Storm Barbara - 23rd December 2016

pedigree 6

The Christmas Day storm!
It already looks epic from 7 days beforehand.
The Question is will it be too windy on the day for Santy and the reindeer to land safely??:P

eastmayo

Met eireann highlighted the storm for next weekend on the farming weather....extremely windy or stormy xmass eve nite into Sunday

Storm 10

Mods given the forecast for next week with the possibility of stormy conditions should we open a thread for this, delete if you don't think so

nagdefy

The timing is awful. Hopefully it's not going to become Ireland's Cyclone Tracy which occurred on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day 1974 and basically flattened Darwin, Australia. Obviously a far milder version of that forecast but there's a chance a destructive enough storm could happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy

I remember in the summer of 1988 watching a 2 part (consecutive nights) TV show on RTE on Cyclone Tracy. It has stayed with me since.

pedigree 6

nagdefy wrote: »

The timing is awful. Hopefully it's not going to become Ireland's Cyclone Tracy which occurred on Christmas Eve/Christmas Day 1974 and basically flattened Darwin, Australia. Obviously a far milder version of that forecast but there's a chance a destructive enough storm could happen.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclone_Tracy

I remember in the summer of 1988 watching a 2 part (consecutive nights) TV show on RTE on Cyclone Tracy. It has stayed with me since.

My own personal worst experience of bad wind storms has to be storm Darwin on the 12th Feb 2014. All my time farming here I've never experienced anything like it or the damage caused. It was 6 days before electricity was restored to this part of wexford.
There was trees down on all the roads (some blown over from their roots, others like big oak and beech trees snapped like twigs middle ways).
There was roofs blown off sheds everywhere. We were ok but some of the cows were calved at the time and every day since the storm we were told that electricity would be back that evening, but never happened and if you ventured in the yard it was unbearable to listen to the cows bawling at you to be milked.
Eventually we got a generator and got them milked before the power came back.

But the damage to some other farmers was unbelievable. A farmer near the mountain had their milking parlour roof blown off and it even ripped the roof panel off on his tractor. Then some neighbours had tiles and slates blown off their dwelling houses and a large section of forestry on the mountain was flattened.

So while I am intrigued by our different weather conditions, you kind of don't want to see the same damage done again as before. But looking at the conditions that spawned Darwin you can kind of see similarities to this forecasted storm.
Very Strong Jetstream - Check.
Intense cold air pool in the north atlantic - Check.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/2014StormDarwin.pdf

nagdefy

pedigree 6 wrote: »

My own personal worst experience of bad wind storms has to be storm Darwin on the 12th Feb 2014. All my time farming here I've never experienced anything like it or the damage caused. It was 6 days before electricity was restored to this part of wexford.
There was trees down on all the roads (some blown over from their roots, others like big oak and beech trees snapped like twigs middle ways).
There was roofs blown off sheds everywhere. We were ok but some of the cows were calved at the time and every day since the storm we were told that electricity would be back that evening, but never happened and if you ventured in the yard it was unbearable to listen to the cows bawling at you to be milked.
Eventually we got a generator and got them milked before the power came back.

But the damage to some other farmers was unbelievable. A farmer near the mountain had their milking parlour roof blown off and it even ripped the roof panel off on his tractor. Then some neighbours had tiles and slates blown off their dwelling houses and a large section of forestry on the mountain was flattened.

So while I am intrigued by our different weather conditions, you kind of don't want to see the same damage done again as before. But looking at the conditions that spawned Darwin you can kind of see similarities to this forecasted storm.
Very Strong Jetstream - Check.
Intense cold air pool in the north atlantic - Check.

http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/2014StormDarwin.pdf

It was something else. We were in the middle of calving too but have a suckler herd and hadn't the pressure of milk. But the usual hassles with getting water to them etc with electricity gone. At home there were 2 hours that afternoon between 3 and 5pm that i don't recall being surpassed in storm intensity. Kilkenny city declared a state of emergency.

1997 Christmas eve just about equalled it at times for me. I had a bit of misadventure bringing a mare in from a field who reared up frightened and hit me with a front foot knocking me out for an hour! It was too dangerous to go to casualty and 20 yrs ago we'd want to be half dead to go anyway.

http://met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/Dec1997_storm.PDF

Agent_47

Bring it on, Storm Barbara better be good. Peanuts, wine, candles and camera at the ready

Harry Palmr

Father Christmas better have some extra Reindeer power!

kub

What is the actual forecast?

Storm 10

kub wrote: »

What is the actual forecast?

http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/farming-weather-3260/10664004/

Meteorite58

While all eyes are on Christmas eve / day we should keep an eye for the potentially very windy/ stormy weather on Fri also now starting to come in to a more reliable timeframe ( but of course open to change ). One conciliation is it looks to pass over quickly on latest runs.

tylercollins

It can stay away until I land in Dublin midday Christmas Eve!

JanuarySnowstor

Considering the ECM and GEM, the chances of a stormy Christmas day are low.
Oddly this also decreases the chances of any flakes as the ECM is quite mild.
Next.....

Oscar Bravo

Siobhan Ryan on Radio 1 forecast there "we will probably see a few named storms before years end and we in Met Eireann are keeping a close eye on Friday at the moment"

Meteorite58

Fri looking increasingly windy







850hPa ECMWF

Storm 10

Achill Island Coastguard

*** UPDATE - Early Violent Storm/Hurricane (F11/F12) Weather Indication ***

We indicated on Friday that we could be in for a significant weather event. This prediction seems to becoming accurate. This is our forecast so far.

Gales - expected Tuesday.
Gales - expected Friday & Saturday.
Violent Storm/Hurricane (F11/12) expected Sunday - Christmas Day. If this forecast is correct expect Met Éireann to issue a RED weather warning. Sea swell is predicted to be in excess of 40 ft offshore. Please be prepared. We will give daily updates as we approach these events and upgrade or downgrade the warnings accordingly.

Meteorite58

Yikes :eek:

km79

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yikes :eek:

This is not good

goat2

Lets hope homes have gas cooking facilities in their homes, and that our homes will not be damaged, thanks for the warnings, will keep an eye on here, and watch MT,s predictions, always great.

Meteorite58

Storm 10

http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/744965/Weather-bomb-storm-Christmas-Britain-torrential-rain-gales-warning

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/571318/uk-weather-christmas-day-snow-storm-barbara

jimbobaloobob

hardly fall as snow christmas day will it?

M.T. Cranium

Quite variable on the models from day to day and from model to model, indicating that resolution of the various waves entering the Atlantic from North America are not well resolved yet. I will make sure that we have an appropriate warning thread if we reach model consensus at any point soon, the absence of this explains why there is no such thread yet.

GFS has the strongest storm depiction for 25th, GEM leads for 23rd and ECM has backed off a bit on all of its earlier storminess. Jet stream is abnormally strong at present time over eastern North America; lots of energy available to spin up a deep low over the Atlantic but models are having problems picking the right slot and speed. Energy builds to about 28th-29th so missed opportunities won't necessarily cancel this watch. Not particularly mild in the outlook period so some chance that these storms could have wintry showers at either end with mild sectors brief and passing through very quickly.

ninebeanrows

EC brings a storm across the country Friday.

Models beginning to intensify that system into powerful storm

spoonerhead

Dear storms, where have you been the last three months? You then show up when I don't want you, what a load of crap.

I am traveling with my family and a dog from Holyhead to Dublin on the Swift ferry Friday. The way it's looking I can't see that one sailing I'm just hoping the 3 hour sailing will sail that day...

highdef

spoonerhead wrote: »

I'm just hoping the 3 hour sailing will sail that day...

The slow ferry is rarely cancelled due to bad weather. It usually sails no matter how windy it is....perhaps not the best of news either!

pedigree 6

So we're looking at windy/stormy conditions

On the 23rd.


On the 25th.


On the 27th.


On the 29th.


And a Scandi High on the 4th Jan with a draw of cold air from Russia.


Certainly not boring weather.:P

munsterlegend

pedigree 6 wrote: »

So we're looking at windy/stormy conditions

On the 23rd.


On the 25th.


On the 27th.


On the 29th.


And a Scandi High on the 4th Jan with a draw of cold air from Russia.


Certainly not boring weather.:P

And the models are never wrong!

uck51js9zml2yt

Lots of pretty pictures with nice colours....



......Can I emigrate to somewhere warm and dry for the next few weeks.....Please?;)

Darwin

Met Eireann just issued an early general weather warning for the christmas period.

Oscar Bravo

National Weather Warnings

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
A potentially stormy spell of weather is likely later this week and over the Christmas weekend. In particular, Friday looks like bringing stormy weather, with the north and west most at risk, but the details are still uncertain at this stage.

Issued:Monday 19 December 2016 13:00
Valid:Thursday 22 December 2016 12:00 to Monday 26 December 2016 23:59

Oscar Bravo

very sensible from Met Eireann, a good early warning issued,even if the impact is small.

gugsy

Maybe a yellow warning for this thread too?

DOCARCH

gugsy wrote: »

Maybe a yellow warning for this thread too?

Too early...

Pretty much set that the weather is to become unsettled, but, it is too far out to have any real idea as to the detail.

fraxinus1

Although I like a good storm to liven the winter up , I am delighted to hear the danger has passed for Christmas. I remember the Christmas period storms of 1997 and 1998... no power for 4 days. Awful time. It looks like Friday will be windy but nothing that we don't experience two or three times a year in Donegal.

Sierra Oscar

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Although I like a good storm to liven the winter up , I am delighted to hear the danger has passed for Christmas. I remember the Christmas period storms of 1997 and 1998... no power for 4 days. Awful time. It looks like Friday will be windy but nothing that we don't experience two or three times a year in Donegal.

It's a 'fluid' situation at the moment, too early to call it for Christmas Day. Keep an eye on things over the next couple of days.

I remember the storm in 1997, knocked out the power where I am in North Tipp for a couple of days. We had to up sticks and celebrate Christmas with the cousins!

Oscar Bravo

certainly is, way to early to call either way at the moment.

Gonzo

hopefully we wont get this storm, the last thing anyone wants is storms and power outages during Christmas.

BuilderPlumber

fraxinus1 wrote: »

Although I like a good storm to liven the winter up , I am delighted to hear the danger has passed for Christmas. I remember the Christmas period storms of 1997 and 1998... no power for 4 days. Awful time. It looks like Friday will be windy but nothing that we don't experience two or three times a year in Donegal.

I remember 1997 and 1998 as if it were yesterday. Awful time indeed. 1997 was Christmas Eve and 1998 was St Stephen's Day. IIRC the worst of the wind did not last all that long but it was savage and extremely destructive for about an hour or 2. 1997 was in general a very weird year of weather. There was 5 days nonstop (and I mean nonstop) rain in August and it was a mild, wet, windy and generally nasty winter.

2013/2014 saw a return of this awful kind of weather and I remember a nasty but not as destructive storm on St Stephen's Day of 2013. This was part of a 2 month period of wet, windy and often stormy weather from mid December 2013 to mid February 2014. The worst event of this period was Darwin, the worst storm since the ones in 1997/1998. This was on the 12th February and was one of the last events of this awful period of weather.

Last winter was full of nasty storms across a period from late October 2015 right through January of 2016. Eva and Frank were the ones around Christmas but they were not as bad as the ones from 1997 or 1998 or Darwin.

Let's hope we don't get anything like this. A problem seems to be that when this weather starts, it does not know when to stop! While there seems to be no real danger for Christmas, one could get a succession of these events for the 2 months after Christmas. Heaven forbid, a blizzard could happen at some stage if wind and snow met. I don't ever remember a blizzard but people who were around in the late 1970s remember one from around February of 1978.

tylercollins

How would this affect flights into Dublin on Saturday? I'm due to land midday roughly...

AND if the flight got redirected, what airport would be an option?

Cantona's Collars

tylercollins wrote: »

How would this affect flights into Dublin on Saturday? I'm due to land midday roughly...

AND if the flight got redirected, what airport would be an option?

Hopefully you'll land midday smoothly:p

tylercollins

zerks wrote: »

Hopefully you'll land midday smoothly:p

I'm not bothered by a bump landing, it's just the getting home part after flying from Ivalo > Helsinki > Dusseldorf > Dublin :pac:

Rebelbrowser

On the 12z gfs the storm on the 23rd basically misses the entire country to the north.

Rebelbrowser

The Christmas day storm is still clipping the NW (nothing too strong) on the 12z gfs but it will be little more than breezy in my part of the world....

f course the ecm may yet stay as was on its last run...

sjb25

Gonzo wrote: »

hopefully we wont get this storm, the last thing anyone wants is storms and power outages during Christmas.

I'm working Christmas Eve and day 12 hr shifts with a generater in work.... so let it blow the place down bah humbug

Ha I joke hopefully won't be to bad I'm working but don't want to be busy and if it's stormy il be busy

JCX BXC

tylercollins wrote: »

How would this affect flights into Dublin on Saturday? I'm due to land midday roughly...

AND if the flight got redirected, what airport would be an option?

Main wind events appear to be Friday and Sunday, Saturday appears to be the lull in the middle.

It all depends on wind direction, if its directly westerly/northwesterly, Dublin will cope fine, if the wind is a very strong and gusty southwesterly, you'll likely be diverted to Shannon or Belfast, possibly Cork. Sometime flights divert to Liverpool and Manchester, but that's usually Ryanair once Shannon gets full.

tylercollins

JCX BXC wrote: »

Main wind events appear to be Friday and Sunday, Saturday appears to be the lull in the middle.

It all depends on wind direction, if its directly westerly/northwesterly, Dublin will cope fine, if the wind is a very strong and gusty southwesterly, you'll likely be diverted to Shannon or Belfast, possibly Cork. Sometime flights divert to Liverpool and Manchester, but that's usually Ryanair once Shannon gets full.

Thanks man! Here's hoping Belfast as it's closer to home for me :pac:

Burts Bee

Absolutely delighted to hear about Friday's possible storm. Am flying cork to Newcastle in a turbo prop, terrifying in itself but add strong winds to the mix and I'm fearing for the amount of zanex I may have to injest....

goat2

which counties will get the brunt of this

JCX BXC

goat2 wrote: »

which counties will get the brunt of this

Clare, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Donegal by my guess, secondary then probably Cork, Kerry, Limerick, Leitrim, Roscommon.

JanuarySnowstor

I think met eireann must still be viewing yesterday's charts.
Over reacted, it's now looking windy and nothing more