of sferics along the South coast tonight and early morning and some overland tomorrow. Sunday doesnt have the same potential as earlier charts.

Oscar Bravo · 11-05-2018 7:24pm

Recent lightning south of Carlow

Meteorite58 · 11-05-2018 9:49pm

Im wondering if showers reach the South coast overnight could they produce sparks. Tomorrow looking like the best chance of some storms over the weekend with the Eastern half of the country most in the firing line, could be some big showers there tomorrow. Low chance of some activity in the W later tomorrow night perhaps ?

Meteorite58 · 11-05-2018 9:53pm

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/

Day 2 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Sat 12 May 2018 - 05:59 UTC Sun 13 May 2018

ISSUED 20:04 UTC Fri 11 May 2018

ISSUED BY: Dan

Sharpening upper trough will drift slowly across Ireland, while digging south over Biscay. Within the trough axis, cold air aloft will result in steep mid-level lapse rates, generating 300-600 J/kg CAPE in response to diurnal heating.

Deep convection will be ongoing at the start of the forecast period over the Celtic Sea, associated with a slowly-filling cut-off upper low. This convection will tend to weaken during the morning hours, with the focus then shifting northwards across the Republic of Ireland and eventually Northern Ireland. Under the trough axis, shear will be fairly weak and so pulse-type showers/storms are most expected - hence any lightning will tend to be short-lived and sporadic. Worth noting that subsequent model guidance have tended to make showers increasingly isolated compared to earlier runs, causing some uncertainty over likely coverage. Showers/storms will gradually decay through the evening, though further showers are likely close to Atlantic coasts overnight.

On the forward side of the upper trough, a frontal wave will develop over France, pushing rain northwards into SE England and East Anglia. The exact track / shape of this wave remains uncertain, and hence timing and areas affected. Either way, on the eastern flank some weak instability may be present, with perhaps an isolated lightning strike - hence the inclusion of a LOW threat level.