FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58 · 09-01-2020 9:47pm

Very unsettled next week with more or less each day up to the weekend showing some possibility of being windy or very windy.

Very wet at times. Cold airmass for the main been consistent now for a number of runs , showing wintry weather at times. Brief milder passages as fronts go through.

Feeling cold in the wind.

squarecircles · 10-01-2020 5:19pm

severe disturbance winding up on the 12z gfs for next Thursday,scraping past us to the west, dart board low, similar to the ECM which has a very vigourous storm off the south coast.

Harry Palmr · 10-01-2020 5:35pm

Hopefully that'll be a storm that pulls the jet stream north and gives us a HP breather.

Gonzo · 10-01-2020 6:39pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Hopefully that'll be a storm that pulls the jet stream north and gives us a HP breather.

I think any HP's that do come our way will be very short lived. The Atlantic is relentless this year and it hasn't really skipped a beat since September, making any complete nationwide settled days few and far between. The second half of January was shaping up to be a dry one with high pressure but now that picture is very different with the Atlantic very much in control over the next few weeks. Hopefully we get a complete change of scene in February and get some proper cold going and a much more wintry feel.

Donegal Storm · 10-01-2020 7:54pm

Hints of a pattern change in the medium term on the models at the moment, the PV finally lets its guard down over the Bering Strait with weak heights infiltrating.

From there the main PV lobe shifts to Siberia leaving a much weaker lobe over North America. If we have any chance of something other than westerlies this winter then that's what we want to see.

Nothing much of interest at the moment but something to keep an eye on at least :rolleyes:

Gonzo · 11-01-2020 7:05pm

A trend towards something colder towards the end of the month? The next week sees temperatures switching between cool and mild several times and remaining very unsettled. A very mild spell around 19th-21st January. After that the GFS is starting to trend cooler and slightly dryer with some cold signals at the very end of the run. Will the zonal winds weaken towards the end of January? A few of the runs are chilly enough at +384 hours

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-01-11&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

ens_image.php?geoid=64981&var=201&run=12&date=2020-01-11&model=gfs&member=ENS&bw=1

Hopefully these are the first baby steps towards a genuine change in the pattern for end of January/February.

Mortelaro · 11-01-2020 8:37pm

Gonzo wrote: »

Hopefully these are the first baby steps towards a genuine change in the pattern for end of January/February.

Hmmmmm......

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1216038952039321609?s=19

Kermit.de.frog · 11-01-2020 10:12pm

Happy with the trend today - seeing some meaningful changes now in the medium term.

Nothing to get excited about yet but finally...

Snow Garden · 11-01-2020 10:28pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Happy with the trend today - seeing some meaningful changes now in the medium term.

Nothing to get excited about yet but finally...

You're talking cold and possibly snow right? Fingers crossed.

Gonzo · 11-01-2020 11:36pm

Snow Garden wrote: »

You're talking cold and possibly snow right? Fingers crossed.

we are still very far from anything reliable but there are a few hints that things are about to change. We've had a raging relatively mild and very unsettled Atlantic pattern for 5 months already, it's about time a change is ready to happen. My guess is it's going to be another late one, perhaps some wintryness in February, but we could sneak a few cold weeks in March, so I would say flakes could happen into February and on into March. We should at least get a decent dry and frosty week of high pressure at some point and maybe a few days of wintry showers. Considering the muck we've been through the months, i'll take anything that's going at this stage.

nacho libre · 12-01-2020 4:19pm

Naggdefy wrote: »

Can a major depression heading into the Artic have any impact on breaking such a strong vortex or has the change to propagate from higher in the atmosphere like a SSW?

Yes some warmings are initiated from below in the troposphere. i remember one winter where very warm southerly winds went up into the arctic, which led to the troposhere polar vortex being displaced.

Naggdefy · 12-01-2020 4:28pm

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes some warmings are initiated from below in the troposphere. i remember one winter where very warm southerly winds went up into the arctic, which led to the troposhere polar vortex being displaced.

Yes temp hovered around 0C at the north pole. I think the 2015-2016 winter.

Neddyusa · 13-01-2020 12:01pm

Yr.no is forecasting 3 ice days in a row next Sunday - Tuesday and no posts about it on here.
I can't post charts.
Reading this thread you'd have thought there was very mild weather only due for the forseeable. Or are there changes in FI today?

nacho libre · 13-01-2020 12:11pm

it looks like it will settle down around the 17th, what happens to the high after that could be interesting- perhaps a decent polar maritime, or if we are lucky a northerly

sryanbruen · 13-01-2020 1:54pm

Neddyusa wrote: »

Yr.no is forecasting 3 ice days in a row next Sunday - Tuesday and no posts about it on here.
I can't post charts.
Reading this thread you'd have thought there was very mild weather only due for the forseeable. Or are there changes in FI today?

Very minimal chance for ice days. As nacho libre says above, the weather expected to settle down through the weekend into next week with cooler and drier conditions. Been multiple changes with this already though so don't take it for gospel.

The current likely outcome following this more settled interval is for the high to descend back southwards and bring in the westerlies again.

Meteorite58 · 14-01-2020 10:13pm

Pressure building the weekend and ECM showing it staying nearby until about Thurs. GFS shows it breaking down about Weds.

Gonzo · 15-01-2020 6:10pm

looking forward to a few days of dry, settled weather with this area of high pressure and maybe even a frost or two. Hopefully we will get more than 2 or 3 days out of this before the likely scenario of the Atlantic rolling back in soon afterwards. Still absolutely no sign of any blocking or decent cold on the horizon. At least there are signs of a settled few days to escape the Atlantic deluges for a few days.

pauldry · 15-01-2020 7:47pm

Yes it was originally supposed to start Thursday for a full week now more likely Saturday and Sunday before 90 days more rain after Monday evening

Logan Roy · 15-01-2020 8:22pm

Gonzo wrote: »

At least there are signs of a settled few days to escape the Atlantic deluges for a few days.

You'd hardly call the rainfall we've had in the past few weeks "deluges"

Gonzo · 15-01-2020 8:34pm

Logan Roy wrote: »

You'd hardly call the rainfall we've had in the past few weeks "deluges"

It did go dryer over the Christmas for a short while but really there has been very little escape from rain and not enough dry days to dry out the land. Here in Meath we had several very heavy spells of rain over the past week and there is plenty of water logging around once again in the fields. The charts show that we may go 3 or 4 days without rain next week, but at this stage I think we need a few weeks away from it!

Logan Roy · 15-01-2020 9:00pm

Gonzo wrote: »

It did go dryer over the Christmas for a short while but really there has been very little escape from rain and not enough dry days to dry out the land. Here in Meath we had several very heavy spells of rain over the past week and there is plenty of water logging around once again in the fields. The charts show that we may go 3 or 4 days without rain next week, but at this stage I think we need a few weeks away from it!

Agreed, looks like it will be mostly dry in Cork for 5+ days starting Friday

esposito · 15-01-2020 11:22pm

The weather here is so predictable lately. After this upcoming dry spell with cold, frosty nights (which I welcome with open arms) according to bbc weather it will turn unsettled again with more wind and rain later next week. If only the high could move north of us instead of always dropping south. Us coldies need a nice surprise and we are well overdue it. There’s still hope though. Let’s see what Feb and early March bring. After that I lose interest.

pauldry · 15-01-2020 11:42pm

Wer like the opposite to Australia

Could we share some of this wet with them

Every month of these

August
September
October
November
December
January

Has had over 100mm of rain in Sligo
Oh sorry January is only on 56mm yet but halfway
August had 204mm!!

typhoony · 15-01-2020 11:42pm

esposito wrote: »

The weather here is so predictable lately. After this upcoming dry spell with cold, frosty nights (which I welcome with open arms) according to bbc weather it will turn unsettled again with more wind and rain later next week. If only the high could move north of us instead of always dropping south. Us coldies need a nice surprise and we are well overdue it. There’s still hope though. Let’s see what Feb and early March bring. After that I lose interest.

The weather is never predictable, as you say if the high can move west and build north, a bit like the 18z which is a glancing blow from the north but could easily shift and become a direct hit...

typhoony · 15-01-2020 11:48pm

GFS 18z definitely gone full on cold, will it be an outlier or a trend in the next few days...

Harry Palmr · 15-01-2020 11:55pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Hopefully that'll be a storm that pulls the jet stream north and gives us a HP breather.

typhoony · 15-01-2020 11:58pm

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Storms don't pull jet streams, it's the other way round the jet steers the storms, the jet buckling after the storm is what could lead to a very cold and snowy period of weather

esposito · 15-01-2020 11:59pm

typhoony wrote: »

GFS 18z definitely gone full on cold, will it be an outlier or a trend in the next few days...

The former and you know it. It’s the pub run after all

sryanbruen · 16-01-2020 12:02am

Very appropriate that this is appearing around a similar time to the failed easterly of January last year.

Harry Palmr · 16-01-2020 12:02am

Hey I'm taking the credit. No one else was willing to suggest this was coming.

BLIZZARD7 · 16-01-2020 1:09am

Very cold northerly on this evening's 18z GFS run with support from the ensembles... hmmm will be interesting to see if there's any support for this on tomorrow's output.

Gonzo · 16-01-2020 1:27am

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Very cold northerly on this evening's 18z GFS run with support from the ensembles... hmmm will be interesting to see if there's any support for this on tomorrow's output.

I fear we will be back to the westerlies by the morning. The Pub run has hinted at cold several times over the past month or more and by the morning the cold runs are nowhere to be seen. Fingers crossed that we are on to something here but with the relentless force of the Atlantic and PV this winter, it's going to take some serious luck to draw in a proper northerly or easterly for more than a few days.

BLIZZARD7 · 16-01-2020 2:11am

Gonzo wrote: »

I fear we will be back to the westerlies by the morning. The Pub run has hinted at cold several times over the past month or more and by the morning the cold runs are nowhere to be seen. Fingers crossed that we are on to something here but with the relentless force of the Atlantic and PV this winter, it's going to take some serious luck to draw in a proper northerly or easterly for more than a few days.

Very true, nice to see it pop up in the 8-10 day timeframe and not at +384hrs though. MJO on the move gives me some hope that this is the pattern change coming - having said that, I agree it will require some luck to suddenly be plunged into a deep cold pattern with the current state of the PV.

Mortelaro · 16-01-2020 10:49am

Our climate (which is all we have to go on stm because everything is normal) suggests an easter cold shot is the form horse if at all
Fleeting glimpses of Fantasy beyond 8 days in models is fantasy

typhoony · 16-01-2020 11:49am

the shot of cold air from the north will probably miss us to the east, think we might have to wait until mid-February to get a blast of deflected cold from the east. anyway by this weekend we should have a better idea on the location of the high and more importantly if the Greenland High can get established.

snaps · 16-01-2020 1:43pm

typhoony wrote: »

the shot of cold air from the north will probably miss us to the east, think we might have to wait until mid-February to get a blast of deflected cold from the east. anyway by this weekend we should have a better idea on the location of the high and more importantly if the Greenland High can get established.

Problem is, here in the east there is no cold what so ever. I've never known a winter like this since I have lived in Southern Poland.
That Atlantic is influencing as far east as Moscow.

In FI we have constant cold weather which is the norm for where I live, but just like Ireland now, it gets pushed back and back. Everything is coming from the south west here, due to all those strong LP's coming up the Atlantic.

Gonzo · 16-01-2020 3:30pm

and of course last nights run of decent cold is nowhere to be seen. Short spell of high pressure next week then the westerlies take over.

typhoony · 16-01-2020 4:46pm

snaps wrote: »

Problem is, here in the east there is no cold what so ever. I've never known a winter like this since I have lived in Southern Poland.
That Atlantic is influencing as far east as Moscow.

In FI we have constant cold weather which is the norm for where I live, but just like Ireland now, it gets pushed back and back. Everything is coming from the south west here, due to all those strong LP's coming up the Atlantic.

it has been very mild to the east, although that can change quickly with a blocking high in the Atlantic

Gonzo · 16-01-2020 5:33pm

northern and eastern and perhaps central Europe could turn much colder in about a weeks time with their first proper winter plunge. The end of the current GFS run tries to get a Scandinavian high going but I feel this will just collapse back into Russia as the Atlantic prevents it from staying there, but we shall see.

Billcarson · 16-01-2020 8:31pm

Well tonight's ecm for next weekend is showing something similar to what the pub run showed for next weekend last night . Not that I would take 240hr charts by the ecm too seriously but perhaps a chance of a cold snap of some kind before the end of this month??

Meteorite58 · 16-01-2020 10:19pm

Billcarson wrote: »

Well tonight's ECM 18Z for next weekend is showing something similar to what the pub run showed for next weekend last night . Not that I would take 240hr charts by the ecm too seriously but perhaps a chance of a cold snap of some kind before the end of this month??

That is a nice chart all right Billcarson. IF that verified it would be a very cold windy day with wintry showers streaming in from the NW, quite possible snow showers and Lightning possible too. Might even get a few troughs or a polar low or...... oh come on just give us a bit of winter fun for a few days!

A good point of reference to see if something comes of it or if it just disappears , something to keep an eye on.

Meteorite58 · 17-01-2020 9:41pm

Similar looking cold windy and wintry charts from around next Sunday on tonight's ECM 12Z. Might be brief, weather moving in from the wings perhaps ?, and the jet is well fired up.

Meteorite58 · 19-01-2020 9:31pm

The ECM began to show milder SW'lys starting over next weekend and pushed the colder weather that was originally being shown for then away further . Tonight's run is showing a wet and windy Sat into Sunday and getting increasingly cold on Sunday well into the following week, the colder air sourced from Canada, Greenalnd and possibly more Arctic sourced air as the week goes on. Currently showing the Atlantic getting a bit more lively again and has a wintry look to it, possibly back to spells of rain, sleet, hail and showers of wet snow on higher ground giving white peaks. Wintry weather atm favoring the W side of the country. Looking like there could be some windy spells also . Has a strong jet over us and more so S of us from the weekend.

After Sunday the GFS is showing the same sourced cold air getting wintry and some disturbances creating windy conditions ( GFS showing Sunday potentially very windy or stormy nearby on the latest run but long long way off ).

See will that trend stick this time.

squarecircles · 20-01-2020 2:13pm

Kermit.de.frog · 20-01-2020 2:22pm

Looks like a breakthrough on the way and a much colder and unstable northwesterly flow bringing the prospect of heavy snow showers by Sunday or Monday. A long way out though.

UW144-21.GIF?20-06

Kamili · 20-01-2020 3:03pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks like a breakthrough on the way and a much colder and unstable northwesterly flow bringing the prospect of heavy snow showers by Sunday or Monday. A long way out though.

I hope it happens and doesn't dissolve with 2 days to go as seems to be the way lately.
I'm really done with the wet mild rainy weather at this stage.

froog · 20-01-2020 8:36pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Looks like a breakthrough on the way and a much colder and unstable northwesterly flow bringing the prospect of heavy snow showers by Sunday or Monday. A long way out though.

squarecircles · 21-01-2020 12:16am

Meteorite58 · 21-01-2020 12:40am

Most stand out feature at the moment is a deepening low or Lows showing up off the W /NW on the models around next Monday. GFS stronger than the ECM at the moment . Long way to go to but good to watch the shape of this materialize over the coming days. Looking windy for a few days next week.

The colder sourced air maybe around for a few days and possibly milder again by Thurs.

Some wintry showers showing up . Very cold days and nights with wind chill a factor.

squarecircles · 21-01-2020 1:20pm

GFS 06Z STORM

FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2019 / 2020 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST