Storm Barbara - 23rd December 2016

fraxinus1 · 19-12-2016 8:37pm

One of the few times that I am genuinely delighted to see a major downgrade in the forecast! Gales and rain are no bother but some of the potential scenarios earlier were worrying. To be honest I have gotten use to the near calm conditions so far this year. The better weather has made this side of th ed winter go quicker as I have been able to get outside to do stuff around the house on most days.

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2016 8:47pm

Put together some of the model projections for Fri as it stands at the moment

3HtRdUk.gif?1

Meteorite58 · 19-12-2016 9:30pm

Fair shot of rain also in the W and NW.

fE7qLKU.jpg?1

ninebeanrows · 19-12-2016 10:32pm

Significant jog north as often the case in these situations.

However, a lot more model output to trundle through before the event - so expect more changes.

ninebeanrows · 19-12-2016 11:00pm

A continued northerly trend in the track of Friday's low.

If we disregard the 0z runs I suppose it was always suggested it would track in this sort of direction.

A vigorous low nonetheless will create dangerous conditions along Atlantic coasts.

gfs-0-90.png?18?18

ninebeanrows · 19-12-2016 11:02pm

A lucky miss on the 18z.

gfs-0-96.png?18

Villain · 19-12-2016 11:14pm

Poor RTE TV forecast after nine news, nothing beyond Friday shown

JCX BXC · 19-12-2016 11:16pm

Villain wrote: »

Poor RTE TV forecast after nine news, nothing beyond Friday shown

Suppose they don't want to give a Christmas day storm if they're not sure of it actually happening.

ninebeanrows · 19-12-2016 11:18pm

GFS 18z brings widespread gales on Christmas Day. Very windy nationwide, particularly across the northern half of the country.

You'd probably expected a 60-65kt gust at Dublin Airport in that setup.

gfs-0-141-3h.png?18

JCX BXC · 19-12-2016 11:20pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS 18z brings widespread gales on Christmas Day. Very windy nationwide, particularly across the northern half of the country.

You'd probably expected a 60-65kt gust at Dublin Airport in that setup.

All the flights will be diverting!

Oh wait......

Att vara en hest · 19-12-2016 11:49pm

Flying out from Dublin on Thursday.. should I expect delays? Or does it not start until Friday?

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2016 12:16am

I think the latest GFS 18Z run has upgraded the storm on Fri, gusting to around 80 km/h overland perhaps, 100 to 120 km/h in Atlantic coastal counties, perhaps more in the NW/ N .

Mean speeds

JCX BXC · 20-12-2016 12:19am

Att vara en hest wrote: »

Flying out from Dublin on Thursday.. should I expect delays? Or does it not start until Friday?

Even in wind, it's impossible to forecast delays in aviation, delays can arise out of anything.

goat2 · 20-12-2016 1:30am

Looking at the charts and news this evening, this could travel further north giving us less of a hit,

pauldry · 20-12-2016 1:35am

not looking half as bad at present but danger still there...one big wobble is all thats required

some models have more mild weather after 27th.

Xenji · 20-12-2016 1:59am

Achill Island Coast Guard currently have this on their Facebook page, updated at 22.27.

#StormBarbara Update.

*** Storm/Violent Storm/Hurricane Force Winds ***

Friday - Strong Gale gusting to Storm Force 10. Winds mainly from the S & SW then W. Peak winds expected Friday morning and early afternoon. Damaging gusts in excess of 110 kmh expected. ORANGE warning expected by Wednesday. All time scales can change as we are still a number of days off yet.

Sunday - Christmas Day - Violent Storm with Hurricane Force gusts. Winds mainly from the SW then W. Shorter storm as main winds are expected in the early hours of the morning through to late morning. Damaging gusts in excess of of 145 kmh expected. ORANGE warning expected by Thursday or Friday. If the storm maintains its strength expect a RED warning by Saturday. As above all time scales are subject to change as we are still a number of days off yet.

kittensmittens · 20-12-2016 4:02am

JCX BXC wrote: »

Main wind events appear to be Friday and Sunday, Saturday appears to be the lull in the middle.

It all depends on wind direction, if its directly westerly/northwesterly, Dublin will cope fine, if the wind is a very strong and gusty southwesterly, you'll likely be diverted to Shannon or Belfast, possibly Cork. Sometime flights divert to Liverpool and Manchester, but that's usually Ryanair once Shannon gets full.

On the flip side.....I'm flying out to Philly on the 23rd from Dub(morn). What way will this work if the high winds transpire friday?

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2016 8:21am

After seeing the 0z runs of the models you can close this thread I think. The mooted storms now miss us by some distance, especially Fridays one. It will be breezy on Christmas morning in the north but in my part of the world it wont even be that I think. in fact the models have completely changed overnight in other respects too.

JCX BXC · 20-12-2016 9:13am

kittensmittens wrote: »

On the flip side.....I'm flying out to Philly on the 23rd from Dub(morn). What way will this work if the high winds transpire friday?

You'll land somewhere don't worry

If people would like, I'll update closer to the time how various airports could be affected by the expected wind strength/direction.

km79 · 20-12-2016 9:31am

Most people blissfully unaware that Armageddon has been avoided

irishgeo · 20-12-2016 9:35am

Xenji wrote: »

Achill Island Coast Guard currently have this on their Facebook page, updated at 22.27.

They love to overhype things.

ninebeanrows · 20-12-2016 10:41am

Still some uncertainty among ensembles at this stage.

Would not write off disruption yet. More runs needed.

ninebeanrows · 20-12-2016 11:17am

Christmas Day looks the more risky day IMO

gfs-0-126.png?6

HighLine · 20-12-2016 11:38am

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

After seeing the 0z runs of the models you can close this thread I think. The mooted storms now miss us by some distance, especially Fridays one. It will be breezy on Christmas morning in the north but in my part of the world it wont even be that I think. in fact the models have completely changed overnight in other respects too.

It has happened so many times over the last few years where an impending "storm of the century" takes a massive northerly shift and completely misses Ireland as it gets closer.

Either MET need to stop issuing warnings so far out or some preemptive mental adjustment of charts needs to happen before the headlines of doom spread among the masses.

HighLine · 20-12-2016 11:52am

Could be a bit blowy in the northwest of Scotland on Christmas Day though.

mickger844posts · 20-12-2016 12:05pm

Friday's storm officially named Storm Barbara. Looks like Storm Conor to follow on Xmas day.

Maidhci · 20-12-2016 12:06pm

HighLine wrote: »

It has happened so many times over the last few years where an impending "storm of the century" takes a massive northerly shift and completely misses Ireland as it gets closer.

Either MET need to stop issuing warnings so far out or some preemptive mental adjustment of charts needs to happen before the headlines of doom spread among the masses.

I think you need to put this into perspective - in fairness to ME, they warned of the potential for stormy conditions NOT issued warnings as you state, to the best of my knowledge. I think I have heard most of their forecasts over the past week and I consider that they have been prudent in the circumstances. Hopefully, the storms will not materialize but in the event that they occurred and no advance notifications having been issued, I wonder what the reaction would be!

MarkKellyIND · 20-12-2016 12:11pm

when is this due to arrive

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2016 12:27pm

Again the 6z gfs shows these storms as Scotland only events at this stage. Breezy in the north, not even that in the south. Good news for the time of year I think. Wouldn't blame ME for being prudent but if the 12z gfs and ecm follow this theme I think we are out of the woods.

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2016 12:49pm

Thankfully the worst of the Storm is staying well North but IMO we are still going to have some strong winds especially along the Atlantic Seaboard from around 04.00 and spreading across the country quickly in the morning and should be cleared by early afternoon for the most part but will remain very windy on the NW and N coasts.

I would not underestimate the strength of the winds that will cross the country early Fri morning. Potentially very blustery squally conditions with wind driven rain.

HensVassal · 20-12-2016 1:35pm

I will be flying into Dublin late on Dec 23rd. Am I in trouble? 2010 on the 23rd I spent 3 nights in a foreign airport because of the snow.

nacho libre · 20-12-2016 2:04pm

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Again the 6z gfs shows these storms as Scotland only events at this stage. Breezy in the north, not even that in the south. Good news for the time of year I think. Wouldn't blame ME for being prudent but if the 12z gfs and ecm follow this theme I think we are out of the woods.

What we all need to remember is two things: The GFS tends to depict massive storms seven days out, then downgrades them closer to the time. Storm systems, usually, tend to track further north than first depicted. It will be fairly windy in the far north west, but it will be standard winter fare, i think.

JanuarySnowstor · 20-12-2016 2:07pm

Weathercheck wrote: »

Christmas Day looks the more risky day IMO

If you live in Northwest Scotland

Cosmo Kramer · 20-12-2016 2:16pm

nacho libre wrote: »

What we all need to remember is two things: The GFS tends to depict massive storms seven days out, then downgrades them closer to the time. Storm systems, usually, tend to track further north than first depicted. It will be fairly windy in the far north west, but it will be standard winter fare, i think.

I agree with all this but I do wonder, after all the years of weather watching on here, why the various models can't be adjusted to take account of some of these repeated changes from early predictions that we see time and again. Surely the information gained through actual events should allow the models to be improved so that things like movement of storms further north can show up earlier and we get better forecasts as a result?

pauldry · 20-12-2016 2:46pm

Though serious storms not likely I have seen lots of storms that have become a nowcast event due to kinks in the jet last minute

A couple of years ago Munster got badly hit in February due to this and in 1997 the Christmas eve storm intensified lots at the end.

Some minor storms of the past few Winters have been downgraded only to be upgraded to 130kph last minute which is serious enough.

The one on Christmas Day could do this in Donegal and the 23rd storm could be 100 or 110 in Malin

Iancar29 · 20-12-2016 3:28pm

pauldry wrote: »

Though serious storms not likely I have seen lots of storms that have become a nowcast event due to kinks in the jet last minute

A couple of years ago Munster got badly hit in February due to this and in 1997 the Christmas eve storm intensified lots at the end.

Some minor storms of the past few Winters have been downgraded only to be upgraded to 130kph last minute which is serious enough.

The one on Christmas Day could do this in Donegal and the 23rd storm could be 100 or 110 in Malin

Very good point. A reason why I better not see posts like " damp squib, meh why was this even a warning ..blah blah blah... "

Rebelbrowser · 20-12-2016 5:18pm

The 12z gfs has the 23rd and 25th storms even further north. As the guys have said it could still change but we do appear to be out of the woods. The storms are also moving through quicker, one positive of this being that the colder air arrives around midday on Xmas day so the big day will feel pretty seasonal.

23rd

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016122012/gfs-0-72.png?12?12

25th

gfs-0-120.png?12?12

Cherry Blossom Girl · 20-12-2016 7:34pm

Could these storms still be bad in lowland Scotland? (Sorry, I'm not used to interpreting these charts). My boyfriend is supposed to fly in from Edinburgh on the afternoon of the 23rd.

Clonmel1000 · 20-12-2016 7:35pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Very good point. A reason why I better not see posts like " damp squib, meh why was this even a warning ..blah blah blah... "

Almost as annoying as the posts in October predicting a white Christmas.

JCX BXC · 20-12-2016 10:34pm

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Almost as annoying as the posts in October predicting a white Christmas.

Not as bad as constant whining about out how bad our climate is! It's nothing new!:D

pedigree 6 · 20-12-2016 11:14pm

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not as bad as constant whining about out how bad our climate is! It's nothing new!:D

The weather is the weather and will always be the weather.
It neither cares nor worries about you or me.
It rages, thunders, mists, freezes, shines and dries.
So the weather is the weather and will always be the weather.

(I must take up writing for a living);):p

Burts Bee · 20-12-2016 11:17pm

Flying cork to Newcastle on Friday avo. Any ideas what we should expect??

Meteorite58 · 20-12-2016 11:55pm

Burts Bee wrote: »

Flying cork to Newcastle on Friday avo. Any ideas what we should expect??

Met office has issued warnings and guidance for UK

Fri morning until the afternoon is going to be windy ( quite blustery for a time ) and wet as the fronts go through, clearing in the afternoon but it then moves on to England. I would think the worst of it clears from the Scottish border down by early evening, remaining windy over Scotland.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alerts;reg=3;sess=b9ae3a90ae47bdde99c64219206f57c7

Meteorite58 · 21-12-2016 1:01am

Was wondering if we could get a substantial squall line crossing the country on Fri early morning ?

L3fqtf5.png?1

Meteorite58 · 21-12-2016 1:05am

A few gust charts for the record ( will be interesting looking back how well the models worked ). Im still thinking it is going to be very windy for a time especially when the fronts go through.

pauldry · 21-12-2016 1:09am

looks like it and localized mini twisters for the eagle eyed.

phones at the ready

gugsy · 21-12-2016 1:48am

Meteorite58 wrote:

A few gust charts for the record ( will be interesting looking back how well the models worked ). Im still thinking it is going to be very windy for a time especially when the fronts go through.

I agree force 7-9 possibly 10 in the north. Xmas day is looking the same as models showing the centre passing close to the north coast but a lot less intensity then Fri's storm.

Iancar29 · 21-12-2016 12:13pm

pauldry wrote: »

looks like it and localized mini twisters for the eagle eyed.

phones at the ready

Fixed that for ya

Calina · 21-12-2016 12:16pm

Am I reading this correctly? 24 December nice and peaceful? Due into Cork around 3pm, flying from Paris. Risk of bumpiness or diversion low?

JCX BXC · 21-12-2016 12:41pm

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for Coastal regions and high ground of Donegal, Galway and Mayo
Very windy on Friday: Southerly winds, later west to southwest of 65 to 75 km/h with severe gusts between 100 and 120 km/h.
Issued:Wednesday 21 December 2016 10:00
Valid:Friday 23 December 2016 06:00 to Friday 23 December 2016 18:00

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Rest of the country
Very windy on Friday: Southerly winds, later west to southwest of 50 to 65 km/h with gusts between 90 and 110 km/h, strongest on exposed coasts.
Issued:Wednesday 21 December 2016 10:00
Valid:Friday 23 December 2016 06:00 to Friday 23 December 2016 18:00

Storm Barbara - 23rd December 2016

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