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Storm Barbara - 23rd December 2016

  • 18-12-2016 1:37pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    The Christmas Day storm!
    It already looks epic from 7 days beforehand.
    The Question is will it be too windy on the day for Santy and the reindeer to land safely??:P


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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 655 ✭✭✭ eastmayo


    Met eireann highlighted the storm for next weekend on the farming weather....extremely windy or stormy xmass eve nite into Sunday


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Mods given the forecast for next week with the possibility of stormy conditions should we open a thread for this, delete if you don't think so


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 nagdefy


    The timing is awful. Hopefully it's not going to become Ireland's Cyclone Tracy which occurred on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day 1974 and basically flattened Darwin, Australia. Obviously a far milder version of that forecast but there's a chance a destructive enough storm could happen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy

    I remember in the summer of 1988 watching a 2 part (consecutive nights) TV show on RTE on Cyclone Tracy. It has stayed with me since.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    nagdefy wrote: »
    The timing is awful. Hopefully it's not going to become Ireland's Cyclone Tracy which occurred on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day 1974 and basically flattened Darwin, Australia. Obviously a far milder version of that forecast but there's a chance a destructive enough storm could happen.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy

    I remember in the summer of 1988 watching a 2 part (consecutive nights) TV show on RTE on Cyclone Tracy. It has stayed with me since.

    My own personal worst experience of bad wind storms has to be storm Darwin on the 12th Feb 2014. All my time farming here I've never experienced anything like it or the damage caused. It was 6 days before electricity was restored to this part of wexford.
    There was trees down on all the roads (some blown over from their roots, others like big oak and beech trees snapped like twigs middle ways).
    There was roofs blown off sheds everywhere. We were ok but some of the cows were calved at the time and every day since the storm we were told that electricity would be back that evening, but never happened and if you ventured in the yard it was unbearable to listen to the cows bawling at you to be milked.
    Eventually we got a generator and got them milked before the power came back.

    But the damage to some other farmers was unbelievable. A farmer near the mountain had their milking parlour roof blown off and it even ripped the roof panel off on his tractor. Then some neighbours had tiles and slates blown off their dwelling houses and a large section of forestry on the mountain was flattened.

    So while I am intrigued by our different weather conditions, you kind of don't want to see the same damage done again as before. But looking at the conditions that spawned Darwin you can kind of see similarities to this forecasted storm.
    Very Strong Jetstream - Check.
    Intense cold air pool in the north atlantic - Check.

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/2014StormDarwin.pdf


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 nagdefy


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    My own personal worst experience of bad wind storms has to be storm Darwin on the 12th Feb 2014. All my time farming here I've never experienced anything like it or the damage caused. It was 6 days before electricity was restored to this part of wexford.
    There was trees down on all the roads (some blown over from their roots, others like big oak and beech trees snapped like twigs middle ways).
    There was roofs blown off sheds everywhere. We were ok but some of the cows were calved at the time and every day since the storm we were told that electricity would be back that evening, but never happened and if you ventured in the yard it was unbearable to listen to the cows bawling at you to be milked.
    Eventually we got a generator and got them milked before the power came back.

    But the damage to some other farmers was unbelievable. A farmer near the mountain had their milking parlour roof blown off and it even ripped the roof panel off on his tractor. Then some neighbours had tiles and slates blown off their dwelling houses and a large section of forestry on the mountain was flattened.

    So while I am intrigued by our different weather conditions, you kind of don't want to see the same damage done again as before. But looking at the conditions that spawned Darwin you can kind of see similarities to this forecasted storm.
    Very Strong Jetstream - Check.
    Intense cold air pool in the north atlantic - Check.

    http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/2014StormDarwin.pdf

    It was something else. We were in the middle of calving too but have a suckler herd and hadn't the pressure of milk. But the usual hassles with getting water to them etc with electricity gone. At home there were 2 hours that afternoon between 3 and 5pm that i don't recall being surpassed in storm intensity. Kilkenny city declared a state of emergency.

    1997 Christmas eve just about equalled it at times for me. I had a bit of misadventure bringing a mare in from a field who reared up frightened and hit me with a front foot knocking me out for an hour! It was too dangerous to go to casualty and 20 yrs ago we'd want to be half dead to go anyway.

    http://met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1997_storm.PDF


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  • Registered Users Posts: 726 ✭✭✭ Agent_47


    Bring it on, Storm Barbara better be good. Peanuts, wine, candles and camera at the ready :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Father Christmas better have some extra Reindeer power!


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,360 ✭✭✭ kub


    What is the actual forecast?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    While all eyes are on Christmas eve / day we should keep an eye for the potentially very windy/ stormy weather on Fri also now starting to come in to a more reliable timeframe ( but of course open to change ). One conciliation is it looks to pass over quickly on latest runs.

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    GrnHE4j.gif


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  • Registered Users Posts: 845 tylercollins


    It can stay away until I land in Dublin midday Christmas Eve!


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Considering the ECM and GEM, the chances of a stormy Christmas day are low.
    Oddly this also decreases the chances of any flakes as the ECM is quite mild.
    Next.....


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Siobhan Ryan on Radio 1 forecast there "we will probably see a few named storms before years end and we in Met Eireann are keeping a close eye on Friday at the moment"


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Fri looking increasingly windy

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    YvvDPP8.gif

    850hPa ECMWF

    DHedllK.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Achill Island Coastguard

    *** UPDATE - Early Violent Storm/Hurricane (F11/F12) Weather Indication ***

    We indicated on Friday that we could be in for a significant weather event. This prediction seems to becoming accurate. This is our forecast so far.

    Gales - expected Tuesday.
    Gales - expected Friday & Saturday.
    Violent Storm/Hurricane (F11/12) expected Sunday - Christmas Day. If this forecast is correct expect Met Éireann to issue a RED weather warning. Sea swell is predicted to be in excess of 40 ft offshore. Please be prepared. We will give daily updates as we approach these events and upgrade or downgrade the warnings accordingly.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Yikes :eek:


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,643 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Yikes :eek:

    This is not good


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭ goat2


    Lets hope homes have gas cooking facilities in their homes, and that our homes will not be damaged, thanks for the warnings, will keep an eye on here, and watch MT,s predictions, always great.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,470 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


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    UYGf7DD.png?1


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,151 ✭✭✭ jimbobaloobob


    hardly fall as snow christmas day will it?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,215 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Quite variable on the models from day to day and from model to model, indicating that resolution of the various waves entering the Atlantic from North America are not well resolved yet. I will make sure that we have an appropriate warning thread if we reach model consensus at any point soon, the absence of this explains why there is no such thread yet.

    GFS has the strongest storm depiction for 25th, GEM leads for 23rd and ECM has backed off a bit on all of its earlier storminess. Jet stream is abnormally strong at present time over eastern North America; lots of energy available to spin up a deep low over the Atlantic but models are having problems picking the right slot and speed. Energy builds to about 28th-29th so missed opportunities won't necessarily cancel this watch. Not particularly mild in the outlook period so some chance that these storms could have wintry showers at either end with mild sectors brief and passing through very quickly.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    EC brings a storm across the country Friday.

    Models beginning to intensify that system into powerful storm


  • Registered Users Posts: 288 ✭✭ spoonerhead


    Dear storms, where have you been the last three months? You then show up when I don't want you, what a load of crap.

    I am traveling with my family and a dog from Holyhead to Dublin on the Swift ferry Friday. The way it's looking I can't see that one sailing I'm just hoping the 3 hour sailing will sail that day...


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,364 ✭✭✭ highdef


    I'm just hoping the 3 hour sailing will sail that day...

    The slow ferry is rarely cancelled due to bad weather. It usually sails no matter how windy it is....perhaps not the best of news either!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,559 pedigree 6


    So we're looking at windy/stormy conditions

    On the 23rd.
    screenshot_1.png

    On the 25th.
    screenshot_1.png

    On the 27th.
    screenshot_1.png

    On the 29th.
    screenshot_1.png

    And a Scandi High on the 4th Jan with a draw of cold air from Russia.
    screenshot_1.png

    Certainly not boring weather.:P


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,951 ✭✭✭ munsterlegend


    pedigree 6 wrote: »
    So we're looking at windy/stormy conditions

    On the 23rd.
    screenshot_1.png

    On the 25th.
    screenshot_1.png

    On the 27th.
    screenshot_1.png

    On the 29th.
    screenshot_1.png

    And a Scandi High on the 4th Jan with a draw of cold air from Russia.
    screenshot_1.png

    Certainly not boring weather.:P

    And the models are never wrong!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Braelynn Shapely Mice


    Lots of pretty pictures with nice colours....



    ......Can I emigrate to somewhere warm and dry for the next few weeks.....Please?;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,527 ✭✭✭ Darwin


    Met Eireann just issued an early general weather warning for the christmas period.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 9,393 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    National Weather Warnings

    STATUS YELLOW

    Weather Advisory for Ireland
    A potentially stormy spell of weather is likely later this week and over the Christmas weekend. In particular, Friday looks like bringing stormy weather, with the north and west most at risk, but the details are still uncertain at this stage.

    Issued:Monday 19 December 2016 13:00
    Valid:Thursday 22 December 2016 12:00 to Monday 26 December 2016 23:59


This discussion has been closed.
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